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Environmental Protection and Natural Resources
Volumen 34 (2023): Edición 4 (December 2023)
Acceso abierto
PM
2.5
emission from the coal combustion in the Polish residential sector. State and outlooks
Damian Zasina
Damian Zasina
y
Iwona Kargulewicz
Iwona Kargulewicz
| 31 dic 2023
Environmental Protection and Natural Resources
Volumen 34 (2023): Edición 4 (December 2023)
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Publicado en línea:
31 dic 2023
Páginas:
21 - 29
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.2478/oszn-2023-0019
Palabras clave
Air emissions
,
PM
,
emission factors
,
uncertainty
,
projections
© 2023 Damian Zasina et al., published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.
Figure 1.
Coal consumption in Polish households 1990–2018. Time series: EUROSTAT – derived from [EUROSTAT 2020], HIGH, REF, LOW – based on [Stala–Szlugaj 2017]
Figure 2.
The time series of the PM2.5 emission factor from coal combustion in Polish households 1990–2018 [NCEM 2020]
Figure 3.
Data for 2018 [NCEM 2020]. (a) ‘energy mix’ – structure of energy obtained due to combustion of fuels in Polish households (b) ‘fuel mix’ – structure of the PM2.5 emission generated by particular fuels
Figure 4.
PM2.5 emissions from coal combustion in Polish households 1990–2018. Time series: LRTAP [NCEM 2020], NECP REF, NECP PEK [MSA 2019]
Figure 5.
The PM2.5 emission factor from coal combustion in Polish households obtained performing Monte Carlo simulation [kg/TJ]: 2.5th percentile – 138.6 (blue), median – 291.5 (green), 97.5th percentile – 469.3 (red)
Figure 6.
The recalculated time series of the PM2.5 emission factor from coal combustion in Polish households 1990–2018
Figure 7.
PM2.5 emissions and projections from coal combustion in Polish households 1990–2040. Time series: NEW EF – New estimation calculated simulated emission factor, OLD EF – old emission factor – official submission [NCEM 2020], NECP REF – official PM2.5 emission projection – reference scenario, and NECP PEK – official PM2.5 emission projection – climate policy scenario
The selected statistics of the simulated PM2.5 emission factor from the coal combustion in Polish households [kg/TJ]
x
¯
\overline x
σ
x
Percentiles:
2.5
th
10
th
25
th
*
50
th
**
75
th
***
90
th
97.5
th
295.1
84.6
138.6
190.6
236.4
291.5
349.8
406.3
469.3
Projected coal consumption in Polish households for 2015–2030 [109 kg]
Scenario
2015
2020
2025
2030
HIGH
9.8
*
8.5
7.8
7.7
REF
9.8
*
8.4
7.4
7.0
LOW
9.8
*
8.2
7.0
6.3
Parameters used for the estimation of the PM2.5 emission factor from hard coal combustion in Polish households
Parameter
Distribution
Range
References
δ
[−]
–
0.9
[
Huang et al. 2014
]
A
[%]
N
(
μ
= 5.7;
σ
= 1.5)
[2.6; 11.0]
[
Wierzchowski, Pyka 2015
;
GIG 2016
]
Q
PL
t
[kJ/kg]
N
(
μ
= 26,000;
σ
= 1,500)
[21,000; 31,000]
*
Q
IMP
t
[kJ/kg]
N
(
μ
= 26,000;
σ
= 750)
[23,000; 29,000]
**
u
p
[%]
N
(
μ
= 15,
σ
= 1.5)
[10; 20]
[
Stala–Szlugaj 2011
]
η
0
[%]
–
1
[
Stala–Szlugaj 2011
]
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