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Dynamics of the African swine fever spread in Poland

Łukasz Bocian
Łukasz Bocian
, 
Maciej Frant
Maciej Frant
, 
Anna Ziętek-Barszcz
Anna Ziętek-Barszcz
, 
Krzysztof Niemczuk
Krzysztof Niemczuk
 y 
Anna Szczotka-Bochniarz
Anna Szczotka-Bochniarz
   | 10 dic 2022
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Publicado en línea: 10 dic 2022
Páginas: 459 - 471
Recibido: 11 ago 2022
Aceptado: 28 nov 2022
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/jvetres-2022-0067
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© 2022 Ł. Bocian et al. published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Fig. 1

Number of wild boars identified positive for African swine fever in Poland by year
Number of wild boars identified positive for African swine fever in Poland by year

Fig. 2

Number of ASF outbreaks detected in domestic pigs in Poland by year
Number of ASF outbreaks detected in domestic pigs in Poland by year

Fig. 3

African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks in domestic pigs (blue) and wild boars (red), and restriction zones (as of 31/12/2021). Outbreaks in 2021 are shown in intense colours, and outbreaks in 2014–2020 in pastel colours. NUTS – nomenclature of territorial units for statistics
African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks in domestic pigs (blue) and wild boars (red), and restriction zones (as of 31/12/2021). Outbreaks in 2021 are shown in intense colours, and outbreaks in 2014–2020 in pastel colours. NUTS – nomenclature of territorial units for statistics

Fig. 4

The progress of African swine fever (ASF) in domestic pigs (blue) and wild boars (red) in the years 2014–2021. Outbreaks in a given year are shown in intense colours, and outbreaks in previous years in pastel colours. NUTS – nomenclature of territorial units for statistics
The progress of African swine fever (ASF) in domestic pigs (blue) and wild boars (red) in the years 2014–2021. Outbreaks in a given year are shown in intense colours, and outbreaks in previous years in pastel colours. NUTS – nomenclature of territorial units for statistics

Fig. 5

Areas of African swine fever (ASF) occurrence in the years 2014–2021 shown as zones within 10 km of the outbreaks in domestic pigs and wild boars. NUTS – nomenclature of territorial units for statistics
Areas of African swine fever (ASF) occurrence in the years 2014–2021 shown as zones within 10 km of the outbreaks in domestic pigs and wild boars. NUTS – nomenclature of territorial units for statistics

Fig. 6

Annual areas of African swine fever (ASF) occurrence in domestic pigs and wild boars layered over a common map (oldest layer at the top). NUTS – nomenclature of territorial units for statistics
Annual areas of African swine fever (ASF) occurrence in domestic pigs and wild boars layered over a common map (oldest layer at the top). NUTS – nomenclature of territorial units for statistics

Fig. 7

The combined surface area of the 10-km radius buffer zones around the points where African swine fever occurred over the years in percentages of the surface area of Poland
The combined surface area of the 10-km radius buffer zones around the points where African swine fever occurred over the years in percentages of the surface area of Poland

Fig. 8

Scatterplots for Pearson’s correlation between the year and the surface area of the African swine fever occurrence zone: a) single-year area for outbreaks in domestic pigs and wild boars; b) multiple-year cumulative area for outbreaks in domestic pigs and wild boars; c) multiple-year cumulative area for outbreaks in wild boars only
Scatterplots for Pearson’s correlation between the year and the surface area of the African swine fever occurrence zone: a) single-year area for outbreaks in domestic pigs and wild boars; b) multiple-year cumulative area for outbreaks in domestic pigs and wild boars; c) multiple-year cumulative area for outbreaks in wild boars only

Fig. 9

a) Ratio of the sum of African swine fever (ASF)-positive wild boars and ASF outbreaks in domestic pigs in a given year to the surface area of 10-km-radius buffer zones around the points of these events (units/km2) – green line. b) Ratio of the number of ASF-positive wild boars in a given year to the cumulative area (from the beginning of 2014) within a radius of 10 km from the sites of ASF outbreaks in wild boars (units/km2) – orange line
a) Ratio of the sum of African swine fever (ASF)-positive wild boars and ASF outbreaks in domestic pigs in a given year to the surface area of 10-km-radius buffer zones around the points of these events (units/km2) – green line. b) Ratio of the number of ASF-positive wild boars in a given year to the cumulative area (from the beginning of 2014) within a radius of 10 km from the sites of ASF outbreaks in wild boars (units/km2) – orange line

Fig. 10

Comparison of the African swine fever (ASF) occurrence areas (10-km zones around the outbreaks) between 2020 (green) and 2021 (beige). The common area is marked in grey
Comparison of the African swine fever (ASF) occurrence areas (10-km zones around the outbreaks) between 2020 (green) and 2021 (beige). The common area is marked in grey

Fig. 11

50-km buffer from African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks in cumulative periods of 2014–2020 vs. 2014–2021. Pink shows the area for 2014–2020 (it is also the common part for both periods, i.e. for the buffer zones drawn at the ends of 2020 and 2021). Light brown represents the buffer surface area increase in 2021. NUTS – nomenclature of territorial units for statistics
50-km buffer from African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks in cumulative periods of 2014–2020 vs. 2014–2021. Pink shows the area for 2014–2020 (it is also the common part for both periods, i.e. for the buffer zones drawn at the ends of 2020 and 2021). Light brown represents the buffer surface area increase in 2021. NUTS – nomenclature of territorial units for statistics

Fig. 12

100-km buffer from African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks in cumulative periods of 2014–2020 vs. 2014–2021. Yellow shows the area for 2014–2020 (it is also the common part for both periods, i.e. for the buffer zones drawn at the ends of 2020 and 2021). Light green represents the buffer surface area increase in 2021. NUTS – nomenclature of territorial units for statistics
100-km buffer from African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks in cumulative periods of 2014–2020 vs. 2014–2021. Yellow shows the area for 2014–2020 (it is also the common part for both periods, i.e. for the buffer zones drawn at the ends of 2020 and 2021). Light green represents the buffer surface area increase in 2021. NUTS – nomenclature of territorial units for statistics

Shooting of wild boars in Poland (37)

Hunting year (from April 1 to March 31) Hunted wild boars (in thousand head)
2000/2001 93
2005/2006 138
2008/2009 226
2009/2010 218
2010/2011 233
2011/2012 196
2012/2013 240
2013/2014 242
2014/2015 291
2015/2016 342
2016/2017 312
2017/2018 341
2018/2019 266
2019/2020 332
2020/2021 249

The combined surface area of all 10-km radius buffer zones around African swine fever outbreaks (in km2)

Year Outbreaks in domestic pigs and wild boars – single-year area Outbreaks in domestic pigs and wild boars – multiple-year cumulative area Outbreaks only in wild boars – multiple-year cumulative area
2014 1,499.6 1,499.6 1,499.6
2015 3,021.7 3,040.6 3,040.6
2016 7,664.6 8,866.7 6,972.0
2017 20,276.4 23,200.5 21,720.7
2018 42,299.1 47,269.9 45,014.8
2019 62,746.2 75,356.9 73,542.8
2020 80,003.1 98,945.1 96,602.8
2021 83,892.4 124,952.2 119,234.8
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Life Sciences, Molecular Biology, Microbiology and Virology, other, Medicine, Veterinary Medicine
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