Shelf-Life Prediction of Citrus Lemon Using a Multivariate Accelerated Shelf-Life Testing (MASLT) Approach

The shelf life of agricultural products is characterized by several quality parameters simultaneously. Estimating the shelf life using the multivariate accelerated shelf-life testing (MASLT) approach is expected to provide a more accurate shelf-life prediction. This research aims to examine the effect of temperature storage on lemon fruit quality and predict their shelf life with the MASLT approach. A total of 21 lemons for each treatment (storage temperatures) were washed and stored at 25, 35, and 45 °C. Changes in the quality of lemons were observed every day for 7 days, including moisture content, weight loss, firmness, total soluble solids, and color. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to simplify many experimental lemon quality parameters to form a new coordinate system with maximum variance through linear transformation to form a new coordinate system with maximum variance. The results showed that 91.3% of the variance of all observational data could be explained by the first principal component (PC₁). Multivariate kinetics of quality parameter changes following a zero-order reaction. The plot of ln k_m against 1/T shows a multivariate activation energy value (E_a) of 62.99 kJ·mol⁻¹ with a pre-exponential factor (k₀) of 3.87 × 10¹⁰ PC₁ score per day. The reaction acceleration factor (Q₁₀) based on storage temperatures of 35 °C and 45 °C is 2.17. The results of the predicted shelf life at cold temperatures (10 °C) and room temperature (25 °C) were 60.0 days and 18.8 days, respectively.