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Unemployment transitions and the role of minimum wage: From pre-crisis to crisis and recovery

Eirini Andriopoulou
Eirini Andriopoulou
 y 
Alexandros Karakitsios
Alexandros Karakitsios
   | 19 abr 2022
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Publicado en línea: 19 abr 2022
Páginas: -
Aceptado: 18 oct 2021
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/izajolp-2022-0002
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© 2022 Eirini Andriopoulou et al., published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Graph 1

The evolution of real minimum wage and GDP growth rate (q-o-q) in Greece for the period 2004–2019.Data source: Hellenic Statistical Authority, Ministry of Labour.
The evolution of real minimum wage and GDP growth rate (q-o-q) in Greece for the period 2004–2019.Data source: Hellenic Statistical Authority, Ministry of Labour.

Graph 2

Spell analysis desriptive statistics (balanced versus unbalanced panel).Data source: Hellenic Statistical Authority, LFS, 2004–2019.
Spell analysis desriptive statistics (balanced versus unbalanced panel).Data source: Hellenic Statistical Authority, LFS, 2004–2019.

Graph 3

Total quarters in unemployment split in three periods (balanced versus unbalanced panel).Data source: Hellenic Statistical Authority, LFS, 2004–2019.
Total quarters in unemployment split in three periods (balanced versus unbalanced panel).Data source: Hellenic Statistical Authority, LFS, 2004–2019.

Graph 4

Average marginal effects of entering and exiting unemployment based on gender and marital status by age (total period).Data source: Hellenic Statistical Authority, LFS, 2004–2019.
Average marginal effects of entering and exiting unemployment based on gender and marital status by age (total period).Data source: Hellenic Statistical Authority, LFS, 2004–2019.

Graph 5

Average marginal effects of entering and exiting unemployment based on gender and marital status by educational level (total period).Data source: Hellenic Statistical Authority, LFS, 2004–2019.
Average marginal effects of entering and exiting unemployment based on gender and marital status by educational level (total period).Data source: Hellenic Statistical Authority, LFS, 2004–2019.

Graph 6

Average marginal effects of entering and exiting unemployment for different regions (total period).Data source: Hellenic Statistical Authority, LFS, 2004 – 2019.
Average marginal effects of entering and exiting unemployment for different regions (total period).Data source: Hellenic Statistical Authority, LFS, 2004 – 2019.

Graph 7

Average marginal effects of entering and exiting unemployment based on nationality by age (total period).Data source: Hellenic Statistical Authority, LFS, 2004–2019.
Average marginal effects of entering and exiting unemployment based on nationality by age (total period).Data source: Hellenic Statistical Authority, LFS, 2004–2019.

Logit analysis of unemployment entries (transitions from employment to unemployment)

Dependent var: Probability to enter unemployment Specification 1 Specification 2
Total Period Period 1 Period 2 Period 3 Total Period Period 1 Period 2 Period 3
Minwage (% dif) 1.00 1.05 0.98*** 0.98 0.99 1.06 0.99 0.95
Minwage (% dif) # age group (15–24) 1.01 1.01 1.00 1.03
Minwage (% dif) # age group (25–34) 1.01 1.01 1.00 1.09*
Minwage (% dif) # age group (35–49) 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.02
Age groups—baseline: age group 50+
Age group 15–24 3.81*** 3.58*** 5.96 4.12*** 3.81*** 3.77 5.19*** 4.11***
Age group 25–34 2.63*** 2.61*** 3.62*** 2.55*** 2.63*** 2.72*** 3.25*** 2.51***
Age group 35–49 1.85*** 1.98*** 2.16*** 1.58*** 1.85*** 2.08*** 2.04*** 1.58***
Gender—baseline: male
Female 2.24*** 2.58*** 2.30*** 2.28*** 2.24*** 2.71*** 2.13*** 2.28***
Marital status—baseline: non-married
Married 0.57*** 0.45*** 0.71* 0.46*** 0.57*** 0.44*** 0.74 0.46***
Female # Married 0.78*** 1.01 0.58*** 1.04 0.78*** 1.01 0.61*** 1.04
Educational level—baseline: Upper Secondary
Less than primary/primary 0.66 0.42*** 0.82 0.67 0.66 0.41 0.84 0.66
Lower secondary 1.31 1.38 1.63 0.82 1.31 1.41 1.54 0.82
Post-secondary 0.15*** 0.20*** 0.11*** 0.11*** 0.15*** 0.19*** 0.14* 0.11***
Tertiary 0.78*** 0.64** 0.99 0.57*** 0.78*** 0.64*** 0.99 0.57***
Post-tertiary education 0.82*** 0.69*** 0.89 0.65*** 0.82** 0.68** 0.90 0.65***
Nationality—baseline: Greek
Immigrant 2.11*** 1.06 2.38*** 3.00*** 2.11*** 1.07 2.20*** 3.01***
Regions—baseline: Attica
Eastern Macedonia and Thrace 3.40*** 4.76*** 3.66*** 2.51*** 3.40*** 5.08*** 3.30*** 2.52***
Central Macedonia 3.04*** 3.82*** 2.59*** 4.41*** 3.04*** 4.04*** 2.42*** 4.41***
Western Macedonia 8.32*** 9.30*** 7.69*** 13.62*** 8.32*** 10.26*** 6.36*** 13.64***
Epirus 2.52*** 2.45*** 2.66*** 2.75*** 2.52*** 2.54*** 2.48*** 2.75***
Thessaly 3.61*** 3.99*** 3.68*** 3.92*** 3.61*** 4.22*** 3.31*** 3.92***
Ionian Islands 12.12*** 24.65*** 10.79*** 12.22*** 12.12*** 28.55*** 8.73*** 12.25***
Western Greece 2.71*** 2.15*** 2.70*** 4.05*** 2.71*** 2.22*** 2.50*** 4.05***
Sterea Ellas 3.05*** 5.32*** 2.66*** 2.52*** 3.05*** 5.71*** 2.48*** 2.52***
Peloponnese 2.13*** 2.58*** 1.85 2.62*** 2.13*** 2.67*** 1.79*** 2.63***
Northern Aegean 4.22*** 2.96*** 3.13*** 9.91*** 4.22*** 3.09*** 2.87*** 9.92***
Southern Aegean 14.66*** 23.06*** 15.13*** 14.22*** 14.66*** 26.55*** 12.04*** 14.25***
Crete 8.45*** 9.38*** 9.77*** 9.14*** 8.45*** 10.32*** 7.95*** 9.16***
Quarter—baseline q2
q1 2.32*** 1.84** 2.05*** 2.90*** 2.32*** 1.88*** 2.00*** 2.93***
q3 1.02 0.86 1.15 0.96 1.02 0.84 1.19 0.97
q4 2.12*** 1.99*** 1.88*** 3.28*** 2.12*** 2.01*** 1.89*** 3.29***
GDP (% dif qoq) 0.94*** 1.13*** 1.01 0.96 0.94*** 1.14*** 1.01 0.96
_cons 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
sigma_u 2.83*** 2.95*** 3.07*** 2.99*** 2.83*** 3.15*** 2.74*** 2.99***
Rho 0.71*** 0.73*** 0.74*** 0.73*** 0.71*** 0.75*** 0.69*** 0.73***
AIC 124,755 31,267 66,365 26,344 124,760 31,258 66,344 26,345
BIC 125,096 31,577 66,649 26,638 125,136 31,590 66,694 26,669

Logit analysis of unemployment exits (transitions from unemployment to employment)

Dependent var: Probability to exit unemployment Specification 1 Specification 2
Total Period Period 1 Period 2 Period 3 Total Period Period 1 Period 2 Period 3
Minwage (% dif) 1.04*** 1.07*** 1.03*** 1.04*** 1.02*** 1.02 1.03** 1.05**
Minwage (% dif) # age group (15–24) 1.03** 1.08*** 1.01 1.00
Minwage (% dif) # age group (25–34) 1.02 1.05* 1.01 0.99
Minwage (% dif) # age group (35–49) 1.01 1.05* 1.01 0.99
Age groups—baseline: age group 50+
Age group 15–24 1.51*** 1.01 1.35*** 1.76*** 1.52*** 0.99 1.36*** 1.76***
Age group 25–34 1.71*** 1.20* 1.61*** 1.91*** 1.71*** 1.19* 1.62*** 1.92***
Age group 35–49 1.48*** 1.16* 1.49*** 1.60*** 1.48*** 1.15 1.50*** 1.61***
Gender — baseline: male
Female 0.71*** 0.50*** 0.76*** 0.92 0.71*** 0.50*** 0.76*** 0.92
Marital status—baseline: non-married
Married 1.72*** 1.74*** 1.62*** 1.89*** 1.72*** 1.74*** 1.62*** 1.89***
Female # Married 0.54*** 0.54*** 0.53*** 0.49*** 0.54*** 0.54*** 0.53*** 0.49***
Educational level—baseline: Upper Secondary
Less than primary/primary 1.30*** 1.56*** 1.25* 1.10 1.30*** 1.56*** 1.25* 1.10
Lower secondary 1.31 2.57*** 0.99 0.28* 1.31 2.56*** 0.99 0.28*
Post-secondary 1.10 1.29 1.02 0.52 1.10 1.28 1.02 0.52
Tertiary 1.33*** 1.34** 1.37*** 1.24** 1.33** 1.34** 1.37** 1.25**
Post-tertiary education 1.12** 1.42** 1.08** 1.00 1.12** 1.42** 1.08** 1.00
Nationality—baseline: Greek
Immigrant 1.91*** 1.98*** 1.91*** 2.36*** 1.91*** 1.98*** 1.91*** 2.36***
Regions—baseline: Attica
Eastern Macedonia and Thrace 2.54*** 2.17*** 2.96*** 2.28*** 2.55*** 2.17*** 2.96*** 2.28***
Central Macedonia 2.30*** 2.11*** 2.16*** 2.74*** 2.30*** 2.11*** 2.16*** 2.74***
Western Macedonia 1.79*** 1.30* 1.87*** 2.13*** 1.79*** 1.29* 1.87*** 2.14***
Epirus 2.11*** 1.05 2.84*** 2.39*** 2.11*** 1.05 2.84*** 2.39***
Thessaly 3.00*** 1.77*** 3.87*** 3.04*** 3.00*** 1.77*** 3.87*** 3.04***
Ionian Islands 26.76*** 11.17*** 22.41*** 67.17*** 26.74*** 11.14*** 22.38*** 67.25***
Western Greece 2.31*** 1.67*** 2.88*** 2.25*** 2.31*** 1.67*** 2.88*** 2.26***
Sterea Ellas 2.41*** 2.32*** 2.17*** 2.87*** 2.41*** 2.32*** 2.17*** 2.87***
Peloponnese 2.51*** 2.02*** 2.51*** 3.02*** 2.51*** 2.02*** 2.52*** 3.02***
Northern Aegean 3.37*** 2.46*** 3.55*** 4.73*** 3.37*** 2.45*** 3.55*** 4.74***
Southern Aegean 21.05*** 16.01*** 19.25*** 27.92*** 21.06*** 15.92*** 19.25*** 27.91***
Crete 10.45*** 11.82*** 7.79*** 15.58*** 10.44*** 11.80*** 7.79*** 15.58***
Quarter—baseline q2
q1 0.36*** 0.38*** 0.36*** 0.30*** 0.36*** 0.38*** 0.36*** 0.30***
q3 0.76*** 0.58*** 0.82*** 0.72*** 0.76*** 0.58*** 0.82*** 0.72***
q4 0.55*** 0.57*** 0.58*** 0.49*** 0.55*** 0.58*** 0.58*** 0.49***
GDP (% dif qoq) 1.19*** 1.11*** 1.07*** 0.99 1.19*** 1.11*** 1.07*** 0.99
_cons 0.01*** 0.04*** 0.01*** 0.01*** 0.01*** 0.04*** 0.01*** 0.01***
sigma_u 1.50*** 1.15*** 1.49*** 1.67*** 1.50*** 1.15*** 1.49*** 1.6685
Rho 0.40*** 0.29*** 0.40*** 0.46*** 0.41*** 0.29*** 0.40*** 0.4583
AIC 95,863 25,065 46,559 23,429 95,861 25,059 46,564 23,435
BIC 96,182 25,333 46,859 23,706 96,211 25,353 46,893 23,739
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Business and Economics, Political Economics, Microeconomics, Macroecomics, Economic Policy, Mathematics and Statistics for Economists, Econometrics
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