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Technology, routinization and wage inequality: gender differences in the case of Uruguay


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Introduction

The rapid development of new information and communication technologies and its increasing use on day to day occupational tasks has influenced labor market conditions and wages around the world. Until the nineties, there was a major consensus in the economic literature that technology was skill-biased and therefore contributed to increase inequality. However, in the nineties, labor markets of industrialized economies experienced polarization of wages and employment, which contradicted the traditional hypothesis of a permanent increase in inequality among skilled and unskilled workers due to technological progress (Autor and Dorn (2013)).

See Autor et al. (2003, 2008); Goos and Manning (2007); Antonczyk et al. (2009); Goos et al. (2009, 2011); Dorn (2009); Michaels et al. (2014); Jung and Mercenier (2010); Antonczyk et al. (2010); Firpo et al. (2011b).

As an explanation to the observed U-shape distribution of wage changes Autor et al. (2003) (ALM hypothesis henceforth) proposed the ‘routinization’ hypothesis, relating this ‘polarization’ to the non-neutrality of technological progress, which affects different occupational tasks in diverse ways.

The polarization pattern has been extensively documented for the OCDE countries, but has been less evident in developing economies (Das and Hilgenstock (2018), Hallward-Driemeier and Nayyar (2017)). Indeed, the evolution of wage distribution in Latin-American countries during the 2000s contradicts the prediction of increasing returns to skills along the whole range of the distribution derived from the skilled biased technological change hypothesis. During the nineties the raise in returns to tertiary education was in line with the hypothesis that information and communication technologies complement the productivity of tasks performed mostly by highly educated workers. However, during the 2000s, after a decade of increasing inequality in labor earnings, Latin-American labor markets, including the Uruguayan one, have assisted to a sharp decline in inequality of wages mainly due to a reduction in the returns to skills and in particular the return to secondary education (de la Torre (2012)).

As argued by Hallward-Driemeier and Nayyar (2017), impacts may differ across developing economies, since the pace of change is uneven and opportunities remain in certain sub-sectors to pursue production with existing technologies and use of lower-skilled workers. However, rising routine exposures in these economies implies that currently labor-intensive industries may be getting increasingly exposed to technological disruptions, with potential for significant labor displacement.

ALM’s hypothesis has also been inspected in the strand of the literature that analyze gender inequality in labor markets. Petrongolo and Ronchi (2020) highlight that the introduction of new technologies has progressively shifted labor requirements from physical to intellectual tasks- whereby largely compensating the female disadvantages in physically demanding jobs -. Besides, women may retain comparative advantages in services, innate or acquired, related to the more intensive use of communication and interpersonal skills, which are valuable in the provision of services and cannot be easily automated. In fact, they find differential employment polarization across gender for the United States and the United Kingdom. A fact that was also recently emphasized by Cerina et al. (2021). How did these changes affected the gender wage gap.

Considering the differences documented on developed and developing countries as well as the differences between genders, the goal of this paper is to quantify the contribution of the technology content of tasks to the distribution of male and female wages in Uruguay and test ALM’s routinization hypothesis. We are particularly interested in addressing the following questions: To what extent did the technology task content of occupations contribute to changes on the distribution of wages in Uruguay between 2005 and 2015? Was the change in wage distribution due to changes in labor attributes of individual or to their returns? Given that males and females are heterogeneously distributed among occupations, and not equally pay for similar jobs, did technology have different effects on their relative distribution of wages? How did these changes affect the gender gap?

To answer these questions we follow Firpo et al. (2011b). First, using O*NET data we construct two indexes of tasks content of occupations to capture the potential effect of technological change on the wage distribution. Then we incorporate these indexes into the analysis, and estimate unconditional quantile effects using the recentered influence function (RIF) regression approach of Firpo et al. (2011a, 2018). We decompose the RIF to quantify the contribution of technology to overall changes in the unconditional distribution of wages between 2005 and 2015 as well as its contribution to changes in the gender wage gap. To perform our analysis we use multiple stochastic imputation techniques to address the issue of the selection bias that emerges because of the difference in males and females employment rates.

The main contribution of this paper is to analyze the effects of technology on the gender wage gap and its changes over time, using a task-based approach and controlling for selection bias. For the latter purpose, we perform multiple stochastic imputation techniques, which is an innovation with respect to previous work. Another innovative feature of our work is to rigorously decompose the change in the gender wage gap into composition and structure effects. So, we add new evidence to understand the evolution of the gender wage gap and how technology influences it. Additionally, we compare the effects of technology on the change in male and female wages. Furthermore, we contribute to the literature of the routinization hypothesis as an explanation to changes in the distribution of wages by testing it in the case of a small emerging economy.

The paper is organized as follows. Section II, summarizes the main findings in the literature. In Section III we present the methodology. In section IV we describe the data used as well as the construction of the task content measures. In section V, we report the RIF - Regression estimates and the decomposition of wages and changes in inequality. Further, in section VI we concentrate on the gender wage gap and its change over time. Finally we conclude in Section VII.

Literature Review

A general theoretical framework regarding the task-based model to explain certain empirical patterns observed in the last decades in most developed countries can be found in Acemoglu and Autor (2011). They developed a Ricardian model of the labor market based on the task content of jobs and ALM’s ‘routinization’ hypothesis to explain the effect of technological change on wage inequality. This model allows the endogenous allocation of skill groups across tasks and workers across skill groups. In this context, technical change can affect the productivity of different types of workers in all tasks, but also in specific tasks, thus changing the comparative advantage of the different types of workers with low, medium or high skills. As the model distinguishes between tasks and skills, it treats skills and technologies as offering competing inputs for accomplishing various tasks, and the final use of each input to perform a certain task depends on its costs and comparative advantage. Therefore, the relative wages of low, medium and high skilled workers are determined by relative supplies and tasks allocations.

The skill biased technological change hypothesis fits as a especial case of Acemoglu and Autor’s task based model, while in the first case a factor-augmenting technical progress always increases all wages, in the second one it can reduce the wage of certain groups. Thus, technological change could explain why wages in the middle of the distribution fell relative to wages at the upper and the bottom end of the distribution.

Empirically, several studies have found evidence to support ALM’s routinization hypothesis in developed countries. Using information regarding tasks involved in different occupations, Autor et al. (2003), Firpo et al. (2011a) and Autor and Dorn (2013) find evidence that technological change, and automation in particular, helps to explain the polarization of US labor market over the nineties. Similar patterns are also explained in Michaels et al. (2014) who test ALM’s ICT-based polarization hypothesis for 11 industrial economies 9 European countries, US and Japan for the period 1980 – 2004. Likewise Goos et al. (2009, 2011), describe labor market polarization for several OECD countries in the nineties, and find evidence that the routinization hypothesis is the main factor to explain the heaps observed in the employment structure. Also Oesch and Rodriguez Menes (2010), analyzing the occupational change in Britain, Germany, Spain and Switzerland over de last two decades find a U-shaped outline of job creation which is consistent with the routinization hypothesis: massive occupational upgrading that matches with educational expansion in parallel with a decline of mid-range occupations relative to those at the bottom. Although it seems that technology is a better substitute for average-paid clerical and manufacturing jobs than for low-end service employment, they find that wage setting institutions play an important role in country differences in low-paid service job creation, channeling technological change into more or less polarized patterns.

Like industrialized economies Uruguay experienced a growing inequality process in wage distribution during the nineties and first years of the 2000s. Most studies have attributed this rise in inequality to increasing returns to education (Vigorito (1994) and Gradin and Rossi (2000, 2006)). Also, Alves et al. (2009), using data for a 1981 to 2007, find that the evolution of inequality, as well as its determinants, were different at the upper and at the lower end of the wage distribution. For wages above the median of the distribution the increase in inequality took place mainly during the nineties and it was due to increasing returns to observed characteristics, especially to education. On the other hand, at the lower end the increase in inequality was explained by changes in returns to unobserved characteristics. More recent studies analyze the impact of other variable to changes in wage distribution during the first decade of the 2000s. For instance, Amarante et al. (2016) apply the Firpo et al. (2009, 2018) decomposition method to study the role of formalization in the labor market over the evolution of wages for 2001–2013.

They find significant evidence that formalization together with a large impact of the returns to education contributed to reduce wage inequality. Using the same decomposition methodology, Yapor (2018) studies the effect of increases in minimum wages and the implementation of a progressive tax reform in wage inequality during 2005 and 2015. He finds a reduction in wage inequality and that these policies affected returns to schooling, although the most educated workers were able to, at least partially, mitigate the redistributive effect of the tax reform.

Regarding employment creation, Espino (2011) finds that for the period 2001–2009 the most dynamic occupations were those requiring skills at the extremes of the distribution; i.e. primary school or tertiary level, which is in line with polarization as observed in developed countries. However, like for other developing countries, based on a task approach, Apella and Zunino (2017) find only a very incipient process of polarization of the labor force in Uruguay between 1995 and 2015. Moreover, as well as Isabella et al. (2017) and Apella et al. (2020) they find that changes occurred in terms of the content of tasks performed by workers had had no impact on the distribution of labor income. Indeed, these studies find that routine cognitive task had maintained their relative importance in the combination of tasks performed by workers in their occupations although, they do find an increase in the relative importance of cognitive task in detriment of manual tasks. For the period 2000 to 2015, Isabella et al. (2017) highlight other important changes in Uruguay’s labor market such as, the increase of women participation, significant changes between economic sectors in employment share and the increase in workers education levels. Regarding differences between genders they find than men are employed in occupations with a greater intensity of manual tasks. Furthermore, while female participation in cognitive tasks, specially non routine ones, increased during the period, men share in this kind of tasks kept relatively stable. What is more, from a prospective point of view, they find that women present a smaller risk of automation than men, especially in lower skill employments.

For OCDE countries Petrongolo and Ronchi (2020) and Olivetti and Petrongolo (2016) discusses some of the leading views on the rise in female employment and wages, involving both gender specific and gender neutral forces, and the remaining gender gaps in most countries labor markets. They find evidence of the importance of the growth in service jobs to explain the polarization of employment and the wage gaps. Concluding that understanding women’s sorting across industries and occupations is key to explain an important portion of remaining gender gaps.

Regarding gender wage gap, most of the studies available for Uruguay decompose wage gaps between observable elements (typically education, age, region) and returns to these characteristics, identifying the presence of gender discrimination in the Uruguay labor market. Bucheli and Sanromán (2005) and Borraz and Robano (2010) estimate quantile regressions for wages and then decompose gender wage gaps; for 2002 and 2007 respectively. In both cases they found that the wage gaps controlled by the observable characteristics are greater for top percentiles of the wage distribution, suggesting the existence of a glass ceiling for women in Uruguay. Furthermore, they find that the factors not associated with the observable characteristics are the main ones to explain the wage gap, which is associated with discrimination. Using unconditional quantile decomposition methods Cerina, Moro et al. (2021) arrive to similar results for Uruguay in a comparative study for 12 Latin American countries. More recently, Perticará and Tejada (2021), who concentrates on the study of wage gaps among skilled workers in 8 Latin American countries including Uruguay, found that discrimination is the most relevant factor for the explanation of the gender wage gap.

Labor segregation and its link with the differences in salaries between men and women have also been analyzed for the Uruguayan case. As Colacce et al. (2020) points out, various works find that the segregation is an explanatory factor of wage gaps. This reflects that the occupations are associated with certain distinguishing features according to sex that contribute to increase the wage gap. Katzkowicz and Querejeta (2013) find that, between 2001 and 2011, wages in integrated occupations were higher, while wages of feminized occupations were lower than those of masculinized ones. More recently, Colacce et al. (2020) for the period 1990–2018, considering mean hourly labor income, find that men labor income is systematically higher than women’s when controlling by age, education and region. Even though, they find this income gap tends to close along the period. Except for private wage earners, who although reducing the wage gap between 1990 and 2004, reverted this tendency after 2004. When considering different percentiles they find that the reduction in labor income gap is greater at the lower end of the distribution, which they associated to a higher growth of female earnings in the lower and middle part of the distribution and a relative stagnant income ratio between men and women at the top of the distribution.

These studies show evidence that the evolution of inequality in Uruguayan labor market has not followed a monotonic pattern at the upper and lower ends of wage distribution. During the nineties, most studies have attributed the increase in inequality at the upper tail of the distribution to changes in returns to skill, supporting the skilled biased technology hypothesis. However, in the first decades of the 2000s we have assisted to a decrease in inequality, mostly explained by the reduction in returns to schooling and the implementation of certain policy reforms (such as tax reform, increase of minimum wages and growing formalization of the labor market). But none considers changes due to technology, which according to the routinization hypothesis, may have a role to explain changes at the top as well as at the bottom of the wage distribution.

Empirical Strategy
Selection bias and Multiple Stochastic Imputation

As is well known, gender differences in employment rates remain, although female participation in the labor market has been steadily increasing. This implies that, even conditional on observable characteristics, the wage gap that emerges from the comparison between male and female workers could be misleading. The wage gap may be influenced by this bias, due to the fact that women that participate are those who expect to have higher remuneration. This is known in the literature as the ‘selection bias’ which is necessary to address when performing estimations of the wage gap. Olivetti and Petrongolo (2008) analyze the median gender gap in developed countries, and use a novel procedure to correct for selection bias. To this end they impute a variable that indicates whether the wage of the unemployed would be above or below the median value of wages. Here we follow the same idea but using the multiple stochastic imputation technique which allows us to correct our estimates for selection bias across the whole distribution. The multiple stochastic imputation technique, firstly proposed by Rubin (1987), consists of three stages: a) imputation, in which K > 1 complete (simulated) databases are generated from a given imputation model; b) analysis with complete data, calculating the indicators of interest in each of the K bases constructed and c) aggregation of the parameters of interest estimated following the so-called ‘Rubin’s rule’. The procedure take into account the additional uncertainty arising from missing data. As in Olivetti and Petrongolo (2008), we impute the wages of those who are unemployed, and leave the wages of those who do not participate in the labor force as missing. To do this, separated by gender and period, we estimate mean linear regression models where log hourly wage is the dependent variable. From these estimates, we generate a simulated value for each unemployed person’s wage by randomly drawing it from the estimated distribution of coefficients and residuals and then, impute the value by taking the mean of the four closest values within the set. This procedure is repeated K = 10 times to generate our multiple imputed data sets.

In all models we include as predictors: education, experience, industry and geographical location dummy variables. We consider flexible specifications that introduce interactions between these covariates. All covariates are observed for the unemployed except industry. However, the industry of their last job is collected by the survey and we use it as a predictor.

The consistency of our imputation-based estimation is mainly based on two assumptions. First, if the unemployed were working, they would be working in the sector of their last job. The same assumption is made to define the information and automation task content measures that correspond to them. Second, and more important, after controlling for observable characteristics, the observation is missing at random. This implies that the wage that an unemployed person would earn is equivalent on average to that earned by an employed person with identical observable characteristics. This assumption is not too restrictive in the current Uruguayan context, given that a large share of the unemployed belong to sectors and occupations where wages are set according to collective bargaining rules, with individual wage bargaining being less frequent within these occupations.

A final consideration regarding the use of multiple imputed data sets is how to obtain point estimates and their variance. To do so, we use a procedure proposed in Schomaker and Heumann (2018) that first obtains the point estimate and bootstrapped standard errors on each simulated dataset and then, applies Rubin’s rules to obtain the estimates of the parameters and their variance. Schomaker and Heumann (2018) show that this procedure yields the correct coverage of the estimated statistics, in particular when K > 5.

RIF-Regressions and Decomposition methodology

In this section we present the RIF-regression decomposition method introduced by Firpo et al. (2009, 2011a, 2018) (FfL from here on). In what follows we present the main ideas and refer to the authors for further details. A RIF-regression is a regression where the dependent variable, Y, has been replaced by the recentered influence function (RIF) of the statistic of interest v(F). In the particular case of quantiles, the RIF-regression is known as unconditional quantile regression (UQR) since, unlike conditional quantile regressions, its coefficients reflect the partial effect of changes in the covariates over the unconditional quantile of the variable of interest (UQPE). RIF-regressions in the case of quantiles can be expressed as, E(RIFτ(y)|X)=Xγ(τ) E\left( {{RIF_\tau }\left( y \right)\,|\,X} \right) = X^\prime\gamma \left( \tau \right) where RIFτ(y) is the RIF at quantile τ of variable y (in our case log hourly wages), X is a vector of observable covariates and γ(τ) are the UQPE of the covariates at quantile τ.

An advantage of RIF-regressions is that they allow identifying non-monotonic effects, like explanations regarding changes on wage inequality that affect specific points of the distribution. For instance, the automation of routine jobs proposed by ALM tends to affect the middle and lower-middle of the distribution. As RIF-regressions can be applied to quantiles and other distributional statistics, they represent a good methodological alternative to go beyond the mean to better understand changes in wages inequality.

Once the RIF-regressions are estimated it is straightforward to decompose the overall change of the statistic of interest (quantile, variance, Gini index, etc.) performing Oaxaca-Blinder. The idea is to use the RIF for the statistic of interest, instead of the outcome variable, as the left hand side variable in a regression. The estimated coefficients of the RIF-regression can be used to perform the detailed decomposition in the same way as a standard Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition (Firpo et al. (2011a)).

The proposed method presents several advantages, being easier to interpret and less computational intensive than other decomposition methods like Chernozhukov et al. (2013) or Machado and Mata (2005). Another important advantage is that the detailed decomposition of wage structure and composition effects is path independent since it is possible to isolate the effect of each covariate by introducing all covariates in one step.

As in the case of the standard Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition, performing a decomposition based only on the RIF-regression may have a bias problem if the linear specification used in the regression is inadequate (Firpo et al. (2018)). To solve this problem, Firpo et al. (2011a, 2018) recommend a two-step procedure to estimate the different elements of the decomposition. In the first stage, distributional changes are divided into a structure effect and a composition effect. This stage is based on a reweighting procedure to cope with potential non-linearities in the true conditional expectation. The second stage further divides the structure and the composition effects into the contribution of each covariate, and is based on the estimation of RIF-regressions.

The aggregate decomposition consists of dividing the overall change of a given distributional statistic (in our case quantiles) (∆τO) into the effect of changes in coefficients (structure effect, (∆τS)) and in characteristics (composition effect, (∆τX)). The sample analogous of these parameters can be defined as, Δ^Oτ=Δ^Sτ+Δ^Xτ=wagestructureeffect(X¯Bι)(γ^A(τ)γ^B(τ))+compositioneffect(X¯AX¯B)γ^A(τ) \hat \Delta _O^\tau = \hat \Delta _S^\tau + \hat \Delta _X^\tau = \overbrace {{\rm{wage}}\,{\rm{structure}}\,{\rm{effect}}}^{\left( {{{\bar X}_B}\,\iota } \right)^\prime\left( {{{\hat \gamma }_A}\left( \tau \right) - {{\hat \gamma }_B}\left( \tau \right)} \right)} + \overbrace {{\rm{composition}}\,{\rm{effect}}}^{\left( {{{\bar X}_A} - {{\bar X}_B}} \right)^\prime{{\hat \gamma }_A}\left( \tau \right)} where A,B denotes two different groups, or the same group at two different points in time, and ι is a vector of ones.

The structure effect reflects the change on the conditional distribution (F(Y/X)) of the variable of interest and the composition effect reflects the effect of changing the distribution of the covariates (X).

In the literature the composition effects are usually referred to as the explained effects while the structure effects as the unexplained effects.

The detailed decomposition allows to disentangle the aggregated wage and structure effects into the contribution of each individual covariate (or group of covariates). This lets us compare the contribution of changes in the returns to occupational tasks to other explanations such as changes in the labor market returns to general skills (experience and education), which have been the most common explanations to changes in wage distribution.

In this paper we use this approach to decompose the observed wage changes over a decade (A corresponds to 2005 and B to 2015) and the gender gap in each period (A corresponds to men and B to women). We use analogous ideas to decompose the change in the gender wage gap over the decade, as we explain in Section 6.

Data and descriptives

The empirical analysis is based on data from the Current Household Survey (Encuesta Continua de Hogares, ECH), collected by the National Statistics Institute of Uruguay (Instituto Nacional de Estadstica, INE). The ECH provides information about sociodemographic variables, labor characteristics and income. For every year of analysis we pool two years of data together to improve the precision of the estimates. We use 2005–06 as the base year and 2014–15 as the end year. As wage measure we use the real log hourly wage, obtained by dividing earnings deflated by Consumer Price Index by hours of work.

To avoid getting hourly wages atypically high, due to wrong declarations of hours of work, we eliminate the observations with less than six work hours during the week. 4 We consider only private workers because we are interest in understanding how market translate technological changes into wages. Due to the particularities of Uruguayan public sector, other considerations apart from supply and demand are taken in the wage setting process, so considering all employees would hide part of the technology impact on wages. Besides from the gender perspective, public wages are also less interesting since as shown by Colacce et al. (2020) the gender wage gap became almost zero in the period of analysis.

We consider only wages and hours worked in the main occupation.

The study considers active men and women workers under a dependence relationship i.e. workers that receive a wage - working at the private sector between ages 25 and 64.4

Table 1 and 2 reports means of relevant variables for the period of analysis. For men as well as for women, the most notable changes along this period are a raise in the participation of middle (between 10 and 12 years of schooling) and highly educated (more than 13 years of schooling) in detriment of those less educated (less than 10 years of schooling), together with a decrease of informal jobs and an increase of employment outside the capital city.

Log hourly wages 2005/2006 and 2014/2015, by gender.

Variable 2005/06 2014/15


With imputation Without imputation With imputation Without imputation




Mean s.e Mean s.e Mean s.e. Mean s.e.
All 3.632 (0.004) 3.658 (0.004) 4.213 (0.003) 4.228 (0.003)
Male 3.724 (0.005) 3.736 (0.005) 4.314 (0.004) 4.320 (0.004)
Female 3.537 (0.005) 3.572 (0.006) 4.114 (0.004) 4.134 (0.004)

Notes: Number of observations: 2005/2006 38,522 2014/2015 41,893 without imputation and 43,022 and 45,063 with imputation in 2005 and 2015 respectevely.

Source: Compiled by authors based on ECH 2005, 2006 and 2014,2015 data.

Descriptive statistics

Variable 2005/06 2014/15 Di · 2005 – 2015



With imputation Without imputation With imputation Without imputation With imputation Without imputation
A: Men
Age 40.388 40.510 40.281 40.418 −0.108 −0.093
Education
6 years or less 0.290 0.286 0.212 0.209 −0.079 −0.077
7 to 9 years 0.327 0.325 0.289 0.288 −0.038 −0.037
10 to 12 years 0.243 0.246 0.331 0.333 0.088 0.087
13 to 16 years 0.067 0.067 0.084 0.084 0.018 0.017
16 and more years 0.074 0.076 0.084 0.085 0.010 0.009
Non – married 0.276 0.261 0.304 0.291 0.028 0.030
Resto of the country 0.492 0.491 0.473 0.473 −0.019 −0.018
Not registered 0.231 0.208 0.096 0.088 −0.134 −0.121

B: Women
Age 40.902 41.244 40.887 41.149 −0.015 −0.095
Education
6 years or less 0.261 0.250 0.185 0.177 −0.076 −0.073
7 to 9 years 0.270 0.262 0.233 0.225 −0.037 −0.037
10 to 12 years 0.270 0.275 0.352 0.357 0.082 0.082
13 to 16 years 0.097 0.101 0.107 0.111 0.010 0.010
16 and more years 0.102 0.112 0.122 0.129 0.020 0.017
Non – married 0.430 0.437 0.391 0.391 −0.038 −0.045
Rest of the country 0.455 0.440 0.466 0.461 0.010 0.021
Not registered 0.327 0.282 0.136 0.115 −0.191 −0.167

Notes: Number of observations: 2005/2006 38,522 2014/2015 41,893 without imputation and 43,022 and 45,063 with imputation in 2005 and 2015 respectevely.

Source: Compiled by authors based on ECH 2005, 2006 and 2014,2015 data.

Figure 1 shows changes in hourly log real wages at each decile of the wage distribution as well as in men and women wage. Between 2005–06 and 2014–15 men and women’s real wages increased along the distribution. Wage gains decreases monotonically from the lower end to the top of the distribution, resulting in a decrease in overall inequality. So, a non polarized pattern is observed. On the contrary, during the period of analysis we assist to a highly equalizing phenomenon. However, it is interesting to notice that middle wages did increase less than lower wages, as predicted by ALM’s routinization hypothesis. In contrast, the evolution of inequality at the top end of the distribution seems to contradict the supplementation hypothesis.

Figure 1

Log hourly wage change between 2005 and 2015, by gender

Note: i. Solid lines are point estimates, dashed lines indicate the lower and upper bound of the 95 confidence interval. Bootstrapped standard errors are calculated (200 replicates) within each 10 imputed data sets and then Rubin’s rules are applied. ii. Wages are expressed in real terms, 2010 prices.

Apart from studying changes in wage distribution of the whole population, we consider changes in men and women wage distributions separately due to the existing gender occupational segregation, which implies different task content by gender. Figure 2 shows, that women have overtaken men in their relative representation among professional and technicians, and are strongly over represented among clerical, sales and service workers, but underrepresented among production, primary, construction and transportation workers.

Figure 2

Occupational category by gender

Note: Percentage of private workers by occupational category and gender in 2005 and 2015.

Task content measures

We construct our task content measures following Firpo et al. (2011b) and Jensen and Kletzer (2010) who focus on the ‘Occupational Requirements’ of occupations. In the spirit of Autor et al. (2003) to measure routine versus non routine and cognitive versus non cognitive aspects of occupation, we construct two variables thought to be positively related to technology: ‘Information content’ and ‘Automation/routinization’. As for Uruguay there are no studies nor a systematic database of task content of occupations, we use for this purpose the O*NET 15.0 data available from the National Center for O*NET Development. The O*NET content model organizes the key features of an occupation into a standardized, measurable set of variables called ‘descriptors’.

The Information Content Index seeks to identify occupations with high information content that are likely to be positively affected by ICTs, and within the Generalized and Detailed Work Activities subdomain we consider the following work activities: ‘Getting information’, ‘Processing information’, ‘Analyzing data or information’, ‘Interacting with computers’ and ‘Documenting/Recording information’.

For the construction of the Information Content Index, the O*NET provides information on the importance and level of the required work activity and on the frequency of five categorical levels of the work context. Following Firpo et al. (2011b), we give a Cobb-Douglas weight of two-thirds to importance and one-third to level by using a weighted sum for work activities. In addition, we performed a robustness check in which we calculated this index by giving one-third to the former and two-thirds to the latter.

The Automation Content Index is constructed using the Work Context subdomain, to reflect the degree of potential automation, including: ‘Degree of automation’, ‘Importance of repeating same tasks’, ‘Structured versus unstructured work (reverse)’, ‘Pace determined by speed of equipment’, and ‘Spend time making repetitive motions’.

We normalize the task measures by dividing them by their maximum value observed over all occupations, so that they range between zero and one. This gives us a ranking of occupations for each of the two dimensions. We use these indexes to assess the impact of technological progress on changes in wages and their influence on the gender wage gap.

As it is observed in Figures 3 and 4, alike the results reported by Firpo et al. (2011b) using US data, Professional, managerial and technical occupations have the highest score in terms of their use of information, and a relative low score for automation. On the other hand, Production workers and operators have a low score in terms of their use of information and the highest score for automation. According to the routinization hypothesis, technological change is expected to have an adverse impact on wages in this last group of occupations, which tends to be the more intensely subject to machine displacement, while benefiting those with a more intense use of information technology.

Figure 3

Information Task Content measure by Occupational Category

Note: Compiled by authors based on ECH-INE and National Center for O*NET Development. Blue bars correspond to men and violet ones to women.

Figure 4

Automation Task Content measure by Occupational Category

Note: Compiled by authors based on ECH-INE and National Center for O*NET Development. Blue bars correspond to men and violet ones to women.

In Table 3 and 4 we report the average value and standard deviations of the measures of task content indexes for five major occupational groups. As it can be seen, the distribution of both indexes among occupational categories by gender shows significant differences. The average Information Index of female occupations is higher than that of male occupations. However, when consider particular sectors, female information task index is only higher in clerical and service occupations in 2005 and in Agricultural, construction and transport and service occupations in 2015. The opposite is the case when considering the average Automation Index which is higher for male than for females. However, only in the case of manager, professionals and technicians sector men automation index is higher than that of women.

Average O*NET Indexes by Major Occupation Group 2005

A: WITH IMPUTATION 2005

MEN WOMEN

O*Net Indexes Information Automation Information Automation
Overall Mean 0.596 0.739 0.602 0.732
Standard Deviation 0.118 0.062 0.112 0.061
Manager, Professionals, Technicians 0.788 0.702 0.771 0.676
Clerical support and sale workers 0.666 0.738 0.672 0.744
Plant and machines operators and assemblers 0.546 0.772 0.518 0.803
Agricultural, construction and transport workers 0.543 0.744 0.522 0.747
Service workers 0.530 0.713 0.531 0.726

B: WITHOUT IMPUTATION

Overall Mean 0.598 0.739 0.607 0.732
Standard Deviation 0.119 0.062 0.114 0.061
Manager, Professionals, Technicians 0.789 0.701 0.771 0.676
Clerical support and sale workers 0.667 0.738 0.675 0.747
Plant and machines operators and assemblers 0.547 0.772 0.518 0.804
Agricultural, construction and transport workers 0.544 0.744 0.531 0.750
Service workers 0.530 0.712 0.531 0.726

Source: Compiled by authors based on ECH 2005, 2006 and 2014, 2015 data and O*NET.

Note: The information content index is computed as ICj=k=15Ijk23*Ljk13 {IC_j} = \sum\limits_{k = 1}^5 {I_{jk}^{{2 \over 3}}*L_{jk}^{{1 \over 3}}} where k = work activities: Getting information, Processing information, Analyzing data or information, Interacting with computers, Documenting/Recording information. The automation content is defined as ACj=l=15Fjl*Vjl {AC_j} = \sum\limits_{l = 1}^5 {{F_{jl}}*{V_{jl}}} where l = work context: Degree of automation, Importance of repeating same tasks, Structured versus unstructured work (reverse), Pace determined by speed of equipment, Spend time making repetitive motions. Task measures are normalized to range between zero and one.

Avarage O*NET Indexes by Major Occupation Group 2015

A: WITH IMPUTATION 2015

MEN WOMEN

O*Net Indexes Information Automation Information Automation
Overall Mean 0.608 0.738 0.621 0.732
Standard Deviation 0.117 0.063 0.114 0.061
Manager, Professionals, Technicians 0.799 0.706 0.776 0.685
Clerical support and sale workers 0.670 0.744 0.668 0.746
Plant and machines operators and assemblers 0.552 0.772 0.518 0.802
Agricultural, construction and transport workers 0.559 0.738 0.561 0.757
Service workers 0.536 0.713 0.545 0.725

B: WITHOUT IMPUTATION

Overall Mean 0.610 0.738 0.625 0.732
Standard Deviation 0.117 0.063 0.115 0.062
Manager, Professionals, Technicians 0.799 0.706 0.777 0.685
Clerical support and sale workers 0.671 0.744 0.671 0.748
Plant and machines operators and assemblers 0.552 0.772 0.519 0.804
Agricultural, construction and transport workers 0.560 0.737 0.576 0.761
Service workers 0.536 0.712 0.544 0.725

Source: Compiled by authors based on ECH 2005, 2006 and 2014, 2015 data and O*NET.

Note: The information content index is computed as ICj=k=15Ijk23*Ljk13 {IC_j} = \sum\limits_{k = 1}^5 {I_{jk}^{{2 \over 3}}*L_{jk}^{{1 \over 3}}} where where k = work activities: Getting information, Processing information, Analyzing data or information, Interacting with computers, Documenting/Recording information. The automation content is de ned as ACj=l=15Fjl*Vjl {AC_j} = \sum\limits_{l = 1}^5 {{F_{jl}}*{V_{jl}}} where l = work context: Degree of automation, Importance of repeating same tasks, Structured versus unstructured work (reverse), Pace determined by speed of equipment, Spend time making repetitive motions. Task measures are normalized to range between zero and one.

Since the task content indexes are not readily interpretable, we compute quartiles of each of the two task content measures that are included in our regressions. In Table 5 we report the percentage of workers, by gender, in five major occupational groups that rank in the top quartile of each of our O*NET task content measures in 2005–2006 and 2014–2015. As expected, the highest percentage of workers in the top quartile of our information content measure is found among professional, managerial and technical occupations and among them, men are more likely than women to be in the top quartile of our information content measure. On the other hand, more than half of production workers are in the top quartile of our automation/routine measure, and this is even clearer in the case of women.

Percentage of Workers in the Top Quartile of Task Content Indexes by Major Occupation Group in 2005/2006 – 2014/2015 (with self selection correction)

Task Content Indexes Percentage of workers Technology

Information Automation



2005 Men Women Men Women Men Women
Overall 100 100 20 25 26 23
Manager, Professionals, Technicians 13 12 87 84 0 0
Clerical support and sale workers 19 31 45 49 48 56
Plant and machines operators and assemblers 20 8 2 0 51 75
Agricultural, construction and transport workers 36 1 1 1 20 27
Service workers 13 48 0 0 2 0

2015

Overall 100 100 21 29 23 16
Manager, Professionals, Technicians 13 15 87 82 1 0
Clerical support and sale workers 20 36 44 48 23 30
Plant and machines operators and assemblers 20 6 2 0 49 69
Agricultural, construction and transport workers 33 2 1 0 24 38
Service workers 14 42 0 0 2 0

Note: The numbers in each of the task content indexes columns indicate the percentage of workers in each major occupation by gender, which fall in the top 75 per cent of their category.

In the overall, the percentage of men in the top 25 percent of information is smaller than the percentage of women, while in the case of automation is the other way around. However, within each occupational group women are more likely than men to perform tasks more likely to be automated, except for service occupations. Nevertheless, an important part of the variation in the occupational task measures comes from production operators, primary, construction and transport occupations and 53 percent of men but only 8 percent of women are in these occupations, which have very low scores for information and very high scores for automation.

In the group of professional, managerial and technical occupations, which is the group with the highest information index, a smaller percentage of women than of men are placed in the top quartile, although in both cases the percentage is quite large. On the other hand, in the case of automation, in the group of production and operators occupations, where only 6 percent of women are working, 69 percent of women work at occupations at the top 25 percent rank of the automation index. Besides, among clerical and sales workers, which gather 36 percent of women, more than half of them were at the top quartile degree of automation in 2005, but this percentage reduced to 30 percent in 2015. However, women are still concentrated in the service sector (42 percent of women), which after professional and technical occupations is the group with the smallest index of automation task content.

Given these dissimilarities between genders in the distribution of occupations and their degree of automation and information task content, technology is expected to impact men and women employments and salaries in quite a different way. What is more, it is interesting to notice that in the period of analysis, women employment increased mostly among professionals and technicians and in clerical and sales occupations. The first ones demand high educated workers, and the last ones require middle and low educated workers. Although a big share of this employment still demands a high degree of automate tasks, the percentage of workers in this sector at the top 25 per cent of automation had significantly diminished. Nevertheless, it still remains high, and women are a major part of them. Therefore, they are more vulnerable to being substitute by a machine in the future, since we expect ICTs to enhance tasks involving the processing of information performed by high skilled workers while substituting those tasks that can be automated and generally performed by middle skilled workers.

Results
Unconditional quantile partial effects

We first estimate the RIF-regressions for different quantiles of the log hourly wage distribution. Covariates include dummies for each quartile of our two measures of occupational tasks. In addition, we include standard controls for education (five dummies) and potential experience (nine groups)

Potential experience is measured as age minus years of education minus six.

(Autor et al. (2006)). We also include controls for region (capital city vs. rest of the country), marital status and being registered in the social security system (formal vs. informal workers).

We estimate RIF-regressions in each period for the whole sample (in which case we add the female covariate) and for each gender separate. The base group are married formal employees, working at the private sector, with six or less years of education, 15 to 20 years of potential experience, at the bottom quartile of each of the task content measures and living in Montevideo.

The omitted group education and experience categories were chosen based on the modal of each category.

Tables 6, 7 and 8 report the Unconditional Quantile Partial Effects at 10th, 50th, and 90th quantiles of the whole sample, male and female wage distribution, along with their bootstrapped multiple imputation standard errors. We consider two periods 2005/06 and 2014/15. Additional estimates for the 10th to the 90th quantiles are also reported in Figures 5 and 6 for some variables of interest.

Unconditional Quantile Partial Effects on Log Wages (2005 – 2015) - RIF Regression

Year 2005/06 2014/15



Covariates/Quantile 10 50 90 10 50 90
Female −0.141*** (0.005) −0.158*** (0.003) −0.327*** (0.004) −0.203*** (0.002) −0.237*** (0.002) −0.272*** (0.002)
Task content indexes (1st. quartile omitted)
Information content Q2 0.136*** (0.009) 0.105*** (0.009) 0.080*** (0.006) −0.001 (0.005) −0.059*** (0.003) 0.047*** (0.003)
Information content Q3 0.105*** (0.008) 0.220*** (0.008) 0.061*** (0.006) 0.005 (0.004) 0.004*** (0.001) −0.118*** (0.002)
Information content Q4 0.185*** (0.008) 0.543*** (0.008) 1.013*** (0.011) 0.071*** (0.004) 0.230*** (0.002) 0.514*** (0.005)
Automation content Q2 −0.010 (0.009) 0.011 (0.009) −0.112*** (0.005) 0.045*** (0.001) 0.002 (0.002) −0.151*** (0.005)
Automation content Q3 0.205*** (0.009) 0.281*** (0.009) −0.125*** (0.008) 0.101*** (0.002) 0.11*** (0.002) −0.093*** (0.003)
Automation content Q4 0.088*** (0.008) 0.037*** (0.008) −0.304*** (0.007) 0.1*** (0.003) 0.045*** (0.003) −0.412*** (0.004)
Education (6 years or less omitted)
From 7 to 9 years 0.167*** (0.009) 0.141*** (0.004) 0.093*** (0.004) 0.148*** (0.004) 0.105*** (0.002) 0.064*** (0.002)
From 10 to 12 years 0.243*** (0.008) 0.278*** (0.005) 0.356*** (0.008) 0.281*** (0.004) 0.294*** (0.002) 0.267*** (0.003)
From 13 to 15 years 0.243*** (0.008) 0.278*** (0.005) 0.356*** (0.008) 0.281*** (0.004) 0.294*** (0.002) 0.267*** (0.003)
16 and more years 0.296*** (0.009) 0.525*** (0.008) 0.978*** (0.015) 0.359*** (0.005) 0.566*** (0.004) 0.765*** (0.006)
Experience (15<Experience<20 omitted)
Experience<5 0.042*** (0.012) −0.079*** (0.014) −1.581*** (0.034) 0.020*** (0.004) −0.099*** (0.009) −1.067*** (0.017)
5<experience<10 0.023** (0.010) −0.130*** (0.005) −0.670*** (0.009) −0.017*** (0.004) −0.119*** (0.003) −0.436*** (0.007)
10<experience<15 −0.051*** (0.009) −0.116*** (0.004) −0.153*** (0.007) −0.046*** (0.004) −0.088*** (0.003) −0.128*** (0.003)
20<experience<25 0.035*** (0.009) 0.102*** (0.004) 0.118*** (0.006) 0.031*** (0.003) 0.031*** (0.004) 0.074*** (0.005)
25<experience<30 0.075*** (0.008) 0.144*** (0.003) 0.213*** (0.007) 0.034*** (0.004) 0.067*** (0.003) 0.132*** (0.003)
30<experience<35 0.056*** (0.008) 0.16*** (0.005) 0.232*** (0.007) 0.049*** (0.004) 0.089*** (0.003) 0.202*** (0.004)
35<experience<40 0.113*** (0.010) 0.176*** (0.006) 0.222*** (0.005) 0.055*** (0.005) 0.086*** (0.003) 0.195*** (0.003)
Experience>40 0.046*** (0.008) 0.208*** (0.004) 0.225*** (0.006) 0.048*** (0.004) 0.094*** (0.003) 0.167*** (0.004
Nonmarried −0.073*** (0.005) −0.131*** (0.004) −0.149*** (0.003) −0.050*** (0.002) −0.101*** (0.002) −0.101*** (0.001)
Region −0.190*** (0.003) −0.161*** (0.003) −0.150*** (0.004) −0.086*** (0.002) −0.060*** (0.001) −0.059*** (0.001)
Informal −0.438*** (0.007) −0.244*** (0.005) −0.0220*** (0.006) −0.506*** (0.008) −0.196*** (0.003) 0.001 (0.003)
Constant 2.750*** (0.013) 3.334*** (0.005) 4.358*** (0.007) 3.450*** (0.007) 4.008*** (0.004) 4.834*** (0.003)

Notes: Bootstrapped standard errors are in parenthesis (200 replications of the entire procedure).

Number of observations 2005/2006: 43,022; 2014/15: 45,063

p<0.01,

p<0.05,

p<0.1

Source: Compiled by authors based on ECH 2005, 2006 and 2014, 2015 data and O*NET.34

Unconditional Quantile Partial Effects on Male Log Wages (2005 – 2015) - RIF Regression

Year 2005/06 2014/15



Covariates/Quantile 10 50 90 10 50 90
Task content indexes (1st. quartile omitted)
Information content Q2 0.071*** (0.005) 0.087*** (0.005) −0.075*** (0.007) −0.022** (0.009) 0.010*** (0.003) 0.111*** (0.004)
Information content Q3 0.031*** (0.006) 0.081*** (0.004) 0.007 (0.007) 0.005 (0.005) −0.035*** (0.002) −0.133*** (0.003)
Information content Q4 0.14*** (0.006) 0.45*** (0.006) 1.112*** (0.011) 0.026*** (0.006) 0.163*** (0.002) 0.474*** (0.008)
Automation content Q2 −0.259*** (0.007) −0.147*** (0.004) −0.171*** (0.007) −0.050*** (0.003) −0.035*** (0.002) −0.096*** (0.004)
Automation content Q3 0.124*** (0.008) 0.227*** (0.010) −0.142*** (0.010) 0.057*** (0.003) 0.129*** (0.003) −0.014*** (0.004)
Automation content Q4 0.009* (0.005) −0.019*** (0.005) 0.008 (0.008) 0.003 (0.003) −0.02*** (0.003) −0.326*** (0.003)
Education (6 years or less omitted)
From 7 to 9 years 0.193*** (0.007) 0.164*** (0.004) 0.101*** (0.007) 0.173*** (0.005) 0.112*** (0.002) 0.096*** (0.003)
From 10 to 12 years 0.274*** (0.007) 0.331*** (0.005) 0.460*** (0.010) 0.269*** (0.004) 0.311*** (0.002) 0.345*** (0.004)
From 13 to 15 years 0.328*** (0.012) 0.535*** (0.009) 1.257*** (0.031) 0.353*** (0.006) 0.524*** (0.005) 0.899*** (0.008)
16 and more years 0.312*** (0.005) 0.649*** (0.007) 2.751*** (0.032) 0.403*** (0.006) 0.691*** (0.004) 1.953*** (0.012)
Experience (15<Experience<20 omitted)
Experience<5 −0.024** (0.011) −0.090*** (0.015) −2.119*** (0.044) 0.054*** (0.006) −0.077*** (0.015) −1.350*** (0.036)
5<experience<10 0.008 (0.012) −0.129*** (0.011) −0.916*** (0.017) −0.013*** (0.004) −0.128*** (0.005) −0.516*** (0.009)
10<experience<15 −0.112*** (0.013) −0.138*** (0.006) −0.156*** (0.010) −0.039*** (0.004) −0.072*** (0.003) −0.147*** (0.006)
20<experience<25 0.046*** (0.009) 0.108*** (0.007) 0.131*** (0.008) 0.053*** (0.004) 0.06*** (0.003) 0.096*** (0.005)
25<experience<30 0.075*** (0.007) 0.147*** (0.004) 0.26*** (0.008) 0.065*** (0.003) 0.094*** (0.004) 0.156*** (0.005)
30<experience<35 0.074*** (0.008) 0.159*** (0.006) 0.192*** (0.010) 0.073*** (0.003) 0.128*** (0.001) 0.204*** (0.005)
35<experience<40 0.096*** (0.010) 0.153*** (0.007) 0.202*** (0.008) 0.092*** (0.004) 0.129*** (0.004) 0.243*** (0.005)
Experience>40 0.052*** (0.012) 0.165*** (0.005) 0.235*** (0.011) 0.091*** (0.005) 0.091*** (0.003) 0.192*** (0.007)
Nonmarried −0.083*** (0.008) −0.159*** (0.003) −0.158*** (0.004) −0.071*** (0.002) −0.111*** (0.002) −0.134*** (0.003)
Region −0.108*** (0.004) −0.097*** (0.004) −0.147*** (0.007) −0.054*** (0.004) −0.016*** (0.002) −0.029*** (0.002)
Informal −0.484*** (0.011) −0.325*** (0.006) −0.017* (0.010) −0.515*** (0.008) −0.255*** (0.004) 0.008 (0.006)
Constant 2.853*** (0.008) 3.458*** (0.007) 4.327*** (0.011) 3.504*** (0.007) 4.021*** (0.004) 4.725*** (0.007)

Notes: Bootstrapped standard errors are in parenthesis (200 replications of the entire procedure).

Number of observations 2005/2006: 21,852; 2014/15: 22,183

p<0.01,

p<0.05,

p<0.1

Source: Compiled by authors based on ECH 2005, 2006 and 2014, 2015 data and O*NET.

Unconditional Quantile Partial Effects on Female Log Wages (2005 – 2015) - RIF Regression

Year 2005/06 2014/15



Covariates/Quantile 10 50 90 10 50 90
Task content indexes (1st. quartile omitted)
Information content Q2 0.132*** (0.019) 0.069*** (0.005) −0.018** (0.007) 0.065*** (0.009) 0.004 (0.006) 0.025*** (0.006)
Information content Q3 0.136*** (0.020) 0.384*** (0.011) 0.010 (0.010) 0.008 (0.008) 0.103*** (0.004) −0.107*** (0.006)
Information content Q4 0.602*** (0.016) 0.607*** (0.007) 0.886*** (0.008) 0.103*** (0.008) 0.374*** (0.005) 0.587*** (0.005)
Automation content Q2 0.162*** (0.013) 0.169*** (0.005) −0.068*** (0.006) 0.078*** (0.008) 0.098*** (0.005) −0.143*** (0.009)
Automation content Q3 0.171*** (0.024) 0.178*** (0.010) −0.186*** (0.014) 0.143*** (0.006) 0.186*** (0.005) −0.211*** (0.007)
Automation content Q4 0.096*** (0.018) 0.041*** (0.006) 0.012 (0.011) 0.006 (0.005) 0.106*** (0.006) −0.487*** (0.009)
Education (6 years or less omitted)
From 7 to 9 years 0.176*** (0.015) 0.115*** (0.011) 0.043*** (0.008) 0.133*** (0.007) 0.07*** (0.003) 0.019*** (0.005)
From 10 to 12 years 0.285*** (0.017) 0.248*** (0.011) 0.18*** (0.011) 0.31*** (0.008) 0.313*** (0.004) 0.138*** (0.004)
From 13 to 15 years 0.352*** (0.018) 0.492*** (0.012) 0.705*** (0.021) 0.39*** (0.010) 0.581*** (0.005) 0.599*** (0.009)
16 and more years 0.364*** (0.018) 0.648*** (0.011) 1.857*** (0.020) 0.424*** (0.010) 0.74*** (0.004) 1.712*** (0.013)
Experience (15<Experience<20 omitted)
Experience<5 0.138*** (0.027) −0.03* (0.016) −1.239*** (0.056) 0.053*** (0.004) −0.082*** (0.009) −0.957*** (0.040)
5<experience<10 0.054*** (0.021) −0.09*** (0.007) −0.499*** (0.018) 0.017** (0.007) −0.095*** (0.005) −0.372*** (0.010)
10<experience<15 −0.003 (0.021) −0.074*** (0.006) −0.159*** (0.009) −0.011 (0.009) −0.081*** (0.005) −0.112*** (0.006)
20<experience<25 0.048*** (0.017) 0.08*** (0.008) 0.102*** (0.007) 0.066*** (0.008) 0.012* (0.007) 0.044*** (0.009)
25<experience<30 0.105*** (0.020) 0.118*** (0.009) 0.117*** (0.006) 0.056*** (0.007) 0.056*** (0.008) 0.085*** (0.006)
30<experience<35 0.092*** (0.015) 0.121*** (0.009) 0.16*** (0.009) 0.079*** (0.008) 0.066*** (0.007) 0.183*** (0.009)
35<experience<40 0.134*** (0.018) 0.149*** (0.006) 0.154*** (0.005) 0.078*** (0.011) 0.06*** (0.007) 0.137*** (0.008)
Experience>40 0.08*** (0.018) 0.196*** (0.008) 0.163*** (0.009) 0.048*** (0.005) 0.048*** (0.006) 0.098*** (0.005)
Nonmarried −0.082*** (0.009) −0.078*** (0.004) −0.105*** (0.004) −0.04*** (0.003) −0.066*** (0.002) −0.076*** (0.003)
Region −0.266*** (0.008) −0.228*** (0.005) −0.164*** (0.005) −0.1*** (0.003) −0.109*** (0.002) −0.094*** (0.002)
Informal −0.451*** (0.022) −0.156*** (0.008) −0.085*** (0.007) −0.525*** (0.021) −0.131*** (0.006) −0.01** (0.005)
Constant 2.508*** (0.036) 3.107*** (0.008) 4.251*** (0.008) 3.179*** (0.013) 3.63*** (0.007) 4.706*** (0.011)

Notes: Bootstrapped standard errors are in parenthesis (200 replications of the entire procedure).

Number of observations 2005/2006: 21,170; 2014/15: 22,880

p<0.01,

p<0.05,

p<0.1

Source: Compiled by authors based on ECH 2005, 2006 and 2014, 2015 data and O*NET.

Figure 5

Unconditional Quantile Partial Effects: Occupational Task. Forth vs First Quartile of Task Content. Dependent variable: log hourly wages. 2005 and 2015.

Notes: i. Figures show the UQPE of the task indexes for the upper quartile when the bottom quartile is omitted. ii. Information/Automation covariates are defined as category variables that indicate the degree of information/automation task content of the job. Four quartiles are considered. iii. 2005 in red, 2015 in blue. Solid lines are point estimates, dashed lines indicate the lower and upper bound of the 95 confidence interval. Bootstrapped standard errors are calculated (200 replicates) within each 10 imputed data sets and then Rubin’s rules are applied.

Figure 6

Unconditional Quantile Partial Effects: Selected Education Covariates (Dummy 6 Years of Schooling omitted). Dependent variable: log hourly wages. 2005 and 2015.

Notes: i. Figures show the UQPE of educational dummies, six years of education or less is omitted. ii. 2005 in red, 2015 in blue. Solid lines are point estimates, dashed lines indicate the lower and upper bound of the 95 confidence interval. Bootstrapped standard errors are calculated (200 replicates) within each 10 imputed data sets and then Rubin’s rules are applied.

The first thing to note is that the gender wage gap widens, in the period covered, except at the top of the distribution. Indeed, the female dummy variable increases in absolute terms from 2005 to 2015 to the 80th percentile (see Figure 8).

Regarding task measures, as expected, we find that the effects of information and automation content of task diverge (Figure 5). This is true no matter if we consider all cases, or just males or females. The information task content premium is positive for male and substantially increases along the whole wage distribution. For women, that premium is also positive but a little hump-shaped: it increases until the 70th percentile but reduces the slope from that point on. Such patterns are observed in both periods, but premiums fall for both genders between 2005 and 2015; in particular at the top half of male wage distribution. Those results are in line with those presented by Firpo et al. (2011b) for the US during the nineties. It is also remarkable that the premium to the information task content is larger for females than for males, in particular in 2015.

On the other hand, the return to the automation task content is positive in the first half of the wage distribution but turns negative in the top half. This result is driven by returns to female workers. For males, it is not significantly different from zero at the bottom half and negative at the top half. For women, however, it is positive and significant until the 60th percentile and negative at the top tail. Such results would not be consistent with ALM’s routinization hypothesis, which postulates that workers at the middle of the distribution are more likely to experience negative wage changes as the routine tasks they perform are more likely to be executed by machines. What is more, in the case of women returns to automation increased at the middle of the distribution between 2005 and 2015, although they diminished at the top end.

It is interesting to notice, the different impact of automation by gender at the bottom of the distribution. It could be explained by the predominant presence of women in the service sector, which is characterized by low wages and a relative low degree of automation. That is, the returns to automation capture the fact that women at the bottom of the wage distribution earn a positive premium if their work imply some degree of automation and, contrary to men, at the lower end of the distribution - which perform task more subject to automation - are less subject to displacements effects.

Education premium varied along the wage distribution and between education levels. The premium for tertiary education (16 and more years) relative to the base group (6 or less years of schooling) is strongly increasing over the wage distribution for both genders, but substantially larger for male than for women at the top tail. Therefore, as it is well documented, despite women being on average more educated than male, skill premia received by women at the top are significantly less than those payed to male. An interesting feature is that premiums at the top showed a substantial reduction between 2005 and 2015 for men, but not for women. For 10 to 12 years of education, premiums are increasing along quantiles for men but they are almost flat for women. Also, premiums for men experienced a decrease in the period under analysis. Those results are in line with the evidence of other studies regarding skill premia in Latin American and Uruguay (de la Torre (2012); Yapor (2018)) (See Figure 6). As we show in the next section, this different evolution of education premia for males and females worked in the direction of reducing the wage gender gap in the period, specially at the top end of the distribution.

To sum up, in the case of Uruguay, as well as in other developing countries, the effect of automation and the consequences predicted by the routinization hypothesis seem to be displaced towards the right side of the wage distribution. Such a shift may be linked to the relative cost of labor to technology, divergences of occupations’ shares; and also to the different degree of automation of tasks, compared with those of developed countries’ labor markets. That is, in developing countries, labor tasks subject to substitution by technology would rather be placed at an upper level of the distribution of wages than at the middle; since wages at the middle are relatively low and therefore there are fewer incentives to substitute labor by technology. Furthermore, contrary to the routinization hypothesis predictions, Apella and Zunino (2017) find that between 1995 and 2015 (and between 2005 and 2015) there was an increase of the relative importance of routine cognitive task in the labor market. Since this task are generally performed by workers at the middle of the distribution, this increase in the demand of routine cognitive task at the labor market could explain the positive effect of automation in returns at the lower half of the distribution.

Wage changes and inequality
Overall Decomposition Results

Overall wage changes between 2005 and 2015 as well as aggregated decomposition results are presented in Figure 7. Wages substantially increased over the period of analysis and the slope of the curve, which captures wage increases, is remarkably negative resulting in a strong reduction in wage inequality.

Figure 7

Aggregated decomposition of log hourly wages changes, 2005 and 2015.

Notes: i. Figures show the total change of wages by gender, as well as the aggregated decomposition into the structure and the composition effect. RIF-regression method is used to perform the decomposition. Covariates include: Information, Automation, Education, Experience, Informal worker, Region and Marital status. ii. Solid lines are point estimates, dashed lines indicate the lower and upper bound of the 95 confidence interval. Bootstrapped standard errors are calculated (200 replicates) within each 10 imputed data sets and then Rubin’s rules are applied.

The overall change in (real log hourly) wages at percentile τ, (∆τO), decomposes into a composition (∆τX) and a wage structure effect (∆τS). Figure 7 shows that increases in wages were mainly driven by the structure effect. The composition effect also contributed to wage increases, but its contribution is very small compared to the influence of the structure effect. It is also worth mentioning that the composition effect is more relevant for women than for men. The above results hold when we do not correct for selection bias, and also when we consider an alternative definition of the information task measure (see Figure A4 of the Supplementary Appendix).

Figure 7 also shows that the wage structure effect curve is sharply decreasing along the distribution and thus implies that it drives a pronounced reduction in inequality. In contrast, the composition effect is almost flat and therefore has almost no effect on wage inequality.

Table 9 complements the results by reporting standard measures of wage inequality, such as the decomposition of the change in the overall 90-10 gap, which corresponds to the subtraction of the structure and composition effects at the 90th percentile minus those at the 10th percentile. In addition, figures for the decomposition of changes in the 90-50 and 50-10 gaps are also presented.

Aggregate Decomposition of wage change between 2005 and 2015

90–10 90–50 50–10



A. All
Total Change −0.453*** (0.004) −0.255*** (0.002) −0.197*** (0.002)
Composition −0.066*** (0.003) −0.067*** (0.002) 0.001 (0.002)
Structure −0.387*** (0.003) −0.188*** (0.002) −0.198*** (0.003)

B. Males

Total Change −0.582*** (0.005) −0.34*** (0.002) −0.242*** (0.004)
Composition −0.02*** (0.002) −0.015*** (0.002) −0.005*** (0.002)
Structure −0.562*** (0.005) −0.326*** (0.002) −0.236*** (0.004)

C. Females

Total Change −0.418*** (0.012) −0.184*** (0.004) −0.233*** (0.009)
Composition −0.052*** (0.01) −0.038*** (0.006) −0.014** (0.006)
Structure −0.365*** (0.01) −0.146*** (0.006) −0.219*** (0.008)

p<0.01,

p<0.05,

p<0.1

Source: Compiled by authors based on ECH 2005, 2006 and 2014, 2015 data. 32

Overall inequality (90-10 gap) dramatically decreased along the period: 45 p.p. for the whole sample, 58 and 42 p.p. for men and women, respectively. For men, changes at the top end were greater than for women (34 vs 18 p.p.); while at the bottom figures are almost equal for both genders (around 23–24 p.p.). However, it is worth noticing that while for men the reduction in inequality was greater at the upper half of the distribution the contrary occurred with women wages.

Table 9 and Figure 7 clearly shows that, as noted above, the observed change in the wage distribution was mainly driven by the wage structure effect; and the composition effect played a minor role although enhancing the structure effect. This is true for the sample as a whole as well as for each gender separately.

It should be noted that the composition effect for women varies when controlling for selection bias compared to the uncorrected estimates: in particular, in the latter its magnitude is remarkably larger (15 versus 5 p.p.) and its contribution to the reduction of wage inequality is driven completely by the upper part of the distribution. This result is expected because of the huge increase in the employment rate of women in the period covered, and reflects the fact that the characteristics of women entering employment are on average worse than those already employed, a feature that it is not capture when we estimate using all females in the labor force to control for selection bias. (see Table A4 in the Supplementary Appendix).

Detailed Decomposition Results

In this section we analyze the contribution of covariates to the change, between 2005 and 2015, of the 90-10, 90-50 and 50-10 wage gaps. Tables 10 and 11 report estimates of detailed composition and structure effects associated with included covariates over inequality changes. Covariates are grouped into five groups: technological content of tasks (information and automation), education, potential experience and a residual group named ‘others’ which includes region, marital status and being registered in the social security system. In addition, for the decomposition exercises when using the whole sample, we include a female dummy variable to control for gender.

Detailed Decomposition of the composition effect, based on Unconditional Quantile Partial Effects

Inequality measure All Males Females



90-10 90-50 50-10 90-10 90-50 50-10 90-10 90-50 50-10
Female −0.002*** (0.00007) −0.002*** (0.00005) −0.00016*** (0.00004)
Information 0.018*** (0.0009) 0.000 (0.0007) 0.018*** (0.0005) 0.001 (0.0008) −0.005*** (0.0008) 0.006*** (0.0006) 0.040*** (0.002) 0.003*** (0.001) 0.037*** (0.001)
Automation −0.041*** (0.00146) −0.048*** (0.00087) 0.007*** (0.0015) 0.012*** (0.0008) 0.00667*** (0.001) 0.006*** (0.0009) −0.036*** (0.006) −0.03539*** (0.005) −0.00058 (0.005)
Education 0.042*** (0.001) 0.032*** (0.0007) 0.011*** (0.0005) 0.057*** (0.0018) 0.045*** (0.0014) 0.013*** (0.0012) 0.019*** (0.001) 0.015*** (0.001) 0.004*** (0.001)
Experience −0.020*** (0.0003) −0.015*** (0.0003) −0.005*** (0.0002) −0.025*** (0.00054) −0.020*** (0.00051) −0.005*** (0.0003) −0.013*** (0.001) −0.010*** (0.001) −0.003*** (0.001)
Other −0.064*** (0.002) −0.035*** (0.001) −0.030*** (0.001) −0.065*** (0.0018) −0.041*** (0.0015) −0.024*** (0.0013) −0.062*** (0.004) −0.010*** (0.002) −0.051*** (0.003)
Total Composition Effect −0.066*** (0.003) −0.067*** (0.002) 0.001 (0.002) −0.020*** (0.0024) −0.015*** (0.0022) −0.005*** (0.0015) −0.052*** (0.01) −0.038*** (0.006) −0.014** (0.006)

p < 0.01,

p < 0.05,

p < 0.1.

Source: Compiled by authors based on ECH 2005, 2006 and 2014, 2015 data.

Detailed Decomposition of the structure effect, wage variation between 2005 and 2015, based on Unconditional Quantile Partial Effects

Inequality measure All Males Females



90-10 90-50 50-10 90-10 90-50 50-10 90-10 90-50 50-10
Female 0.063*** (0.0043) 0.072*** (0.0032) −0.00909*** (0.0024)
Information −0.112*** (0.0086) −0.015** (0.0058) −0.09663*** (0.0071) −0.159*** (0.008) −0.08*** (0.006) −0.079*** (0.005) −0.062*** (0.018) 0.012 (0.01) −0.074*** (0.017)
Automation −0.021** (0.01) 0.012*** (0.0047) −0.03344*** (0.0078) −0.060*** (0.007) −0.009 (0.006) −0.051*** (0.005) −0.034** (0.016) −0.060*** (0.009) 0.026** (0.013)
Education −0.121*** (0.0082) −0.103*** (0.0057) −0.01804*** (0.0049) −0.136*** (0.013) −0.114*** (0.009) −0.021** (0.009) −0.052*** (0.014) −0.073*** (0.01) 0.021 (0.014)
Experience 0.013** (0.0053) 0.046*** (0.0057) −0.0334*** (0.0068) 0.006 (0.008) 0.037*** (0.008) −0.031*** (0.008) 0.021 (0.014) 0.052*** (0.009) −0.031*** (0.012)
Other 0.015*** (0.0044) −0.003 (0.0035) 0.01813*** (0.0044) 0.040*** (0.005) 0.005 (0.003) 0.035*** (0.004) −0.023** (0.011) −0.008 (0.006) −0.014 (0.01)
Constant −0.224*** (0.0176) −0.198*** (0.0075) −0.02593 (0.0177) −0.253*** (0.014) −0.165*** (0.014) −0.089*** (0.012) −0.216*** (0.043) −0.068*** (0.015) −0.148*** (0.037)
Total Structure Effect −0.387*** (0.0033) −0.188*** (0.0016) −0.1984*** (0.0026) −0.562*** (0.005) −0.326*** (0.002) −0.236*** (0.004) −0.365*** (0.01) −0.146*** (0.006) −0.219*** (0.008)

p < 0.01,

p < 0.05,

p < 0.1.

Source: Compiled by authors based on ECH 2005, 2006 and 2014, 2015 data.

In the case of the female covariate, the composition effect has a very small incidence, while the structure effect is positive on the 90-10 gap, which means that it drives an increase in wage inequality. This effect arises from the behavior of the top half of the wage distribution, as its influence is negative but almost zero in the bottom half. This result is related to two interesting features: women’s wages at the top increase more than men’s and the gender wage gap increases except at the top of the distribution, as we show in the next section.

The ‘information task content’ plays a clear role through the structure effect into the distribution of wages. In the case of male wages in the direction of reducing inequality, along the whole distribution. However, for women it has practically no impact at the top half of the distribution but reduce it at the bottom half.

Although when not correcting for selection bias this covariate tends to increase inequality. In contrast, the composition effect of such covariate is almost zero for men but positive and significant for women at the bottom half.

Concerning the effect of education, it determined a reduction of overall inequality on wage distribution. The composition effect induced an increase of inequality but the structure effect more than compensated such an influence, particularly at the top half. Furthermore, composition and structure effects linked to education are a bit more important for males than for females. Meanwhile, inequality reduced due to structure effects, except at the lower part of female wage distribution. Those results can be explained by a moderated increase of the education level of Uruguayan workers and the sharp decline of returns to tertiary education over the period of analysis. Also, notice that tertiary education premiums cuts were greater for males than for females (see Tables 7 and 8), while returns to middle education for females increased at the lower half of the distribution.

Regarding the ‘automation task content’, our results show it also contributes to reduce inequality but it is much less important than the ‘information task content’;. In the case of males as expected it reduced inequality at the lower end of the wage distribution and has no significant incidence at the top of the distribution. On the contrary, in the case of females, its major influence is at the upper half of the distribution, while at the lower end it even contributes to increase inequality. The reduction in inequality is enhanced by the composition effect in the case of women. It is worth noting that the returns to information task content and education are positive along the distribution, but this is not the case for automation, which makes it more difficult to rationalize the effect of that variable. To illustrate this we can see that, the returns to automation are positive at the 10th and 50th percentiles but negative at the 90th percentile, so an increase in the automation task index would drive wages up at the bottom of the distribution but down at the top. However, we can conclude that a higher share of more automated occupations among men contribute to partially offset the reduction in inequality among men, tough in a minor grade.

We consider an additional set of covariates, including indicators of whether the person has a formal job, lives in the capital city and is married. The aggregated effect of such covariates, reported as ‘other’ is significant and also contributes to the reduction of inequality, mainly due to the role played by formality (consistently with results found by Amarante et al. (2016)). In this case, the reduction in inequality was led by composition effects. Although, results are valid both for men and women, in the case of the first ones composition and structure effects act in opposite directions, while in the case of the latter, structure effects enhance the reduction of inequality. These results are consistent with the sharp increase of workers registered at the social security system during the period of analysis, and specially of domestic workers in the case of women.

It is important to notice that the causal interpretation of the detailed decomposition relies on very restrictive assumptions that may not hold in our context. However, the detailed decomposition that we perform is still useful to have insights about which factors are behind observed changes in the wage distribution.

Among the omitted factors, it is worth mentioning that important institutional reforms took place in Uruguay during the period covered. On the one hand was the introduction of a progressive personal income tax scheme and the inception of a Health reform, which particularly affected higher wages. On the other hand, the restoration of wage bargaining process and promoted substantial increases in minimum wages, which affected the lower end of the distribution. Several studies prove that these reforms had a positive impact in reducing inequality (see Amarante et al. (2010); Perazzo and Rodriguez (2007), (Cabrera and Cárpena (2012)), Alves et al. (2012), Yapor (2018), Katzkowicz et al. (2020)). It is beyond the scope of this paper to discuss these relevant factors, and in our specification they will be captured mainly by the constant’s coefficient (which capture returns to unobservable). Indeed, results regarding the detailed decomposition indicate that the contribution of returns to unobservables to the reduction of inequality is very large: the constant term captures 58, 45 and 49 per cent of the aggregated wage structure effect, over the 90-10 gap, for the whole population, males and females, respectively. These figures are even much higher when the estimation does not control for selection bias (see Table A6 in the Supplementary Appendix).

To sum up, changes in the return to education and occupational task measures linked to technology (as captured by the occupation task measures included in the RIF regressions), have a significant contribution to explain the changes in the distribution of wages observed during the period of analysis.

Task contents together, -technology- has a positive effect in reducing inequality at the higher end of the distribution as well as at the lower end. However, while its contribution to changes of men wages is more important at the top end, in the case of women it is more relevant to explain changes at the lower end.

As predicted by ALM’s routinization hypothesis, a substitution effect would have prevailed at the lower middle of the distribution. However, contrary to expected the impacts of information overcomes those of automation. In the case of women, at the lower end the effect of automation is even positive to increase inequality. However, since contrary to expected, technology as a whole also contribute to reduce inequality at the top of the distribution it does not have de polarizing effect predicted by the ALM routinization hypothesis. Nevertheless, regarding the top end of women wage distribution, we find a supplementation effect of the information content of task in the case of women which is partially offset by a substitution effect of the automation content of task, resulting in an equalizing effect. In the case of men however, the expected complementary effect is not observed. On the contrary, what is seen is a significant reduction in the premium to the information content of tasks. Then, contrary to expected a substitution rather than a complementary effect might have prevailed at the upper end of the distribution of men’s wages.

The gender wage gap

In this section, we analyze the gender wage gap, defined as the difference between male and female log hourly wages. We first compute it along the wage distribution in 2005 and 2015, and then estimate its change between these years. To do the latter, analogous to a difference-in-differences approach, we perform the following equation: E(RIFτ(y)|tMale)=α(τ)+β(τ)t+δ(τ)Male+φU(τ)t*Male E\left( {{RIF_\tau }\left( y \right)\,|\,t\,{\rm{Male}}} \right) = \alpha \left( \tau \right) + \beta \left( \tau \right)t + \delta \left( \tau \right)Male + {\varphi _U}\left( \tau \right)t*Male where y is de logarithm of wages and t = 0,1 stand for years 2005 and 2015 respectively.

In that context, φU(τ) captures the change of gender wage gap at each percentile τ. Note that if positive, it means that the gender wage gap has increased over de period at percentile τ. Δ^Δt,MFτ=ϕU(τ)=(Qτ(y|t=1Male=1)Qτ(y|t=1Male=0))(Qτ(y|t=0Male=1)Qτ(y|t=0Male=0)) \matrix{ {\hat \Delta _{\Delta t,M\,F}^\tau = {\phi _U}\left( \tau \right)} \hfill & { = \left( {{Q_\tau }\left( {y\,|\,t = 1\,Male\, = \,1} \right) - \,Q\tau \left( {y\,|\,t = 1\,Male\, = 0} \right)} \right)} \hfill \cr {} \hfill & { - \left( {Q\tau \left( {y\,|\,t = 0\,Male\, = \,1} \right) - \,Q\tau \left( {y\,|\,t = 0\,Male\, = 0} \right)} \right)} \hfill \cr }

Figure 8.a presents the gender wage gap and figure 8.b shows its variation between years. In 2005 the gender wage gap is around 20 per cent, then jumping to almost 30 per cent at the top 90th, in line with the so-called ‘glass ceiling’ phenomenon. However, in 2015 we observe a different phenomenon: until the 70th percentile, the gender wage gap increases compared to 2005 with a slightly decreasing pattern, but at the very top it diminished.

Figure 8

Log-hourly wages gender gap, 2005 and 2015.

Notes: i. The gender gap is calculated by subtracting men’s wages minus women’s wages. ii. Solid lines are point estimates, dashed lines indicate the lower and upper bound of the 95 confidence interval. Bootstrapped standard errors are calculated (200 replicates) within each 10 imputed data sets and then Rubin’s rules are applied. iii. Estimates of the gender gap without correction for self-selection are reported in the Supplementary Appendix.

Therefore, our results indicate that, despite the huge reduction in inequality that we document in previous sections, the gender wage gap increased significantly during the analyzed period, except at the top of the wage distribution. As shown in gure 8.b., this conclusion holds both with and without the correction for selection bias. These results are consistent with those obtained by Colacce et al. (2020) for the period 2004–2018.

We take the analysis further by addressing the influence of characteristics and returns on the change in the gender wage gap using two methodological approaches. Firstly, we add covariates to the equation (3) and compare the results between specifications that include or exclude a specific covariate.

Note that this is a standard approach in the gender wage gap analysis literature, but here we apply it to analyze changes in the wage gap rather than the gap itself.

Second, we decompose the change of the gender wage gap into different terms that capture how changes in characteristics and returns influenced its variation.

Gender wage gap variation and the influence of labor attributes

To cope with the first approach, we add covariates that capture labour attributes into the equation (3) such that the model to estimate is: E(RIFτ(y)|tMaleX)=α(τ)+β(τ)t+δ(τ)Male+φC(τ)t*Male+π(t,Male,τ)X E\left( {{RIF_\tau }\left( y \right)\,|\,t\,{\rm{Male}}\,X} \right) = \alpha \left( \tau \right) + \beta \left( \tau \right)t + \delta \left( \tau \right)Male + {\varphi _C}\left( \tau \right)t*Male + \pi \left( {t,\,{\rm{Male}},\,\tau } \right)X Where the covariates included in vector X are, education, experience, region, whether the worker is formal or not, marital status and our information and automation task content indexes. We use the function π(t,Male,τ) to indicate that the specification allows returns to each attribute at every percentile τ to vary between periods, and between males and females within each period.

It should be noted that the difference between φU(τ) estimated from the ‘raw’ wage gap equation (3) and the φC(τ) considering the observables in the equation (4) can be interpreted as the contribution of the attributes to the change in the gender wage gap over the period of analysis.

Figure 9.a plots these estimates and shows that the attributes considered drive an increase in the gender wage gap in the top half of the distribution, since the specification that does not include them is above the one that does. Such results could reflect changes in the mean of the covariates or in their returns, but this approach is not able to disentangle these features.

Figure 9

Log-hourly wages gender gap variation between 2005 and 2015, unconditional and after controlling for observed characteristics. With correction for selection bias.

Notes: i. Figures correspond to the estimation of the variation of the gender gap using an approach analogous to the diff in diff estimator. Unconditional stands for the estimation without any controls. Figure (a) compares the unconditional variation of the gap with respect to that which control for all selected characteristics (Information, Automation, Education, Experience, Informal worker, Region and Marital status). Figures (b) to (e) compares the model with all regressors with those excluding indicated variables. iii. Solid lines are point estimates, dashed lines indicate the lower and upper bound of the 95 confidence interval. Bootstrapped standard errors are calculated (200 replicates) within each 10 imputed data sets and then Rubin’s rules are applied.

Regarding our measures of the technological content of tasks (Information and Automation), we find that technology acts in the direction of increasing the wage gap over the period. This is because the estimated coefficients of the specification that does not include these measures are above those of the one that includes all covariates.

Figures 9 (c) and (d) replicate a similar exercise but consider each variable separately. They show that both automation and information content increased the gender wage gap at the extremes of the distribution. However, when the information and automation task content measures are considered separately, their influence, after correcting for selection, is not significant at the 5 per cent confidence level, except at the top of the distribution. It should be noted, however, that without controlling for selection bias, the differences go in the same direction and are statistically significant (see Figure A2 in the Supplementary Appendix).

Education also plays a role in changing the gender wage gap, but in the opposite way to technology, i.e. by reducing the gap, as we show in figure 9e. This conclusion also holds when the estimates do not correct for selection.

In summary, our first methodological approximation to analyze the change of the gender wage gap, indicates that the full set of attributes, as well as the technology content measures, drove the gender wage gap up, while education drove it down. However, it should be noted that, while this approach provides valuable evidence, it also has some shortcomings. The first one is that it does not allow for an assessment of whether the influence of attributes comes from changes in mean characteristics and/or their returns, as mentioned above. Furthermore, although the consideration of alternative specifications provides insight into how job attributes have influenced the gender wage gap, these results suffer from the well-known problem of ‘path dependence’. That is, the method is not able to disentangle precisely the contribution of each covariate. In the following subsection, we address these problems with another approach.

Decomposing the gender wage gap variation

In this section, we provide further evidence on the influence of job attributes on the change in the gender wage gap. To do so, we apply similar decomposition techniques to those used previously to analyze wage change between years. However, we now have to decompose a double difference. Our approach is based on the estimation of the following equation (analogous to equation 1), E(RIFτ(y,t)|g,X)=Xγ(τ)tg E\left( {{RIF_\tau }\left( {y,\,t} \right)\,|\,g,\,X} \right) = X'\gamma \left( \tau \right)_t^g where t = 0,1 stand for years 2005 and 2015 respectively and g is M (Male), and F (Female). Given this model, the decomposition of the wage gap at percentile τ in each period t can be expressed as: Δ^t,MFτ=wagestructureeffect(X¯tFι)(γ^(τ)tMγ^(τ)tF)+compositioneffect(X¯tMX¯tF)γ^(τ)tM \hat \Delta _{t,\,M\,F}^\tau = \overbrace {{\rm{wage}}\,{\rm{structure}}\,{\rm{effect}}}^{\left( {\bar X_t^F\iota } \right)'\left( {\hat \gamma \left( \tau \right)_t^M - \hat \gamma \left( \tau \right)_t^F} \right)} + \overbrace {{\rm{composition}}\,{\rm{effect}}}^{\left( {\bar X_t^M - \bar X_t^F} \right)'\hat \gamma \left( \tau \right)_t^M}

Our first step is to separately estimate the aggregated decomposition of the gender wage gap in each period (figure 10.a). We find that in 2005 both, the composition and the structure effects, contribute to generate a gender wage gap, where males hourly wages are larger than those of females. The composition and structure effects are similar up to percentile 30, but from this point onwards the composition effect decreases while the structure effect increases, and at the 90th percentile the former becomes even negative (2 p.p.) while the latter is always positive scaling up to 30 p.p. at the top quantile. These results indicate that both average characteristics and returns can explain the gender pay gap in 2005, but returns play a major role at the half top of the distribution.

Figure 10a also shows that, in 2015, the composition effect decreases and the structure effect increases compared to 2005, almost in parallel along the distribution (except for the structure effect at the 90th percentile). Moreover, the composition effect becomes negative from the 30th percentile onwards. This means that, contrary to 2005, in 2015 women’s job attributes were, on average, better than men’s, the gender wage gap against women became larger.

Figure 10

Aggregated decomposition of the gender wage gap and the gender gap change.

Notes: i. Figure (a) shows the aggregated composition and structure effects of gender wage gap in 2005 and 2015. Covariates include: Information, Automation, Education, Experience, Informal worker, Region and Marital status. ii. Figure (b) decompose gender wage gap change between 2005 and 2015 into the aggregated composition, structure and interaction effects, as defined in section 6) iii. Solid lines are point estimates, dashed lines indicate the lower and upper bound of the 95 confidence interval. Bootstrapped standard errors are calculated (200 replicates) within each 10 imputed data sets and then Rubin’s rules are applied.

We move forward to analyze the variation in the gender wage gap over time, which can be defined as: Δ^Δt,MFτ=Δ^1,MFτΔ^0,MFτ \hat \Delta _{\Delta t,M\,F}^\tau = \hat \Delta _{1,\,M\,F}^\tau - \hat \Delta _{0,\,M\,F}^\tau

It is important to note that the simple difference between the wage structure (composition) effect between periods 0 and 1 does not correctly reflect how changes in returns (characteristics) have contributed to the variation of the gender wage gap, because such differences mix shifts in returns and characteristics.

There are many alternatives to decompose the change of the gap over time, in this paper, we decompose it in three terms: structure, composition and interaction: Δ^Δt,MFτ=Δ^Δt(γ)τ+Δ^Δt(X)τ+Δ^Δt(γ)Δt(X)τ \hat \Delta _{{\Delta _t},M\,F}^\tau = \hat \Delta _{{\Delta _t}\left( \gamma \right)}^\tau + \hat \Delta _{{\Delta _t}\left( X \right)}^\tau + \hat \Delta _{{\Delta _t}\left( \gamma \right){\Delta _t}\left( X \right)}^\tau where (omitting the argument τ);

The wage structure is: (X¯0MX¯0F)(γ^1Mγ^0M)+X¯0F((γ^1Mγ^1F)(γ^0Mγ^0F)) \left( {\bar X_0^M - \bar X_0^F} \right)\left( {\hat \gamma _1^M - \hat \gamma _0^M} \right) + \bar X_0^F\left( {\left( {\hat \gamma _1^M - \hat \gamma _1^F} \right) - \left( {\hat \gamma _0^M - \hat \gamma _0^F} \right)} \right)

The composition effect is: (X¯1FX¯0F)(γ^0Mγ^0F)+((X¯1MX¯1F)(X¯0MX¯0F))γ^0M \left( {\bar X_1^F - \bar X_0^F} \right)\left( {\hat \gamma _0^M - \hat \gamma _0^F} \right) + \left( {\left( {\bar X_1^M - \bar X_1^F} \right) - \left( {\bar X_0^M - \bar X_0^F} \right)} \right)\hat \gamma _0^M

The interaction effect is: ((X¯1MX¯1F)(X¯0MX¯0F))(γ^1Mγ^0M)+(X¯1FX¯0F)((γ^1Mγ^0F)(γ^0Mγ^0F)) \left( {\left( {\bar X_1^M - \bar X_1^F} \right) - \left( {\bar X_0^M - \bar X_0^F} \right)} \right)\,\,\left( {\hat \gamma _1^M - \hat \gamma _0^M} \right) + \left( {\bar X_1^F - \bar X_0^F} \right)\left( {\left( {\hat \gamma _1^M - \hat \gamma _0^F} \right) - \left( {\hat \gamma _0^M - \hat \gamma _0^F} \right)} \right)

The wage structure effect captures how changes in returns contribute to narrowing/widening the gender wage gap in the period covered, under the assumption that average characteristics do not change over time. In other words, as if the characteristics remain as the beginning of the period. Conversely, the composition effect is capturing the influence of the variation in female characteristics and in the characteristics gap, assuming that returns do not change, and is measured at returns in period 0. Notice that the constant only enters into the structure effect, through its second term. Finally, the interaction effect reflects the difference between the observed gap variation and the sum of the wage structure and composition effects, since both characteristics and returns change over time.

Figure 10b shows the aggregate decomposition of the change in the gender wage gap into the three terms defined above. The composition term is negative, while the structure term is positive; both are almost flat in the distribution up to the 80th percentile, but the former increases and the latter decreases from this point onwards. In turn, the interaction term is close to zero along the distribution. This result is consistent with the previous finding, which indicates that women’s job attributes improved over the period, but the market remuneration for these attributes deteriorated compared to that of men. The opposite conclusion is reached when looking at the upper part of the distribution, where the composition term approaches zero and the structure term becomes negative. The latter indicates that the difference in returns at the 90th percentile moderates compared to 2005.

An advantage of our approach is that it allows us to proceed with the detailed decomposition of the influence of any variable of interest. We do that to estimate the influence of our measures of technological task content and education on the change of the gender wage gap.

Although we concentrate our analysis on these covariates, decomposition considers all attributes mentioned above.

Figure 11 shows results.

Figure 11

Detailed decomposition of the gender gap change

Notes: Figures show the composition, structure and total effects of covariates Information, Automation and Education to the change of the gender wage gap between 2005 and 2015 as defined in section 6). ii. Solid lines are point estimates, dashed lines indicate the lower and upper bound of the 95 confidence interval. Bootstrapped standard errors are calculated (200 replicates) within each 10 imputed data sets and then Rubin’s rules are applied.

Concerning the overall influence of the information task content we find that it acts in the direction of reducing the gender wage gap, in particular at the top half of the distribution (Figure 11.a). The composition term is negative, mainly due to the fact that in 2015 women were employed in jobs with a higher information task content than in 2005, while in 2005 the returns to these tasks were higher for women than for men, except at the top of the distribution. As for the structure effect, it is not significant up to the 80th percentile, but then becomes negative, indicating that changes in information content returns acted at the top of the distribution in the sense of reducing the gender wage gap.

In contrast, the overall influence of the automation task content drives an increase of the gender wage gap, it is U-shaped and its effect is close to zero at the central part of the distribution (Figure 11a). The contribution of the composite effect is negative but increasing, turning positive at the top of the distribution. This could be explained by the reduction in the degree of automation in employments performed by women at the top of the distribution over the period (Table 5). On the other hand, the structure effect is positive along the whole wage distribution, which can be explained by an increase in the gap in returns to automation task content.

With respect to education, the composition effect is zero at the bottom and increases monotonically up to 0.06 at the top. This effect is positive because the return gap is positive in 2005 and women education level increased between 2005 and 2015. At the same time, the increase in men education level was a little bit higher than that of women. The structure term clearly predominates and is negative and almost flat across the distribution indicating that changes on the return to education reduced the gender wage gap. This result, is mostly due to a reduction in the gap of education returns over the period and a reduction in returns to education observed during the period, specially at the top of the distribution. This reduction on the wage gap at the top could be explained by the effects of the tax and the health reforms. As noted before, both reforms contributed to reduce inequality over the whole wage distribution, given that they reduced in a higher proportion the actual wage received by workers mainly at the top of the distribution. Since in 2005, men wages at the top of the distribution were higher than women wages, in other words the wage gap was positive, the reforms implemented after 2008, affected more men than women wages and in that sense contributed to reduce the wage gap.

To sum up, the gender wage gap of private employees increases over the period of analysis, except at the top of the distribution. Gender wage gap is almost flat along the distribution until 80th percentile, as well as its change between 2005 and 2015. Meanwhile, at the 90th percentile the wage gap is significantly larger than at lower percentiles in 2005, while in 2015 it is not. The rise in the gender wage gap over the period covered was due to changes in the returns gap, which were partially offset by changes in the composition effects, except at the very top of the distribution. Regarding covariates, it is interesting to highlight that technology favored the increase of the gender wage gap while education worked in the opposite way.

Concluding Remarks

In this paper we focus on the incidence of technology, as measured by the task content of occupations, to changes in the distribution of wages of private employees and in the gender wage gap. We quantify the contribution of these factors relative to other covariates, particularly education. We do so by using a decomposition method proposed by Firpo et al. (2009) based on the recentered influence function regression approach. To address the issue of selection bias we impute salaries for the unemployed, using multiple stochastic imputation techniques. We study the case of Uruguay for the period 2005–2015, when wage inequality presented a sharp decrease. Although the evolution of Uruguayan wages are not in line with the polarization predicted by ALM’s routinization hypothesis, middle wages did increase less than low wages, as predicted by this hypothesis.

As well as other studies (Amarante et al. (2016); Yapor (2018); among others) we find evidence that returns to education contributes to the decrease of wage inequality. Furthermore, our estimates suggest that technology is also relevant to explain the observed changes in the distribution of wages in the period of analysis, which is consistent with the extended adoption of technology by economic sectors. What is more, as expected, considering the dissimilar distribution of employment within sectors between men and women, we find that the impact of technology over wage distribution is also different between genders, affecting also the gender wage gap and its change over time.

Like Brussevich et al. (2018) we find that also in Uruguay women are over represented in tasks with higher degree of automation and underrepresented in task with higher degree of information that is that require more analytical or abstract thinking. Second, the change in inequality of wages of men was led by the top end of the distribution while for women this change was more equally distributed along the whole range of the distribution. Third, the wage structure effects linked to technology, as captured by the occupation task measures, has an equalizing impact between 2005 and 2015. Considering the 90-10 gap, information and automation complement each other to reduce inequality. In the case of women, however, when considering the upper and lower part of the wage distribution the influences of our task content indexes go in opposite direction, but the net effect is a reduction in wage inequality. Therefore, our results do not accompanied neither the routinization hypothesis nor the technology skill-biased predictions, since for Uruguay in the period covered technology has an equalizing effect.

Regarding the gender wage gap, results show that along the distribution up to the 80th percentile it increases significantly over the period of analysis. Although, women improved their labor attributes more than men over the period, returns gaps against females became higher. We also find that technology drives up the gender wage gap while education brings it down. Nevertheless, at the top of the distribution the gender wage gap decreases substantially. Interestingly, we also find that education and information complement each other to push down the wage gap, while automation acts in the opposite direction.

Summing up, introducing covariates that captures the technology tasks content of occupations into the analysis contributes to understand changes in the wage distribution and in the gender wage gap. Indeed, including these covariates allows us to provide evidence that during 2005 – 2015 technology has an equalizing effect over wage inequality and also influences the gender gap. However, its effects over the gender wage gap is mixed: while the information content of tasks drives it down, the automation content of tasks drives it up.