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Migrating out of mega-cities: Evidence from Brazil

Eva-Maria Egger
Eva-Maria Egger
   | 26 mar 2021
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Publicado en línea: 26 mar 2021
Páginas: -
Aceptado: 17 may 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/izajodm-2021-0003
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© 2021 Eva-Maria Egger, published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Figure 1

Map of greater regions and metropolitan cities of Brazil.
Map of greater regions and metropolitan cities of Brazil.

Figure 2

Out-migration rate from metropolitan cities from 2004 to 2009.
Out-migration rate from metropolitan cities from 2004 to 2009.

Figure 3

Kernel density plots of actual and predicted nominal wages of metropolitan out-migrants with matching.
Kernel density plots of actual and predicted nominal wages of metropolitan out-migrants with matching.

Figure 4

Kernel density plots of actual and predicted real wages of metropolitan out-migrants with matching.
Kernel density plots of actual and predicted real wages of metropolitan out-migrants with matching.

Figure A1

Price instrument (average wages in contiguous microregiões) and prices (average municipality rents in microregião).
Price instrument (average wages in contiguous microregiões) and prices (average municipality rents in microregião).

Balancing statistics after matching

Multivariate L1 distance: 0.78689126
Univariate imbalance: L1 Mean Min 25% 50% 75% Max
Age at migration 0.04019 −0.15014 0 0 0 −1 0
Sex 0.06926 −0.06926 0 0 0 0 0
Education level 0.03117 −0.03117 0 0 0 0 0
Race 0.00467 −0.00467 0 0 0 0 0
City of origin 0.00479 0.00479 0 0 0 0 0
Marital status 0.02571 −0.02571 0 0 0 0 0
Sector of activity 0.00355 0.00355 0 0 0 0 0

Migrants between metropolitan and non-metropolitan microregiões between 2009 and 2010

Destination
Non-metropolitan Metropolitan
Origin N % N %
Non-metropolitan 380,627 46.9 167,781 20.7
Metropolitan 162,647 20.1 99,143 12.2

Labor market characteristics of migrants and non-migrants 2010

Non-metropolitan residents Metropolitan out-migrants Metropolitan residents
Unemployed 0.05 0.12 0.06
Log (monthly wages) 6.59 6.95 6.98
Sector
Formal private 0.40 0.43 0.56
Formal public 0.06 0.08 0.06
Informal 0.26 0.23 0.21
Self-employed 0.02 0.02 0.01
Small business 0.26 0.24 0.15
Industry, ISIC
Agriculture 0.26 0.14 0.09
Industry 0.22 0.27 0.21
Services 0.38 0.44 0.54
Public services 0.15 0.17 0.17

Destination choice conditional on migration, alternative specific logit

(1) (2) (3)
Wage measure: Expected wages (log) Matched expected wages (log)
Price measure: Rent per room (log) Wages in neighboring locations (log)
Difference in:
Wages 0.054 (0.175) −0.041 (0.234) −0.069 (0.244)
Prices −0.173 (0.213) −0.805 (0.730) −0.822 (0.631)
Population (log) −0.019 (0.068) −0.040 (0.064) 0.011 (0.080)
Homicide rate 0.004 (0.004)
Health facilities 0.008*** (0.003)
Health quality index −1.292* (0.758)
Education quality index 1.569* (0.929)
Destination specific:
Distance to origin (log) −0.524*** (0.085) −0.523*** (0.087) −0.521*** (0.087)
Other state −1.800*** (0.265) −1.850*** (0.258) −1.853*** (0.250)
Observations 5730782 5730782 5730782
Wald chi2 742 1222 1367
Number of cases 14509 14509 14509
Number of alternatives 514 514 514

Differences in actual and predicted wages for metropolitan out-migrants, by education level

High-educated
Log (nominal hourly wages) N Mean
Observed 3,107 2.846
Predicted 3,107 2.930
Difference −0.084***
Log (real hourly wages) N Mean
Observed 3,107 −1.270
Predicted 3,107 −1.544
Difference 0.274***
Low-educated
Log (nominal hourly wages) N Mean
Observed 12,317 1.556
Predicted 12,317 1.851
Difference −0.295***
Log (real hourly wages) N Mean
Observed 12,317 −2.481
Predicted 12,317 −2.611
Difference 0.130***

Differences of actual and predicted wages for metropolitan out-migrants, before matching

Log (nominal hourly wages) N Mean
Observed 14,810 1.767
Predicted 14,810 1.874
Difference −0.107***
Log (real hourly wages) N Mean
Observed 14,810 −2.466
Predicted 14,810 0.303
Difference 0.303***
Log (real hourly wages) N Mean
Hedonic price as denominator
Observed 14,810 −2.353
Predicted 14,810 0.204
Difference 0.204***

Matching summary

Number of strata: 9,796
Number of matched strata: 3,785
Non-migrants Migrants
All 683,517 16,172
Matched 587,346 15,401
Unmatched 96,171 771

Differences in actual and predicted real wages for metropolitan out-migrants using hedonic prices as a denominator, after matching

Log (real hourly wages) N Mean
Observed 15,424 −2.105
Predicted 15,424 −2.155
Difference 0.050***

Observed and predicted real wage differences using different measures of living costs, metropolitan in-migrants

Log (real hourly wages)
High skilled
Skill-specific mean rents N Mean
Observed 1,068 −1.931
Predicted 1,068 −1.974
Difference 0.043*
Skill-specific median rents N Mean
Observed 1,068 −1.795
Predicted 1,068 −1.894
Difference 0.099***
Low skilled
Skill-specific mean rents N Mean
Observed 7,357 −2.775
Predicted 7,357 −2.501
Difference −0.274***
Skill-specific median rents N Mean
Observed 7,357 −2.680
Predicted 7,357 −2.394
Difference −0.286***

Difference between non-metropolitan destination and metropolitan origin comparing chosen destination to alternative destinations

Difference between destination and origin in Chosen destination Alternative destinations t-statistic, difference in mean
Expected hourly wages (log) −0.53 −0.61 −24.7
Matched expected wages (log) −2.73 −2.79 −16.2
Rent per room (log) −0.55 −0.64 −21.9
IV (wages in neighboring MRs, log) −0.10 −0.14 −23.5
Population in thousands −5,605 −6,326 −17.1
Homicide rate −17.66 −14.11 18.2
Health facilities (per 100,000) 25.49 26.46 8.1
Health provision quality index (0–1) −0.03 −0.05 −24.0
Education provision quality index (0–1) −0.00 −0.04 −32.8
Distance to origin (km) 573 1,295 108.6
Other state than origin 0.45 0.92 202.4

Regression of housing prices on housing characteristics, OLS estimates

log(rent per room)
Urban area 0.256*** (0.005)
Type of dwelling (Base = House)
Townhouse/condominion 0.146*** (0.003)
Flat 0.396*** (0.002)
Hut 0.196*** (0.006)
Wall material (Base = Bricks coated)
Bricks not coated −0.160*** (0.002)
Wood −0.265*** (0.003)
Plaster coated −0.461*** (0.015)
Plaster not coated −0.521*** (0.020)
Wood unprepared −0.344*** (0.010)
Straw −0.073 (0.155)
Others −0.146*** (0.015)
Bathroom (Base = none)
1 −0.213*** (0.006)
2 −0.095*** (0.006)
3 0.047*** (0.007)
4 0.220*** (0.012)
5 0.355*** (0.027)
6 0.517*** (0.054)
7 0.430*** (0.119)
8 1.046*** (0.237)
9 or more 0.356*** (0.083)
Sanitation (Base = General sanitation network)
Septic sump −0.089*** (0.002)
Rudimentary Sump −0.200*** (0.002)
Ditch −0.225*** (0.005)
River, lake or sea −0.152*** (0.004)
Other −0.212*** (0.009)
Waste water (Base = General distribution network)
Well on property 0.007** (0.003)
Well outside property −0.088*** (0.005)
Carro-pipa −0.072*** (0.014)
Rainwater cistern −0.074*** (0.028)
Rain water other −0.097 (0.068)
Rivers, lakes, etc. −0.081*** (0.023)
Other −0.155*** (0.010)
Well in village 0.165** (0.066)
Canalization access (Base = Yes, in min. 1 room)
Yes, only on the property −0.052*** (0.004)
No −0.148*** (0.006)
Garbage collection (Base = Collected directly)
Collected in collective −0.054*** (0.002)
Burnt −0.229*** (0.008)
Buried −0.017 (0.043)
Tossed in a public area −0.229*** (0.008)
Tossed in river, lake, or sea −0.195*** (0.036)
Other 0.005 (0.027)
Electricity provision (base = Yes by the company)
Yes, other −0.094*** (0.010)
No electricity −0.238*** (0.021)
Constant 4.235*** (0.016)
Microregion dummies Yes
Observations 927,192
R-squared 0.539

Characteristics of metropolitan and non-metropolitan microregiões in 2010

Metropolitan Non-metropolitan
Mean Coeff. of variation Mean Coeff. of variation
Population 2,679,687 1.11 213,680 0.79
Room rent (R$, median) 72.47 0.23 45.22 0.42
Hourly wage (R$) 12.11 0.22 7.23 0.29
Share of
Unskilled workers 0.37 0.09 0.37 0.14
Skilled workers 0.31 0.11 0.40 0.14
High-skilled workers 0.24 0.17 0.16 0.23
Formally employed 0.58 0.11 0.40 0.36
Unemployed 0.06 0.29 0.05 0.41
Share of workers in
Agriculture 0.09 0.36 0.30 0.39
Industry 0.21 0.23 0.18 0.37
Services 0.53 0.08 0.35 0.23
Public services 0.11 0.25 0.12 0.24
People living in
Adequate living conditions 0.57 0.28 0.36 0.67
Other measures
GDP growth 2005–2010 0.16 0.31 0.18 0.79
Health facilities (per 100,000) 16.40 0.42 41.86 0.35
Health quality index (0–1) 0.82 0.09 0.79 0.11
Education quality index (0–1) 0.77 0.14 0.73 0.14
Homicide rate (per 100,000) 38.00 0.54 18.58 0.77

Differences in actual and predicted wages for metropolitan out-migrants, after matching

Log (nominal hourly wages) N Mean
Observed 15,424 1.816
Predicted 15,424 2.069
Difference −0.253***
Log (real hourly wages) N Mean
Observed 15,424 −2.237
Predicted 15,424 −2.396
Difference 0.159***

Observed and predicted real wage differences using different measures of living costs

Log (real hourly wages)
Low skilled
Skill-specific mean rents N Mean
Observed 11,393 −2.456
Predicted 11,393 −2.691
Difference 0.235***
Skill-specific median rents N Mean
Observed 11,393 −2.365
Predicted 11,393 −2.589
Difference 0.224***
Median hedonic prices N Mean
Observed 11,393 −2.374
Predicted 11,393 −2.555
Difference 0.181***

Balancing statistics before matching

Multivariate L1 distance: 0.83541258
Univariate imbalance: L1 Mean Min 25% 50% 75% Max
Age at migration 0.10634 −2.2895 −1 −1 −3 −3 −1
Sex 0.0979 −0.0979 0 0 0 0 0
Education level 0.07352 −0.12922 0 −1 0 0 0
Race 0.00576 0.00576 0 0 0 0 0
City of origin 0.14503 0.72656 0 0 4 0 0
Marital status 0.01909 −0.0098 0 0 0 0 0
Sector of activity 0.15388 −0.96689 0 −3 −1 0 −1

Destination choice conditional on migration by the education of migrant, alternative specific logit

(1) (2) (3) (4)
Level of education: None or primary Lower secondary Upper secondary Higher
Difference in:
Matched expected wages (log) −0.279 (0.255) −0.161 (0.328) −0.023 (0.238) 0.336 (0.238)
Prices (IV) −1.360* (0.700) −1.205* (0.691) −0.686 (0.638) 0.202 (0.563)
Population (log) −0.028 (0.093) 0.049 (0.112) 0.022 (0.076) 0.036 (0.069)
Homicide rate 0.004 (0.004) 0.003 (0.003) 0.006 (0.004) 0.000 (0.004)
Health facilities 0.009*** (0.004) 0.010** (0.004) 0.008** (0.003) 0.002 (0.003)
Health quality index −0.787 (0.950) −0.754 (0.953) −1.668* (0.886) −2.184** (0.852)
Education quality index 1.684 (1.128) 1.238 (1.114) 1.977* (1.019) 1.055 (0.693)
Destination specific:
Distance to origin (log) −0.496*** (0.086) −0.574*** (0.081) −0.515*** (0.102) −0.538*** (0.104)
Other state −1.963*** (0.253) −1.808*** (0.261) −1.881*** (0.281) −1.663*** (0.282)
Observations 1871193 954109 1840023 1065457
Wald chi2 765 1255 1658 2850
Number of cases 4835 2425 4598 2651
Number of alternatives 514 514 514 514

Elasticities of significant covariates by sub-sample

Education No or primary Lower secondary Upper secondary Higher
Distance (log) −3.4 −4.0 −3.6 −3.7
Other state −1.8 −1.7 −1.7 −1.5
Health facilities 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1
Prices (IV) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Education quality −0.1 −0.1 −0.1 0.0
Health quality 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1

Coefficients and t-statistics of prediction of wages for migrants based on past migrants at the destination, OLS

Log(hourly wage)
Coefficient t-statistic
Age 0.048 18.250
Age squared −0.045 −13.939
Female −0.368 −61.567
White 0.123 19.385
Education (Base = none)
Primary, secondary incomplete 0.240 28.118
Secondary, higher incomplete 0.530 71.485
Higher complete 1.441 154.831
Mean (Log (hourly wage)) = −0.754

Characteristics of migrants and non-migrants 2010

Non-metropolitan residents Metropolitan out-migrants Metropolitan residents
Number of observations 4,184,904 19,318 1,598,869
Age 40.25 36.85 40.22
Female 0.41 0.37 0.45
White 0.51 0.51 0.51
Education level
None, primary incomplete 0.47 0.29 0.29
Primary, secondary incomplete 0.16 0.16 0.17
Secondary, higher incomplete 0.26 0.33 0.36
Higher complete 0.11 0.21 0.19

Variables and data sources

Variable Description Source
Variables for descriptive statistics and destination choice model on microregião level
Wages (IV) Average monthly wages in neighboring microregião RAIS*
Housing prices Average rent on microregião level Census, IBGE
Education provision quality index Index from 0 to 1, computed based on: Subscription rate of pre-school children, dropout rate FIRJAN**
Rate of teachers with higher education, average daily teaching hours, results of the IDEB (Indicator of development of education in Brazil)
Health provision quality index Index from 0 to 1, computed based on: Number of pre-natal consultations, deaths due to mal-defined causes, child-deaths due to evitable causes FIRJAN**
Number of health care facilities Per 100,000 inhabitants; include general hospitals, day hospitals, polyclinics, health point, general emergency, pharmacy, basic health center. CNES***
Homicide rate Per 100,000 inhabitants in 2008 Ipeadata
Distance to the state capital Indicator for market access (Fally et al. 2010) Ipeadata
GDP Log of GDP in 2009 Ipeadata
Distance between origin and destination Geodesic distance as an indicator for fixed moving costs, author's calculation from coordinates Census, IBGE
Additional variables for wage regression, on an individual level
Partner participation Dummy whether the partner is working Census, IBGE
The proportion of children in the household Census, IBGE
Marital status Separated/divorced/widowed, single, married Census, IBGE
Sector Public, private, informal, self-employed Census, IBGE
Industry 21 industries according to International Standard Industrial Classification of all Economic Activities (ISIC) Census, IBGE
Federal state 27 states Census, IBGE
Variables for matching, on an individual level
Age At the time of migration, i.e., one year ago Census, IBGE
Race White and non-white Census, IBGE
Education level Primary, middle, high-school, college Census, IBGE
Micro-region of origin/residency City of origin for migrants and city of residency for comparison group of non-migrants Census, IBGE
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