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Estimating the Relevance of First Offensive Shot Tactics in Table Tennis via Simulation Based on a Finite Markov Chain Model

F. Rothe

F. Rothe

Department Health and Sport Sciences, Technical University MunichGermany
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Rothe, F.
, 
R. Liu

R. Liu

  • China Table Tennis College, Shanghai Sports UniversityChina
  • Department Health and Sport Sciences, Technical University MunichGermany
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Liu, R.
 y 
M. Lames

M. Lames

Department Health and Sport Sciences, Technical University MunichGermany
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Lames, M.
  
02 mar 2025
Estimating the Relevance of First Offensive Shot Tactics in Table Tennis via Simulation Based on a Finite Markov Chain Model's Cover Image
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Publicado en línea: 02 mar 2025
Páginas: 1 - 16
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ijcss-2025-0001
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© 2025 F. Rothe et al., published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Figure 1.

Flow chart of the state transition model exemplified on a rally starting with service for player A.
Flow chart of the state transition model exemplified on a rally starting with service for player A.

Figure 2.

Example of a simulated change of the transition probability (%) between FOSA-S – Point B (Error) as well as the resulting winning probabilities (%) from the bronze medal match Lin vs Ovtcharov.
Example of a simulated change of the transition probability (%) between FOSA-S – Point B (Error) as well as the resulting winning probabilities (%) from the bronze medal match Lin vs Ovtcharov.

Figure 3

Transition matrix for the men’s final of the Tokyo Olympics 2020 between Fan Zhendong and Ma Long (4–11, 12–10, 8–11, 9–11, 11–3, 7–11).
Transition matrix for the men’s final of the Tokyo Olympics 2020 between Fan Zhendong and Ma Long (4–11, 12–10, 8–11, 9–11, 11–3, 7–11).

Figure 4.

Performance relevancies of transitions to following shots as well as error from FOSs and subsequent shots as absolute mean values.
Performance relevancies of transitions to following shots as well as error from FOSs and subsequent shots as absolute mean values.

Descriptive statistics of the performance relevance per state transition_

State Transitions Mean Median Max. Min. Std.
m w m w m w m w m w
Serve-Def * 0.32 0.13 0.27 0.08 2.12 1.59 −1.08 −1.34 0.60 0.58
Serve-FOS-S −0.22 −0.06 −0.18 −0.05 1.56 1.61 −2.12 −1.54 0.65 0.57
Serve-P 0.56 0.55 0.52 0.53 1.45 1.60 0.24 0.22 0.18 0.20
Serve-E −0.67 −0.66 −0.62 −0.59 −0.24 −0.30 −1.71 −1.57 0.23 0.24
Def-Def * 0.44 0.25 0.37 0.19 2.64 1.31 −0.71 −0.55 0.49 0.33
Def-FOS-D 0.12 0.24 0.08 0.20 1.40 1.62 −1.27 −1.63 0.49 0.56
Def-P 0.52 0.51 0.49 0.46 1.81 1.24 0.16 0.04 0.24 0.25
Def-E −0.91 −0.87 −0.84 −0.80 −0.12 −0.04 −2.17 −2.18 0.39 0.46
FOS-S-FOS+1 0.82 0.85 0.77 0.88 2.27 2.72 −0.31 −0.35 0.54 0.54
FOS-S-P 0.43 0.39 0.36 0.34 1.33 1.46 0.01 0.04 0.29 0.27
FOS-S-E −1.11 −1.07 −1.09 −1.02 −0.06 −0.04 −2.62 −2.72 0.55 0.55
FOS-D-FOS+1 0.61 0.66 0.55 0.66 2.01 1.91 −0.81 −0.52 0.56 0.52
FOS-D-P 0.54 0.46 0.52 0.41 1.30 1.20 0.06 0.06 0.32 0.28
FOS-D-E −1.07 −1.01 −1.02 −1.02 −0.09 −0.12 −2.45 −2.01 0.49 0.50
FOS+1-FOS+2 1.53 1.62 1.48 1.58 3.17 3.69 −0.24 0.15 0.72 0.73
FOS+1-P 0.90 0.82 0.85 0.71 2.69 1.96 0.04 0.20 0.47 0.40
FOS+1-E −2.12 −2.13 −2.07 −2.10 −0.35 −0.62 −4.07 −4.02 0.76 0.75
FOS+2-FOS+3 0.77 0.89 0.69 0.85 2.66 2.06 −0.57 −0.13 0.53 0.46
FOS+2-P 0.46 0.45 0.43 0.38 1.55 1.30 0.04 0.03 0.27 0.29
FOS+2-E −1.07 −1.15 −1.03 −1.12 −0.04 −0.16 −2.87 −2.49 0.50 0.53
FOS+3-Off 0.50 0.58 0.48 0.55 1.56 1.48 −0.44 −0.29 0.37 0.41
FOS+3-P 0.32 0.31 0.29 0.25 1.06 1.20 0.01 0.02 0.23 0.24
FOS+3-E −0.72 −0.78 −0.67 −0.67 −0.02 0.00 −1.88 −2.00 0.42 0.43
Fin-Fin * 1.10 1.31 0.99 1.20 3.58 3.59 0.08 0.00 0.66 0.74
Fin-P 0.66 0.65 0.60 0.52 2.07 1.78 0.03 0.00 0.43 0.48
Fin-E −1.51 −1.66 −1.31 −1.58 −0.27 0.00 −4.05 −4.24 0.78 0.97
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