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Brain metastases in non-small cell lung cancer: Prevalence, high-risk factors, and overall survival prognosis

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12 sept 2025

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Introduction

Brain metastases (BM) in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) at the time of diagnosis are quite common, occurring in about 10%–20% of cases[1,2]. Risk factors associated with the frequency of BM in NSCLC include non-squamous carcinoma, elevated serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels, lymph node metastases (especially metastasis to multiple mediastinal lymph nodes), and EGFR/ALK gene mutations[3]. Chinese authors have also observed that lesion diameter, calcium concentration, and CEA level are independent risk factors for brain metastasis[4]. Increased lymph node size is also linked to asymptomatic BM[5].

The primary treatments for NSCLC with BM used to be surgery, radiosurgery, and whole-brain radiotherapy. Chemotherapy had limited effectiveness due to the presence of the blood–brain barrier. However, now there are numerous treatment options, and the effectiveness has greatly improved with the emergence of targeted drugs[6].

Although immunotherapy is an emerging option for increasing treatment options in NSCLC, its benefits in BM are unclear and require further study[7,8]. The median overall survival time for patients with BM is approximately 12 months[9]. Factors such as performance status, gene mutation status, and histopathology play an important role in predicting the survival time of NSCLC with BM[9,10].

Overall assessment of BM in NSCLC will assist clinicians in gaining an overview, thereby contributing to diagnosis and treatment strategies. In Vietnam, no comprehensive studies have evaluated this situation thoroughly. Our study aimed to determine the incidence of brain metastasis, evaluate overall survival time, and assess factors influencing these outcomes in the NSCLC population in Vietnam.

Materials and Methods
Study locations and patients

This study was conducted at Nghe An Oncology Hospital in Vietnam. The study protocol received approval from the ethics committee of Nghe An Oncology Hospital.

This study included patients over 18 years old diagnosed with NSCLC by histopathology according to World Health Organization (WHO) 2015 standards[11]. Patients were staged according to AJCC 8th edition, 2017[12]. Diagnosis of BM relied on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) or computed tomography (CT) results. EGFR mutation testing was conducted using real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) or next-generation sequencing (NGS), while ALK testing was performed using NGS. The patient’s physical condition was assessed using the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) scale[13].

All patients were regularly monitored and assessed following clinical guidelines. This involved documenting the time of death or the date of the last update, as well as the conclusion of the study.

We excluded patients with unidentified histopathology, multiple cancers, or an inaccessible status of brain metastasis at diagnosis.

Study design and size samples

This is a retrospective observational study evaluating NSCLC patients from June 2019 to June 2023.

The sample size was calculated using the one-proportion estimation formula, ensuring absolute accuracy as recommended by the WHO[14]. We chose a significance level of 0.05, an absolute precision of 0.02, and estimated the brain metastasis rate to be 10.4% (based on a previous study)[1].

We randomly recruited 895 patients who met the criteria for inclusion in the analysis.

Study variables

The outcome variable of this study was BM (Yes hoặc No). Overall survival (OS) was defined as the time from treatment to death from any cause. Patients alive at the last follow-up or with missing information were censored.

Dependent variables included age group (<60 and ≥60), sex (male and female), histopathology (non-squamous or squamous), performance status (0–1 or 2–4), tumor stage (T1–T2, T3–T4), nodal stage (N0–2, N3), extracranial metastasis (yes or no), tumor size (<3 cm, ≥3 cm), short axis of mediastinal node (<1.5 cm or ≥1.5 cm), EGFR/ALK gene mutation (positive or negative/unknown), serum CEA (<5 ng/ml or ≥5 ng/ml), number of brain metastatic lesions (1–3 or >3), size of brain metastatic lesions (<3 cm or ≥3 cm), and whole-brain radiotherapy (yes or no).

Statistical analysis

Quantitative variables are presented as mean ± standard deviation (SD) for normally distributed data or median with interquartile range (IQR) for non-normally distributed data. Qualitative variables are presented as frequency and percentage (%).

The chi-squared test or Fisher’s exact test was used to compare differences between groups. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to assess the association of BM with factors. Results are reported as odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

Survival curves were estimated using the Kaplan–Meier method and compared with the log-rank test. The association with factors was evaluated using the Cox regression model. Results are reported as hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs.

All analyses were performed using International Business Machine Statistical Package for the Social Sciences 25.0. A p-value <0.05 was considered statistically significant.

Results

Table 1 presents the characteristics of the study participants. The median age of the study participants was 63 ± 13 years, The majority of patients were male, with non-squamous carcinoma, older than 60 years, and with PS ECOG 0–1. Approximately one-third of cases had positive EGFR/ALK gene mutations.

Characteristics of patients participating in the study.

Variable n (%)
Age (years)
Median (±IQR) 63 ± 13 (range: 24–88)
Age group (years)
<60 306 (34.2)
≥60 589 (65.8)
Sex
Male 666 (74.4)
Female 229 (25.6)
Histopathology
Squamous carcinoma 159 (17.8)
Non-squamous carcinoma 736 (82.2)
PS ECOG
0–1 734 (82.0)
2–4 161 (18.0)
Tumor stage
T1 129 (14.4)
T2 192 (21.5)
T3 207 (23.1)
T4 367 (41.0)
Node stage
N0 201 (22.5)
N1 30 (3.4)
N2 310 (34.6)
N3 354 (39.6)
Tumor size (cm)
<3 217 (24.2)
≥3 678 (75.8)
Short axis of mediastinal node (cm)
<1.5 638 (71.3)
≥1.5 257 (28.7)
EGFR/ALK mutation
Positive 250 (27.9)
Negative/unknown 645 (72.1)
CEA (ng/ml)
<5 251 (28.0)
≥5 644 (72.0)
Extracranial metastasis
Yes 506 (56.5)
No 389 (43.5)

Note: ECOG: Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group, EGFR: epidermal growth factor receptor, ALK: anaplastic lymphoma kinase, CEA: carcinoembryonic antigen, PS: performance status, IQR: interquartile range

Table 2 shows a brain metastasis prevalence of 13.1%. It is high in non-squamous carcinoma subgroups, lymph node stage N3, short axis of mediastinal node ≥1.5 cm, and CEA ≥5 ng/ml.

Prevalence of brain metastases in non-small cell lung cancer according to factors.

Variable n (%) p-Value
Total (117) 13.1 -
Age group (years)
<60 45 (14.7) 0.347
≥60 72 (12.2)
Sex
Male 88 (13.2) 0.910
Female 29 (12.7)
Histopathology
Squamous carcinoma 10 (6.3) 0.006
Non-squamous carcinoma 107 (14.5)
PS ECOG
0–1 91 (12.4) 0.245
2–4 26 (16.1)
Tumor stage
T1–T2 40 (12.5) 0.757
T3–T4 77 (13.4)
Node stage
N0–2 51 (9.4) <0.001
N3 66 (18.6)
Tumor size (cm)
<3 25 (11.5) 0.488
≥3 92 (13.6)
Short axis of mediastinal node (cm)
<1.5 73 (11.4) 0.028
≥1.5 44 (17.1)
EGFR/ALK mutation
Positive 41 (16.4) 0.077
Negative/unknown 76 (11.8)
CEA (ng/ml)
<5 18 (7.2) 0.001
≥5 99 (15.4)
Extracranial metastasis
Yes 76 (15.0) 0.057
No 41 (10.5)

Note: ECOG: Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group, EGFR: epidermal growth factor receptor, ALK: anaplastic lymphoma kinase, CEA: carcinoembryonic antigen, PS: performance status

Table 3 shows the association of BM in NSCLC with several factors: BM are associated with non-squamous carcinoma (OR = 2.04, 95% CI: 1.01–4.14), lymph node stage N3 (OR = 1.77, 95% CI: 1.15–2.72), and CEA status ≥5 ng/ml (OR = 1.81, 95% CI: 1.05–3.13).

Some factors associated with brain metastases in non-small cell lung cancer: Univariate and multivariate logistic regression.

Variable Brain metastases in non-small cell lung cancer
Crude OR (95% CI) p-Value Adjustment OR (95% CI) p-Value
Age group (years)
<60 1.24 (0.83–1.85) 1.21 (0.80–1.83)
≥60 1 0.297 1 0.370
Sex
Male 1.05 (0.67–1.65) 1,17 (0.73–1.90)
Female 1 0.832 1 0.513
Histopathology
Squamous carcinoma 1 1
Non-squamous carcinoma 2.53 (1.29–4.97) 0.007 2.04 (1.01–4.14) 0.049
PS ECOG
0–1 1 1
2–4 1.36 (0.85–2.18) 0.202 1.51 (0.92–2.50) 0.102
Tumor stage
T1–T2 1 1
T3–T4 1.09 (0.72–1.64) 0.685 0.98 (0.62–1.53) 0.925
Node stage
N0–2 1 1
N3 2.20 (1.49–3.26) < 0,001 1.77 (1.15–2.72) 0.009
Tumor size (cm)
<3 1 1
≥3 1.21 (0.75–1.93) 0.436 1.33 (0.79–2.22) 0.286
Short axis of mediastinal node (cm)
<1.5 1 1
≥1.5 1.60 (1.07–2.40) 0.023 1.32 (0.84–2.05) 0.224
EGFR/ALK mutation
Positive 1.47 (0.97–2.22) 1.34 (0.85–2.11)
Negative/unknown 1 0.067 1 0.206
CEA (ng/ml)
<5 1 1
≥5 2.35 (1.39–3.97) 0.001 1.81 (1.05–3.13) 0.034
Extracranial metastasis
Yes 1.50 (1.00–2.25) 1.11 (0.72–1.71)
No 1 0.050 1 0.626

Note: ECOG: Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group, OR: odds ratio, 95% CI: 95% confidence interval 95%, EGFR: epidermal growth factor receptor, ALK: anaplastic lymphoma kinase, CEA: carcinoembryonic antigen, PS: performance status

Figure 1 shows the overall survival time for NSCLC patients with and without BM. The median overall survival time of patients with BM was lower than that of patients without BM (15.3 vs. 18.3 months, p = 0.005). The 1-year and 2-year overall survival rates for patients with NSCLC and BM are 55.0% and 27.6%, respectively.

Figure 1:

Overall survival time for non-small cell lung cancer patients with and without brain metastases: Kaplan–Meier analysis.

Table 4 presents a multivariable Cox regression analysis of the association between overall survival time in patients with brain metastatic NSCLC and various factors. Overall survival time is associated with positive EGFR/ALK gene mutation status (HR = 0.38, 95% CI: 0.20–0.70) and the number of 1–3 BM lesions (HR = 0.56, 95% CI: 0.33–0.96).

Association of overall survival time in patients with brain metastases in non-small cell lung cancer with various factors: Multivariable Cox regression analysis.

Variable (N = 117) HR (95% CI) p-Value
Age group (years)
<60 0.86 (0.50–1.46) 0.569
≥60 1
Sex
Male 0.95 (0.50–1.80) 0.862
Female 1
Histopathology
Squamous carcinoma 1 0.296
Non-squamous carcinoma 0.63 (0.26–1.50)
PS ECOG
0–1 0.60 (0.32–1.11) 0.103
2–4 1
Tumor stage
T1–T2 1 0.281
T3–T4 0.71 (0.38–1.32)
Node stage
N0–2 1 0.262
N3 0.73 (0.41–1.27)
Tumor size (cm)
<3 0.71 (0.35–1.43) 0.332
≥3 1
Short axis of mediastinal node (cm)
<1.5 0.80 (0.48–1.35) 0.404
≥1.5 1
EGFR/ALK mutation
Positive 0.38 (0.20–0.70) 0.002
Negative/unknown 1
CEA (ng/ml)
<5 0.78 (0.34–1.80) 0.554
≥5 1
BM lesions
1–3 lesions 0.56 (0.33–0.96) 0,036
>3 lesions 1
Size of BM lesions
<3 cm 1 0.996
≥3 cm 0.99 (0.52–1.91)
WBRT
Yes 0.98 (0.55–1.81) 0.970
No 1
Extracranial metastasis
Yes 1 0.830
No 0.93 (0.51–1.72)

Note: ECOG: Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group, HR: hazard ratio, 95% CI: 95% confidence interval, EGFR: epidermal growth factor receptor, ALK: anaplastic lymphoma kinase, BM: brain metastases, PS: performance status.

Figure 2 shows that the median overall survival time is higher in the group with 1–3 BM (19.5 vs. 9.3 months, p = 0.004) (Figure 2A) and in the EGFR/ALK gene mutation positive group (20.3 vs. 8.7 months, p = 0.001) (Figure 2B).

Figure 2:

Overall survival time of patients with NSCLC with brain metastases in subgroups: Kaplan–Meier analysis, log-rank test.

Discussion

In Vietnam, this is the first study to evaluate BM in NSCLC. We observed a high prevalence of BM at the time of diagnosis, and it was closely linked to several factors. In addition, BM limit the overall survival time of patients with NSCLC. We also found some prognostic factors for overall survival in this group of patients. Our findings will assist clinicians in gaining a comprehensive perspective on patients with brain metastatic NSCLC during diagnosis and treatment.

The presence of BM was typically detected using CT scan or MRI of the brain at the time of diagnosis. We observed that the prevalence of BM at the time of diagnosis was 13.1%, consistent with findings from other studies[1,15], but lower than in India, where the prevalence was 21%[2]. Our study was conducted with a large sample size at the largest oncology center in central Vietnam. Therefore, this result can be considered representative of the NSCLC population in central Vietnam.

In this study, when analyzing univariate and multivariate logistic regression, we found that BM are closely associated with non-squamous carcinoma, lymph node stage N3, and serum CEA status ≥5 ng/ml. In an analysis from the US National Cancer database, factors such as younger age, glandular and large cell histology, histological grade >II, tumor size >3 cm, and lymph node positivity were associated with BM in NSCLC[1]. In addition, distant metastases to the liver/bone/lymph nodes, tumor stage, and higher node stage also showed a higher likelihood of BM[16]. Lesion diameter >5.505 cm, calcium concentration >2.295 mmol/l, and CEA >11.160 ng/ml are also prognostic factors for this condition[4]. In Mexico, age, serum CEA, and genetic mutation status are recognized as high-risk factors for BM[17]. Previous studies indicate a high incidence of BM in patients with positive EGFR/ALK gene mutations[18,19]. However, we did not find an association of BM with EGFR/ALK gene mutations in multivariate analysis. Perhaps due to limited economic resources, a certain proportion of patients do not have access to diagnostic testing for EGFR/ALK gene mutations, which thus affects these results when analyzed.

BM are a factor that affects the quality of life as well as the overall survival of patients with NSCLC. Our study found that the median overall survival time in the group of patients with BM was lower than in those without BM (15.3 vs. 18.3 months, p = 0.005). A previous study found that the median overall survival in patients with NSCLC with BM was approximately 12 months[9]. Real-life data of patients with BM in Japan showed a median overall survival of 14.3 months[10]. In the present circumstances, the overall survival time for this group of patients has significantly improved due to the use of new local and systemic treatments. A study in the USA revealed that the median overall survival for patients with BM from NSCLC was 17.0 months[20]. The results of our study are quite similar to those of other studies around the world. With the combination of multimodality treatment, in particular, the effectiveness of targeted treatment drugs on patients with NSCLC with BM has improved and significantly prolonged the overall survival time.

When analyzing multivariable Cox regression, we noted a benefit in overall survival time in patients with BM with EGFR/ALK gene mutations compared to patients with EGFR/ALK-negative/unknown (HR = 0.38, 95% CI: 0.20–0.70, p = 0.002), thereby proving the clear benefits of targeted drugs on patients with BM. This observation is completely consistent with previous reports[21,22]. In our study, we observed a survival benefit among patients with 1–3 BM (HR = 0.56, 95% CI: 0.33–0.96, p = 0.036). Previously reported prognostic factors include PDL1 status, EGFR/ALK gene mutation, performance status, age, number of BM, and extracranial metastases[23]. For patients with BM, brain radiotherapy is one of the recommended local treatment methods. In cases of limited metastases, radiosurgery (SRS) is recommended as an alternative to surgery or as an adjunct after brain tumor surgery[24,25]. In cases of multiple BM, whole-brain radiotherapy is indicated[26]. Currently, due to limited local resources, the main treatment at our center is steroid or whole-brain radiation therapy. In some cases, the ability of EGFR/ALK tyrosine kinase inhibitor drugs to penetrate the brain supports the decision to delay brain radiotherapy in selected patients without negatively impacting treatment outcomes[27]. Whole-brain radiotherapy is performed at our unit for BM that are symptomatic and do not benefit from targeted drugs. In our analysis, whole-brain radiotherapy did not improve survival benefits for patients with NSCLC with BM (HR = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.55–1.81, p = 0.970). This result is also consistent with previous reports[28].

The limitations of this study include its retrospective design and the fact that it was conducted at a single center. The collection of data, particularly regarding the smoking variable, was somewhat affected. Limited resources may have resulted in some patients lacking access to new treatment options, such as targeted therapies and immunotherapy, which could influence the results. Nevertheless, this study provides valuable information on the treatment of NSCLC in Vietnam. Future research should aim to evaluate the effectiveness of new medications, like targeted therapies and immunotherapy, specifically for patients with NSCLC who have BM.

Conclusions

Our study indicates a high prevalence of BM in NSCLC in Vietnam. The application of new treatment methods has improved treatment effectiveness.

This study offers an overview of BM in NSCLC, aiming to enhance diagnostic and treatment effectiveness in real-life settings in Vietnam.

Idioma:
Inglés
Calendario de la edición:
2 veces al año
Temas de la revista:
Medicina, Medicina Clínica, Medicina Interna, Hematología, oncología