1. bookVolumen 12 (2020): Edición 4 (December 2020)
Detalles de la revista
License
Formato
Revista
eISSN
1803-8417
Primera edición
24 Feb 2009
Calendario de la edición
4 veces al año
Idiomas
Inglés
access type Acceso abierto

Russian Food Import Ban – Impacts on Rural and Regional Development in Finland

Publicado en línea: 31 Dec 2020
Volumen & Edición: Volumen 12 (2020) - Edición 4 (December 2020)
Páginas: 506 - 526
Recibido: 05 May 2020
Aceptado: 05 Aug 2020
Detalles de la revista
License
Formato
Revista
eISSN
1803-8417
Primera edición
24 Feb 2009
Calendario de la edición
4 veces al año
Idiomas
Inglés
Abstract

This paper investigates the economic effects of the food import ban that Russia imposed vis-à-vis the European Union in 2014 on the development of two structurally different rural regions in Finland. A detailed, rural-urban dataset was compiled for use with a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model. In the medium run, the overall economic effects of the trade ban were negative for both regions, and the value added of agriculture and food industries fell notably. When the rigidities of capital availability were relaxed, regional GDP and employment increased in South Ostrobothnia as, for instance, metal industry and construction accelerated economic growth. In North Karelia, where agriculture and food industry account for a minor share of economy, other industries could not compensate the losses the ban caused. Accordingly, the impacts were dependent on the economic structure of the region.

Keywords

[1] Anderson, J. & Van Wincoop, E. (2003). Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle. American Economic Review 93(1), 170–192. DOI: 10.1257/000282803321455214.10.1257/000282803321455214Search in Google Scholar

[2] Barkley, A. (1990). The determinants of the migration of labor out of agriculture in the United States, 1940–85. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 72(3), 567–573. DOI: 10.2307/1243025.10.2307/1243025Search in Google Scholar

[3] Berg-Andersson, B. & Kotilainen, M. (2016). Pakotteiden vaikutus Suomen vientiin Venäjälle [Brief No. 45]. Helsinki: The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.Search in Google Scholar

[4] Berlinschi, R., Swinnen, J. & Van Herck, K. (2014). Trapped in agriculture? Credit constraints, investments in education and agricultural employment. European Journal of Development Research 26(4), 490–508. DOI: 10.1057/ejdr.2014.30.10.1057/ejdr.2014.30Search in Google Scholar

[5] Bilgic, A., King, S., Lusby, A. & Schreiner, D. F. (2002). Estimates of U.S. Regional Commodity Trade Elasticities of Substitution. The Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy 32(2), 79–98. DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.132238.Search in Google Scholar

[6] Boulanger, P., Dudu, H., Ferrari, E. & Philippidis, G. (2016). Russian roulette at the trade table: A specific factors CGE analysis of an agri-food import ban. Journal of Agricultural Economics 67(2), 272–291. DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.12156.10.1111/1477-9552.12156Search in Google Scholar

[7] Cruz, L., Ramos, P. N., Barata, E. & Sargento, A. L. (2017). Assessing an agri-food develoment strategy: a bi-regional input-output model with resource-constrained sectors. European Review of Agricultural Economics 44(5), 860–882. DOI: 10.1093/erae/jbw028.10.1093/erae/jbw028Search in Google Scholar

[8] Drabenstott, M. (2003). A new era for rural policy. Economic Review, Fourth Quarter. Kansas: Center for the Study of Rural America, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, USA.Search in Google Scholar

[9] Garrone, M., Emmers, D., Olper, A. & Swinnen, J. (2019). Jobs and agricultural policy: Impacts of the common agricultural policy on EU agricultural employment. Food Policy 87, No. 101744. DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2019.101744.10.1016/j.foodpol.2019.101744Search in Google Scholar

[10] Harrigan, F. & McGregor, P. G. (1989). Neoclassical and Keynesian Perspectives on the Regional Macro-Economy: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach. Journal of Regional Science 29(4), 555–573. DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9787.1989.tb01244.x.10.1111/j.1467-9787.1989.tb01244.xSearch in Google Scholar

[11] Horridge, M. (2011). The TERM model and its database [General Paper No. G-219]. Melbourne: Monash University.Search in Google Scholar

[12] Hyytiä, N. (2014). Farm diversification and regional investments: efficient instruments for the CAP rural development targets in rural regions in Finland? European Review of Agricultural Economics 41(2), 255–277. DOI: 10.1093/erae/jbt022.10.1093/erae/jbt022Search in Google Scholar

[13] Julia-Wise, R., Cooke, S. C. & Holland, D. (2002). A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of a Property Tax Limitation Initiative in Idaho. Land Economics 78(2), 207–227. DOI: 10.2307/3147269.10.2307/3147269Search in Google Scholar

[14] Khachaturyan, M. & Peterson, E. W. F. (2017). The Russian Food and Agricultural Import Ban. Cornhusker Economics No. 756. Lincoln: University of Nebraska.Search in Google Scholar

[15] Kilkenny, M. & Partridge, M. D. (2009). Export Sectors and Rural Development. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 91(4), 910–929. DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-8276.2009.01320.x.10.1111/j.1467-8276.2009.01320.xSearch in Google Scholar

[16] Kutlina-Dimitrova, Z. (2015). The economic impact of the Russian import ban: a CGE analysis. DG TRADE Chief Economist Note 3.Search in Google Scholar

[17] Liefert, W. M. & Liefert, O. (2015). Russia’s Economic Crisis and its Agricultural and Food Economy. Choices 30(1), 1–6.Search in Google Scholar

[18] Lofgren, H., Harris, R. L. & Robinson, S. (2002). Standard Computable General Equilibrium Model in GAMS. Washington DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.Search in Google Scholar

[19] Niemi, J. & Väre, M., eds., (2018). Agriculture and food sector in Finland 2018. Helsinki: Natural Resources Institute Finland.Search in Google Scholar

[20] Martinho, V. (2015). Agricultural economics in the context of Portuguese Rural Development. In Martinho, V., ed., The Agricultural Economics of the 21st Century (pp. 121–136). Cham: Springer International Publishing.Search in Google Scholar

[21] Mattas, K. & Loizou, E. (2017). The CAP as a job stabiliser. EuroChoices 16(3), 23–26. DOI: 10.1111/1746-692X.12170.10.1111/1746-692X.12170Search in Google Scholar

[22] Midmore, P., Partridge, M. D., Olfert, M. R. & Ali, K. (2010). The evaluation of Rural Development Policy: Macro and Micro Perspectives. Euro Choices 9(1), 24–29. DOI: 10.1111/J.1746-692X.2010.00155.X.10.1111/j.1746-692X.2010.00155.xSearch in Google Scholar

[23] Olper, A., Raimondi, V., Cavicchioli, D. & Vigani, M. (2014). Do CAP payments reduce farm labour migration? A panel data analysis across EU regions. European Review of Agricultural Economics 41(5), 843–873. DOI: 10.1093/erae/jbu002.10.1093/erae/jbu002Search in Google Scholar

[24] Partridge, M. D. & Rickman, D. S. (1998). Regional Computable General modelling: A Survey and Critical Appraisal. Regional Science Review 21(3), 205–248. DOI: 10.1177/016001769802100301.10.1177/016001769802100301Search in Google Scholar

[25] Petrick, M. & Zier, P. (2012). Common agricultural policy effects on dynamic labour use in agriculture. Food Policy 37(6), 671–678. DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2012.07.004.10.1016/j.foodpol.2012.07.004Search in Google Scholar

[26] Richardson, H. W. (1976). Regional Economics, Location Theory, Urban Structure and Regional Change. London: Weidenfeld and Nicolson.Search in Google Scholar

[27] Rizov, M., Davidova, S. & Bailey, A. (2018). Employment effect of CAP payments in the UK non-farm economy. European Review of Agricultural Economics 45(5), 723–748. DOI: 10.1093/erae/jby008.10.1093/erae/jby008Search in Google Scholar

[28] Robinson, S., Cattaneo, A. & El-Said, M. (2000). Updating and estimating a Social Accounting Matrix using cross entropy method [TMD discussion papers 59]. Washington DC: International Food Policy Institute.Search in Google Scholar

[29] Rodríguez-Pose, A. & Gill, N. (2006). How does trade affect regional disparities? World Development 34(7), 1201–1222. DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2005.12.003.10.1016/j.worlddev.2005.12.003Search in Google Scholar

[30] Round, J. (2003). Social Accounting Matrices and SAM-Based Multiplier Analysis. In: Tool Kit; Poverty and Social Impact Analysis (pp. 1–14). Washington, DC: World Bank.Search in Google Scholar

[31] Smutka, L., Spicka, J., Ishchukova, N. & Selby, R. (2016). Agrarian import ban and its impacts on the Russian and European Union agrarian trade performance. Agricultural Economics –Czech 62(11), 493–506. DOI: 10.17221/294/2015-AGRICECON.10.17221/294/2015-AGRICECONSearch in Google Scholar

[32] Thomson, K., Berkhout, P. & Constantinou, A. (2011). Balancing between structural and rural policy. In Oskam, A., Meester, G. & Silvis, H., eds., EU policy for agriculture, food and rural areas (pp. 385–400). Wageningen Academic Publishers.Search in Google Scholar

[33] Thurlow, J. (2004). A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model for South Africa: Extending the Static IFPRI Model [Working Paper 1]. Pretoria: Trade and Industrial Policy Strategies.Search in Google Scholar

[34] Törmä, H. & Lehtonen, H. (2009). Macroeconomic and welfare effects of the CAP reform and further decoupling of agricultural support in Finland: A CGE modelling approach. – Acta Agriculturae Scandinavica, Section C – Food Economics 6(2), 73–87. DOI: 10.1080/16507540903474673.10.1080/16507540903474673Search in Google Scholar

[35] Törmä, H. & Rutherford, T. (1992). A General Equilibrium Assessment of Finland’s Grand Tax Reform [Reports No 15, Department of Economics and Management]. Jyväskylä: University of Jyväskylä.Search in Google Scholar

[36] Vaittinen, R. (2004). Trade Policies and Integration: Evaluations with CGE-Models. Helsinki School of Economics.Search in Google Scholar

[37] Wysokinski, M. & Baran, J. (2014). The Russian Embargo: Tribulations of Dairy and Meat Exports from Poland and Other EU Member Countries. Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, 10(1), 135–147.Search in Google Scholar

[38] Wing, I. S. (2004). Computable General Equilibrium models and their use in economy-wide policy analysis: Everything you ever wanted to know (but were afraid to ask) [technical note 6]. Cambridge, MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology.Search in Google Scholar

[39] Bank of Finland 2017. Upswing strengthens, supported by exports – in 2019 GDP will finally exceed the level of 2008. Press release No 15. Available at: https://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/media-and-publications/releases/2017/upswing-strengthens-supported-by-exports-in-2019-GDP-will-finally-exceed-the-level-of-2008/.Search in Google Scholar

[40] European Union 2018. How the EU budget is spend. Referred to 21.9.2018. Available at: https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/money/expenditure_en.10.1093/actrade/9780198808855.003.0002Search in Google Scholar

[41] European Commission 2013. Overview of CAP Reform 20142020. Agricultural Policy Perspectives Brief, No 5. DG Agriculture and Rural Development, Unit for Agricultural Policy Analysis and Perspectives. Brussels: European Commission.Search in Google Scholar

[42] European Commission 2017. The Future of Food and Farming, Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions, COM(2017)713. Brussels: European Commission.Search in Google Scholar

[43] European Commission 2019. Agricultural policy post-2020. Simplification and modernisation. European Commission.Search in Google Scholar

[44] European Parliament 2014. The Russian Embargo: Impact on the Economic and Employment Situation in the EU. Employment and Social Affairs, Briefing. Policy Department A: Economic and Scientific Policy. Brussels: European Parliament.Search in Google Scholar

[45] European Parliament 2016. Research for AGRI Committee – The role of the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy in creating rural jobs. DG for Internal Policies. Policy Department B structural and Cohesion Policies. Brussels: European Parliament.Search in Google Scholar

[46] ETLA (Elinkeinoelämän tutkimuslaitos) 2016. Suhdanne Vuosikirja 2016:2. [The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy. ETLA Forecast Year 2016:2] Helsinki: ETLA.Search in Google Scholar

[47] Finnish Customs 2016. Tavaroiden ulkomaankauppa maakunnittain vuonna 2015, Kauppa 2016. [International trade in goods by Finnish regions in 2015, Trade 2016.] Finnish Customs.Search in Google Scholar

[48] Finnish Customs 2018. Suomen ja Venäjän välinen kauppa. [Finnish-Russian trade]. Finnish Customs.Search in Google Scholar

[49] Finnish Customs. Kauppa Suomi-EU-28, 2008–2016. [Trade between Finland and the EU 2008-2016].Search in Google Scholar

[50] Finnish Customs. Kauppa Suomi-kaikki maat 2009–2016. [Trade between Finland and all foreign countries].Search in Google Scholar

[51] Finnish Customs. Tullissa kannetut valtion tulot. [Government taxes and levies].Search in Google Scholar

[52] LUKE Natural Resources Institute Finland. Maatalouden rakennekehitysennuste, Taloustohtori 20.6.2017. [Forecast of the structural development of agriculture, Statistics database].Search in Google Scholar

[53] LUKE Natural Resources Institute Finland. Maatilojen lukumäärä alueittain 1995–2012. [Number of farms by regions in 1995–2012].Search in Google Scholar

[54] OECD. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The observatory of economic complexity. Data visualization tool for international trade data. Finland: Product trade. Available at: https://oec.world/en/profile/country/fin/.Search in Google Scholar

[55] Regional Council of North Karelia. Työpaikat kunnittain, Pohjois-Karjala 1991–2013. [Work places by municipalities in North Karelia in 19912013].Search in Google Scholar

[56] Regional Council of North Karelia. Työllinen työvoima 31.12.2014. [Employed].Search in Google Scholar

[57] Regional Council of North Karelia and Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment. Työttömien osuus työvoimasta keskimäärin (%) [Approximate share of unemployed of labour force].Search in Google Scholar

[58] Regional Council of South Ostrobothnia. Etelä-Pohjanmaan hyvinvoinnin tilastopaketti 2016. [Statistics of wellbeing in South Ostrobothnia in 2016].Search in Google Scholar

[59] Statistics Finland. Official Statistics. Available at: http://tilastokeskus.fi/til//index_en.html.Search in Google Scholar

[60] Statistics Finland. StatFin database. Available at: http://pxnet2.stat.fi/PXWeb/pxweb/en/StatFin/.Search in Google Scholar

[61] U.S. Department of Agriculture. Income Elasticities Finland 1996. Economic Research Service.Search in Google Scholar

[62] VATT, Institute for Economic Research (Finnish Government) 2015. Regional input-Output tables of 2008, unpublished data.Search in Google Scholar

[63] WTO (World Trade Organization). Russian Federation: Tariffs and imports: Summary and duty ranges / Tariffs and imports by product groups / Exports to major trading partners and duties faced.Search in Google Scholar

[64] WTO (World Trade Organization). European Union: Tariffs and imports: Summary and duty ranges / Tariffs and imports by product groups / Exports to major trading partners and duties faced.Search in Google Scholar

[65] Standard Industrial Classification TOL 2008. Classification of commodities: CPA 2008.Search in Google Scholar

Artículos recomendados de Trend MD

Planifique su conferencia remota con Sciendo