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Fashion companies in Poland. The influence of COVID-19 on liquidity assessment

   | 31 dic 2022

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Determinants of liquidity

Macroeconomic factors Industry factors Microeconomic factors
Government monetary policy:Affects interest rates in particular, i.e., the cost of capital, which determines the availability of debt financing. An expansionary monetary policy of lowering interest rates to stimulate the economy has a positive effect on the level of liquidity by reducing the cost of capital, in contrast to a restrictive monetary policy, which consists primarily of raising interest rates (Begg, Fischer & Dornbusch, 2003).State fiscal policy:A stabilised and transparent tax system in the state, both with regard to income taxes and those levied on sales revenue, has a beneficial effect on the liquidity of companies. A stable legal situation makes it possible to plan in advance and with great accuracy the entity's expenses related to the payment of compulsory benefits, using readily available historical data (Begg et al., 2003).Economic climate:Influences the demand and supply of offered products or services, and consequently – their price. The price of a commodity is very important from the point of view of a liquidity strategy. The entity calculates the required and achievable level of margin based on market data and is thus able to determine in advance the amount of estimated profit and capital surplus that it can realistically generate. As a general rule, most companies achieve better liquidity results during good economic times, when there is confidence in the market that results in effective cooperation with counterparties.The characteristics and degree of development of the domestic market:This is related to both the cost of labour and the amount of compulsory employee benefits, as well as the cost and the number of different opportunities to obtain both long-term and short-term financing. Lower costs and a wider range of financing options have a positive impact on the development of cash surplus. The degree of development of the industry and level of risk:In emerging industries, especially those important for the development of the country, it is relatively easier to obtain financing or tax exemptions to reduce operating costs altogether, but the dynamic development of new sectors may involve a higher risk of operating and achieving the anticipated sales result due to rapidly emerging competition. However, it is the growing industries that are in a more favourable liquidity position than the developed industries, as they are characterised by increasing demand for the products and services offered.Growth prospects and industry specifics:Planned volumes and periods of increased and decreased cash flows are very important when managing cash surpluses and shortfalls in a company. This is a particularly important aspect in industries that are characterised by high seasonality of sales. The company's market position and pricing strategy:A strong competitive position allows for more flexible adjustment of the payment terms of receivables. The size of the entity may allow it to benefit from economies of scale, which reduce production costs and increase the company's margins, having a positive impact on liquidity. The company's pricing strategy responds to market opportunities and the situation currently prevailing in the economy.Inventory policy:Determines the amount of capital permanently frozen in the enterprise. The more stocks the company holds, the less free cash is available for unforeseen expenses. The amount of inventory held is specific to the company and the management model adopted.Implementation of investment projects:Involves a temporary reduction in liquidity for the sake of obtaining future economic benefits. Prudent planning from the point of view of liquidity is particularly important in situations of long-term investment, where the capital expenditure (CAPEX) is high for the entire duration of the project. Then the entity should be particularly mindful of how it will cover future necessary expenses and whether this will jeopardise the company's smooth cash flow in the long term.Change in debt:Can be related to borrowing or repayment of credit. Many times, the use of overdraft lines of credit is an important part of liquidity management. Financing investments with debt capital is also generally associated with a lower cost than financing with equity alone.The entity's exposure to international markets:In entities operating in foreign markets, the entity's liquidity is also affected by exchange rate risk. In the absence of a responsible foreign exchange risk management policy, the amounts received from product sales may suddenly prove insufficient to cover liabilities. This makes liquidity planning more complex, but also essential for the stable operation of the entity.

Impact of the business model defining factors on the liquidity of the company

The defining factor of the business model Factor's explanation Impact on liquidity
Value Determines the value of the product generated for the customer. The higher the value of the product to the customer, the greater the chance of higher sales, i.e., increased cash inflow.
Revenues Defines the way the business will make money. At this point, the possibility of granting trade credit and collecting receivables, as well as acceptable forms of payment – i.e., the company's underlying cash inflow schedule – should be determined, as these directly translate into a liquidity strategy.
Entry barrier Identifies the initial expenditure required to start the business. The amount of the initial contribution determines the amount of funds required to be invested, i.e., the amount of capital frozen at the outset, which can still be increased in the subsequent operation of the company, so a high barrier to entry will in principle limit the liquidity of the business entity.
Competition Makes it possible to assess the threat from competing companies. The higher the competition, the more likely it is that sales will be spread over more operators, i.e., access to outlets and thus to regular, larger supplies of cash will be restricted.
Competitive advantage Identifies in which areas/characteristics the company in question is better than its competitors, and what kind of value-added it brings to the market compared to its competitors. When an entity significantly differentiates itself from its competitors with the solutions it offers, it finds it easier to win new customers and therefore has a greater likelihood of increasing sales revenue, and this should have a positive impact on liquidity.
Market strategy This defines how to promote the company and how to choose the right marketing activities. The amount of money spent on marketing and how and at what rate new customers are acquired is important in terms of both increasing sales revenue and generating promotional costs.
Structure/development of the organisation Identifies the size, staffing structure, and fixed costs of maintaining the business. The more extensive the organisational structure, the greater the maintenance costs it generates, as well as requiring a much more restrictive and automated cash flow planning process.
Management Defines the adopted management model and the required competencies of the chief executive. The management approach adopted by managers directly defines the approach to controlling liquidity. Keeping the best professionals in the market within the company will also generate fixed costs of a certain amount, which will need to be factored into the budget.

Comparison of the characteristics of a company with sufficient and insufficient liquidity levels

Characteristics Sufficient level of liquidity Insufficient liquidity level
Credibility Full credibility, no reputational risk. High risk of losing credibility or losing it altogether with further negative consequences.
The cost of financing Market cost, or even reduced cost due to advantageous negotiated contractual terms with long-term financing partners or preferential credit terms. Increased due to higher credit risk and the withdrawal of lenders from existing contracts or lack of further support.
Relationship with suppliers High flexibility in financing, continuous use of discounts, submitted invoice payment terms (trade credit). Lack of flexibility, applying for deferment of repayment dates by the entrepreneur in the face of demands for immediate repayment, lack of additional price reductions and discounts.
Deadline and amount of expenditure incurred Cash reserves coincide in size and timing with liability payment dates. No favourable relationship between the amount and timing of liabilities and the level of cash reserves.

Results of the dynamic panel models on liquidity in the fashion sector

model 1 cash_TA Coeff. (Std. Err.) model 2 cash_ratio Coeff. (Std. Err.)
Lagged dependent variable 0.0905 *** 0.0969 ***
(0.0229) (0.0022)
covid 0.0128 *** −0.7195 ***
(0.0047) (0.0673)
fashion −0.2843 ** −18.4016 ***
(0.1250) (1.5096)
did 0.0070 1.0736 ***
(0.0060) (0.1640)
size −0.0134 ** 1.3738 ***
(0.0069) (0.0788)
profit −0.0050 1.3628 ***
(0.0081) (0.0632)
mktbk 0.0069 *** 0.5421 ***
(0.0015) (0.0101)
growth 0.0231 *** 2.6130 ***
(0.0045) (0.0648)
capex −0.1537 *** −6.8916 ***
(0.0415) (0.6435)
totaldebt_TA −0.1788 *** −7.7793 ***
(0.0207) (0.2128)
inf_growth −1.2522 ***
(0.3721)
growthrate −0.3886
(0.6217)
maxcredit 0.6720 ***
(0.0626)
situation_capital 1.2641 ***
(0.1040)
risk_sector −1.0935 ***
(0.1940)
industry 0.0829 *** −1.4661 ***
(0.0158) (0.1877)
quartal 0.0002 −0.0522 ***
(0.0010) (0.0122)
number of observations 885 684
number of companies 108 93
Wald test 646.80 154607.69
p-value 0.0000 0.0000
Sargan test 51.6697 60.2655
p-value 0.2964 0.0636
Arellano-Bond test
AR(1) −2.7961 −1.6693
p-value 0.0052 0.0951
AR(2) 0.7980 −1.1499
p-value 0.4248 0.2502

Variables definitions

Variable Definition
cash_TA The dependent variable expressed as the ratio of available cash and cash equivalents to total assets in the company (similar to cash holding or cash reserves).
cash_ratio The dependent variable expressed as the ratio of cash and cash equivalents to trade payables, after winsorisation of extreme observations at the 95th percentile, due to excessive kurtosis
covid The binary variable takes the value zero from the first quarter of 2019 to the first quarter of 2020 (before the COVID-19 pandemic) and the value of one from the second quarter of 2020 to the end of the observation period (when the effects of the pandemic were already visible in companies’ financial statements).
fashion The binary variable indicates whether the company belongs to the fashion industry (according to the rules adopted by the Warsaw Stock Exchange).
did Interaction of covid and fashion variables.
size The size of a company's assets is presented as the natural logarithm of its total assets.
profit The variable shows the ratio of operating profit before depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) to total company assets.
mktbk The variable determines the ratio of the market value to the book value of the company, so it tells whether the company is developing (growing) and at the same time informs about the confidence level of investors in the given company.
growth The change in total assets, measured as the difference between ln(1+totalassets) from period t and ln(1+totalassets) a of period t-1, where t means quarter.
capex The variable indicates the ratio of the company's capital expenditure to the company's total assets.
totaldebt_TA The variable indicates ratio of total debt to total assets.
inf_growth The variable measuring the inflation expectation, based on analyses of the National Bank of Poland. It measures the percentage of enterprises that are convinced that prices will rise faster than current inflation over the next 12 months.
growthrate GDP quarter-on-quarter growth rate
maxcredit The maximum amount of a loan/line of credit, an indicator calculated on the basis of commercial banks’ responses to the question to what extent the terms and conditions for granting loans or lines of credit to businesses have been changed in the past three months. A positive indicator indicates a tightening of this criterion.It is the difference between the sum of the asset-weighted percentage structures of the responses “much eased with a weight of 100%” and “slightly eased with a weight of 50%” and the sum of the asset-weighted percentage structures of the responses “much tightened with a weight of 100%” and “slightly tightened with a weight of 50%”, multiplied by (−1).
situation_capital The reason for credit policy change: current or expected capital position of the bank, percentage of commercial banks’ responses to the question whether they have changed their credit policy, that is, the criteria or conditions for granting loans/credit lines to businesses, in the last three months and how the mentioned factor has contributed to the change. A positive indicator shows that a factor has contributed more to an easing than to a tightening of credit policy.The difference between the answers counted as above.
risk_sector The impact of the industry risk contribution to the change in credit policy within the last three months. A negative indicator means that a factor contributed more to the tightening than to the easing of credit policy.The difference between the answers counted as above.
industry Identifies the dominant industry in which the company operates, in accordance with the Polish classification of PKD codes.
quartal Identifies the quarter under review during the analysis period.

Descriptive statistics

Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max
covid 8,679 0.5455 0.4980 0 1
fashion 8,679 0.0266 0.1610 0 1
did 8,679 0.0145 0.1196 0 1
size 8,679 13.8866 7.9387 0 40.9197
profit 6,688 0.0164 0.1345 −0.66 0.55
mktbk 6,688 1.8313 2.9573 −0.9079 12
growth 7,89 −1.3996 5.9861 −40.9197 23.3957
capex 6,688 0.0147 0.0281 0 0.173
totaldebt_TA 6,688 0.5355 0.3369 0 44682,00
inf_growth 8,679 0.4832 0.0489 0.417 0.572
growthrate 8,679 0.0069 0.0372 −0.092 0.076
maxcredit 8,679 −0.1187 0.1875 −0.5651 0.1596
situation_capital 8,679 −0.0577 0.0963 −0.257 0.1244
risk_sector 8,679 −0.2214 0.1851 −0.7089 −0.046
industry 8,679 7.8973 4.2902 1 18
quartal 8,679 6 3.1625 1 11
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