Mathematical analysis of China's birth rate and research on the urgency of deepening the reform of art education

Under the condition of a certain level of family income, it is impossible for parents to raise more children with more money. In the United States, education accounts for about 10% of household expenditure. The mainstream view in academic circles is basically recognised that, at a certain stage of development or within a certain range of per capita income-level changes, the improvement of the economic development level increases the relative cost of raising children, women's education level and social status, which leads to the decline in fertility rate. This is because families with better educated parents pay more attention to the education and training of their children, and the rising cost of all aspects urges couples to consciously reduce the number of children.

Western economics divides the cost of raising children into two types. One is direct cost, that is, all the expenses that families spend on their children from pregnancy to birth and then for their economic independence, such as food and clothing expenses, education expenses, medical expenses etc. The other is indirect cost, which refers to all kinds of losses suffered by parents in the process of raising a child, such as the reduction of income, opportunities for job promotion etc. To be specific, China is limited by various objective conditions, and resources are scarce, which leads to the huge cost of childbearing for Chinese families and the greater economic pressure that Chinese families generally bear. Moreover, the payment period of childbearing cost is very long, which means that Chinese families will lose current benefits to a huge extent. At the same time, childbearing behaviour is different from general economic behaviour in that it has the irreversibility of investment, which will inevitably affect the childbearing willingness and behaviour of women of childbearing age [6, 7, 8].

On the one hand, families pay more attention to the education and cultivation of their children, and the rising costs of all aspects urge couples to consciously reduce the number of children; on the other hand, with the economic and social development, the characteristic function of traditional families based on production further degenerates and disappears, gradually giving way to the social mass production link, and the degree of marketisation of family consumption structure improves, which promotes the family upbringing. The number preference associated with child-bearing collapses, giving rise to the quality preference.

Personal values include the subjective manifestation of fertility behaviour, and personal fertility values play a guiding role in population fertility. The old ideas in Chinese traditional culture, such as ‘son preference’, ‘many sons and many blessings’ and ‘three unfilial children, no offspring for the future’, have become the important reasons for the high birth rate in China from 1949 to 1970. Then, the birth rate decreased year by year. We need to know that, as a whole for the Chinese people, our previous fertility level was very high. We are the world's most populous country, and the core reason is that we are in the whole Chinese market. Everyone's attitude towards having children is totally different. As early as before the reform and opening up, we have been in a state of incomplete industrialisation. At this time, everyone's attitude towards children was different. One child is more labour force, and more labour force can bring more income to the family. Therefore, in such a situation, everyone is willing to have a baby. This is actually because having a baby will not cost too much, ‘just a pair of chopsticks’, but it can actually bring about the overall improvement of family income. We can see that, whether in the period of agricultural civilisation or in the early stage of industrial civilisation, the fertility rate and fertility level of Chinese people were high, which was actually consistent with the productivity at that time and most people's cognition of children at home. What we need to understand is that the reform and opening up drive the rapid development of China's economy and also drive the transformation of China into a country with industrial civilisation as the core. Especially recently, we have entered a civilised era of Internet digitisation. Under such circumstances, we are more and more aware of the importance of education for the whole market and so we wish to ensure that children obtain a good education. Thus, in 21st-century China, it is not only necessary to let the children have enough to eat but also to provide them an excellent education. This is the change of people's understanding in the whole society. In fact, we have seen that, over the years, the education level of the Chinese people has been improving, and women's sense of autonomy has also been increasing. In the process of enhancing women's sense of autonomy, many girls increasingly feel that their lives should not be bound by children, so having a child or not has become a choice for many women, which is actually related to education. Peace is closely related to self-awareness [9, 10].

The reason for the decline in birth rate is because women of childbearing age have had a high level of education, tend to postpone their first marriage and tend to have children at a later age, and it is easier to overcome the influence of feudal ideas such as ‘inheriting one's family’ and master scientific methods of birth control; they tend to have higher family status and social status, have more autonomy in childbearing decisions and tend to have fewer children in their life. They also hope to have fewer children so that they can make them study more in their spare time and improve and guide them to achieve good results. People with different education levels have different fertility concepts. According to the data of the sixth census, the average number of children born decreases with the increase in education level. The average number of children born to women of childbearing age in Shanghai is 0.8, among which the average number of children born to women of childbearing age with a postgraduate degree is 0.36, followed by 0.37 with a bachelor degree and 1.8 without schooling. In brief, fertility is a common problem of economy, society and culture in a sense.

On the other hand, because there are still some problems in implementation of the Chinese Compulsory Education system (primary and junior high school education), some primary and secondary school principals, in order to make money, regardless of the national compulsory education policy, fail to take a serious view of compulsory education, or even completely violate the laws and regulations of compulsory education, and completely move junior high school out of the school headquarters (the school headquarters does not run junior high school) to a place far away from the school, the original school surrounded by students who should go to junior high school but can’t go to school because it is not nearby. Parents and students have many complaints. This seriously affects the compulsory education of students.

People think that education and medical treatment are the biggest problems nowadays. Among them, it is more difficult for children to seek medical treatment than adults. Statistics show that there is a shortage of 200,000 paediatricians in China. There is a huge demand for paediatricians to cater to children, in China's medical market. The number of paediatricians in China has not increased in the past 3 years but has decreased. There are only five paediatricians per 10,000 children. For example, Shapingba District of Chongqing has a permanent resident population of 1.128 million, and there are about 150,000 children. There is only one maternal and child health care hospital that employs paediatrics, and there are less than 20 doctors. From 2012 to 2018, the asset–liability ratio of children's hospitals in China is increasing year by year (Figure 3) [5], which reflects that there may be some problems in the current children's hospitals.

Fig. 3

First, the nature of compulsory education is to implement the free system of Bai, that is, not only free tuition but also free books, and even to provide certain living subsidies. The second is to receive compulsory education, which is not only the obligation of citizens but also the right they should enjoy. The absence of school-aged children from schools should be regarded as a violation of their rights. Third, the main body of the implementation of compulsory education is the government. For the countries that implement compulsory education system in the world, these points are not only mutually agreed upon but also practiced. China should be no exception, in our opinion. To solve the problem of education equity, which involves a wide range of public policy issues, we should get rid of the disadvantages of ‘treating the head with headache and treating the foot with pain’. There is a need to review and revise the education policy that has been implemented for a long time. Therefore, the education laws and regulations, including the compulsory education law, should answer the above questions fundamentally. In our opinion, the compulsory education law should answer, or mention, the fundamental and directional issues of legal norms, at least in the following aspects. First, the connotation of compulsory education should be clarified. First, the nature of compulsory education is to implement a completely free system, that is, not only free tuition and miscellaneous fees but also free book fees, and even to provide certain living subsidies. The second is to receive compulsory education, which is not only the obligation of citizens but also the right they should enjoy. The absence of school-age children from school should be regarded as a violation of their rights. Third, the main body of the implementation of compulsory education is the government. For the countries that implement compulsory education system in the world, these points are not only consensus, but also practice. I think we should be no exception. Second, we should make clear the standards of government investment in compulsory education. Some representatives pointed out that ‘without increasing investment, even if the compulsory education law is amended, it will not play a big role.’ Increasing funding for compulsory education has always been the focus of appeals made by the representatives of the national ‘two sessions’ over the years. Although the education law stipulates the financial education funds, the responsibilities of governments at all levels are not clear and difficult to operate. Statistics show that only 8% of the investment in rural education is spent by the central government, and the other 92% is spent by local governments at all levels, most of which is spent by the governments below the county level. This ratio is obviously unreasonable and unrealistic [11]. This is a clear provision at the legal level or a formal solution to the problem of tuition fees, which does not mean that compulsory education has been implemented in place or that there is no problem. But in fact, there are many practical problems that must be reformed or corrected, especially by the leaders of local educational institutions at all levels and primary and secondary schools, in which the provisions of law mandating Compulsory Education have not been seriously implemented. For example, in order to generate income and change money, many junior high schools now move out of the school headquarters and go to a place far away from the school headquarters. The school headquarters only runs high schools, which is not conducive for junior high school students to go to school. Therefore, parents have to buy rental houses for junior high school students in places far away from home. This problem is very serious in the author's school area; parents and junior high school students can be said to be full of complaints, do not dare to speak out and are afraid to offend the school leaders and education department leaders. We think that these phenomena must be reformed and corrected. Otherwise, people cannot understand compulsory education. Not to mention having two or three children, it's a headache for one child to go to school. Therefore, many parents say they don’t want to have another child. In order to make the birth rate develop smoothly, we must reform and rectify the problems in junior high school education. There are many aspects of education reform in primary and secondary schools. This is just the tip of the iceberg, mentioned here as an example. For example, the problem of primary education reform is also imminent. The current primary education can be summarised as follows: school teachers are chief engineers, parents are project engineers and students are technicians and workers. Teachers assign homework, parents supervise and direct and students operate by hand, which is a national model. In addition, there are some classes like this and that, so the burden of students and parents is heavy, so some mothers have to resign and become full-time nannies at home. The reform of primary and secondary schools is the focus of education reform. Only after the reform of primary and secondary education can the birth rate develop smoothly and normally.

In order to improve women's fertility desire, it is urgent to effectively promote the development of maternal and child health care, so as to solve the problems faced by the residents due to childbirth, such as the difficulty of prenatal examination, availability of delivery beds, infant health care and medical treatment, postpartum treatment and so on. At present, the resources of maternal and child health care are limited, and it is difficult to meet the medical needs of pregnant women and infants. It is urgently necessary to increase the number of obstetricians and paediatricians and expand and add some maternal and child healthcare hospitals and children's hospitals, so as to solve the contradiction between supply and demand of maternal and child health care and medical treatment. This is an important link related to the stable and normal development of fertility will and birth rate.

It is proposed to increase childcare services according to people's childcare needs. These new childcare institutions should meet several requirements. First, the number of full-time childcare institutions should exceed 40%, and the number of half-day childcare institutions should be close to 30%. Second, in terms of the content of nurseries, nearly 90% of the institutions should give both education and care. Third, in terms of institutional nature, the number of public institutions should exceed 50%. Fourth, in terms of childcare services, nearly 60% of them are in early education institutions or schools and about 30% are in communities. To solve the problems of people burdened with worries, we insist on the need for measures that promote the normal development of the birth rate.