Application of Logical Regression Function Model in Credit Business of Commercial Banks
y | 27 dic 2021
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Publicado en línea: 27 dic 2021
Páginas: 513 - 522
Recibido: 16 jun 2021
Aceptado: 24 sept 2021
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/amns.2021.1.00088
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© 2021 Ying Wei published by Sciendo.
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Block 1: Method=Enter
| B | S.E. | Wald | df | Sig | Exp(B) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Step 1a | 634.012 | 444.323 | 2.036 | 1 | .154 | 2E+275 | |
| -976.358 | 654.229 | 2.227 | 1 | .136 | .000 | ||
| 9.901 | 10.752 | .848 | 1 | .357 | 19959.659 | ||
| -6.869 | 20.664 | .110 | 1 | .740 | .001 | ||
| -.700 | .468 | 2.237 | 1 | .135 | .496 | ||
| 15.918 | 17.997 | .782 | 1 | .376 | 8188569 | ||
| .012 | .023 | .258 | 1 | .612 | 1.012 | ||
| -.365 | 3.199 | .013 | 1 | .909 | .694 | ||
| -4.079 | 12.464 | .107 | 1 | .743 | .017 | ||
| -.051 | .195 | .069 | 1 | .792 | .950 | ||
| 421.878 | 335.115 | 1.585 | 1 | .208 | 2E+183 | ||
| 5.475 | 9.537 | .330 | 1 | .566 | 238.710 | ||
| 21.546 | 13.779 | 2.445 | 1 | .118 | 2E+009 | ||
| 2.252 | 4.017 | .314 | 1 | .575 | 9.509 | ||
| -.022 | .156 | .020 | 1 | .887 | .978 | ||
| 17.818 | 9.660 | 3.402 | 1 | .065 | 5E+007 | ||
| -2.940 | 3.013 | .952 | 1 | .329 | .053 | ||
| -.069 | .064 | 1.173 | 1 | .279 | .933 | ||
| 4.692 | 2.145 | 4.783 | 1 | .029 | 109.041 | ||
| 1.156 | .945 | 1.495 | 1 | .221 | 3.176 | ||
| Constant | -14.618 | 18.057 | .655 | 1 | .418 | .000 |
Omnibus tests of Model Coefficients
| Chi-square | df | sig | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Step 1 | Step | 56.930 | 1 | .000 |
| Block | 56.930 | 1 | .000 | |
| Model | 56.930 | 1 | .000 | |
| Step 2 | Step | 51.714 | 1 | .000 |
| Block | 108.644 | 2 | .000 | |
| Model | 108.644 | 2 | .000 | |
| Step 3 | Step | 3.609 | 1 | .057 |
| Block | 112.253 | 3 | .000 | |
| Model | 112.253 | 3 | .000 | |
| Step 4 | Step | 10.319 | 1 | .001 |
| Block | 122.572 | 4 | .000 | |
| Model | 122.572 | 4 | .000 | |
| Step 5 | Step | 10.256 | 1 | .001 |
| Block | 132.828 | 5 | .000 | |
| Model | 132.828 | 5 | .000 | |
| Step 6 | Step | 8.562 | 1 | .003 |
| Block | 141.390 | 6 | .000 | |
| Model | 141.390 | 6 | .000 | |
| Step 7 | Step | -1.271 | 1 | .250 |
| Block | 140.119 | 5 | .000 | |
| Model | 140.119 | 5 | .000 | |
| Step 8 | Step | 6.922 | 1 | .009 |
| Block | 147.042 | 6 | .000 | |
| Model | 147.042 | 6 | .000 |
Properties of independent variables
| The independent variables | Nature | Definitions or thresholds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Short-term solvency indicators | Current ratio X1 | Continuous variables | Current assets ÷ Current liabilities |
| Quick ratio X2 | Continuous variables | Quick assets ÷ Current liabilities | |
| Cash flow liability ratio X3 | Continuous variables | Net operating cash flow ÷ Current liabilities | |
| Indicators of long-term solvency | Asset-liability ratio X4 | Continuous variables | The total amount of liabilities ÷ The total assets of |
| Equity ratio X5 | Continuous variables | Liabilities ÷ Owner’s equity | |
| Shareholders’ equity ratio X6 | Continuous variables | Owner’s equity ÷ assets | |
| Interest coverage multiple X7 | Continuous variables | (Total profit + interest expense) ÷ Interest charges | |
| Operational capability index | Accounts receivable turnover X8 | Continuous variables | Net income from main business ÷ Average balance of accounts receivable |
| Deposit turnover X9 | Continuous variables | Main business cost ÷ Mean surviving balance | |
| Shareholder’s equity turnover X10 | Continuous variables | Main business revenue ÷ Average balance of shareholders’ equity | |
| Total asset turnover X11 | Continuous variables | Main business revenue ÷ Average balance of assets | |
| Profitability index | Net profit rate on sales X12 | Continuous variables | Net profit ÷ Main business revenue |
| Return on assets X13 | Continuous variables | Net profit ÷ Average balance of assets | |
| Return on shareholders’ equity X14 | Continuous variables | Net profit ÷ Average balance of shareholders’ equity | |
| Development Capability Indicators | Growth rate of net assets X15 | Continuous variables | (Owners’ equity at year end-Owners’ equity at the beginning of the year) ÷Owners’ equity at the beginning of the year |
| Growth rate of total assets X16 | Continuous variables | (Total assets at year-end-Total assets at the beginning of year) ÷ Total assets at the beginning of year | |
| Main business revenue growth rate X17 | Continuous variables | (Year-end main operating income-Main operating revenue at the beginning of the year) ÷Main operating revenue at the beginning of the year | |
| Growth rate of after-tax profits X18 | Continuous variables | (Net interest rate at year end-Net interest at the beginning of the year) ÷Net interest at the beginning of the year | |
| Qualitative indicators | Quality of key management personnel X19 | Ordered class variables | “The leaders of the enterprise have rich management experience, strong management ability, remarkable historical performance and good social reputation for personal tourism”=5 ; “Corporate leaders have strong management ability and good management experience”=4; “Business leaders have strong management ability and certain management experience”=3 ; “Business leaders have general management ability and experience”=2; “other”=1 |
| Enterprise management level X20 | Ordered class variables | “The property right is clear, the organization structure is perfect, the property system is sound”=3; “general”=2; “other”=1 |
Prediction of the model when the cut-off point is 0.5
| Custom | percentage | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Custom | Bad customer | Good customer | Correct |
| Bad customer | 18 | 6 | 75.0 |
| Good customer | 4 | 55 | 93.2 |
| Overall percentage | 88.0 | ||
The prediction of the model when the cut-off point is 0.7
| Custom | percentage | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Custom | Bad customer | Good custome | Correct |
| Bad customer | 21 | 3 | 87.5 |
| Good custome | 6 | 53 | 89.8 |
| Overall percentage | 89.2 | ||
Hosmer-Lemeshow Test
| Step | Chi-square | df | sig |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7.222 | 3 | .065 |
| 2 | 9.985 | 8 | .266 |
| 3 | 5.324 | 8 | .722 |
| 4 | 1.488 | 8 | .993 |
| 5 | 1.293 | 8 | .996 |
| 6 | 2.442 | 8 | .964 |
| 7 | 2.630 | 8 | .955 |
| 8 | 2.185 | 8 | .975 |
Block 1: Method=Forward Stepwise
| B | S.E. | Wald | df | Sig | Exp(B) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Step 1a | 1.331 | .238 | 31.148 | 1 | .000 | 3.783 | |
| Constant | -2.179 | .498 | 19.163 | 1 | .000 | .113 | |
| Step 2b | 8.078 | 1.784 | 20.498 | 1 | .000 | 3222.223 | |
| 1.505 | .326 | 21.337 | 1 | .000 | 4.502 | ||
| Constant | -5.303 | 1.058 | 25.140 | 1 | .000 | .005 | |
| Step 3c | 8.612 | 1.933 | 19.840 | 1 | .000 | 5496.420 | |
| 2.575 | 1.045 | 6.069 | 1 | .014 | 13.132 | ||
| 1.565 | .344 | 20.679 | 1 | .000 | 4.781 | ||
| Constant | -5.623 | 1.131 | 24.707 | 1 | .000 | .004 | |
| Step 4d | 8.742 | 2.100 | 17.327 | 1 | .000 | 6261.249 | |
| 3.053 | 1.147 | 7.092 | 1 | .008 | 21.181 | ||
| 1.414 | .346 | 16.708 | 1 | .000 | 4.113 | ||
| 1.407 | .476 | 8.726 | 1 | .003 | 4,084 | ||
| Constant | -8.125 | 1.714 | 22.461 | 1 | .000 | .000 | |
| Step 5e | 9.582 | 3.431 | 7.799 | 1 | .005 | 14507.807 | |
| 10.112 | 2.551 | 15.718 | 1 | .000 | 24542.686 | ||
| 2.996 | 1.296 | 5.343 | 1 | .021 | 20.014 | ||
| 1.442 | .367 | 15.439 | 1 | .000 | 4.228 | ||
| 1,807 | .565 | 10.215 | 1 | .001 | 6.090 | ||
| Constant | -10.309 | 2.299 | 20.112 | 1 | .000 | .000 | |
| Step 6f | 9.069 | 4.046 | 5.025 | 1 | .025 | 6684.620 | |
| 11.634 | 3.498 | 11.058 | 1 | .001 | 112847.4 | ||
| 3.484 | 1.995 | 3.051 | 1 | .081 | 32.594 | ||
| 6.081 | 2.339 | 6.760 | 1 | .009 | 437.644 | ||
| 1.600 | .439 | 13.263 | 1 | .000 | 4.952 | ||
| -1.441 | .567 | 6.466 | 1 | .011 | 4.226 | ||
| Constant | -10.717 | 2.602 | 16.962 | 1 | .000 | .000 | |
| Step 7f | 9.476 | 3.823 | 6.145 | 1 | ..013 | 13046.413 | |
| 11.407 | 3.426 | 11.087 | 1 | .001 | 89911.947 | ||
| 6.297 | 2.295 | 7.530 | 1 | .006 | 543.072 | ||
| 1.569 | .427 | 13.501 | 1 | .000 | 4.803 | ||
| 1.409 | .552 | 6.519 | 1 | .011 | 4.092 | ||
| Constant | -10.587 | 2.567 | 17.006 | 1 | .000 | .000 | |
| Step 8g | 10.142 | 4.362 | 5.405 | 1 | .020 | 25399.128 | |
| -.276 | .177 | 2.437 | 1 | .119 | .759 | ||
| 10.080 | 3.100 | 10.573 | 1 | .001 | 23855.343 | ||
| 8.276 | 2.703 | 9.377 | 1 | .002 | 3927.887 | ||
| 2.111 | .596 | 12.547 | 1 | .000 | 8.259 | ||
| -1.404 | .590 | 5.664 | 1 | .017 | 4.071 | ||
| Constant | -10.562 | 2.787 | 14.365 | 1 | .000 | .000 |
Model Summary
| -2 Log | Cox&Snell | Nagelkerke | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Step | likelihood | R Square | R Square |
| 1 | 129.593a | .316 | 444 |
| 2 | 77.879b | .515 | 724 |
| 3 | 74.269c | .527 | 740 |
| 4 | 63.951c | .558 | 785 |
| 5 | 53.695d | .588 | 826 |
| 6 | 45.133d | .610 | 858 |
| 7 | 46.403d | .607 | 853 |
| 8 | 39.481d | .625 | 878 |