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Research on Financial Fraud Identification Mechanisms Incorporating ESG Information

  
05 feb 2025

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Figure 1.

Recognition design process
Recognition design process

Figure 2.

Accuracy and coverage curve of illegal sample inspection
Accuracy and coverage curve of illegal sample inspection

Figure 3.

Accuracy and coverage curve of non-compliance sample inspection
Accuracy and coverage curve of non-compliance sample inspection

Govern dimension score

Rating time Best peer score Worse peer score Average peer score K score Rank
2015 14.077 9.433 11.407 10.449 17/22
2016 16.639 10.795 13.249 9.947 17/17
2017 15.160 10.409 13.327 10.794 13/16
2018 17.923 8.882 14.234 10.445 18/21

Society responsibility dimension score

Rating time Best peer score Worse peer score Average peer score K score Rank
2015 25.920 14.705 17.081 15.253 14/22
2016 25.043 15.785 17.552 16.048 11/17
2017 22.274 13.019 17.965 17.964 4/16
2018 21.957 11.818 17.755 17.587 12/21

Performance evaluation of different models

Model Accuracy(%) Precision(%) Recall(%) F1(%) Time(s)
SVM 79.48 69.27 77.19 73.01 1585
BP 85.28 81.07 72.84 76.73 2582
RF 90.49 76.66 74.76 75.70 2150
GBDT 91.52 85.21 68.85 76.16 620
XGBoost 94.11 90.68 68.78 78.23 50

Environmental dimension score

Rating time Best peer score Worse peer score Average peer score K score Rank
2015 23.797 14.563 16.516 18.407 10/22
2016 24.839 15.875 17.183 15.759 7/17
2017 23.404 14.274 19.199 17.456 8/16
2018 28.434 16.184 17.786 23.066 6/21

The distribution of financial fraud companies

Year Number of listed companies The number of corrupt companies The proportion of fraudulent companies among the listed companies in that year(%)
1998 829 27 3.26%
1999 927 40 4.31%
2000 1060 51 4.81%
2001 1141 34 2.98%
2002 1201 41 3.41%
2003 1265 53 4.19%
2004 1355 48 3.54%
2005 1352 31 2.29%
2006 1430 29 2.03%
2007 1547 28 1.81%
2008 1604 25 1.56%
2009 1753 30 1.71%
2010 2102 37 1.76%
2011 2344 50 2.13%
2012 2471 70 2.83%
2013 2518 64 2.54%
2014 2634 93 3.53%
2015 2822 124 4.39%
2016 3123 171 5.48%
2017 3495 208 5.95%
2018 3588 187 5.21%
Sum 40561 1441 3.55%