Apartment Prices on the Real Estate Market in Poland

The purpose of the research was to analyse the primary and secondary real estate markets in Poland during the period from 2006 to the second quarter of 2024. The real estate market is currently influenced by many previously unpredictable factors, particularly those related to the war in Ukraine. Using statistical tools, the study focused on transaction prices of properties in both the secondary markets. Projections of price changes were prepared, along with an analysis of price convergence between cities and the rate of return on real estate rental.

The forecasts indicate that transaction prices in both the secondary markets will continue to rise in future periods. Statistical data provided by the National Bank of Poland were used, and the parameters of the linear function were estimated using the classical least squares method. Calculations were performed using the Gretl software. The unconditional convergence model was applied to assess convergence.

The study was conducted in 17 cities in Poland, covering the period from the third quarter of 2006 to the second quarter of 2024. It was demonstrated that, from quarter to quarter, property prices in the primary market increase on average by 40 PLN per square meter, and in the secondary market by 30 PLN per square meter. Forecast parameters indicate that, as a result of time progression, the transaction price of flats in the primary market increases on average by 4.35 PLN per square meter each quarter.