Demographic Determinants of Creativity: The Analysis of the Development of Creative Potential and Forecast for the Baltic States

Human capital, affected by the demographic determinants, nowadays becomes a novel driver of change and regional development. Changes in the modern economy determine the future leading role of human capital, especially its creative dimension in the development of modern, sustainable competitive advantages of countries and regions. Considering the negative demographical tendencies in the Baltic States, the aim of this paper is to analyse and forecast the development of creative potential in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. Our methodology is based on the estimation of a regression model describing the relations between Global Creativity Index (GCI) and its components with the available demographic data in 28 European Union member countries. Model estimation results indicate a particular importance of population age composition for all GCI components, while education attainment levels appear to be highly significant for the technology and talent components. Using the estimated model parameters, authors elaborate a simple forecast for the three Baltic States using the current demographic projections, while outlining the strengths and potential weaknesses of each country in the long-term perspective.