<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"> The paper develops the concept of harnessing data classification methods to recognize patterns in stock prices. The author defines a formation as a pattern vector describing the financial instrument. Elements of such a vector can be related to the stock price as well as sales volume and other characteristics of the financial instrument. The study uses data concerning selected companies listed on the stock exchange in New York. It takes into account a number of variables that describe the behavior of prices and volume, both in the short and long term. Partitioning around medoids method has been used for data classification (for pattern recognition). An evaluation of the possibility of using certain formations for practical purposes has also been presented.</abstract>

Forecasting Changes in Stock Prices on the Basis of Patterns Identified with the Use of Data Classification Methods

<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"> Most investors believe that left tails of the stock returns distribution are heavier than the right ones. It is a natural consequence of crashes perception as much more turbulent than the booms. Crashes develop in shorter time intervals than booms and changes of prices are significantly bigger. This paper focuses on the extreme behavior of stock market returns. The differences in the tails thickness of distribution are negligible. Its main result is that the differences between tails have been found in the clustering of extremes, especially during the crash of 2007-2009.</abstract>

A Comparison of Tail Behaviour of Stock Market Returns

<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"> In this paper a new method of estimating the shape parameter of generalized error distribution (GED), called ‘approximated moment method’, was proposed. The following estimators were considered: the one obtained through the maximum likelihood method (MLM), approximated fast estimator (AFE), and approximated moment method (AMM). The quality of estimator was evaluated on the basis of the value of the relative mean square error. Computer simulations were conducted using random number generators for the following shape parameters: s = 0.5, s = 1.0 (Laplace distribution) s = 2.0 (Gaussian distribution) and s = 3.0.</abstract>

Szczecin University Faculty of Management and Economics of Services Department of Quantitative Methods Cukrowa 8, 71-004 Szczecin, Poland

MA Szczecin University Faculty of Management and Economics of Services Department of Quantitative Methods Cukrowa 8, 71-004 Szczecin, Poland

Estimation of the Shape Parameter of Ged Distribution for a Small Sample Size

<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"> The paper proposes the fundamental portfolio of securities. This portfolio is an alternative for the classic Markowitz model, which combines fundamental analysis with portfolio analysis. The method’s main idea is based on the use of the TMAI1 synthetic measure and, in limiting conditions, the use of risk and the portfolio’s rate of return in the objective function. Different variants of fundamental portfolio have been considered under an empirical study. The effectiveness of the proposed solutions has been related to the classic portfolio constructed with the help of the Markowitz model and the WIG20 market index’s rate of return. All portfolios were constructed with data on rates of return for 2005. Their effectiveness in 2006- 2013 was then evaluated. The studied period comprises the end of the bull market, the 2007-2009 crisis, the 2010 bull market and the 2011 crisis. This allows for the evaluation of the solutions’ flexibility in various extreme situations. For the construction of the fundamental portfolio’s objective function and the TMAI, the study made use of financial and economic data on selected indicators retrieved from Notoria Serwis for 2005.</abstract>

Different Variants of Fundamental Portfolio

<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"> Various statistical analyses reveal that the position of women in the labour market is worse when compared to men. In the majority, or nearly in all countries of the EU, women obtain lower income than men and are in a greater risk of becoming unemployed. The problem of such differentiation in the labour market is still valid despite the various activities at the EU agenda aimed at reducing these disparities. The aim of this paper was to present the income situation of women who remain in a formal or informal relationship with men and to identify the factors which affect such a situation without making any reference to the problem of discrimination. The author used the data from Polish household budget survey of 2011.</abstract>

Income from Women’s Gainful Employment Compared to Household Income

<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"> An important determinant of the level of development of each country and the whole Europe is the care about an adequate level of well-being and quality of life of all citizens, above all those to whom the future belongs - our children. In the times of demographic changes it is particularly important to understand specific needs and rights of the youngest generation of Europeans. Investing in children is investing in our future, the shape of which will depend precisely on whether the youngest generation will be healthy, well educated and able to participate in the development of their societies. The aim of this study is to identify territorial differentiation of children’s well-being in Europe at the end of the first decade of the 21st century using the methods of multivariate data analysis. The study was based on data published by Eurostat (among others EU-SILC), OECD (PISA), UNICEF, WORLD BANK and WHO (HBSC) for the years 2009 and 2010.</abstract>

Ph.D. Poznań University of Economics Faculty of Economics Department of Statistics and Demography Al. Niepodległości 10, 61-875 Poznań, Poland

Ph.D. Poznań University of Economics Faculty of Commodity Science Department of SBusiness Activity Al. Niepodległości 10, 61-875 Poznań, Poland

Spatial Differentiation of Child Well-Being in Europe

<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"> This article refers to De Brouwer’s modification of portfolio selection from 2009. He modified the existing portfolio’s theories so that they could take into account the Maslov’s hierarchy of needs. This proposal could be also an alternative concept to the behavioural portfolio theory. Another theoretical concept which includes not only the hierarchy of needs but the pyramid portfolio is presented in this paper as well. The base point in this case is Markowitz’s model and the safety-first criterion by Roy. Such a construction should be a starting point for building an application in this field.</abstract>

The Maslowian Portfolio Theory Versus the Pyramid Portfolio

<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"> When studying literature on the issue coopetition it may be found that this issue has become more and more popular in recent years. However, this finding was not confirmed in economic practice. Reluctance or concerns about coopetition result from caution and distrust of Polish entrepreneurs in relation to other players on the market. In the previous socio-political conditions this approach was successful. However, the current situation forces small and medium-sized enterprises to draw attention to the strategy of “sleeping with the enemy.” In this context, the objective of the study was to answer the question of what factors influence establishing coopetition in south-western Poland in a simulative or detrimental way.</abstract>

Selected Determinants of Coopetition of Industrial Enterprises in South-Western Poland in 2009–2011

<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"> The main purpose of the article is a critical analysis of the monetary policy strategy that is based on the adoption of money supply as an intermediate target. The analysis is conducted from the perspective of the theory of the Austrian school. The first part of the article presents an influence of the supply of money on changes of categories in economy according to mainstream theories of economics. The second part discusses the essence of the strategy of monetary policy using money supply as an intermediate target from the point of view of the main trend in economics. It is demonstrated that in order to use it, two elementary conditions must be met: the function of demand for money must be at least relatively stable and the central bank must practically shape changes in the money supply at the planned level. The third part is of key importance for the purpose of this article. It involves the criticism of Friedman’s principle, i.e. a constant increase in money supply as a monetary strategy. According to the Austrian theory, an increase in the quantity of money which is not financed by voluntary savings separates the time structure of production and consumption. Thus, after the period of prosperity there a collapse in production must take place. It is also pointed out that the crisis can be postponed only when the quantity of money increases at an ever faster rate.</abstract>

Money Supply as the Target of the Central Bank

<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"> Green growth strategies thus need to be robust, what requires carefully designed tools. One of the prerequisites is the appropriate green growth measurement framework. It should allow discerning the effectiveness of policies in delivering green growth. This is where this paper tries to offer a new angle by searching for appropriate indicators that can capture different aspects of eco-innovation. Eco-innovation can be defined as innovation that results in a reduction of environmental impact. Country data from the 2008 Community Innovation Survey is used in the analysis. Dataset consist of 14 variables on environmental benefits and motivations. The aim of the presented study is to reduce the number of variables into factors to discover which of available variables form coherent subsets. It is argued here that such approach can help to construct appropriate indicators, that can capture different aspects of eco-innovation, that are crucial from the point of view of policy-making and policy evaluation.</abstract>

Measuring Eco-Innovation: Towards Better Policies to Support Green Growth

<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"> The aim of this paper is to present China’s economic model and discuss, in this context, bilateral trade and investment relations between China and Poland. The analysis presented herein is based on the strategy of cooperation with countries of Central and Eastern Europe, as presented by China’s Prime Minister, and on the growing importance of Poland as a main partner of China in the Central and Eastern Europe region. The paper describes main premises of the Chinese economic model, followed by a diagnosis of Chinese economy. The authors analyze the main directions of China’s foreign cooperation, placing the emphasis on relations with Poland.</abstract>

China’s Trade Policy Towards Central and Eastern Europe in the 21St Century, Example of Poland

AHEAD OF PRINT

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