Using Adverse Event Pyramids to Assess Probabilities in Airline Safety Management

This article reviews the methods of safety management using Heinrich’s and Bird’s pyramids. The presence of a causal relationship between pyramid levels, as a result of inconsistencies in the activities of an organization and personnel, lead to incidents, and incidents in turn lead to accidents. The existence of such a relationship makes it possible to predict the risk of “top-level” events by reducing risks at the middle and lower levels. A mathematical description of the development process of an undesired aviation event is presented, which makes it possible to evaluate the probability of the successful (or unsuccessful) completion of a transportation task. Also given is an analysis of the development of an aviation accident, based on the example of the crash of a Lufthansa A-320 aircraft on 14 September 1993 at the airport of Warsaw (Poland) while landing in adverse weather conditions.