Predicting energy demand of residential buildings: A linear regression-based approach for a small sample size

The key design strategies that reduce the energy demand of buildings are not present in most thermal codes in many countries. Therefore, modeling techniques offer an alternative to combine the architects' modus operandi with the energy efficiency in the early stages of architectural design and with higher speed and precision. However, a review of the scientific literature using modeling techniques shows that most researchers use a relatively large sample of thermal simulations. This paper proposes a simplified method based on the linear regression modeling technique and considers a relatively smaller sample of thermal simulations. A total of 6 key building design strategies were identified, related to the urban context, building envelope, and shape factor. A simulation protocol containing 60 possible combinations was designed by random selection. In the present study, the Pleiades software was used to estimate the annual energy demand for heating and cooling for a typical dwelling in a humid climate zone. A parametric study and sensitivity analysis to identify the most efficient parameters was performed in SPSS 21. The resulting model predicts the annual energy demand with an accuracy of 93.7%, a root mean square error (RMSE) of 5.88, and a scatter index (SI) of 8.59%. The models performed could efficiently and quickly assist architects while designing the buildings in the architectural practice.