The electricity production in Poland compared to selected European countries

Progressing deficiency of world raw materials and aspiration for further CO₂ emission reduction encourage to seek possibilities for alternative - to fossil fuels - energy sources as the primary economy branch influencing emissions is the energy industry.

Despite the European Union’s share in global CO₂ emissions amounting to only 10% (comparing to the share of China - 27%, USA - 15%, India - 10%) [www.wysokienapiecie.pl], the EU plans to implement an ambitious climate policy. At least a 40% greenhouse gas emission reduction is planned by 2030 in relation to 1990, resulting from the Paris Agreement [www.unfccc.int]. The need for urgent measures to reduce GHG emissions has been clearly confirmed by the latest IPCC report [IPCC 2018]. Additional mechanism stimulating to limit CO₂ emissions, especially in energy sector, is the Emission Trading System (ETS) that imposes a necessity for covering all CO₂ emissions estimated for installation with allocated allowances [Directive 2018/410/EU]. Moreover, restrictions resulting from the regulation of the European Parliament and Council [Regulation… 2019] prevents - from 1 July 2025 - receiving payments and liabilities within the capacity market for carbon dioxide emission units releasing above 550 g CO₂ per kWh of produced electricity.

All these issues trigger serious challenges for the sector affecting costs and competitiveness of installations, and even more - potential transfer of production to countries where no burdens resulting from the implementation of climate policy occur. At the same time, despite the systematic implementation of the provisions of directive on energy efficiency [Directive… 2012], further increase in demand for electricity is expected in Poland [https://www.gov.pl/web/aktywa-panstwowe/], so the use of alternative energy sources is taken into account. Additional argument is the fact that CO₂ emissions from the electricity and commercial heat production sector (1.A.1.a IPCC category in the national greenhouse gas inventory) in Poland accounts for over 46% of the total national CO₂ emission. It implies, that the analysis of the energy sector in the context of reducing GHG emissions seems to be justified. Having all these circumstances, the need appears to seek information on emission intensity, allowing to assess the effectiveness of measures aimed at emission reduction. In the absence of appropriate benchmarks, it would be difficult to assess whether the action is effective enough and to what extent it reduces emissions. For example, if emission intensity of energy production is relatively high, then substituting traditional cars with electric ones may not bring the expected results for the environment despite incurring high costs.

The purpose of the article is to present specific data to assess how Poland compares with other countries in terms of CO₂ emissions from electricity production and to show how fuel mix change can significantly affect the level of emissions.

The analysis regarding fuels’ use and CO₂ emission from electricity generation included in the paper was based on the statistical data on electricity generation and fuel consumption from EUROSTAT database [EUROSTAT 2019] as well as the GHG emission data from National Inventory Reports [IOS-PIB, 2019; UNFCCC, 2018]. CO₂ emission intensity presented in the article is based on methodology and data from EEA study [EEA, 2018]. The CO₂ emissions presented in the article were calculated in accordance with the recommendations contained in the IPCC guidelines [IPCC, 2006], which are applied in the national greenhouse gas inventory [IOS-PIB 2019].

The CO₂ emission associated with electricity production depends on the fuel used for its generation. For example, average CO₂ emission intensity values for electricity production from particular fuels in power plants and combined heat and power plants in Poland, estimated on the basis of an analysis of 10 years (2008–2017), were as follows: –

lignite 1377 g CO₂ / kWh (the range of values: 1217–1523 g CO₂ / kWh),

The estimation was based on the statistical data on fuel consumption per electricity production [GUS 2018], CO₂ emission factors for individual fuels [IOS-PIB 2019] and the volume of electricity production [EUROSTAT 2019].

On the other hand, electricity production from nuclear and renewable sources (including from biomass combustion) is treated as zero-emission production in terms of CO₂.

In 2017, 170 TWh (TWh = 10⁹ kWh) of electricity was produced in Poland (Figure 1), of which about 77% of the electricity produced came from coal burning (over 46% from hard coal and almost 31% from lignite). Share of RES (renewable energy sources) in electricity production was over 14%, and natural gas share reached almost 6%. Compared with other countries, the share of energy electricity from coal burning is relatively high in Poland, though a significant decrease can be observed since 1990, when almost 96% domestic electricity production originated from coal combustion (Figure 2). A systematic increase in the share of energy from renewable sources is noticeable (from 2.5% in 1990 to 14% in 2017).

Figure 1

Figure 2

Generally, on average in EU countries, with over 3 thousand TWh of electricity produced (Figure 3), 20% comes from coal, 20% from natural gas, over 30% from renewable energy sources and 25% from nuclear energy (Figure 4). These shares differ a lot among the Member States. For instance, in Germany, with an annual electricity production of approximately 650 TWh (Figure 5), less than 37% electricity originates from coal combustion, 34% from RES, over 13% from natural gas and over 11% from nuclear power (Figure 6).

Figure 3

Figure 4

Figure 5

Figure 6

Czechia has a fairly large share of coal in the structure of fuels used for electricity production, almost 48%, but at the same time, 32% comes from nuclear power and over 12 from renewable energy sources (Figures 7 and 8).

Figure 7

Figure 8

For France, a large share of nuclear energy is characteristic (i.e., over 70%) (Figures 9 and 10). Italy, like Poland, does not use nuclear power, but electricity from coal accounts for only 11%, while over 47% electricity is generated from gas natural gas and almost 36% from RES (Figures 11 and 12).

Figure 9

Figure 10

Figure 11

Figure 12

In Sweden, 58% of the electricity produced comes from renewable energy sources and 40% from energy nuclear (Figures 13 and 14). In the case of Hungary, almost half of the electricity produced comes from a nuclear power plant, while over 20% comes from a gas power plant (Figures 15 and 16). In Spain, a decrease in the share of nuclear power in electricity production is observed (to around 20%) with simultaneous increase in share of renewable sources in energy generation (up to over 30%) (Figures 17 and 18). Presented shares were estimated on the basis of own calculations based on statistical data reported in the Eurostat database [EUROSTAT 2019].

Figure 13

Figure 14

Figure 15

Figure 16

Figure 17

Figure 18

The structure of fuels used for electricity generation determines the CO₂ emission intensity for this sector. Figure 19 presents the CO₂ emissions from electricity production per unit of energy generated [EEA 2018].

Figure 19

Poland, due to the large share of coal in the electricity generation, has relatively high value of this indicator but systematic decline is observed since 1990. According to EEA data for 2016, this indicator amounted respectively 773 g CO₂ / kWh, while the EU average is below 300 g CO₂ / kWh. The unique Member State is Sweden with extremely low emission intensity of electricity generation amounting to 13 g CO₂ / kWh in 2016. Here, Iceland should also be mentioned as an example of economy based on zero emission electricity production, as it is based on renewable sources – hydro- and geothermal. Consequently, the use of alternative energy sources is highly beneficial for reducing emissions and meeting commitments, but also allowing to decrease the use of mineral resources.

Significant changes in the direction mentioned above are assumed in the forecasts for Poland in the Energy Policy for Poland 2040 (PEP 2040) [PEP 2040 2019] and scenario in Climate and Energy Policy Scenario from National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) [https://www.gov.pl/web/aktywapanstwowe/]. Figure 20 presents the share of particular types of fuels in the input for electricity and commercial heat production, adopted in the mentioned scenario. Coal fuels in this case include: hard coal and lignite (together with briquettes), coke, coke oven gas and blast furnace gas. The forecast shows a decrease in the share of coal fuels and an increase in the share of gas, RES and the appearance of nuclear energy from 2035 (starting of the nuclear power block exploitation is planned for 2033).

Figure 20

Figure 21. presents the projected CO₂ emission until 2040 according to NECP (green bars in the chart) together with the forecast production of electricity and commercial heat. To illustrate how the fuel structure affects the amount of CO₂ emissions, a reference scenario was created (orange bars in the figure), which assumes the production of the same amount of electricity and heat as forecast for the particular years presented from the period 2020–2040, but assuming preservation of technology and fuel structure from 2015.

Figure 21

In the scenario according to draft of Energy Policy for Poland 2040, there is a clear decrease in the emissions of CO₂, despite a significant increase in the electricity and commercial heat production.

The implementation of the scenario consistent with the project Energy Policy for Poland 2040 would allow avoid approximately 15% of CO₂ emissions from the production of electricity and commercial heat in 2020 and up to approximately 60% in 2040 compared to the scenario maintaining the fuel structure from 2015.

The data and comparisons presented above indicate that without use alternative - to fossil fuels - energy sources will be difficult to meet the requirements imposed on Poland relating to air emissions. Solution to this problem will require introduction of appropriate measures in the energy production sector like development of nuclear energy [Gawlik, Mokrzycki, 2019; Sobolewski, 2019] and systematic increase of energy from RES, especially from those RES that do not cause emissions of other pollutants (e.g., solar energy, which is completely zero-emission, unlike biomass combustion), which other authors have also emphasized [Szczerbowski, Kornobis, 2019].

Undertaking the above-mentioned activities is particularly important, especially in the light of the increase in demand for electricity in Poland, as indicated by the available forecasts [Agora Energiewende, 2018; Sobolewski, 2019; https://www.gov.pl/web/aktywa-panstwowe/] and comparisons of energy consumption per capita in different countries. In Poland, the electricity consumption rate per capita is still much lower than in the Western European countries. According to 2016 data [EEA 2018], the electricity consumption in Poland amounted to 3.5 MWh per capita, while, for example, in Finland - 14.7 MWh, in Sweden - 12.8 MWh and in Luxembourg - almost 11 MWh.

The projected increase in energy consumption makes such analyses related to the energy sector, and in particular those resulting in emission reductions, will be still of great interest. Impact assessment of individual activities influencing the environment will require an estimate of current, representative benchmarks related to energy production.