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Explaining the Evolution of Job Tenure in Europe, 1995–2020

Maurizio Bussolo
Maurizio Bussolo
, 
Damien Capelle
Damien Capelle
, 
Michael M. Lokshin
Michael M. Lokshin
, 
Iván Torre
Iván Torre
 und 
Hernan Winkler
Hernan Winkler
   | 09. Nov. 2023
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Online veröffentlicht: 09. Nov. 2023
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Eingereicht: 12. Sept. 2022
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/izajolp-2023-0007
Schlüsselwörter
© 2023 Maurizio Bussolo et al., published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Figure 1

Average tenure by year and subregion of Europe.Note: Sample includes employed population 20–65.
Average tenure by year and subregion of Europe.Note: Sample includes employed population 20–65.

Figure 2

Average tenure by cohort and age.Note: This figure plots the average tenure (in years) by age for five-year birth cohorts. Sample includes employed population 20 to 65 and all countries in the sample.
Average tenure by cohort and age.Note: This figure plots the average tenure (in years) by age for five-year birth cohorts. Sample includes employed population 20 to 65 and all countries in the sample.

Figure 3

Changes in job tenure by workers’ age.Note: Figures show changes in job tenure relative to the youngest group of workers (workers 15–20). The synthetic panel is based on the pulled sample of all workers 20–65 in 29 countries from 26 years of data from the EU-LFS.
Changes in job tenure by workers’ age.Note: Figures show changes in job tenure relative to the youngest group of workers (workers 15–20). The synthetic panel is based on the pulled sample of all workers 20–65 in 29 countries from 26 years of data from the EU-LFS.

Figure 4

Changes in job tenure by workers’ age cohorts.Note: Figures show changes in job tenure relative to the cohort of workers born in 1930. The synthetic panel is based on the pulled sample of all workers 20–65 years in 29 countries from 26 years of data from the EU-LFS.
Changes in job tenure by workers’ age cohorts.Note: Figures show changes in job tenure relative to the cohort of workers born in 1930. The synthetic panel is based on the pulled sample of all workers 20–65 years in 29 countries from 26 years of data from the EU-LFS.

Figure 5

Changes in job tenure by survey period.Note: Figures show changes in job tenure relative to the 1995 survey period. The synthetic panel is based on the pulled sample of all workers 20–65 in 29 countries from 26 years of data from the EU-LFS.
Changes in job tenure by survey period.Note: Figures show changes in job tenure relative to the 1995 survey period. The synthetic panel is based on the pulled sample of all workers 20–65 in 29 countries from 26 years of data from the EU-LFS.

Figure 6

APC ME decomposition of age effect by different characteristics.Note: Figures show changes in job tenure relative to the 1995 survey period. The synthetic panel is based on the pulled sample of all workers 20–65 years in 29 countries from 26 years of data from the EU-LFS.
APC ME decomposition of age effect by different characteristics.Note: Figures show changes in job tenure relative to the 1995 survey period. The synthetic panel is based on the pulled sample of all workers 20–65 years in 29 countries from 26 years of data from the EU-LFS.

Figure 7

APC decomposition of cohort effect by different characteristics.Note: Figures show changes in job tenure relative to the 1995 survey period. The synthetic panel is based on the pulled sample of all workers 20–65 years in 29 countries from 26 years of data from the EU-LFS.
APC decomposition of cohort effect by different characteristics.Note: Figures show changes in job tenure relative to the 1995 survey period. The synthetic panel is based on the pulled sample of all workers 20–65 years in 29 countries from 26 years of data from the EU-LFS.

Figure A1

Marginal effects by year of the survey.Note: This figure plots the marginal effects for the estimated probability of job tenure being less than one year for the total sample. The fitted line is the OLS estimation with the coefficient 0.098 corresponding to the first coefficient in Table 3. EU-LFS 1995–2020.
Marginal effects by year of the survey.Note: This figure plots the marginal effects for the estimated probability of job tenure being less than one year for the total sample. The fitted line is the OLS estimation with the coefficient 0.098 corresponding to the first coefficient in Table 3. EU-LFS 1995–2020.

The impact of stricter employment protection measures on the probability of having short, medium, and long-term job tenure, 1995–2020.

Length of tenure (years)
Less than 1 5 to 10 More than 10
Sub-samples Coeff. Std. Error Coeff. Std. Error Coeff. Std. Error
More difficult to dismiss regular workers
Total −0.861** 0.333 0.021 0.317 0.347 0.931
Gender
  Males −0.788* 0.346 0.308 0.330 −0.863 0.939
  Females −0.940** 0.333 −0.285 0.346 1.774** 0.989
Education
  Lower secondary −0.987** 0.480 −0.323 0.375 0.400 1.078
  Upper secondary −1.024** 0.364 0.132 0.339 0.207 0.973
  High: Third level −0.728** 0.284 0.012 0.306 −0.405 0.849
Age
  30–40 −0.764** 0.349 0.484 0.459 1.330 1.010
  40–50 −0.395 0.245 −0.316 0.437 0.334 1.004
  50+ −0.382** 0.188 0.183 0.394 −0.601 0.836
More difficult to hire temporary workers
Total −0.121 0.157 −0.230 0.165 1.233** 0.408**
Gender
  Males −0.157 0.161 −0.169 0.164 1.197** 0.407**
  Females −0.072 0.157 −0.249 0.185 1.260** 0.441**
Education
  Lower secondary −0.159 0.211 −0.111 0.195 0.915* 0.461*
  Upper secondary −0.167 0.165 −0.085 0.179 1.023* 0.425*
  High: Third level 0.010 0.137 −0.605*** 0.163 1.603*** 0.364***
Age
  30–40 −0.189 0.164 0.569** 0.245 0.148 0.475
  40–50 −0.189* 0.112 −0.649*** 0.202 2.020*** 0.424
  50+ −0.105 0.084 −0.677*** 0.170 1.833*** 0.345

Countries included in the analysis sample and subregional grouping

Subregion Country
Central Europe and the Baltic countries Bulgaria
Croatia
Czech Republic
Estonia
Hungary
Latvia
Lithuania
Poland
Romania
Slovak Republic
Slovenia
Northern Europe Denmark
Finland
Iceland
Norway
Sweden
Southern Europe Cyprus
Greece
Italy
Portugal
Spain
Western Europe Austria
Belgium
France
Ireland
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Switzerland
Untied Kingdom

Descriptive statistics.

Variable Mean Std. Dev. Min. Max. Obs.
Tenure (in years) 10.44 9.93 0 47 24,506,274
Female 0.47 0.49 0 1 ---
Age 41.42 11.23 22 62 ---
Education
  Lower secondary 0.22 0.41 0 1 ---
  Upper secondary 0.48 0.49 0 1 ---
  Tertiary 0.27 0.44 0 1 ---
Married 0.31 0.46 0 1 ---
Temporary work 0.11 0.31 0 1 ---
Full-time work 0.84 0.36 0 1 ---
Firm size (number of employees)
  1 – 10 0.25 0.43 0 1 ---
  11 – 19 0.11 0.32 0 1 ---
  20 – 49 0.15 0.36 0 1 ---
  50 or more 0.36 0.48 0 1 ---
  Less than 11 0.04 0.20 0 1 ---
  More than 10 0.25 0.43 0 1 ---
GDP growth 1.53 2.18 −4.92 3.90 29
EPR (v.1) 2.40 0.80 1.10 5 690
EPT (v.1) 1.92 1.22 0.125 5.25 690
Trade openness 105.57 56.04 36.16 408.36 724
ICT per capita capital stock (EUR th.) 454.46 672.56 2.74 6678.61 436

The impact of a change in trade openness on the probability of having short, medium, and long-term job tenure, 1995–2020.

Sub-samples Length of tenure (years)
Less than 1 5 to 10 More than 10
Coeff. Std. Error Coeff. Std. Error Coeff. Std. Error
Change in trade openness
Total 3.846** 1.267 2.129 1.522 −0.050 3.397
Gender
  Males 4.907*** 1.290 2.097 1.432 −1.266 3.360
  Females 2.669** 1.283 2.154 1.753 1.252 3.697
Education
  Lower-secondary 3.991** 1.644 1.587 1.750 2.092 3.744
  Upper-secondary 4.342*** 1.310 1.761 1.614 0.438 3.532
  High: Third level 2.829** 1.131 3.467 1.608 −2.334 2.965
Age
  30–40 3.761*** 1.333 2.426 2.205 1.507 4.083
  40–50 2.622*** 0.903 1.873 1.745 −0.050 3.500
  50+ 1.733** 0.671 1.198 1.401 −1.551 2.828
Technological change
Total 1.605* 0.938 1.898* 0.969 0.979 2.808
Gender
  Males 1.458 0.929 0.746 0.907 0.893 2.741
  Females 1.725* 0.979 3.271** 1.149 0.767 3.071
Education
  Lower secondary 1.014 1.171 1.899** 1.115 −0.306 3.096
  Upper secondary 1.913** 0.964 2.666** 1.067 1.052 2.941
  High: Third level 1.575* 0.846 1.218 1.039 1.757 2.329
Age groups
  Age 30–40 1.269 0.982 3.372** 1.452 1.438 3.453
  Age 40–50 0.831 0.662 1.248 1.147 1.426 2.815
  Age 50+ 0.855* 0.487 1.392 0.931 0.025 2.161

Estimated Yearly Percentage Point Trends for three tenure categories controling for the business cycle. 1995–2020.

Length of tenuare (years)
Less than 1 More than 5 More than 10
Sub-samples Coeff. Std. Error Coeff. Std. Error Coeff. Std. Error
Total 0.114*** 0.018 0.054 0.039 −0.253*** 0.038
Gender
  Males 0.097*** 0.019 0.076** 0.037 −0.276*** 0.039
  Females 0.134*** 0.018 0.025 0.044 −0.221*** 0.038
Education
  Lower-secondary 0.087*** 0.021 0.070 0.042 −0.288*** 0.044
  Upper-secondary 0.108*** 0.019 0.053 0.037 −0.249*** 0.036
  Tertiary 0.142*** 0.017 0.037 0.043 −0.177*** 0.031
Age groups
  30–40 0.120*** 0.018 0.071 0.058 −0.249*** 0.052
  40–50 0.090*** 0.012 0.119** 0.035 −0.308*** 0.034
  50+ 0.064*** 0.008 0.051 0.020 −0.182*** 0.022
Sub-regions
  Central Europe −0.129** 0.042 0.147*** 0.035 0.035 0.039
  Northern Europe 0.167*** 0.028 0.032 0.048 −0.492*** 0.029
  Southern Europe 0.017 0.024 0.084 0.050 −0.144** 0.040
  Western Europe 0.223*** 0.022 −0.005 0.046 −0.280*** 0.050

Estimated Yearly Percentage Point Trends for three tenure categories, 1995–2020.

Sub-samples Length of tenure (years)
Less than 1 5 to 10 More than 10
Coeff. Std. Error Coeff. Std. Error Coeff. Std. Error
Total 0.098*** 0.018 0.046 0.036 −0.269*** 0.035
Gender
  Males 0.079*** 0.019 0.070** 0.033 −0.288*** 0.036
  Females 0.119*** 0.017 0.014 0.039 −0.240*** 0.036
Education
  Lower-secondary 0.069** 0.021 0.063 0.038 −0.307*** 0.040
  Upper-secondary 0.091*** 0.019 0.048 0.034 −0.263*** 0.033
  Tertiary 0.128*** 0.017 0.024 0.039 −0.191*** 0.029
Age groups
  30–40 0.104*** 0.018 0.050 0.053 −0.265*** 0.047
  40–50 0.079*** 0.012 0.113** 0.032 −0.324*** 0.031
  50+ 0.056*** 0.008 0.054** 0.018 −0.196*** 0.021
Sub-regions
  Central Europe −0.135** 0.040 0.153*** 0.033 0.041 0.037
  Northern Europe 0.149*** 0.026 0.020 0.043 −0.496*** 0.026
  Southern Europe −0.002 0.024 0.068 0.046 −0.156*** 0.036
  Western Europe 0.211*** 0.021 −0.006 0.042 −0.302*** 0.047

Average tenure by subgroups, 1995–2020.

Sub-samples Representative years
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Total 10.32 10.27 10.04 10.19 10.47 10.33
Gender
  Males 11.11 10.80 10.43 10.63 10.84 10.67
  Females 9.19 9.56 9.54 9.66 10.03 9.94
Education
  Lower-secondary 11.32 11.53 11.37 11.56 11.67 11.21
  Upper-secondary 9.64 9.80 9.58 9.90 10.44 10.34
  Tertiary 9.70 9.43 9.46 9.56 9.86 9.89
Age
  25–29 4.20 3.81 3.52 3.47 3.35 3.06
  30–39 7.91 7.61 6.93 6.63 6.67 6.25
  40–49 13.22 12.96 12.10 11.54 11.31 10.87
  50+ 18.44 18.10 17.54 17.46 17.38 17.04
Type of contract
  Permanent 10.62 10.55 10.44 10.56 11.04 10.83
  Temporary 1.86 2.22 2.26 2.30 2.40 2.40
Sub-regions
  Central Europe N/A 9.29 9.24 9.38 9.55 9.76
  Northern Europe 9.59 9.18 9.26 9.09 9.00 8.55
  Southern Europe 11.79 11.14 10.89 11.30 11.73 11.65
  Western Europe 10.37 9.81 10.03 9.96 10.03 9.65
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