Uneingeschränkter Zugang

Are labor markets in the Middle East and North Africa recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic?

Caroline Krafft
Caroline Krafft
, 
Ragui Assaad
Ragui Assaad
, 
Mohamed Ali Marouani
Mohamed Ali Marouani
, 
Ruby Cheung
Ruby Cheung
 und 
Ava LaPlante
Ava LaPlante
   | 25. Sept. 2023
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Online veröffentlicht: 25. Sept. 2023
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Eingereicht: 20. Aug. 2022
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/izajodm-2023-0001
Schlüsselwörter
© 2023 Caroline Krafft et al., published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Figure 1

Monthly average of stringency index by country, March 2020 to January 2022.Source: Compiled by authors based on data from Hale et al. (2021).
Monthly average of stringency index by country, March 2020 to January 2022.Source: Compiled by authors based on data from Hale et al. (2021).

Figure 2

Quarterly economic growth rates relative to a year earlier, 2020–2021 (%).Sources: Ministry of Planning and Economic Development (2021) for Egypt, Department of Statistics (Jordan) (2021) for Jordan, Haut-Commissariat au Plan (2021) for Morocco, Institut National de la Statistique (INS) (2021) for Tunisia.Notes: Economic growth is growth of value added at constant prices in 2021 (2020) relative to the same quartile in 2020 (2019). Quarterly economic growth data are not available for Sudan.
Quarterly economic growth rates relative to a year earlier, 2020–2021 (%).Sources: Ministry of Planning and Economic Development (2021) for Egypt, Department of Statistics (Jordan) (2021) for Jordan, Haut-Commissariat au Plan (2021) for Morocco, Institut National de la Statistique (INS) (2021) for Tunisia.Notes: Economic growth is growth of value added at constant prices in 2021 (2020) relative to the same quartile in 2020 (2019). Quarterly economic growth data are not available for Sudan.

Figure 3

Predicted labor market status by wave and country, pooled model.Source: Authors’ calculations based on CMM, all waves, and interacted models in Table A3 in the Appendix. CMM, COVID-19 MENA Monitor; MENA, Middle East and North Africa.Notes: Bars represent 95% confidence intervals.
Predicted labor market status by wave and country, pooled model.Source: Authors’ calculations based on CMM, all waves, and interacted models in Table A3 in the Appendix. CMM, COVID-19 MENA Monitor; MENA, Middle East and North Africa.Notes: Bars represent 95% confidence intervals.

Figure 4

Predicted labor market status by initial (February 2020) labor market status, wave, and country.Source: Authors’ calculations based on CMM, all waves, and interacted models in Table A5 in the Appendix.Notes: Bars represent 95% confidence intervals. CMM, COVID-19 MENA Monitor; MENA, Middle East and North Africa.
Predicted labor market status by initial (February 2020) labor market status, wave, and country.Source: Authors’ calculations based on CMM, all waves, and interacted models in Table A5 in the Appendix.Notes: Bars represent 95% confidence intervals. CMM, COVID-19 MENA Monitor; MENA, Middle East and North Africa.

Figure 5

Predicted labor market status by household income quartile in February 2020, wave, and country.Source: Authors’ calculations based on CMM, all waves, and interacted models in Table A5 in the Appendix.Notes: Don’t know/refused/missing not shown. Bars represent 95% confidence intervals. CMM, COVID-19 MENA Monitor; MENA, Middle East and North Africa.
Predicted labor market status by household income quartile in February 2020, wave, and country.Source: Authors’ calculations based on CMM, all waves, and interacted models in Table A5 in the Appendix.Notes: Don’t know/refused/missing not shown. Bars represent 95% confidence intervals. CMM, COVID-19 MENA Monitor; MENA, Middle East and North Africa.

Figure 6

Predicted hours of work per week by wave and country.Source: Authors’ calculations based on CMM, all waves, and interacted models in Table A3 in the Appendix.Notes: Bars represent 95% confidence intervals. CMM, COVID-19 MENA Monitor; MENA, Middle East and North Africa.
Predicted hours of work per week by wave and country.Source: Authors’ calculations based on CMM, all waves, and interacted models in Table A3 in the Appendix.Notes: Bars represent 95% confidence intervals. CMM, COVID-19 MENA Monitor; MENA, Middle East and North Africa.

Figure 7

Predicted hours of work per week by initial (February 2020) labor market status, wave, and country.Source: Authors’ calculations based on CMM, all waves, and interacted models in Table A7 in the Appendix.Notes: February 2020 unemployed and out of labor force not shown. Bars show 95% confidence intervals. CMM, COVID-19 MENA Monitor; MENA, Middle East and North Africa.
Predicted hours of work per week by initial (February 2020) labor market status, wave, and country.Source: Authors’ calculations based on CMM, all waves, and interacted models in Table A7 in the Appendix.Notes: February 2020 unemployed and out of labor force not shown. Bars show 95% confidence intervals. CMM, COVID-19 MENA Monitor; MENA, Middle East and North Africa.

Figure 8

Predicted hours of work per week by household income quartile in February 2020, wave, and country.Source: Authors’ calculations based on CMM, all waves, and interacted models in Table A7 in the Appendix.Note: Bars show 95% confidence intervals. CMM, COVID-19 MENA Monitor; MENA, Middle East and North Africa.
Predicted hours of work per week by household income quartile in February 2020, wave, and country.Source: Authors’ calculations based on CMM, all waves, and interacted models in Table A7 in the Appendix.Note: Bars show 95% confidence intervals. CMM, COVID-19 MENA Monitor; MENA, Middle East and North Africa.

Figure 9

Predicted log hourly wages by country and wave.Source: Authors’ calculations based on CMM, all waves, and interacted models in Table A3 in the Appendix.Notes: Bars represent 95% confidence intervals. Log hourly wages were transformed into US$ terms based on January 1, 2021 exchange rates. CMM, COVID-19 MENA Monitor; MENA, Middle East and North Africa.
Predicted log hourly wages by country and wave.Source: Authors’ calculations based on CMM, all waves, and interacted models in Table A3 in the Appendix.Notes: Bars represent 95% confidence intervals. Log hourly wages were transformed into US$ terms based on January 1, 2021 exchange rates. CMM, COVID-19 MENA Monitor; MENA, Middle East and North Africa.

Figure 10

75th/25th percentile ratio of monthly wages, by country and wave.Source: Authors’ calculations based on CMM.Note: Given small sample size of wage earners in Sudan, Sudan is not shown. CMM, COVID-19 MENA Monitor; MENA, Middle East and North Africa.
75th/25th percentile ratio of monthly wages, by country and wave.Source: Authors’ calculations based on CMM.Note: Given small sample size of wage earners in Sudan, Sudan is not shown. CMM, COVID-19 MENA Monitor; MENA, Middle East and North Africa.

Figure 11

Predicted log hourly wages by initial (February 2020) labor market status, wave, and country.Source: Authors’ calculations based on CMM, all waves, and interacted models in Table A9 in the Appendix.Notes: February 2020 non-wage, unemployed, and out of labor force not shown. Bars represent 95% confidence intervals. CMM, COVID-19 MENA Monitor; MENA, Middle East and North Africa.
Predicted log hourly wages by initial (February 2020) labor market status, wave, and country.Source: Authors’ calculations based on CMM, all waves, and interacted models in Table A9 in the Appendix.Notes: February 2020 non-wage, unemployed, and out of labor force not shown. Bars represent 95% confidence intervals. CMM, COVID-19 MENA Monitor; MENA, Middle East and North Africa.

Figure 12

Predicted log hourly wages by wage quartile in February 2020, wave, and country.Source: Authors’ calculations based on CMM, all waves, and interacted models in Table A9 in the Appendix.Notes: Don’t know/refused/missing not shown. Bars represent 95% confidence intervals. CMM, COVID-19 MENA Monitor; MENA, Middle East and North Africa.
Predicted log hourly wages by wage quartile in February 2020, wave, and country.Source: Authors’ calculations based on CMM, all waves, and interacted models in Table A9 in the Appendix.Notes: Don’t know/refused/missing not shown. Bars represent 95% confidence intervals. CMM, COVID-19 MENA Monitor; MENA, Middle East and North Africa.

OLS models of log hourly wages, main effects

Jordan Morocco Sudan Tunisia Egypt
Wave (first wave omitted)
Feb. 2021 –0.145* (0.065) 0.057 (0.044)
April 2021 –0.274*** (0.061) –0.085* (0.042)
June 2021 0.151*** (0.036) 0.069 (0.062) –0.052 (0.043) 0.003 (0.040)
Aug. 2021 0.131*** (0.037) 0.172 (0.271)
Feb. 2020 labor market status (public wage omitted)
Non-wage –0.284 (0.172) –0.375*** (0.111) 2.985* (1.163) –0.241* (0.104) –0.084 (0.259)
Formal private wage –0.241*** (0.042) –0.247*** (0.059) 0.195 (0.424) –0.088 (0.046) –0.235*** (0.062)
Informal priv. wage in an est. –0.299*** (0.053) –0.451*** (0.086) –0.652 (0.456) –0.150* (0.069) –0.255*** (0.063)
Informal priv. wage outside est. –0.159* (0.065) –0.401*** (0.064) –0.084 (0.382) –0.169** (0.055) –0.021 (0.067)
Unemployed –0.379** (0.140) –0.647*** (0.122) 1.117 (1.129) –0.374*** (0.105) 1.340* (0.577)
Out of LF –0.499*** (0.121) –0.274 (0.164) 1.662 (1.862) –0.665*** (0.085) –0.248 (0.209)
Industry (services omitted)
Manufacturing and agriculture 0.107 (0.065) 0.176** (0.060) –0.323 (0.356) –0.134** (0.045) 0.073 (0.057)
Construction –0.029 (0.063) 0.158* (0.069) 0.510 (0.519) –0.170** (0.060) 0.078 (0.066)
Trade/retail –0.082 (0.053) 0.464*** (0.092) 0.939* (0.430) –0.237*** (0.066) –0.037 (0.071)
Accommodations/food –0.156* (0.073) 0.099 (0.080) 0.881 (0.583) –0.214** (0.076) –0.037 (0.087)
Sex (male omitted)
Female 0.198*** (0.040) –0.016 (0.054) –0.102 (0.343) –0.043 (0.037) 0.254*** (0.061)
Age group (years, 18–29 omitted)
30–49 0.127*** (0.034) 0.029 (0.049) 0.548 (0.301) –0.086* (0.039) 0.171*** (0.052)
50–64 0.206** (0.067) –0.018 (0.064) 1.247* (0.495) –0.019 (0.051) 0.379*** (0.069)
Education (basic or less omitted)
Secondary 0.024 (0.042) 0.216** (0.070) –0.905 (0.473) 0.225*** (0.042) 0.094 (0.052)
Higher education 0.434*** (0.039) 0.494*** (0.080) –0.021 (0.507) 0.502*** (0.046) 0.176** (0.060)
Feb. 2020 wage quartile (first quartile omitted)
Second 0.132** (0.046) 0.479*** (0.070) 0.484 (0.439) 0.130** (0.048) 0.388*** (0.061)
Third 0.446*** (0.047) 0.529*** (0.070) 0.884 (0.484) 0.317*** (0.049) 0.551*** (0.062)
Fourth 0.710*** (0.051) 0.946*** (0.066) 1.453** (0.474) 0.837*** (0.056) 0.874*** (0.068)
Don’t know/refused/missing 0.319** (0.104) 0.468*** (0.086) –0.975 (1.051) 0.439*** (0.060) 0.462*** (0.099)
N 2,052 1,415 148 2,353 1,238
Pseudo R2 0.368 0.326 0.295 0.369 0.256

Descriptive statistics on outcomes and covariates

Jordan Morocco Sudan Tunisia Egypt
Outcomes
Labor market status (at wave) (percentage)
Employed 40.1 48.8 45.7 54.1 53.3
Unemployed 27.4 22.7 32.7 25.3 20.8
Out of labor force 32.6 28.5 21.6 20.6 25.9
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Hours/week (mean) 42.6 42.7 30.3 39.6 41.9
Ln (hourly wage) (mean) 1.10 0.54 0.78 0.41 –0.17
Covariates (percentages)
Wave
Nov. 2020 24.7 24.6
Feb. 2021 33.4 24.7 25.5 49.9
April 2021 25.9 54.5 25.3
June 2021 32.8 24.7 24.7 50.1
Aug. 2021 33.7 45.5
Sex
Male 51.0 62.4 58.6 54.0 55.5
Female 49.0 37.6 41.4 46.0 44.5
Age group (years)
18–29 34.1 31.2 48.5 27.7 33.5
30–49 47.7 47.7 40.1 49.0 49.3
50–64 18.3 21.1 11.4 23.3 17.3
Education level
Basic or less 46.2 85.9 42.1 66.2 34.3
Secondary 21.3 8.7 33.2 16.5 41.8
Higher education 32.5 5.4 24.8 17.3 23.9
Feb. 2020 detailed labor market status
Non-wage 5.2 24.2 34.1 11.9 10.6
Public wage 15.4 8.1 6.5 14.5 14.8
Formal private wage 9.1 8.4 1.7 9.7 7.5
Informal priv. wage in an est. 6.0 3.0 1.3 3.4 11.2
Informal priv. wage outside est. 4.2 11.5 3.7 10.6 10.1
Unemployed 8.4 14.6 15.5 9.4 4.3
Out of LF 51.8 30.2 37.2 40.6 41.4
Feb. 2020 industry (Feb. 2020 employed only)
Manufacturing and agriculture 8.8 29.9 35.6 29.9 26.3
Construction 10.4 14.1 9.2 13.2 15.9
Trade/retail 18.0 14.1 22.8 13.2 13.9
Accommodations/food 5.7 8.0 2.0 5.3 6.5
Services 57.1 34.0 30.3 38.3 37.4
Feb. 2020 household income quartile (approximate)
First 24.9 45.6 14.7 23.1 33.3
Second 34.1 22.9 18.2 20.4 26.1
Third 19.2 5.3 19.5 23.7 21.8
Fourth 16.4 2.0 31.9 17.3 9.9
Don’t know/refused/missing 5.4 24.2 15.7 15.5 8.9
Feb. 2020 wage quartile (Feb. 2020 wage workers only)
First 24.6 28.4 23.4 22.4 22.2
Second 23.1 16.0 23.1 19.4 22.5
Third 23.2 15.4 20.3 21.0 23.8
Fourth 23.1 18.8 19.5 20.3 19.0
Don’t know/refused/missing 5.9 21.4 13.7 16.9 12.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
N (Observations) 7,625 8,120 4,401 8,143 4,007

Tobit model of hours of work per week, main effects

Jordan Morocco Sudan Tunisia Egypt
Wave (first wave omitted)
Feb. 2021 4.250*** (1.206) –2.017* (0.959)
April 2021 3.332** (1.167) 0.697 (0.953)
June 2021 –2.021* (0.977) –0.911 (1.205) 0.279 (0.959) –0.091 (1.030)
Aug. 2021 –2.600** (0.965) –4.060** (1.284)
Feb. 2020 labor market status (public wage omitted)
Non-wage –3.347* (1.694) 5.293*** (1.467) 5.912* (2.825) 0.956 (1.276) –3.872* (1.928)
Formal private wage 6.076*** (1.248) 4.332** (1.584) 2.971 (6.269) 0.947 (1.184) 5.785** (1.868)
Informal private wage in an establishment 4.299** (1.531) 7.912*** (2.218) 37.905*** (5.046) –3.118 (1.744) 3.138 (1.845)
Informal private wage outside an establishment –2.280 (1.751) 4.119* (1.615) 4.766 (3.457) –4.140** (1.339) –3.829* (1.936)
Unemployed 2.342 (1.863) –1.426 (1.801) –4.107 (3.222) –8.497*** (1.475) –10.381* (4.347)
OLF –6.410*** (1.484) –11.331*** (1.949) –8.406** (3.072) –8.542*** (1.192) –5.756** (2.225)
Industry (services omitted)
Manufacturing and agriculture –1.019 (1.763) –9.069*** (1.220) –7.248** (2.312) 2.811* (1.098) –1.380 (1.548)
Construction –10.276*** (1.655) –8.007*** (1.473) 2.507 (3.178) –3.870** (1.387) –5.229** (1.783)
Trade/retail 2.898* (1.410) –4.117** (1.523) –5.388* (2.607) –0.831 (1.378) 6.465*** (1.873)
Accommodations/food 5.383* (2.094) –0.952 (1.839) –4.896 (6.003) 0.042 (1.814) 6.745** (2.535)
Sex (male omitted)
Female –12.386*** (1.066) –6.673*** (1.155) –8.841*** (1.687) –4.997*** (0.806) –10.617*** (1.510)
Age group (years, 18–29 omitted)
30–49 –4.140*** (0.899) –2.230* (0.997) –3.187* (1.396) –1.968* (0.826) –4.490*** (1.293)
50–64 –4.019* (1.627) –1.028 (1.228) 6.485** (2.178) –6.767*** (1.048) –10.287*** (1.763)
Education (basic or less omitted)
Secondary 3.627** (1.141) –1.288 (1.608) –5.577*** (1.568) –1.810* (0.909) 1.344 (1.305)
Higher education –5.181*** (1.071) –4.395* (1.970) –5.425** (1.736) –5.469*** (1.028) –1.389 (1.564)
Feb. 2020 income (first quartile omitted)
Second 7.048*** (1.288) 1.421 (1.005) –3.225 (2.161) 4.259*** (1.134) 2.082 (1.500)
Third 4.100** (1.455) 2.154 (1.781) –2.150 (2.078) 7.603*** (1.113) 4.800** (1.530)
Fourth 6.279*** (1.537) –2.452 (2.783) 5.969** (2.042) 6.966*** (1.234) 5.395** (1.936)
Don’t know/refused/missing 11.446*** (2.498) –0.063 (1.186) 4.318 (2.497) 6.793*** (1.325) –1.132 (2.394)
N 3,182 3,849 1,484 4,590 2,148
Pseudo R2 .0164 .00503 .0168 .0088 .0118

Predicted outcomes by wave and country, pooled model

Prob. Emp. Prob. Unemp. Prob. OLF Hours/week Ln (hourly wage)
Jordan # Feb. 2021 0.370 (0.010) 0.260 (0.009) 0.369 (0.010) 44.497 (0.778) 1.012 (0.034)
Jordan # June 2021 0.406 (0.010) 0.270 (0.009) 0.324 (0.009) 42.167 (0.749) 1.139 (0.031)
Jordan # Aug. 2021 0.426 (0.010) 0.290 (0.009) 0.284 (0.009) 41.410 (0.727) 1.137 (0.031)
Morocco # Nov. 2020 0.428 (0.011) 0.233 (0.009) 0.339 (0.011) 41.777 (0.852) 0.603 (0.052)
Morocco # Feb. 2021 0.489 (0.011) 0.230 (0.009) 0.281 (0.010) 45.364 (0.783) 0.457 (0.048)
Morocco # April 2021 0.546 (0.011) 0.205 (0.009) 0.249 (0.009) 43.780 (0.709) 0.357 (0.040)
Morocco # June 2021 0.487 (0.011) 0.239 (0.010) 0.273 (0.010) 39.472 (0.762) 0.740 (0.042)
Sudan # April 2021 0.443 (0.010) 0.335 (0.010) 0.222 (0.008) 31.176 (0.789) 0.793 (0.138)
Sudan # Aug. 2021 0.473 (0.011) 0.318 (0.010) 0.209 (0.009) 29.430 (0.819) 0.773 (0.094)
Tunisia # Nov. 2020 0.502 (0.011) 0.306 (0.010) 0.192 (0.009) 40.156 (0.777) 0.452 (0.040)
Tunisia # Feb. 2021 0.542 (0.011) 0.253 (0.010) 0.205 (0.009) 37.861 (0.742) 0.484 (0.036)
Tunisia # April 2021 0.554 (0.011) 0.231 (0.009) 0.215 (0.009) 40.828 (0.722) 0.370 (0.034)
Tunisia # June 2021 0.565 (0.011) 0.222 (0.009) 0.213 (0.009) 39.573 (0.728) 0.361 (0.035)
Egypt # Feb. 2021 0.521 (0.011) 0.211 (0.009) 0.268 (0.010) 42.028 (0.752) –0.187 (0.034)
Egypt # June 2021 0.544 (0.011) 0.205 (0.009) 0.251 (0.010) 41.773 (0.745) –0.151 (0.034)
N (Obs.) 32,296 32,296 32,296 15,253 7,206

Tobit model of hours of work per week, model including wave interactions

Jordan Morocco Sudan Tunisia Egypt
Wave (first wave omitted)
Feb. 2021 –5.312 (4.954) –3.148 (4.522)
April 2021 2.702 (4.550) 7.710 (4.362)
June 2021 –5.621 (4.017) –2.676 (4.961) 5.693 (4.386) 3.315 (4.710)
Aug. 2021 –6.129 (3.939) –7.752 (6.989)
Feb. 2020 labor market status (public wage omitted)
Non-wage –13.658*** (2.897) 7.368* (3.284) 0.474 (3.925) –1.615 (2.510) 0.578 (2.716)
Formal private wage –1.439 (2.148) 11.340** (3.642) –3.890 (10.232) –2.662 (2.367) 3.378 (2.657)
Informal priv. wage in an est. 0.974 (2.683) 14.963*** (4.542) 15.121 (8.579) 2.007 (3.518) 5.499* (2.581)
Informal priv. wage outside est. –7.792** (2.975) 12.665*** (3.662) 8.123 (4.831) –5.634* (2.703) –1.715 (2.712)
Unemployed –1.211 (3.315) –9.418* (4.180) –5.335 (4.151) –12.795*** (3.117) –0.379 (6.424)
Out of LF –9.857*** (2.924) 6.924 (5.313) –8.501* (3.903) –2.573 (2.514) –3.644 (3.319)
Industry (services omitted)
Manufacturing and agriculture 0.378 (3.135) –16.213*** (2.605) 1.645 (3.281) 4.052 (2.151) –2.892 (2.219)
Construction –11.212*** (2.919) –13.619*** (3.038) 10.244* (4.213) –2.588 (2.799) –6.269* (2.432)
Trade/retail 3.346 (2.394) –19.427*** (3.025) 9.241* (3.732) –2.044 (2.753) 7.843** (2.593)
Accommodations/food 10.612** (3.675) –7.936* (3.833) –6.163 (7.360) 6.075 (3.887) 13.325*** (3.449)
Sex (male omitted)
Female –13.902*** (1.909) 0.903 (2.708) –10.250*** (2.306) –9.457*** (1.742) –15.752*** (2.205)
Age group (18–29 omitted)
30–49 –2.772 (1.593) –3.019 (2.095) –2.064 (1.947) 2.767 (1.740) –3.355 (1.815)
50–64 –4.884 (2.912) –3.491 (2.579) 3.766 (2.842) 3.789 (2.200) –10.736*** (2.441)
Education (basic or less omitted)
Secondary 3.338 (2.050) 1.378 (3.395) –5.671** (2.129) 3.192 (1.884) 0.570 (1.820)
Higher education –4.322* (1.969) –14.167** (4.865) –7.686*** (2.329) –3.062 (2.063) –1.594 (2.193)
Feb. 2020 income (first quartile omitted)
Second 9.618*** (2.321) –0.343 (2.229) –8.688** (2.799) 0.527 (2.649) 2.538 (2.084)
Third 2.089 (2.600) –5.847 (4.364) –4.758 (2.686) 7.159** (2.544) 5.446* (2.155)
Fourth 7.184** (2.708) –4.084 (10.879) 3.733 (2.771) 4.111 (2.832) 7.417** (2.800)
Don’t know/refused/missing 10.895** (4.090) –2.507 (2.407) 5.575 (3.230) 4.447 (2.417) 5.217 (3.386)
Wave and Feb. 2020 labor market status int.
Feb. 2021 # Non-wage 0.124 (4.498) 7.006* (3.495)
Feb. 2021 # Formal private wage –4.069 (4.863) 3.185 (3.316)
Feb. 2021 # Informal priv. wage in an est. –4.293 (6.201) –0.058 (5.062)
Feb. 2021 # Informal priv. wage outside est. –2.705 (5.028) 2.332 (3.738)
Feb. 2021 # Unemployed 15.112** (5.633) 13.039** (4.231)
Feb. 2021 # Out of LF –19.231** (6.762) –0.940 (3.533)
April 2021 # Non-wage –3.083 (4.201) 0.337 (3.576)
April 2021 # Formal private wage –9.110* (4.625) 2.524 (3.298)
April 2021 # Informal priv. wage in an est. –8.787 (6.210) –12.922** (4.908)
April 2021 # Informal priv. wage outside est. –12.005** (4.592) 0.774 (3.737)
April 2021 # Unemployed 5.352 (5.104) 2.544 (4.336)
April 2021 # Out of LF –20.483*** (6.166) –8.729* (3.432)
June 2021 # Non-wage 16.084*** (4.134) –3.703 (4.375) 2.706 (3.648) –8.927* (3.827)
June 2021 # Formal private wage 12.522*** (3.028) –13.440** (4.807) 9.314** (3.381) 4.968 (3.703)
June 2021 # Informal priv. wage in an est. 6.095 (3.675) –15.718* (6.719) –3.453 (4.807) –4.688 (3.661)
June 2021 # Informal priv. wage outside est. 12.222** (4.285) –17.199*** (4.842) 4.410 (3.871) –4.166 (3.844)
June 2021 # Unemployed 5.422 (4.801) 11.992* (5.607) 0.844 (4.176) –18.222* (8.642)
June 2021 # Out of LF 5.248 (3.816) –21.912*** (6.461) –10.797** (3.349) –3.918 (4.442)
Aug. 2021 # Non-wage 15.800*** (4.103) 4.803 (5.720)
Aug. 2021 # Formal private wage 9.979** (3.050) 4.468 (12.979)
Aug. 2021 # Informal priv. wage in an est. 3.803 (3.830) 27.511* (10.826)
Aug. 2021 # Informal priv. wage outside est. 5.089 (4.211) –11.352 (6.992)
Aug. 2021 # Unemployed 4.122 (4.427) 1.278 (6.456)
Aug. 2021 # Out of LF 4.807 (3.786) 1.104 (6.204)
Wave and Feb. 2020 industry int.
Feb. 2021 # Manufacturing and agriculture 9.584** (3.535) 1.196 (3.034)
Feb. 2021 # Construction 5.527 (4.216) –3.857 (3.910)
Feb. 2021 # Trade/retail 24.395*** (4.266) 2.695 (3.827)
Feb. 2021 # Accommodations/food 5.391 (5.329) –6.222 (5.264)
April 2021 # Manufacturing and agriculture 7.577* (3.437) 0.258 (3.035)
April 2021 # Construction 5.718 (4.266) 3.453 (3.836)
April 2021 # Trade/retail 14.316*** (4.151) 0.691 (3.832)
April 2021 # Accommodations/food 2.373 (5.304) –8.583 (5.145)
June 2021 # Manufacturing and agriculture 0.416 (4.401) 8.347* (3.584) –8.119** (3.127) 2.987 (3.066)
June 2021 # Construction 1.518 (4.091) 10.684** (4.139) –5.881 (3.973) 2.398 (3.539)
June 2021 # Trade/retail 0.690 (3.398) 23.278*** (4.372) 2.010 (3.954) –3.366 (3.712)
June 2021 # Accommodations/food –7.011 (5.091) 15.423** (5.302) –7.730 (5.314) –14.113** (5.032)
Aug. 2021 # Manufacturing and agriculture –4.617 (4.289) –13.328** (4.575)
Aug. 2021 # Construction –0.615 (4.010) –15.114* (6.524)
Aug. 2021 # Trade/retail –2.137 (3.442) –26.947*** (5.249)
Aug. 2021 # Accommodations/food –8.352 (5.139) 10.352 (12.382)
Wave and sex int.
Feb. 2021 # Female –2.650 (3.650) 5.040* (2.364)
April 2021 # Female –6.637* (3.353) 6.104** (2.351)
June 2021 # Female 0.856 (2.653) –14.262*** (3.519) 4.731* (2.307) 9.804** (3.001)
Aug. 2021 # Female 3.503 (2.602) 1.183 (3.363)
Wave and age int.
Feb. 2021 # 30–49 2.371 (2.890) –5.523* (2.403)
Feb. 2021 # 50–64 5.888 (3.485) –15.580*** (3.056)
April 2021 # 30–49 2.451 (2.770) –7.057** (2.338)
April 2021 # 50–64 1.303 (3.477) –13.699*** (2.970)
June 2021 # 30–49 –2.371 (2.211) –2.776 (2.954) –4.945* (2.383) –2.242 (2.565)
June 2021 # 50–64 –4.651 (4.057) 0.154 (3.644) –10.993*** (2.989) 0.579 (3.513)
Aug. 2021 # 30–49 –1.989 (2.203) 0.471 (2.817)
Aug. 2021 # 50–64 5.306 (3.951) 5.472 (4.447)
Wave and educ. int.
Feb. 2021 # Secondary –1.512 (4.682) –6.012* (2.632)
Feb. 2021 # Higher education 10.570 (6.453) –3.504 (2.939)
April 2021 # Secondary –3.702 (4.478) –5.065* (2.553)
April 2021 # Higher education 3.854 (6.078) –1.307 (2.870)
June 2021 # Secondary 4.189 (2.866) –7.445 (4.729) –7.566** (2.576) 1.422 (2.588)
June 2021 # Higher education –1.352 (2.720) 14.366* (6.003) –4.069 (2.866) –0.205 (3.105)
Aug. 2021 # Secondary –2.726 (2.763) 0.982 (3.136)
Aug. 2021 # Higher education –0.959 (2.613) 4.246 (3.479)
Wave and Feb. 2020 income int.
Feb. 2021 # Second 1.038 (3.025) 5.640 (3.442)
Feb. 2021 # Third 11.301* (5.759) 4.480 (3.413)
Feb. 2021 # Fourth –4.460 (12.299) 8.419* (3.767)
Feb. 2021 # Don’t know/refused/missing 0.139 (3.326) 4.183 (3.804)
April 2021 # Second –2.214 (2.852) 2.415 (3.437)
April 2021 # Third 10.096 (5.436) –1.928 (3.299)
April 2021 # Fourth –2.945 (12.066) 0.653 (3.665)
April 2021 # Don’t know/refused/missing 3.324 (3.332) 2.967 (3.931)
June 2021 # Second –4.829 (3.228) 8.106** (3.029) 6.920* (3.377) –0.615 (2.975)
June 2021 # Third 3.286 (3.669) 8.283 (5.412) –0.018 (3.258) –0.324 (3.040)
June 2021 # Fourth –2.492 (3.821) 11.746 (11.771) 1.933 (3.625) –3.205 (3.850)
June 2021 # Don’t know/refused/missing –1.512 (6.362) 6.634 (3.486) 4.312 (3.885) –11.614* (4.745)
Aug. 2021 # Second –1.989 (3.147) 16.392*** (4.389)
Aug. 2021 # Third 2.937 (3.513) 7.342 (4.214)
Aug. 2021 # Fourth 0.746 (3.731) 6.988 (4.156)
Aug. 2021 # Don’t know/refused/missing 4.859 (5.849) –4.091 (5.073)
Constant 47.683*** (2.890) 47.582*** (3.688) 39.858*** (4.390) 38.147*** (3.266) 43.726*** (3.348)
N (Obs.) 3,182 3,849 1,484 4,590 2,148
Pseudo R-sq. 0.019 0.010 0.023 0.012 0.014

Relative risk ratios from multinomial logit models for labor market status, main effects

Jordan Morocco Sudan Tunisia Egypt
Unemployed OLF Unemployed OLF Unemployed OLF Unemployed OLF Unemployed OLF
Wave (first wave omitted)
Feb. 2021 0.769** (0.068) 0.546*** (0.054) 0.773** (0.074) 1.105 (0.129)
April 2021 0.604*** (0.054) 0.419*** (0.042) 0.667*** (0.065) 1.077 (0.125)
June 2021 0.780** (0.073) 0.612*** (0.061) 0.807* (0.072) 0.575*** (0.057) 0.610*** (0.060) 0.979 (0.114) 0.828 (0.088) 0.767* (0.088)
Aug. 2021 0.758** (0.070) 0.463*** (0.046) 0.852* (0.064) 0.882 (0.077)
Feb. 2020 labor market status (public wage omitted)
Non-wage 7.103*** (1.819) 4.352*** (1.227) 2.589*** (0.431) 1.393 (0.263) 1.977*** (0.362) 0.484*** (0.101) 2.723*** (0.585) 2.799** (0.898) 4.665*** (1.533) 2.206 (0.915)
Formal private wage 5.424*** (1.243) 1.660* (0.424) 1.758** (0.328) 0.620* (0.150) 6.105*** (1.874) 0.778 (0.439) 2.351*** (0.501) 1.446 (0.485) 4.695*** (1.595) 2.189 (0.956)
Informal private wage in an establishment 9.777*** (2.299) 1.773 (0.553) 2.379*** (0.525) 0.670 (0.225) 0.731 (0.258) 0.217** (0.108) 3.839*** (0.931) 1.417 (0.686) 7.298*** (2.236) 2.737** (1.039)
Informal private wage outside an establishment 10.736*** (2.688) 1.869 (0.665) 3.026*** (0.517) 1.907*** (0.372) 0.661 (0.173) 0.147*** (0.062) 4.284*** (0.899) 2.517** (0.845) 6.473*** (2.069) 3.931*** (1.519)
Unemployed 54.708*** (12.047) 17.370*** (3.531) 12.748*** (2.137) 7.703*** (1.456) 1.680** (0.303) 0.978 (0.203) 19.826*** (3.678) 4.495*** (1.178) 125.942*** (42.860) 22.199*** (9.027)
OLF 103.298*** (21.187) 71.571*** (12.496) 11.898*** (2.025) 45.723*** (8.204) 1.433* (0.247) 1.565* (0.297) 28.960*** (5.043) 56.765*** (11.953) 54.734*** (15.277) 94.505*** (25.714)
Industry (services omitted)
Manufacturing and agriculture 2.017*** (0.386) 0.468 (0.188) 1.239 (0.139) 1.883*** (0.284) 0.271*** (0.042) 0.869 (0.181) 1.132 (0.185) 0.428** (0.121) 1.013 (0.236) 0.721 (0.245)
Construction 1.584* (0.312) 0.527 (0.181) 1.271 (0.172) 1.547* (0.300) 0.511*** (0.103) 0.782 (0.262) 1.827** (0.342) 0.629 (0.230) 2.664*** (0.631) 1.292 (0.494)
Trade/retail 1.240 (0.206) 0.519* (0.143) 1.148 (0.156) 1.565* (0.285) 0.732* (0.112) 1.866** (0.394) 1.945*** (0.361) 0.400* (0.156) 1.016 (0.277) 1.182 (0.443)
Accommodations/food 1.906** (0.429) 0.899 (0.358) 1.571** (0.248) 2.435*** (0.471) 1.308 (0.450) 0.506 (0.419) 1.318 (0.320) 0.712 (0.328) 2.455** (0.708) 0.970 (0.505)
Sex (male omitted)
Female 2.683*** (0.241) 4.363*** (0.415) 2.568*** (0.197) 4.125*** (0.339) 2.234*** (0.202) 3.408*** (0.359) 2.910*** (0.219) 3.775*** (0.349) 4.988*** (0.659) 6.643*** (0.926)
Age group (years, 18–29 omitted)
30–49 1.028 (0.087) 1.129 (0.106) 0.666*** (0.048) 0.996 (0.086) 1.071 (0.088) 0.843 (0.083) 0.797** (0.064) 0.823 (0.084) 1.341* (0.166) 1.136 (0.154)
50–64 2.159*** (0.274) 5.609*** (0.725) 0.572*** (0.055) 1.766*** (0.177) 0.987 (0.134) 1.751*** (0.255) 1.063 (0.108) 2.598*** (0.297) 1.534* (0.277) 3.328*** (0.587)
Education (basic or less omitted)
Secondary 1.022 (0.107) 0.803* (0.089) 0.836 (0.103) 1.084 (0.139) 1.161 (0.106) 0.851 (0.089) 0.997 (0.096) 0.914 (0.104) 1.106 (0.142) 0.687** (0.094)
Higher education 1.078 (0.109) 0.435*** (0.048) 0.654** (0.104) 0.650* (0.113) 0.932 (0.093) 0.468*** (0.057) 1.697*** (0.191) 1.193 (0.158) 0.824 (0.134) 0.454*** (0.078)
Feb. 2020 income (first quartile omitted)
Second 0.873 (0.088) 0.911 (0.099) 0.844* (0.069) 0.946 (0.090) 0.807 (0.102) 1.371* (0.221) 0.505*** (0.049) 0.779* (0.090) 0.723* (0.102) 1.271 (0.191)
Third 0.785 (0.098) 1.170 (0.159) 0.658* (0.110) 0.793 (0.152) 0.592*** (0.076) 1.433* (0.225) 0.440*** (0.044) 0.783* (0.094) 0.674* (0.108) 1.145 (0.203)
Fourth 0.628*** (0.086) 1.197 (0.177) 0.990 (0.239) 0.985 (0.273) 0.857 (0.102) 1.840*** (0.275) 0.170*** (0.023) 0.533*** (0.077) 0.809 (0.176) 1.562 (0.371)
Don’t know/refused/missing 0.976 (0.181) 1.557* (0.302) 1.038 (0.084) 1.410*** (0.123) 0.920 (0.124) 2.591*** (0.413) 0.658*** (0.074) 1.251 (0.165) 1.473 (0.295) 2.426*** (0.510)
N 7,625 8,120 4,401 8,143 4,007
Pseudo R-sq. 0.338 0.257 0.096 0.325 0.381

Variables, categories, and original questions and responses

Categories Full Question Full Responses Notes
Outcomes
Labor Market Status EmployedUnemployedOut of the labor force (OLF) In the past 7 days, did you spend at least 1 h working? Please consider day labor, work for wages or in-kind, and working on your own account or your own business, including an agricultural business (farm). YesNo Employed if yes
Were you attached to a job in the past 7 days but were temporarily absent from it? YesNo Employed if yes
In the past 7 days, were you wanting, willing, and available to work? YesNo Only asked if not employed.Unemployed if responded yes, out of labor force if response was no.
Hours/week In the past 7 days, how many hours did you work?
Ln (hourly wage) In the past month, what was your personal net monthly wage (including overtime, bonuses)? Monthly wages transformed into hourly terms using hours per week reported from individuals who worked ≥1 h in the 7 days preceding the interview. Translated into US dollars based on exchange rates on January 1, 2021. Used in log form in models.
Covariates
Wave “Wave 1” 11/20“Wave 2” 2/21“Wave 3” 4/21“Wave 4” 6/21“Wave 5” 8/21 Categorized into a month based on the majority of fielding for that wave.
February 2020 labor market status Non-wage workersPublic sector wage workersFormal private sector wage workersInformal private sector wage workers in an establishmentInformal private sector wage workers outside an establishmentUnemployed (broad definition)Out of the labor force (OLF) What was your main job/activity as of the end of February 2020 (before the 19-COVID Pandemic)? Wage worker for private sector/NGOWage worker for government/public sectorFarmer (owns a farm/self-employed on a farm)Business owner/self-employed (but not a farmer)Unpaid family worker on a farmUnpaid family worker (but not a farmer)HousewifeFull time studentRetiredOther, not employed, and not looking for work (e.g., taking care of family members)Unemployed and looking for work Recoded farmer, business owner/self-employed, unpaid family worker on a farm, unpaid family worker (but not farmer) as non-wage worker. Wage worker for private sector/NGO with social insurance recoded as formal private wageWage worker for private sector/NGO without social insurance in an establishment recoded as informal private wage in an establishmentWage worker for private sector/NGO without social insurance outside an establishment recoded as informal private wage outside an establishmentHousewife, full time student, other not employed and not looking for work, and retired recoded as out of the labor force
As of end of February 2020 (before the 19-COVID pandemic), did you have social insurance? YesNo
As of end of February 2020 (before the 19-COVID pandemic), did you work inside an establishment? YesNo
Industry Manufacturing and agricultureConstructionTrade/retailAccommodation/food Services Which activity best describes your main job/activity as of the end of February 2020? Agriculture, fishing or miningManufacturingConstruction or utilitiesRetail or wholesaleTransportation and storageAccommodation and food servicesInformation and communicationFinancial activities or real estate Education HealthOther services Only asked of wage workers.Farmer, unpaid family worker on a farm, agriculture, fishing or mining, and manufacturing recoded as manufacturing and agricultureRetail or wholesale recoded as trade/retailTransportation and storage, information and communication, financial activities or real estate, education, health and other services, or unpaid family wage work (but not a farmer) recoded as services
What was your main job/activity as of the end of February 2020 (before the COVID-19 pandemic)? Wage worker for private sector/NGOWage worker for government/public sectorFarmer (owns a farm/self-employed on a farm)Business owner/self-employed (but not a farmer)Unpaid family worker on a farmUnpaid family worker (but not a farmer)HousewifeFull time studentRetiredOther, not employed, and not looking for work (e.g., taking care of family members)Unemployed and looking for work
Education level Basic or lessSecondaryHigher education What is the highest level of education you have completed? Less than basicBasicSecondaryHigher education Less than basic and basic recoded at basic or less
Sex MaleFemale
Age group (years) 18–2930–4950–64 What is your age, in years? Age integer recoded into categories
February 2020 household income quartiles FirstSecondThirdFourthDon’t know/refused/missing In February 2020 (before the 19-COVID pandemic), what was your household's total monthly income (from all sources and including your income)? Categories were country-specific, roughly quartiles, given in local currency.
February 2020 wage quartile FirstSecondThirdFourthDon’t know/refused/missing In February 2020 (before the 19-COVID Pandemic), what was your personal net monthly wage (including overtime, bonuses)? Continuous responses were recoded into country-specific wage quartiles.

OLS models of log hourly wages, models with wave interactions

Jordan Morocco Sudan Tunisia Egypt
Wave (first wave omitted)
Feb. 2021 –0.486* (0.230) 0.099 (0.184)
April 2021 –0.544** (0.198) –0.158 (0.170)
June 2021 0.306* (0.122) –0.110 (0.221) –0.436* (0.171) 0.125 (0.181)
Aug. 2021 0.405** (0.124) 1.528 (1.336)
Feb. 2020 labor market status (public wage omitted)
Non-wage –0.227 (0.252) –0.071 (0.201) 4.598*** (1.319) –0.368 (0.195) –0.004 (0.274)
Formal private wage –0.042 (0.071) –0.539*** (0.129) –0.583 (0.624) 0.214* (0.089) –0.157 (0.088)
Informal priv. wage in an est. –0.304*** (0.090) –0.604*** (0.161) –2.403*** (0.661) –0.164 (0.140) –0.283** (0.087)
Informal priv. wage outside est. –0.093 (0.101) –0.745*** (0.139) –0.882 (0.658) 0.027 (0.112) –0.037 (0.092)
Unemployed 0.074 (0.209) –0.600** (0.219) 2.140 (1.241) 0.143 (0.181) 1.455* (0.585)
Out of LF –0.392* (0.184) –0.078 (0.281) 2.958 (1.797) –0.386* (0.152) –0.143 (0.228)
Industry (services omitted)
Manufacturing and agriculture 0.088 (0.125) 0.566*** (0.142) 1.246 (0.631) –0.300*** (0.084) 0.058 (0.081)
Construction 0.193 (0.102) 0.217 (0.139) –0.319 (2.319) –0.639*** (0.128) 0.072 (0.087)
Trade/retail –0.064 (0.088) 0.653*** (0.186) 1.161* (0.571) –0.247 (0.144) –0.094 (0.101)
Accommodations/food –0.350** (0.136) –0.063 (0.181) 0.567 (0.903) –0.596*** (0.165) –0.218 (0.121)
Sex (male omitted)
Female 0.133 (0.072) –0.152 (0.133) 0.717 (0.569) 0.062 (0.088) 0.335*** (0.095)
Age group (years, 18–29 omitted)
30–49 0.234*** (0.060) –0.040 (0.111) –0.600 (0.643) –0.215* (0.089) 0.211** (0.072)
50–64 0.179 (0.125) –0.230 (0.136) 0.129 (0.801) –0.353** (0.112) 0.453*** (0.092)
Education (basic or less omitted)
Secondary 0.109 (0.076) 0.020 (0.149) 0.980 (0.906) –0.064 (0.093) 0.166* (0.073)
Higher education 0.428*** (0.073) 0.722*** (0.213) 2.252* (0.909) 0.143 (0.109) 0.187* (0.085)
Feb. 2020 wage quartile (first quartile omitted)
Second 0.136 (0.077) 0.334* (0.133) 0.922 (0.900) 0.294** (0.097) 0.317*** (0.085)
Third 0.375*** (0.080) 0.690*** (0.171) 1.430 (0.852) 0.383*** (0.095) 0.561*** (0.086)
Fourth 0.753*** (0.087) 1.063*** (0.133) 1.018 (0.846) 1.277*** (0.114) 0.861*** (0.097)
Don’t know/refused/missing 0.720*** (0.196) 0.188 (0.356) 3.022 (1.998) 0.158 (0.186) 0.557*** (0.146)
Wave and Feb. 2020 labor market status int.
Feb. 2021 # Non-wage –0.012 (0.294) –0.151 (0.265)
Feb. 2021 # Formal private wage 0.431* (0.183) –0.418** (0.130)
Feb. 2021 # Informal priv. wage in an est. 0.162 (0.245) –0.271 (0.201)
Feb. 2021 # Informal priv. wage outside est. 0.398 (0.210) –0.527*** (0.155)
Feb. 2021 # Unemployed 0.312 (0.325) –1.140*** (0.272)
Feb. 2021 # Out of LF –0.817 (0.660) –0.586** (0.216)
April 2021 # Non-wage –0.818** (0.282) 0.336 (0.267)
April 2021 # Formal private wage 0.435* (0.170) –0.431*** (0.127)
April 2021 # Informal priv. wage in an est. 0.035 (0.227) 0.132 (0.194)
April 2021 # Informal priv. wage outside est. 0.354* (0.180) –0.273 (0.154)
April 2021 # Unemployed –0.577 (0.306) –0.410 (0.252)
April 2021 # Out of LF –0.590 (0.369) –0.206 (0.210)
June 2021 # Non-wage 0.225 (0.363)
June 2021 # Formal private wage –0.317** (0.100) 0.259 (0.184) –0.394** (0.131) –0.181 (0.124)
June 2021 # Informal priv. wage in an est. –0.080 (0.127) 0.182 (0.291) 0.125 (0.191) 0.041 (0.126)
June 2021 # Informal priv. wage outside est. –0.146 (0.151) 0.409* (0.194) –0.023 (0.159) 0.014 (0.136)
June 2021 # Unemployed –0.680* (0.300)
June 2021 # Out of LF 0.000 (0.266)
Aug. 2021 # Formal private wage –0.257* (0.102) 1.311 (0.903)
Aug. 2021 # Informal priv. wage in an est. 0.056 (0.132) 3.723*** (0.935)
Aug. 2021 # Informal priv. wage outside est. –0.073 (0.161) 1.598 (0.833)
Wave and Feb. 2020 industry int.
Feb. 2021 # Manufacturing and agriculture –0.428* (0.184) 0.050 (0.122)
Feb. 2021 # Construction –0.200 (0.217) 0.620*** (0.173)
Feb. 2021 # Trade/retail –0.422 (0.262) 0.001 (0.188)
Feb. 2021 # Accommodations/food 0.549* (0.249) 0.411 (0.219)
April 2021 # Manufacturing and agriculture –0.715*** (0.180) 0.274* (0.122)
April 2021 # Construction –0.195 (0.200) 0.502** (0.171)
April 2021 # Trade/retail –0.225 (0.259) 0.092 (0.191)
April 2021 # Accommodations/food 0.141 (0.239) 0.669** (0.217)
June 2021 # Manufacturing and agriculture –0.008 (0.168) –0.206 (0.189) 0.419*** (0.124) 0.036 (0.113)
June 2021 # Construction –0.402** (0.152) 0.008 (0.191) 0.702*** (0.175) 0.015 (0.134)
June 2021 # Trade/retail 0.009 (0.126) –0.186 (0.260) 0.077 (0.199) 0.121 (0.143)
June 2021 # Accommodations/food 0.267 (0.181) 0.096 (0.250) 0.498* (0.228) 0.383* (0.175)
Aug. 2021 # Manufacturing and agriculture 0.043 (0.162) –2.494** (0.818)
Aug. 2021 # Construction –0.295* (0.150) 0.950 (2.401)
Aug. 2021 # Trade/retail –0.098 (0.131) –0.371 (0.845)
Aug. 2021 # Accommodations/food 0.309 (0.182) –1.245 (1.331)
Wave and sex int.
Feb. 2021 # Female 0.344 (0.189) –0.081 (0.116)
April 2021 # Female 0.143 (0.160) –0.241* (0.111)
June 2021 # Female 0.147 (0.098) –0.059 (0.177) 0.013 (0.112) –0.166 (0.125)
Aug. 2021 # Female 0.049 (0.099) –0.392 (0.718)
Wave and age int.
Feb. 2021 # 30–49 0.166 (0.152) 0.147 (0.119)
Feb. 2021 # 50–64 0.063 (0.201) 0.390* (0.155)
April 2021 # 30–49 0.063 (0.148) 0.135 (0.114)
April 2021 # 50–64 0.167 (0.185) 0.419** (0.144)
June 2021 # 30–49 –0.053 (0.083) –0.027 (0.146) 0.303* (0.119) –0.089 (0.104)
June 2021 # 50–64 0.291 (0.172) 0.447* (0.184) 0.504*** (0.152) –0.158 (0.139)
Aug. 2021 # 30–49 –0.269** (0.084) 2.261** (0.747)
Aug. 2021 # 50–64 –0.135 (0.163) 2.494* (1.032)
Wave and educ. int.
Feb. 2021 # Secondary 0.377 (0.199) 0.300* (0.127)
Feb. 2021 # Higher education –0.300 (0.278) 0.450** (0.145)
April 2021 # Secondary 0.157 (0.198) 0.277* (0.120)
April 2021 # Higher education –0.112 (0.261) 0.445** (0.138)
June 2021 # Secondary –0.245* (0.106) 0.117 (0.223) 0.462*** (0.124) –0.146 (0.105)
June 2021 # Higher education 0.084 (0.098) –0.378 (0.257) 0.442** (0.138) –0.003 (0.120)
Aug. 2021 # Secondary –0.013 (0.103) –3.257** (1.050)
Aug. 2021 # Higher education –0.073 (0.097) –4.093*** (1.091)
Wave and Feb. 2020 wage int.
Feb. 2021 # Second 0.357 (0.217) –0.026 (0.140)
Feb. 2021 # Third –0.311 (0.225) –0.115 (0.141)
Feb. 2021 # Fourth –0.113 (0.192) –0.651*** (0.161)
Feb. 2021 # Don’t know/refused/missing 0.052 (0.396) 0.365 (0.216)
April 2021 # Second 0.341 (0.186) –0.207 (0.135)
April 2021 # Third –0.013 (0.215) 0.004 (0.133)
April 2021 # Fourth –0.087 (0.186) –0.647*** (0.155)
April 2021 # Don’t know/refused/missing 0.778* (0.388) 0.240 (0.215)
June 2021 # Second –0.096 (0.110) 0.062 (0.205) –0.333* (0.134) 0.137 (0.123)
June 2021 # Third 0.002 (0.113) –0.333 (0.224) –0.062 (0.134) –0.042 (0.124)
June 2021 # Fourth –0.082 (0.125) –0.085 (0.196) –0.392* (0.158) 0.007 (0.138)
June 2021 # Don’t know/refused/missing –0.456 (0.264) 0.201 (0.394) 0.111 (0.221) –0.210 (0.200)
Aug. 2021 # Second 0.038 (0.112) 0.305 (1.030)
Aug. 2021 # Third 0.166 (0.116) 0.128 (1.061)
Aug. 2021 # Fourth –0.075 (0.124) 0.746 (1.053)
Aug. 2021 # Don’t know/refused/missing –0.749** (0.257) –4.700* (2.302)
Constant 0.359*** (0.089) 0.448** (0.151) –1.435 (1.163) 0.258* (0.122) –0.900*** (0.125)
N (Obs.) 2,052 1,415 148 2,353 1,238
R2 0.400 0.382 0.520 0.413 0.269

Relative risk ratios from multinomial logit models for labor market status, including wave interactions

Jordan Morocco Sudan Tunisia Egypt
Unemployed OLF Unemployed OLF Unemployed OLF Unemployed OLF Unemployed OLF
Wave (first wave omitted)
Feb. 2021 0.396* (0.164) 0.586 (0.290) 2.060 (1.089) 0.392 (0.308)
April 2021 0.099*** (0.050) 0.043*** (0.028) 0.277* (0.178) 0.370 (0.274)
June 2021 0.468 (0.258) 0.253* (0.146) 0.002* (0.005) 0.254* (0.146) 0.249* (0.168) 0.894 (0.602) 0.218* (0.159) 0.649 (0.451)
Aug. 2021 0.457 (0.280) 0.474 (0.236) 0.583 (0.254) 0.108*** (0.063)
Feb. 2020 labor market status (public wage omitted)
Non-wage 5.270*** (2.307) 3.220** (1.459) 0.925 (0.258) 0.907 (0.334) 0.999 (0.253) 0.352*** (0.099) 1.197 (0.426) 1.083 (0.797) 1.671 (0.734) 1.642 (1.054)
Formal private wage 5.725*** (2.169) 1.319 (0.526) 0.563 (0.194) 0.627 (0.275) 1.661 (0.955) 0.789 (0.542) 1.843 (0.609) 0.260 (0.296) 2.341 (1.063) 0.738 (0.716)
Informal priv. wage in an est. 8.222*** (3.279) 1.372 (0.691) 1.693 (0.553) 0.328 (0.221) 2.582 (1.281) 0.000 (0.000) 4.097*** (1.607) 0.449 (0.677) 3.466** (1.366) 3.534* (1.951)
Informal priv. wage outside est. 8.854*** (3.695) 1.803 (0.924) 1.289 (0.367) 1.326 (0.501) 0.567 (0.196) 0.162*** (0.079) 2.583** (0.877) 2.277 (1.550) 4.355*** (1.755) 6.300*** (3.471)
Unemployed 53.827*** (20.207) 15.770*** (5.159) 3.451*** (0.978) 5.785*** (1.981) 1.960** (0.448) 0.403*** (0.106) 24.176*** (7.215) 2.238 (1.322) 92.868*** (41.317) 9.382** (7.168)
Out of LF 133.747*** (47.061) 93.179*** (26.151) 6.694*** (2.168) 53.653*** (19.090) 1.438 (0.315) 0.667 (0.155) 28.442*** (7.789) 60.612*** (22.574) 41.318*** (14.239) 143.351*** (60.104)
Industry (services omitted)
Manufacturing and agriculture 1.366 (0.497) 0.512 (0.321) 1.747** (0.358) 1.500 (0.421) 0.846 (0.187) 0.706 (0.198) 0.980 (0.289) 0.593 (0.383) 1.206 (0.399) 0.490 (0.262)
Construction 1.791 (0.609) 0.395 (0.251) 1.333 (0.331) 1.042 (0.382) 1.101 (0.299) 0.725 (0.302) 1.392 (0.491) 0.234 (0.268) 1.969 (0.689) 1.173 (0.628)
Trade/retail 1.359 (0.373) 0.622 (0.261) 0.520* (0.152) 0.194** (0.110) 1.248 (0.293) 1.494 (0.440) 3.042*** (0.971) 0.562 (0.503) 1.163 (0.459) 1.254 (0.680)
Accommodations/food 2.221* (0.810) 1.762 (0.902) 0.879 (0.275) 0.851 (0.351) 0.307 (0.240) 0.344 (0.298) 2.204 (0.912) 0.352 (0.591) 2.845* (1.159) 2.316 (1.378)
Sex (male omitted)
Female 2.125*** (0.353) 3.621*** (0.616) 2.961*** (0.499) 4.492*** (0.808) 2.229*** (0.278) 4.258*** (0.632) 1.801*** (0.265) 2.337*** (0.440) 4.927*** (0.962) 6.137*** (1.278)
Age group (18–29 omitted)
30–49 0.864 (0.131) 1.084 (0.179) 0.728* (0.103) 1.099 (0.193) 1.070 (0.118) 0.692** (0.092) 1.202 (0.194) 1.108 (0.237) 1.448* (0.266) 1.089 (0.218)
50–64 1.768* (0.416) 3.878*** (0.923) 0.534** (0.104) 1.907** (0.401) 0.889 (0.150) 0.755 (0.153) 1.515* (0.312) 2.397*** (0.595) 1.203 (0.319) 2.805*** (0.722)
Education (basic or less omitted)
Secondary 0.884 (0.171) 0.767 (0.154) 0.577* (0.148) 0.660 (0.184) 0.785* (0.097) 0.713* (0.099) 0.941 (0.176) 0.972 (0.227) 1.459* (0.277) 0.749 (0.153)
Higher education 1.053 (0.198) 0.434*** (0.086) 0.651 (0.226) 0.572 (0.218) 0.894 (0.118) 0.323*** (0.054) 1.566* (0.326) 1.744* (0.457) 0.705 (0.170) 0.405*** (0.103)
Feb. 2020 income (first quartile omitted)
Second 0.856 (0.160) 0.803 (0.158) 0.549*** (0.095) 0.556** (0.118) 0.834 (0.131) 1.906** (0.410) 0.714 (0.158) 0.727 (0.204) 0.572** (0.117) 0.878 (0.193)
Third 0.678 (0.158) 1.045 (0.257) 0.459* (0.176) 0.242** (0.130) 0.614** (0.100) 2.007*** (0.420) 0.383*** (0.089) 0.551* (0.158) 0.588* (0.139) 0.976 (0.259)
Fourth 0.561* (0.142) 1.112 (0.292) 2.040 (1.351) 1.114 (1.050) 0.884 (0.138) 3.134*** (0.637) 0.309*** (0.090) 0.704 (0.236) 0.756 (0.244) 1.467 (0.518)
Don’t know/refused/missing 0.623 (0.201) 0.945 (0.314) 0.978 (0.150) 1.100 (0.189) 0.922 (0.155) 3.879*** (0.826) 0.728 (0.142) 0.782 (0.185) 1.496 (0.456) 3.007*** (0.964)
Wave and Feb. 2020 labor market status int.
Feb. 2021 # Non-wage 1.071 (0.442) 0.556 (0.271) 2.211 (1.222) 2.273 (2.454)
Feb. 2021 # Formal private wage 0.942 (0.471) 0.473 (0.285) 1.256 (0.665) 11.406 (15.546)
Feb. 2021 # Informal priv. wage in an est. 0.384 (0.218) 0.331 (0.368) 0.689 (0.441) 6.153 (11.197)
Feb. 2021 # Informal priv. wage outside est. 1.067 (0.472) 0.900 (0.455) 1.480 (0.792) 0.851 (0.934)
Feb. 2021 # Unemployed 2.315* (0.977) 0.318* (0.163) 0.454 (0.211) 3.755 (3.216)
Feb. 2021 # Out of LF 1.066 (0.489) 0.387 (0.191) 0.730 (0.316) 2.021 (1.339)
April 2021 # Non-wage 6.568*** (3.360) 14.799*** (9.519) 2.487 (1.706) 3.744 (3.695)
April 2021 # Formal private wage 10.724*** (6.037) 2.187 (1.828) 0.552 (0.403) 4.700 (6.420)
April 2021 # Informal priv. wage in an est. 1.465 (1.046) 16.359** (16.014) 1.099 (0.794) 5.270 (9.118)
April 2021 # Informal priv. wage outside est. 4.216** (2.198) 7.946** (5.232) 1.683 (1.130) 1.190 (1.154)
April 2021 # Unemployed 7.593*** (3.871) 3.504 (2.260) 1.804 (1.053) 6.021* (4.813)
April 2021 # Out of LF 4.439** (2.354) 3.586* (2.236) 1.866 (1.025) 1.270 (0.768)
June 2021 # Non-wage 0.866 (0.535) 3.641 (2.518) 648.087* (2,127.191) 1.342 (0.795) 6.913** (4.870) 4.463 (4.183) 9.826** (7.193) 1.970 (1.666)
June 2021 # Formal private wage 0.754 (0.399) 2.666 (1.733) 592.198 (1,949.768) 0.890 (0.645) 3.755 (2.574) 8.428 (10.717) 5.237* (3.927) 4.831 (5.328)
June 2021 # Informal priv. wage in an est. 0.713 (0.397) 1.435 (1.213) 131.888 (437.864) 4.302 (4.157) 1.786 (1.381) 1.653 (3.122) 6.206** (4.276) 0.613 (0.478)
June 2021 # Informal priv. wage outside est. 0.909 (0.538) 2.033 (1.748) 471.054 (1,546.759) 0.923 (0.568) 5.469* (3.759) 1.728 (1.578) 2.889 (2.066) 0.440 (0.351)
June 2021 # Unemployed 1.239 (0.642) 2.389 (1.314) 1,041.680* (3,418.862) 3.398* (1.906) 1.260 (0.798) 0.653 (0.538) 2.959 (2.227) 3.713 (3.437)
June 2021 # Out of LF 0.537 (0.256) 1.171 (0.568) 222.157 (729.929) 0.903 (0.504) 1.774 (1.076) 0.542 (0.293) 2.734 (1.750) 0.513 (0.286)
Aug. 2021 # Non-wage 2.986 (1.985) 0.527 (0.408) 3.506** (1.359) 2.726* (1.254)
Aug. 2021 # Formal private wage 1.273 (0.776) 0.918 (0.568) 7.479** (5.406) 0.299 (0.746)
Aug. 2021 # Informal priv. wage in an est. 2.498 (1.547) 1.539 (1.101) 0.045** (0.043) 4004994.921 (2.502e+09)
Aug. 2021 # Informal priv. wage outside est. 2.219 (1.443) 0.536 (0.512) 1.278 (0.703) 0.422 (0.487)
Aug. 2021 # Unemployed 1.046 (0.614) 0.703 (0.328) 0.694 (0.266) 14.448*** (7.531)
Aug. 2021 # Out of LF 1.093 (0.608) 0.489 (0.194) 0.932 (0.339) 14.694*** (7.186)
Wave and Feb. 2020 industry int.
Feb. 2021 # Manufacturing and agriculture 0.873 (0.274) 2.049 (0.845) 0.803 (0.351) 1.615 (1.434)
Feb. 2021 # Construction 1.169 (0.455) 3.947** (2.002) 1.023 (0.517) 1.381 (2.350)
Feb. 2021 # Trade/retail 2.202 (0.939) 18.794*** (12.425) 0.484 (0.235) 2.368 (2.747)
Feb. 2021 # Accommodations/food 0.399 (0.242) 1.675 (1.011) 0.528 (0.329) 2.397 (4.921)
April 2021 # Manufacturing and agriculture 0.518* (0.171) 1.052 (0.436) 2.354 (1.235) 0.580 (0.524)
April 2021 # Construction 1.277 (0.490) 0.831 (0.478) 3.559* (2.131) 8.320 (10.714)
April 2021 # Trade/retail 3.273** (1.299) 3.384 (2.392) 1.220 (0.700) 0.991 (1.144)
April 2021 # Accommodations/food 3.907** (1.715) 5.653** (3.043) 0.468 (0.380) 6.838 (12.348)
June 2021 # Manufacturing and agriculture 2.381 (1.177) 1.078 (0.985) 0.501* (0.163) 1.329 (0.618) 1.074 (0.471) 0.362 (0.296) 0.737 (0.348) 1.996 (1.379)
June 2021 # Construction 1.258 (0.607) 2.157 (1.754) 0.930 (0.351) 0.886 (0.602) 1.330 (0.676) 1.391 (1.857) 1.853 (0.894) 1.080 (0.840)
June 2021 # Trade/retail 0.953 (0.400) 0.626 (0.413) 3.448** (1.358) 23.490*** (15.868) 0.340* (0.176) 0.084 (0.127) 0.848 (0.467) 0.927 (0.699)
June 2021 # Accommodations/food 0.660 (0.393) 0.086 (0.141) 3.504** (1.553) 4.628* (2.799) 0.508 (0.333) 0.076 (0.240) 0.712 (0.418) 0.050 (0.086)
Aug. 2021 # Manufacturing and agriculture 1.321 (0.636) 0.686 (0.733) 0.078*** (0.027) 2.274 (1.133)
Aug. 2021 # Construction 0.585 (0.285) 0.683 (0.750) 0.237** (0.105) 1.278 (1.015)
Aug. 2021 # Trade/retail 0.819 (0.324) 1.088 (0.745) 0.397** (0.129) 3.617** (1.789)
Aug. 2021 # Accommodations/food 0.905 (0.473) 0.389 (0.382) 12.453** (11.645) 1.361 (4.889)
Wave and sex int.
Feb. 2021 # Female 0.911 (0.212) 1.015 (0.251) 1.786** (0.377) 1.845* (0.496)
April 2021 # Female 0.688 (0.156) 0.977 (0.242) 3.133*** (0.698) 2.357** (0.631)
June 2021 # Female 1.744* (0.400) 1.494 (0.360) 1.327 (0.311) 1.159 (0.289) 1.435 (0.309) 1.932* (0.512) 1.089 (0.292) 1.326 (0.379)
Aug. 2021 # Female 1.153 (0.256) 1.205 (0.282) 1.220 (0.232) 0.676 (0.147)
Wave and age int.
Feb. 2021 # 30–49 1.359 (0.286) 1.205 (0.296) 0.324*** (0.074) 0.607 (0.182)
Feb. 2021 # 50–64 1.477 (0.397) 0.576 (0.166) 0.374*** (0.109) 1.069 (0.366)
April 2021 # 30–49 0.744 (0.154) 0.704 (0.176) 0.666 (0.158) 0.959 (0.286)
April 2021 # 50–64 1.252 (0.344) 1.097 (0.324) 0.683 (0.208) 1.762 (0.599)
June 2021 # 30–49 1.587* (0.339) 1.012 (0.238) 0.656* (0.137) 0.785 (0.201) 0.900 (0.208) 0.526* (0.154) 0.853 (0.214) 1.092 (0.300)
June 2021 # 50–64 1.353 (0.442) 1.893 (0.623) 0.526* (0.154) 1.060 (0.322) 0.940 (0.272) 0.880 (0.290) 1.570 (0.576) 1.445 (0.518)
Aug. 2021 # 30–49 1.051 (0.218) 1.115 (0.258) 1.132 (0.197) 1.761** (0.362)
Aug. 2021 # 50–64 1.271 (0.396) 1.573 (0.504) 1.560 (0.489) 8.042*** (2.524)
Wave and educ. int.
Feb. 2021 # Secondary 1.669 (0.600) 1.729 (0.650) 1.089 (0.294) 1.243 (0.407)
Feb. 2021 # Higher education 1.491 (0.733) 2.102 (1.076) 1.081 (0.332) 0.658 (0.251)
April 2021 # Secondary 1.918 (0.695) 2.250* (0.882) 1.313 (0.369) 0.908 (0.302)
April 2021 # Higher education 1.613 (0.769) 1.704 (0.896) 1.619 (0.534) 0.805 (0.310)
June 2021 # Secondary 1.553 (0.417) 1.288 (0.361) 1.253 (0.451) 1.548 (0.585) 1.031 (0.282) 0.789 (0.257) 0.580* (0.151) 0.860 (0.240)
June 2021 # Higher education 1.031 (0.269) 0.818 (0.230) 0.794 (0.374) 0.560 (0.302) 0.977 (0.313) 0.490 (0.181) 1.316 (0.435) 1.250 (0.438)
Aug. 2021 # Secondary 1.005 (0.260) 0.881 (0.240) 2.916*** (0.565) 1.692* (0.373)
Aug. 2021 # Higher education 1.060 (0.265) 1.180 (0.319) 1.086 (0.232) 2.039** (0.512)
Wave and Feb. 2020 income int.
Feb. 2021 # Second 2.548*** (0.606) 1.667 (0.477) 0.444** (0.129) 0.767 (0.277)
Feb. 2021 # Third 0.393 (0.281) 2.785 (1.849) 1.157 (0.350) 1.343 (0.500)
Feb. 2021 # Fourth 0.072* (0.083) 1.096 (1.165) 0.424* (0.167) 0.557 (0.246)
Feb. 2021 # Don’t know/refused/missing 0.666 (0.153) 1.121 (0.273) 0.457* (0.164) 2.692* (1.063)
April 2021 # Second 1.574 (0.374) 2.785*** (0.787) 0.623 (0.186) 1.070 (0.384)
April 2021 # Third 0.843 (0.455) 6.786** (4.380) 0.802 (0.254) 0.992 (0.370)
April 2021 # Fourth 0.482 (0.403) 1.212 (1.347) 0.489 (0.200) 0.645 (0.286)
April 2021 # Don’t know/refused/missing 1.306 (0.298) 1.889* (0.475) 0.721 (0.247) 1.929 (0.732)
June 2021 # Second 1.109 (0.287) 1.099 (0.302) 1.126 (0.283) 1.629 (0.473) 0.835 (0.239) 1.552 (0.550) 1.516 (0.434) 1.983* (0.603)
June 2021 # Third 1.381 (0.445) 1.213 (0.417) 3.781** (1.772) 2.809 (1.835) 1.404 (0.426) 2.569** (0.939) 1.313 (0.426) 1.360 (0.488)
June 2021 # Fourth 1.282 (0.448) 0.950 (0.354) 0.626 (0.481) 0.512 (0.543) 0.298** (0.133) 1.105 (0.477) 1.188 (0.524) 1.253 (0.607)
June 2021 # Don’t know/refused/missing 2.773* (1.337) 2.920* (1.455) 1.600* (0.375) 1.196 (0.311) 1.763 (0.563) 2.537* (0.970) 0.995 (0.403) 0.708 (0.303)
Aug. 2021 # Second 0.955 (0.238) 1.325 (0.357) 0.881 (0.246) 0.462* (0.155)
Aug. 2021 # Third 1.104 (0.342) 1.184 (0.396) 0.829 (0.235) 0.446* (0.147)
Aug. 2021 # Fourth 1.113 (0.377) 1.329 (0.481) 0.886 (0.232) 0.350*** (0.110)
Aug. 2021 # Don’t know/refused/missing 1.520 (0.670) 1.705 (0.787) 1.154 (0.348) 0.483* (0.164)
N (Obs.) 7,625 7,625 8,120 8,120 4,401 4,401 8,143 8,143 4,007 4,007
Pseudo R2 0.344 0.344 0.288 0.288 0.130 0.130 0.343 0.343 0.391 0.391
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