Refugees welcome, but not in my backyard? The impact of immigration on right-wing voting: evidence from Germany
und | 03. Aug. 2020
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Online veröffentlicht: 03. Aug. 2020
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/izajodm-2020-0013
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© 2020 Johannes Jasny, Tilman Becker, published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Figure 1
Placebo regression for the CDU vote shares in the year 2013 in percentage points
| Dependent variable: CDU ’13 vote share | OLS | SDM | SDE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Backyard effect (α1) ( | −0.162 (−0.45) | −0.066 (−0.25) | −0.629*** (−2.54) |
| Neighborhood effect (α2) ( | – | −0.062 (−0.79) | 0.019 (0.24) |
| | 0.83 | – | – |
Vote share estimates for the CDU in the year 2016 (in percentage points)
| Dependent variable: CDU vote share in 2016 | OLS | SDM | SDE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Backyard effect (α1) | −0.604* (−1.91) | −0.334 (−1.14) | −0.113 (−0.43) |
| Neighborhood effect (α2) | – | −0.187** (−2.22) | −0.184** (−2.08) |
| CDU 13 | 0.934*** (36.90) | 0.925*** (52.75) | 0.910*** (49.63) |
| Turnout rate | 0.094*** (3.40) | 0.096*** (4.33) | 0.111*** (5.25) |
| GDP | −0.069*** (−5.29) | −0.063*** (−3.95) | −0.037** (−2.01) |
| Unemployment | −0.016 (−0.09) | 0.000 (0.00) | 0.122 (0.54) |
| Mean age | −0.046 (−0.49) | −0.045 (−0.67) | 0.034 (0.52) |
| Males | −0.014 (−1.08) | −0.014 (−1.49) | 0.003 (0.30) |
| Married | −0.025*** (−4.73) | −0.026*** (−5.71) | −0.024*** (5.24) |
| Population density | −0.053* (−1.64) | −0.042 (−1.15) | 0.015 (0.37) |
| Migrant background | 0.001 (0.29) | 0.001 (0.36) | 0.004 (1.47) |
| Low education | −0.002 (−0.50) | −0.000 (−0.02) | 0.007* (1.91) |
| | – | −0.000 (−0.03) | – |
| | – | – | – |
| | – | – | 0.088*** (16.37) |
| | 3.471* (1.69) | 3.802** (2.31) | 0.425 (0.27) |
| | 0.81 | – | – |
Determinants of refugee allocation
| Dependent variable: Refugee accommodations per 1,000 residents | |
|---|---|
| Initial entry centers | −0.027*** (−4.33) |
| GDP | 0.001 (1.25) |
| Vacancy rate | 3.977*** (4.43) |
| Mayor dummy (CDU) | −0.020 (−0.84) |
| 0.034 | |
Vote share estimates for the AFD in the year 2016 (in percentage points)
| Dependent variable: AFD vote share in 2016 | OLS | SDM | KPM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Backyard effect (α1) | 0.667** (2.47) | 0.594** (2.27) | 0.678*** (2.99) |
| Neighborhood effect (α) | – | 0.046 (0.06) | – |
| AFD 13 | 1.087*** (12.05) | 1.033*** (15.41) | 0.878*** (13.26) |
| Turnout rate | −0.179*** (−7.14) | −0.170*** (−8.53) | −0.151*** (−8.34) |
| GDP | 0.035*** (2.85) | 0.024 (1.66) | 0.024 (1.55) |
| Unemployment | 1.234*** (7.47) | 1.094*** (6.12) | 0.938*** (4.80) |
| Mean age | −0.472*** (−6.32) | −0.456*** (−7.64) | −0.415*** (−7.41) |
| Males | 0.005 (0.41) | 0.008 (0.92) | −0.001 (−0.13) |
| Married | 0.037*** (7.23) | 0.039*** (9.60) | 0.038*** (9.81) |
| Population density | 0.078*** (2.81) | 0.066** (2.04) | 0.102*** (3.02) |
| Migrant background | 0.002 (0.96) | 0.002 (0.96) | 0.003 (1.39) |
| Low education | 0.012*** (4.43) | 0.012*** (4.04) | 0.012*** (3.84) |
| | – | 0.010*** (3.70) | 0.007*** (3.10) |
| | – | – | – |
| | – | – | 0.094*** (20.77) |
| | 5.521*** (2.93) | 5.170*** (3.52) | 4.377*** (3.21) |
| | 0.42 | – | – |
Placebo regression for the AFD vote shares in the year 2013 in percentage points
| Dependent variable: AFD ’13 vote share | OLS | SDM | KPM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Backyard effect (α) ( | 0.120 (1.11) | 0.138 (1.29) | 0.184* (1.85) |
| Neighborhood effect (α2) ( | – | -0.018 (-0.58) | – |
| | 0.30 | – | – |
Variable overview and descriptive statistics
| Variable | Description | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Refhome | Refugee accommodations per 1,000 residents | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| AFD 16 | Vote share of the AFD party in state election 2016 in percentage points | 15.35 | 3.69 |
| CDU 16 | Vote share of the CDU party in state election 2016 in percentage points | 31.10 | 7.15 |
| AFD 13 | Vote share of the AFD party in parliamentary election 2013 in percentage points | 5.21 | 1.35 |
| CDU 13 | Vote share of the CDU party in parliamentary election 2013 in percentage points | 50.18 | 6.87 |
| Turnout rate | Turnout rate in the parliamentary election in 2013 in percentage points | 71.93 | 4.93 |
| GDP | Gross domestic product per 1,000 residents (in €) | 35.57 | 7.16 |
| Unemployment | Unemployment rate in percentage points | 3.74 | 0.53 |
| Mean age | Mean age of the population | 43.53 | 1.64 |
| Males | Male population per 1,000 residents | 495.10 | 12.01 |
| Married | Married population per 1,000 residents | 486.09 | 23.30 |
| Population density | The number of residents per hectare | 3.24 | 3.45 |
| Migrant background | German citizens with migrant background per 1,000 residents | 160.45 | 42.07 |
| Low education | Highest degree = Basic education (second step) per 1,000 residents | 337.87 | 35.71 |