What Drives Youth’s Intention to Migrate Abroad? Evidence from International Survey Data

Santo Milasi

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What Drives Youth’s Intention to Migrate Abroad? Evidence from International Survey Data

Santo Milasi

| 16. Juli 2020

IZA Journal of Development and Migration

Band 11 (2020): Heft 1 (January 2020)

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Online veröffentlicht: 16. Juli 2020

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/izajodm-2020-0012

Schlüsselwörter
migration, intention to migrate, youth, labor market, brain drain

© 2020 Santo Milasi, published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Average migration intention among youth (15–34) and adults (35–64).Note: Figure shows the average percentage of youth (15–34) and adults (35–64) who desire to move permanently abroad between 2010 and 2016 (Desire) across groups of developing, emerging, and developed countries (see text footnote 4 for details on the country groupings). The figure also shows the average percentage of those who desire to migrate and are planning to do so over the next 12 months (Plan). Data for the variable Plan are only available for the period 2010–2015.Source: The author’s elaboration from GWP data.

Percentage of youth (15–34) who desire (plan) to move abroad from 2010 to 2016.Note: Figure shows the evolution of percentage of youth (15–34) who desire to move permanently abroad between 2010 and 2016 across groups of developing, emerging, and developed countries (see text footnote 4 for details on the country groupings). The figure also shows the average percentage of those who desire to migrate and are actually planning to do so over the next 12 months (Plan). Data for the variable Plan are only available for the period 2010–2015.Source: The author’s elaboration from GWP data.

Youth (15–34) desire/plan to migrate abroad, 2010–2012, full results corresponding to Panel A of Table 3

	2010–2012
Country grouping	Developing		Emerging		Developed
Dependent variable	Desire	Plan	Desire	Plan	Desire	Plan
Female	−0.052^***	−0.015	−0.043^***	−0.014^**	−0.018^**	−0.015
	(0.007)	(0.011)	(0.004)	(0.006)	(0.008)	(0.013)
Married	−0.073^***	0.010	−0.056^***	−0.001	−0.048^***	−0.028
	(0.008)	(0.013)	(0.005)	(0.008)	(0.011)	(0.017)
Age (25–34)	−0.020^**	0.003	−0.050^***	0.019^***	−0.058^***	−0.005
	(0.008)	(0.012)	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.010)	(0.015)
Have kid(s)	0.031^***	−0.003	0.013^***	−0.013^*	−0.001	−0.024
	(0.010)	(0.014)	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.010)	(0.015)
Urban	0.075^***	0.033^**	0.044^***	0.036^***	0.037^***	0.014
	(0.010)	(0.013)	(0.004)	(0.007)	(0.009)	(0.013)
Poor health	−0.008	0.024^*	0.008	0.015^*	−0.022	−0.005
	(0.009)	(0.013)	(0.005)	(0.008)	(0.014)	(0.020)
Medium education	0.069^***	0.035^***	0.044^***	0.009	0.004	−0.005
	(0.008)	(0.012)	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.014)	(0.020)
High education	0.012	0.094^***	0.053^***	0.018	0.006	0.052^**
	(0.026)	(0.029)	(0.008)	(0.011)	(0.017)	(0.024)
Lack of food/shelter	0.014^*	0.004	0.013^***	0.004	0.024^*	0.050^***
	(0.008)	(0.012)	(0.004)	(0.006)	(0.012)	(0.016)
Difficult living on present income	0.012	0.001	−0.005	−0.026^***	0.020^*	0.001
	(0.008)	(0.012)	(0.004)	(0.006)	(0.012)	(0.016)
No improvement in living standards	−0.013	0.007	0.009	0.002	0.017	0.005
	(0.010)	(0.014)	(0.006)	(0.008)	(0.012)	(0.014)
No opportunity to meet people	−0.006	0.003	0.003	0.002	0.034^***	−0.004
	(0.008)	(0.011)	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.011)	(0.014)
No help from friends/relatives	0.021^**	−0.007	0.023^***	0.009	−0.005	−0.021
	(0.009)	(0.013)	(0.006)	(0.008)	(0.020)	(0.026)
Discontent with local amenities	0.130^***	0.005	0.089^***	0.006	0.143^***	0.037^**
	(0.008)	(0.011)	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.012)	(0.015)
Discontent with education system	0.016^**	−0.014	0.013^***	0.003	0.045^***	0.004
	(0.008)	(0.011)	(0.004)	(0.006)	(0.010)	(0.014)
No trust in national government	0.046^***	−0.031^***	0.048^***	0.014^**	0.080^***	−0.037^**
	(0.008)	(0.011)	(0.004)	(0.007)	(0.010)	(0.015)
Corruption in government	0.051^***	0.024	0.042^***	−0.008	0.043^***	−0.002
	(0.010)	(0.016)	(0.006)	(0.009)	(0.012)	(0.018)
Worsening economy	0.030^***	0.012	0.035^***	0.031^***	0.042^***	0.034^**
	(0.009)	(0.013)	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.010)	(0.014)
Bad time to find a job	0.014^*	−0.006	0.009^*	−0.034^***	0.003	−0.011
	(0.008)	(0.012)	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.010)	(0.016)
No get ahead by working hard	0.040^***	0.012	0.029^***	0.003	0.059^***	0.021
	(0.011)	(0.016)	(0.006)	(0.008)	(0.010)	(0.013)
Unemployed	0.048^***	0.027	0.027^***	0.019^**	0.035^**	0.020
	(0.012)	(0.017)	(0.006)	(0.009)	(0.015)	(0.019)
Out of workforce	0.007	−0.059^***	−0.005	−0.032^***	−0.002	−0.035^**
	(0.008)	(0.012)	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.010)	(0.016)
Observations	21,828	7,272	63,594	18,224	15,290	3,413

Youth (15–34) desire/plan to migrate abroad, 2013–2016, full results corresponding to Panel B of Table 3

	2013–2016^*
Country grouping:	Developing		Emerging		Developed
Dependent variable:	Desire	Plan	Desire	Plan	Desire	Plan
Female	−0.050^***	0.009	−0.039^***	−0.020^***	−0.017^**	−0.001
	(0.006)	(0.012)	(0.004)	(0.006)	(0.007)	(0.011)
Married	−0.063^***	−0.038^***	−0.059^***	−0.013^*	−0.062^***	−0.014
	(0.007)	(0.013)	(0.004)	(0.008)	(0.009)	(0.014)
Age (25–34)	−0.042^***	0.018	−0.048^***	0.009	−0.063^***	0.001
	(0.007)	(0.013)	(0.004)	(0.007)	(0.009)	(0.013)
Have kid(s)	0.017^**	0.001	0.011^***	−0.012^*	−0.009	−0.033^***
	(0.008)	(0.015)	(0.004)	(0.007)	(0.008)	(0.013)
Urban	0.049^***	0.027^**	0.039^***	0.019^***	0.049^***	0.006
	(0.008)	(0.013)	(0.004)	(0.007)	(0.008)	(0.012)
Poor health	−0.003	0.059^***	−0.015^***	0.021^**	0.020	0.003
	(0.008)	(0.014)	(0.006)	(0.010)	(0.013)	(0.019)
Medium education	0.071^***	0.037^***	0.053^***	0.017^**	−0.002	0.034^*
	(0.007)	(0.012)	(0.005)	(0.008)	(0.013)	(0.019)
High education	0.065^***	0.075^***	0.078^***	0.046^***	0.004	0.080^***
	(0.017)	(0.028)	(0.007)	(0.011)	(0.015)	(0.021)
Lack of food/shelter	0.009	0.007	0.016^***	0.015^**	0.049^***	0.014
	(0.007)	(0.012)	(0.004)	(0.007)	(0.010)	(0.013)
Difficult living on present income	0.010	−0.036^***	0.005	−0.029^***	0.027^***	−0.005
	(0.007)	(0.012)	(0.004)	(0.007)	(0.010)	(0.013)
No improvement in living standards	−0.006	0.005	0.012^**	0.003	−0.004	0.029^**
	(0.008)	(0.013)	(0.005)	(0.008)	(0.010)	(0.013)
No opportunity to meet people	0.001	0.008	−0.002	0.004	0.043^***	0.000
	(0.007)	(0.012)	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.010)	(0.013)
No help from friends/relatives	0.013^*	0.004	0.014^***	−0.012	0.006	−0.005
	(0.007)	(0.013)	(0.005)	(0.009)	(0.016)	(0.018)
Discontent with local amenities	0.090^***	0.018	0.095^***	0.023^***	0.137^***	0.033^***
	(0.007)	(0.012)	(0.004)	(0.007)	(0.010)	(0.013)
Discontent with education system	0.003	−0.031^**	0.014^***	0.006	0.040^***	0.015
	(0.006)	(0.012)	(0.004)	(0.007)	(0.008)	(0.012)
No trust in national government	0.043^***	−0.005	0.054^***	0.017^**	0.076^***	−0.006
	(0.006)	(0.012)	(0.004)	(0.007)	(0.009)	(0.014)
Corruption in government	0.049^***	−0.028^*	0.053^***	0.006	0.047^***	−0.009
	(0.008)	(0.016)	(0.005)	(0.009)	(0.010)	(0.015)
Worsening economy	0.040^***	0.034^***	0.044^***	0.013^*	0.038^***	0.007
	(0.007)	(0.013)	(0.004)	(0.007)	(0.009)	(0.012)
Bad time to find a job	0.020^***	−0.029^**	0.023^***	−0.011	0.021^**	0.014
	(0.006)	(0.012)	(0.004)	(0.007)	(0.008)	(0.013)
No get ahead by working hard	0.052^***	0.025	0.041^***	0.032^***	0.082^***	0.035^***
	(0.009)	(0.015)	(0.005)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.012)
Unemployed	0.038^***	0.033^*	0.042^***	0.013	0.040^***	0.036^**
	(0.010)	(0.017)	(0.006)	(0.009)	(0.013)	(0.016)
Out of workforce	−0.021^***	−0.033^**	−0.006	−0.033^***	0.015^*	−0.028^**
	(0.007)	(0.013)	(0.004)	(0.007)	(0.009)	(0.014)
Observations	30,933	7,869	77,442	18,759	19,715	4,134

Employed youth desire/plan to migrate abroad

Country grouping:	Developing		Emerging		Developed
Dependent variable:	Desire	Plan	Desire	Plan	Desire	Plan
Female	−0.058^***	−0.011	−0.031^***	−0.022^***	−0.030^***	−0.011
	(0.006)	(0.011)	(0.004)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.012)
Married	−0.062^***	−0.034^***	−0.049^***	−0.017^**	−0.044^***	−0.039^***
	(0.007)	(0.012)	(0.004)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.014)
Age (25–34)	−0.032^***	0.008	−0.040^***	−0.005	−0.055^***	−0.023^*
	(0.007)	(0.012)	(0.004)	(0.007)	(0.008)	(0.013)
Have kid(s)	0.013	0.016	0.004	−0.013^*	−0.004	−0.018
	(0.008)	(0.014)	(0.004)	(0.007)	(0.008)	(0.013)
Urban	0.061^***	0.032^**	0.045^***	0.039^***	0.049^***	0.017
	(0.008)	(0.014)	(0.004)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.012)
Poor health	0.007	0.037^***	0.005	0.022^**	−0.002	0.001
	(0.008)	(0.013)	(0.006)	(0.009)	(0.012)	(0.019)
Medium education	0.053^***	0.051^***	0.045^***	0.015^*	−0.015	0.017
	(0.007)	(0.012)	(0.005)	(0.008)	(0.015)	(0.022)
High education	0.021	0.097^***	0.054^***	0.039^***	0.002	0.067^***
	(0.018)	(0.027)	(0.007)	(0.012)	(0.016)	(0.023)
Wealth
Lack of food/shelter	0.020^***	0.012	0.022^***	0.018^**	0.053^***	0.030^**
	(0.007)	(0.012)	(0.004)	(0.007)	(0.010)	(0.014)
Difficult living on present income	0.009	−0.015	0.009^**	−0.023^***	0.035^***	−0.003
	(0.007)	(0.012)	(0.004)	(0.007)	(0.009)	(0.014)
No improvement in living standards	0.002	−0.003	0.016^***	0.007	−0.005	0.011
	(0.008)	(0.013)	(0.005)	(0.008)	(0.009)	(0.014)
Network
No opportunity to meet people	−0.002	−0.013	0.006	0.007	0.041^***	−0.010
	(0.007)	(0.011)	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.009)	(0.013)
No help from friends/relatives	0.016^**	0.011	0.011^**	−0.002	0.009	−0.023
	(0.007)	(0.012)	(0.005)	(0.009)	(0.015)	(0.020)
Context
Discontent with local amenities	0.099^***	0.016	0.095^***	0.004	0.132^***	0.012
	(0.006)	(0.011)	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.010)	(0.013)
Discontent with education system	0.008	−0.022^*	0.010^**	0.004	0.042^***	0.015
	(0.006)	(0.011)	(0.004)	(0.007)	(0.008)	(0.012)
No trust in national government	0.056^***	−0.016	0.059^***	0.016^**	0.068^***	−0.012
	(0.006)	(0.011)	(0.004)	(0.007)	(0.008)	(0.014)
Corruption in government	0.044^***	−0.016	0.046^***	−0.002	0.057^***	0.014
	(0.009)	(0.015)	(0.006)	(0.010)	(0.009)	(0.016)
Labor
Worsening economy	0.028^***	0.030^**	0.043^***	0.021^***	0.043^***	0.027^**
	(0.007)	(0.012)	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.008)	(0.013)
Bad time to find a job	0.023^***	−0.011	0.018^***	−0.029^***	0.012	−0.001
	(0.006)	(0.012)	(0.004)	(0.007)	(0.008)	(0.013)
No get ahead by working hard	0.059^***	0.040^***	0.047^***	0.017^*	0.078^***	0.035^***
	(0.009)	(0.015)	(0.006)	(0.009)	(0.008)	(0.012)
Involuntary part-time	0.037^***	0.030^**	0.035^***	0.025^***	0.042^***	0.015
	(0.007)	(0.012)	(0.005)	(0.008)	(0.011)	(0.016)
Self-employed	−0.023^***	−0.008	−0.009^**	0.007	0.008	0.017
	(0.007)	(0.013)	(0.004)	(0.007)	(0.009)	(0.015)

Number of countries	22	22	75	75	42	42
Observations	30,833	8,419	70,786	17,747	21,987	4,271

Youth (15–34) desire/plan to migrate abroad in country samples including and excluding Top 15 refugee-sending countries, full results corresponding to Panel C of Table 3

	Excluding Top 15 refugee-sending countries
Country grouping	Developing		Emerging		Top 15 refugeesending countries
Dependent variable	Desire	Plan	Desire	Plan	Desire	Plan
Female	−0.049^***	−0.002	−0.037^***	−0.015^***	−0.066^***	−0.019^*
	(0.005)	(0.009)	(0.003)	(0.005)	(0.006)	(0.011)
Married	−0.066^***	−0.015	−0.061^***	−0.007	−0.050^***	−0.006
	(0.006)	(0.011)	(0.004)	(0.006)	(0.007)	(0.012)
Age (25–34)	−0.027^***	0.017^*	−0.050^***	0.011^**	−0.048^***	0.013
	(0.006)	(0.010)	(0.003)	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.012)
Have kid(s)	0.028^***	0.012	0.016^***	−0.014^***	−0.008	−0.014
	(0.007)	(0.011)	(0.003)	(0.005)	(0.008)	(0.013)
Urban	0.052^***	0.033^***	0.040^***	0.026^***	0.055^***	0.036^***
	(0.007)	(0.010)	(0.003)	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.012)
Poor health	−0.001	0.036^***	−0.004	0.019^***	−0.002	0.033^**
	(0.007)	(0.011)	(0.004)	(0.006)	(0.008)	(0.014)
Medium education	0.071^***	0.037^***	0.045^***	0.008	0.081^***	0.043^***
	(0.006)	(0.009)	(0.004)	(0.006)	(0.008)	(0.013)
High education	0.055^***	0.072^***	0.061^***	0.028^***	0.095^***	0.073^***
	(0.019)	(0.025)	(0.006)	(0.009)	(0.013)	(0.021)
Lack of food/shelter	0.009	0.004	0.013^***	0.010^*	0.020^***	0.010
	(0.006)	(0.010)	(0.003)	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.011)
Difficult living on present income	0.010^*	−0.015	−0.006^*	−0.031^***	0.031^***	−0.016
	(0.006)	(0.010)	(0.003)	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.011)
No improvement in living standards	−0.004	0.004	0.013^***	0.002	−0.009	0.008
	(0.007)	(0.011)	(0.004)	(0.006)	(0.008)	(0.013)
No opportunity to meet people	−0.006	0.013	0.001	0.008	0.004	−0.018
	(0.006)	(0.009)	(0.004)	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.011)
No help from friends/relatives	0.012^*	−0.008	0.021^***	0.001	0.015^**	0.001
	(0.006)	(0.010)	(0.004)	(0.006)	(0.008)	(0.013)
Discontent with local amenities	0.102^***	0.009	0.091^***	0.015^***	0.111^***	0.012
	(0.006)	(0.009)	(0.003)	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.011)
Discontent with education system	0.011^**	−0.017^*	0.015^***	0.003	−0.002	−0.006
	(0.006)	(0.009)	(0.003)	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.011)
No trust in national government	0.048^***	−0.027^***	0.053^***	0.015^***	0.041^***	0.012
	(0.006)	(0.009)	(0.003)	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.011)
Corruption in government	0.042^***	0.009	0.048^***	−0.001	0.062^***	−0.033^**
	(0.008)	(0.013)	(0.004)	(0.007)	(0.009)	(0.015)
Worsening economy	0.038^***	0.024^**	0.039^***	0.020^***	0.043^***	0.031^***
	(0.006)	(0.010)	(0.004)	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.012)
Bad time to find a job	0.017^***	−0.006	0.017^***	−0.027^***	0.019^***	−0.031^***
	(0.006)	(0.009)	(0.003)	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.012)
No get ahead by working hard	0.048^***	0.016	0.037^***	0.022^***	0.036^***	0.007
	(0.008)	(0.013)	(0.004)	(0.006)	(0.009)	(0.014)
Unemployed	0.044^***	0.035^**	0.036^***	0.019^***	0.037^***	0.000
	(0.009)	(0.014)	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.010)	(0.016)
Out of workforce	−0.007	−0.042^***	−0.006^*	−0.032^***	−0.005	−0.052^***
	(0.006)	(0.010)	(0.003)	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.012)

Number of countries	15	15	67	67	15	15
Observations	38,510	11,541	124,312	32,530	30,975	8,075

Employed adults (35–64) desire/plan to migrate abroad, full regression results corresponding to Panel B of Table 4

Country grouping	Developing		Emerging		Developed
Dependent variable	Desire	Plan	Desire	Plan	Desire	Plan
Female	−0.046^***	−0.014	−0.015^***	−0.024^***	−0.040^***	−0.025^***
	(0.006)	(0.017)	(0.003)	(0.007)	(0.004)	(0.007)
Married	−0.022^***	−0.046^**	−0.019^***	−0.030^***	−0.025^***	−0.018^**
	(0.008)	(0.019)	(0.004)	(0.008)	(0.004)	(0.007)
Age (35–39)	0.102^***	−0.037	0.105^***	0.038^**	0.089^***	0.029^*
	(0.014)	(0.038)	(0.007)	(0.018)	(0.009)	(0.017)
Age (40–44)	0.060^***	−0.041	0.093^***	0.031^*	0.073^***	0.028
	(0.014)	(0.039)	(0.007)	(0.018)	(0.008)	(0.017)
Age (45–49)	0.054^***	−0.047	0.065^***	0.018	0.063^***	0.010
	(0.014)	(0.040)	(0.007)	(0.019)	(0.008)	(0.017)
Age (50–54)	0.018	−0.066	0.048^***	0.009	0.039^***	0.005
	(0.015)	(0.043)	(0.007)	(0.019)	(0.008)	(0.017)
Age (55–59)	0.009	−0.007	0.022^***	0.005	0.020^**	0.005
	(0.016)	(0.048)	(0.008)	(0.021)	(0.008)	(0.018)
Have kid(s)	0.019^**	0.027	0.002	−0.007	0.004	−0.010
	(0.009)	(0.023)	(0.003)	(0.008)	(0.004)	(0.007)
Urban	0.045^***	0.033^*	0.034^***	0.031^***	0.023^***	0.003
	(0.008)	(0.019)	(0.003)	(0.007)	(0.004)	(0.007)
Poor health	0.014^**	−0.003	0.005	0.010	0.010^*	0.004
	(0.006)	(0.018)	(0.004)	(0.008)	(0.005)	(0.009)
Medium education	0.048^***	0.020	0.033^***	0.032^***	0.017^**	0.004
	(0.007)	(0.018)	(0.004)	(0.008)	(0.007)	(0.012)
High education	0.004	0.041	0.047^***	0.045^***	0.030^***	0.014
	(0.015)	(0.032)	(0.005)	(0.011)	(0.008)	(0.013)
Lack of food/shelter	0.013^*	0.001	0.026^***	0.026^***	0.036^***	0.020^**
	(0.007)	(0.017)	(0.003)	(0.008)	(0.005)	(0.008)
Difficult living on present income	0.017^**	−0.028	0.009^***	−0.014^*	0.019^***	0.017^**
	(0.007)	(0.018)	(0.003)	(0.008)	(0.005)	(0.007)
No improvement in living standards	0.006	0.001	0.027^***	−0.010	0.030^***	0.011
	(0.007)	(0.018)	(0.004)	(0.008)	(0.004)	(0.008)
No opportunity to meet people	−0.006	0.027	0.004	−0.006	0.040^***	0.003
	(0.006)	(0.017)	(0.004)	(0.008)	(0.005)	(0.007)
No help from friends/relatives	−0.011	0.001	−0.015^***	−0.004	−0.030^***	−0.003
	(0.007)	(0.017)	(0.004)	(0.008)	(0.006)	(0.009)
Discontent with local amenities	0.078^***	−0.005	0.070^***	0.019^***	0.106^***	0.014^*
	(0.006)	(0.017)	(0.004)	(0.007)	(0.005)	(0.008)
Discontent with education system	0.008	0.003	0.026^***	−0.002	0.026^***	0.009
	(0.006)	(0.016)	(0.003)	(0.007)	(0.004)	(0.007)
No trust in national government	0.031^***	0.006	0.047^***	−0.001	0.053^***	0.002
	(0.006)	(0.017)	(0.003)	(0.008)	(0.004)	(0.009)
Corruption in government	0.041^***	0.003	0.049^***	−0.012	0.052^***	−0.002
	(0.008)	(0.023)	(0.005)	(0.011)	(0.005)	(0.009)
Worsening economy	0.033^***	0.031^*	0.032^***	0.027^***	0.017^***	−0.011
	(0.007)	(0.018)	(0.004)	(0.008)	(0.004)	(0.008)
Bad time to find a job	0.009	−0.026	0.006	−0.027^***	0.013^***	0.001
	(0.006)	(0.017)	(0.004)	(0.008)	(0.005)	(0.009)
No get ahead by working hard	0.034^***	−0.016	0.040^***	0.019^**	0.060^***	0.025^***
	(0.009)	(0.022)	(0.004)	(0.009)	(0.004)	(0.007)
Involuntary part-time	0.041^***	0.028	0.038^***	0.008	0.017^**	-0.002
	(0.007)	(0.019)	(0.005)	(0.009)	(0.007)	(0.011)
Self-employed	−0.032^***	−0.011	−0.009^**	0.016^**	−0.006	0.024^***
	(0.008)	(0.019)	(0.003)	(0.008)	(0.005)	(0.008)

Number of countries	22	22	75	75	45	45
Observations	23,225	3,961	81,917	12,937	53,546	6,449

Description of GWP questions underlying main explanatory variables

Variable name	Questions asked
Desire (=1 if respondents answered “Like to move to another country,” =0 if respondents answered “Like to continue living in this country”)	Ideally, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move PERMANENTLY to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country?
Plan (=1 if respondents answered “Yes, will move in the next 12 months,” =0 if respondents answered “No”)	Are you planning to move permanently to another country in the next 12 months, or not? (asked only of those that would like to move to another country)
Lack of food/shelter (=1 if respondents answered “Difficult” or “Very difficult” to at least one of the two questions, =0 otherwise)	Have there been times in the past 12 months when you did not have enough money to buy food that you or your family needed? (WP40) Have there been times in the past 12 months when you did not have enough money to provide adequate shelter or housing for you and your family?
Difficult living on present income (=1 if respondents stated “Difficult” or “Very difficult,” =0 otherwise)	Which one of these phrases comes closest to your own feelings about your household’s income these days: living comfortably on present income, getting by on present income, finding it difficult on present income, or finding it very difficult on present income?
No opportunity to meet people (=1 if respondents stated “not satisfied,” =0 otherwise)	In the city or area where you live, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the opportunities to meet people and make friends?
Have help from friends/relatives (=1 if respondents stated “yes,” =0 otherwise)	If you were in trouble, do you have relatives or friends you can count on to help you whenever you need them, or not?
No improvement in living standards (=1 if respondents stated “worse,” =0 otherwise)	Right now, do you feel your standard of living is getting better or getting worse?
Discontent with local amenities (=1 if respondents stated “worse,” =0 otherwise)	Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the city or area where you live?
Discontent with education system (=1 if respondents stated “worse,” =0 otherwise)	In the city or area where you live, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the educational system or the schools?
No confidence in government (=1 if respondents stated “worse,” =0 otherwise)	Do you have trust in the national government?
Corruption in government (=1 if respondents stated “Yes,” =0 otherwise)	Is corruption widespread throughout the government in (this country), or not?
Bad time to find a job (=1 if respondents stated “worse,” =0 otherwise)	Thinking about the job situation in the city or area where you live today, would you say that it is now a good time or a bad time to find a job? (WP89)
Worsening economic situation (=1 if respondents stated “Worse,” =0 otherwise)	Right now, do you think that economic conditions in the city or area where you live, as a whole, are getting better or getting worse?
No get ahead by working hard (=1 if respondents answered “No,” =0 otherwise)	Can people in this country get ahead by working hard, or not?
Poor self-reported health (=1 if respondent answered “Yes,” =0 otherwise)	Do you have any health problems that prevent you from doing any of the things people your age normally can do?
Involuntary part-time (=1 if respondent answered “Yes,” =0 otherwise)	Respondents are “underemployed” if they are employed part time but want to work full time
Medium education (=1 if respondent completed secondary education, =0 otherwise)	What is your highest completed level of education?
High education (=1 if respondent completed tertiary education, =0 otherwise)	What is your highest completed level of education?
Age (25–34) (=1 if the age of the respondent is between 25 and 34, =0 otherwise)	Please tell me your age
Have kid(s) (=1 if the respondent has at least one children living in the household)	How many children under 15 years of age are now living in your household?

Adults (35–64) desire/plan to migrate abroad, full regression results corresponding to Panel A of Table 4

Country grouping	Developing		Emerging		Developed
Dependent variable	Desire	Plan	Desire	Plan	Desire	Plan
Female	−0.043^***	−0.014	−0.017^***	−0.030^***	−0.037^***	−0.031^***
	(0.005)	(0.014)	(0.003)	(0.006)	(0.003)	(0.006)
Married	−0.022^***	−0.048^***	−0.022^***	−0.029^***	−0.018^***	−0.019^***
	(0.006)	(0.016)	(0.003)	(0.006)	(0.004)	(0.006)
Age (35–39)	0.111^***	−0.039	0.108^***	0.030^**	0.100^***	0.023^*
	(0.011)	(0.031)	(0.005)	(0.013)	(0.007)	(0.014)
Age (40–44)	0.072^***	−0.035	0.092^***	0.018	0.087^***	0.024^*
	(0.011)	(0.032)	(0.005)	(0.013)	(0.006)	(0.014)
Age (45–49)	0.065^***	−0.050	0.070^***	0.011	0.072^***	0.006
	(0.012)	(0.033)	(0.005)	(0.013)	(0.006)	(0.014)
Age (50–54)	0.030^**	−0.036	0.050^***	0.010	0.053^***	−0.002
	(0.012)	(0.035)	(0.005)	(0.014)	(0.006)	(0.014)
Age (55–59)	0.020	0.006	0.027^***	−0.004	0.029^***	0.010
	(0.013)	(0.039)	(0.006)	(0.015)	(0.006)	(0.013)
Have kid(s)	0.015^**	0.014	0.006^**	−0.000	0.008^**	−0.006
	(0.008)	(0.019)	(0.003)	(0.006)	(0.004)	(0.007)
Urban	0.054^***	0.041^***	0.034^***	0.027^***	0.022^***	0.009
	(0.007)	(0.016)	(0.003)	(0.006)	(0.003)	(0.006)
Poor health	0.008	0.007	0.004	0.002	0.011^***	−0.006
	(0.005)	(0.015)	(0.003)	(0.006)	(0.004)	(0.008)
Medium education	0.052^***	0.029^*	0.038^***	0.027^***	0.023^***	0.005
	(0.006)	(0.015)	(0.003)	(0.007)	(0.006)	(0.010)
High education	0.025^*	0.054^*	0.053^***	0.039^***	0.038^***	0.019^*
	(0.013)	(0.029)	(0.004)	(0.009)	(0.006)	(0.011)
Lack of food/shelter	0.015^***	0.009	0.026^***	0.019^***	0.038^***	0.019^***
	(0.006)	(0.015)	(0.003)	(0.006)	(0.004)	(0.007)
Difficult living on present income	0.014^**	−0.040^***	0.006^**	−0.015^**	0.019^***	0.021^***
	(0.006)	(0.015)	(0.003)	(0.006)	(0.004)	(0.007)
No improvement in living standards	0.003	0.009	0.025^***	−0.003	0.028^***	0.003
	(0.006)	(0.016)	(0.003)	(0.006)	(0.004)	(0.007)
No opportunity to meet people	−0.008	0.026^*	0.002	0.001	0.034^***	0.001
	(0.006)	(0.014)	(0.003)	(0.006)	(0.004)	(0.007)
No help from friends/relatives	−0.007	0.002	−0.012^***	0.002	−0.026^***	−0.004
	(0.005)	(0.014)	(0.003)	(0.006)	(0.005)	(0.008)
Discontent with local amenities	0.073^***	0.003	0.068^***	0.019^***	0.104^***	0.018^***
	(0.006)	(0.014)	(0.003)	(0.006)	(0.004)	(0.007)
Discontent with education system	0.006	0.015	0.019^***	−0.000	0.028^***	0.010
	(0.005)	(0.014)	(0.003)	(0.006)	(0.004)	(0.006)
No trust in national government	0.033^***	−0.004	0.046^***	0.004	0.057^***	−0.007
	(0.005)	(0.015)	(0.003)	(0.006)	(0.004)	(0.008)
Corruption in government	0.037^***	0.010	0.039^***	−0.010	0.050^***	0.003
	(0.007)	(0.020)	(0.004)	(0.009)	(0.004)	(0.008)
Worsening economy	0.034^***	0.026	0.032^***	0.023^***	0.016^***	−0.006
	(0.006)	(0.016)	(0.003)	(0.006)	(0.004)	(0.007)
Bad time to find a job	0.008	−0.031^**	0.006^**	−0.027^***	0.011^***	0.003
	(0.005)	(0.015)	(0.003)	(0.007)	(0.004)	(0.009)
No get ahead by working hard	0.032^***	−0.025	0.033^***	0.010	0.051^***	0.026^***
	(0.007)	(0.019)	(0.003)	(0.007)	(0.004)	(0.007)
Unemployed	0.020^*	0.030	0.036^***	0.027^***	0.034^***	0.049^***
	(0.010)	(0.024)	(0.005)	(0.009)	(0.007)	(0.009)
Out of workforce	−0.021^***	−0.014	−0.025^***	−0.006	−0.013^***	0.019^**
	(0.007)	(0.018)	(0.003)	(0.007)	(0.004)	(0.008)

Number of countries	22	22	75	75	45	45
Observations	31,678	5,351	127,749	19,605	73,970	9,113

Adults desire/plan to migrate abroad, selected results

Panel A: Total adults (aged 35–64)
Country grouping:	Developing		Emerging		Developed
Dependent variable:	Desire	Plan	Desire	Plan	Desire	Plan
Female	−0.043^***	−0.014	−0.017^***	−0.030^***	−0.037^***	−0.031^***
	(0.005)	(0.014)	(0.003)	(0.006)	(0.003)	(0.006)
Married	−0.022^***	−0.048^***	−0.022^***	−0.029^***	−0.018^***	−0.019^***
	(0.006)	(0.016)	(0.003)	(0.006)	(0.004)	(0.006)
Have kid(s)	0.015^**	0.014	0.006^**	−0.000	0.008^**	−0.006
	(0.008)	(0.019)	(0.003)	(0.006)	(0.004)	(0.007)
High education	0.025^*	0.054^*	0.053^***	0.039^***	0.038^***	0.019^*
	(0.013)	(0.029)	(0.004)	(0.009)	(0.006)	(0.011)
Difficult living on present income	0.014^**	−0.040^***	0.006^**	−0.015^**	0.019^***	0.021^***
	(0.006)	(0.015)	(0.003)	(0.006)	(0.004)	(0.007)
Discontent with local amenities	0.073^***	0.003	0.068^***	0.019^***	0.104^***	0.018^***
	(0.006)	(0.014)	(0.003)	(0.006)	(0.004)	(0.007)
No trust in national government	0.033^***	−0.004	0.046^***	0.004	0.057^***	−0.007
	(0.005)	(0.015)	(0.003)	(0.006)	(0.004)	(0.008)
No get ahead by working hard	0.032^***	−0.025	0.033^***	0.010	0.051^***	0.026^***
	(0.007)	(0.019)	(0.003)	(0.007)	(0.004)	(0.007)
Unemployed	0.020^*	0.030	0.036^***	0.027^***	0.034^***	0.049^***
	(0.010)	(0.024)	(0.005)	(0.009)	(0.007)	(0.009)
Out of workforce	−0.021^***	−0.014	−0.025^***	−0.006	−0.013^***	0.019^**
	(0.007)	(0.018)	(0.003)	(0.007)	(0.004)	(0.008)

Number of countries	22	22	75	75	45	45
Observations	31,678	5,351	127,749	19,605	73,970	9,113

Youth (15–34) desire/plan to migrate abroad

Country grouping:	Developing		Emerging		Developed
Dependent variable:	Desire	Plan	Desire	Plan	Desire	Plan
Female	−0.051^***	−0.003	−0.041^***	−0.017^***	−0.019^***	−0.007
	(0.005)	(0.008)	(0.003)	(0.004)	(0.006)	(0.008)
Married	−0.066^***	−0.011	−0.058^***	−0.008	−0.057^***	−0.020^*
	(0.005)	(0.010)	(0.003)	(0.006)	(0.007)	(0.011)
Age (25–34)	−0.034^***	0.009	−0.049^***	0.014^***	−0.061^***	−0.004
	(0.005)	(0.009)	(0.003)	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.010)
Have kid(s)	0.026^***	0.003	0.012^***	−0.013^***	−0.003	−0.028^***
	(0.006)	(0.011)	(0.003)	(0.005)	(0.006)	(0.010)
Urban	0.059^***	0.033^***	0.041^***	0.027^***	0.043^***	0.010
	(0.006)	(0.009)	(0.003)	(0.005)	(0.006)	(0.009)
Poor health	−0.004	0.040^***	−0.002	0.018^***	−0.001	0.000
	(0.006)	(0.010)	(0.004)	(0.006)	(0.009)	(0.014)
Medium education	0.072^***	0.036^***	0.050^***	0.012^**	0.003	0.013
	(0.005)	(0.009)	(0.003)	(0.005)	(0.010)	(0.014)
High education	0.051^***	0.078^***	0.067^***	0.031^***	0.008	0.064^***
	(0.014)	(0.021)	(0.005)	(0.008)	(0.011)	(0.016)
Wealth
Lack of food/shelter	0.011^**	0.005	0.014^***	0.009^*	0.040^***	0.031^***
	(0.005)	(0.009)	(0.003)	(0.005)	(0.008)	(0.010)
Difficult living on present income	0.013^**	−0.016^*	−0.001	−0.029^***	0.023^***	−0.004
	(0.005)	(0.008)	(0.003)	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.010)
No improvement in living standards	−0.007	0.005	0.011^***	0.003	0.004	0.018^*
	(0.006)	(0.010)	(0.004)	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.010)
Network
No opportunity to meet people	−0.001	0.006	0.000	0.005	0.040^***	−0.003
	(0.005)	(0.008)	(0.003)	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.010)
No help from friends/relatives	0.015^***	−0.002	0.019^***	−0.002	0.002	−0.010
	(0.005)	(0.009)	(0.004)	(0.006)	(0.012)	(0.015)
Context
Discontent with local amenities	0.104^***	0.008	0.093^***	0.016^***	0.140^***	0.034^***
	(0.005)	(0.008)	(0.003)	(0.005)	(0.008)	(0.010)
Discontent with education system	0.007	−0.020^**	0.014^***	0.004	0.043^***	0.011
	(0.005)	(0.008)	(0.003)	(0.005)	(0.006)	(0.009)
No trust in national government	0.045^***	−0.016^**	0.052^***	0.014^***	0.076^***	−0.020^**
	(0.005)	(0.008)	(0.003)	(0.005)	(0.006)	(0.010)
Corruption in government	0.051^***	−0.007	0.048^***	−0.003	0.047^***	−0.004
	(0.006)	(0.011)	(0.004)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.012)
Labor
Worsening economy	0.038^***	0.026^***	0.040^***	0.021^***	0.041^***	0.021^**
	(0.006)	(0.009)	(0.003)	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.010)
Bad time to find a job	0.019^***	−0.019^**	0.016^***	−0.024^***	0.014^**	0.003
	(0.005)	(0.008)	(0.003)	(0.005)	(0.006)	(0.010)
No get ahead by working hard	0.048^***	0.019^*	0.036^***	0.018^***	0.073^***	0.029^***
	(0.007)	(0.011)	(0.004)	(0.006)	(0.007)	(0.009)
Unemployed	0.044^***	0.031^**	0.035^***	0.016^**	0.038^***	0.028^**
	(0.008)	(0.012)	(0.004)	(0.006)	(0.010)	(0.012)
Out of workforce	−0.010^*	−0.048^***	−0.006^*	−0.033^***	0.006	−0.032^***
	(0.005)	(0.009)	(0.003)	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.011)

Number of countries	22	22	75	75	42	42
Observations	52,761	15,141	141,036	37,005	35,005	7,547

Sensitivity tests across different subsamples, selected results

Panel A: Sample restricted to the period 2010–2012
Country grouping	Developing		Emerging		Developed
Dependent variable	Desire	Plan	Desire	Plan	Desire	Plan
High education	0.012	0.094^***	0.053^***	0.018	0.006	0.052^**
	(0.026)	(0.029)	(0.008)	(0.011)	(0.017)	(0.024)
Worsening economy	0.030^***	0.012	0.035^***	0.031^***	0.042^***	0.034^**
	(0.009)	(0.013)	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.010)	(0.014)
Bad time to find a job	0.014^*	−0.006	0.009^*	−0.034^***	0.003	−0.011
	(0.008)	(0.012)	(0.005)	(0.007)	(0.010)	(0.016)
No get ahead by working hard	0.040^***	0.012	0.029^***	0.003	0.059^***	0.021
	(0.011)	(0.016)	(0.006)	(0.008)	(0.010)	(0.013)
Unemployed	0.048^***	0.027	0.027^***	0.019^**	0.035^**	0.020
	(0.012)	(0.017)	(0.006)	(0.009)	(0.015)	(0.019)

Number of countries	22	22	75	75	42	42
Observations	21,828	7,272	63,594	18,224	15,290	3,413

Summary statistics

	Total(N = 228,802)		Stayers(N = 154,649)		Desire(N = 74,153)		Plan(N = 10,151)
	Mean	SD	Mean	SD	Mean	SD	Mean	SD
Desire	0.324	0.468	–	–	–	–	–	–
Plan	–	–	–	–	0.169	0.375	–	–
Female	0.521	0.5	0.539	0.498	0.482	0.5	0.442	0.497
Married	0.408	0.491	0.449	0.497	0.322	0.467	0.311	0.463
Age (25–34)	0.514	0.5	0.541	0.498	0.459	0.498	0.478	0.5
Have kid(s)	0.649	0.477	0.655	0.475	0.637	0.481	0.662	0.473
Urban	0.371	0.483	0.355	0.479	0.405	0.491	0.435	0.496
Poor health	0.149	0.356	0.149	0.356	0.149	0.356	0.174	0.379
Medium education	0.569	0.495	0.552	0.497	0.605	0.489	0.583	0.493
High education	0.126	0.332	0.127	0.333	0.123	0.328	0.127	0.333
Lack of food/shelter	0.437	0.496	0.41	0.492	0.492	0.5	0.542	0.498
Difficult living on present income	0.428	0.495	0.407	0.491	0.472	0.499	0.49	0.5
No improvement in living standards	0.218	0.413	0.194	0.396	0.267	0.443	0.291	0.454
No opportunity to meet people	0.24	0.427	0.222	0.416	0.278	0.448	0.299	0.458
No help from friends/relatives	0.818	0.386	0.817	0.387	0.821	0.383	0.793	0.405
Discontent with local amenities	0.283	0.45	0.227	0.419	0.399	0.49	0.453	0.498
Discontent with education system	0.38	0.485	0.345	0.476	0.451	0.498	0.492	0.5
No trust in national government	0.51	0.5	0.461	0.498	0.613	0.487	0.615	0.487
Corruption in government	0.805	0.396	0.782	0.413	0.853	0.354	0.86	0.347
Worsening economy	0.337	0.473	0.291	0.454	0.434	0.496	0.47	0.499
Bad time to find a job	0.608	0.488	0.577	0.494	0.673	0.469	0.664	0.472
No get ahead by working hard	0.158	0.365	0.139	0.345	0.199	0.399	0.21	0.407
Unemployed	0.11	0.313	0.097	0.296	0.137	0.344	0.171	0.376
Out of workforce	0.35	0.477	0.352	0.478	0.345	0.475	0.295	0.456

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What Drives Youth’s Intention to Migrate Abroad? Evidence from International Survey Data

Online veröffentlicht: 16. Juli 2020

Seitenbereich: -

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/izajodm-2020-0012

Schlüsselwörter
migration, intention to migrate, youth, labor market, brain drain

© 2020 Santo Milasi, published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Figure 1

Figure 2

Youth (15–34) desire/plan to migrate abroad, 2010–2012, full results corresponding to Panel A of Table 3

Youth (15–34) desire/plan to migrate abroad, 2013–2016, full results corresponding to Panel B of Table 3

Employed youth desire/plan to migrate abroad

Youth (15–34) desire/plan to migrate abroad in country samples including and excluding Top 15 refugee-sending countries, full results corresponding to Panel C of Table 3

Employed adults (35–64) desire/plan to migrate abroad, full regression results corresponding to Panel B of Table 4

Description of GWP questions underlying main explanatory variables

Adults (35–64) desire/plan to migrate abroad, full regression results corresponding to Panel A of Table 4

Adults desire/plan to migrate abroad, selected results

Youth (15–34) desire/plan to migrate abroad

Sensitivity tests across different subsamples, selected results

Summary statistics

What Drives Youth’s Intention to Migrate Abroad? Evidence from International Survey Data

Online veröffentlicht: 16. Juli 2020

Seitenbereich: -

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/izajodm-2020-0012

Schlüsselwörtermigration, intention to migrate, youth, labor market, brain drain

© 2020 Santo Milasi, published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Figure 1

Figure 2

Youth (15–34) desire/plan to migrate abroad, 2010–2012, full results corresponding to Panel A of Table 3

Youth (15–34) desire/plan to migrate abroad, 2013–2016, full results corresponding to Panel B of Table 3

Employed youth desire/plan to migrate abroad

Youth (15–34) desire/plan to migrate abroad in country samples including and excluding Top 15 refugee-sending countries, full results corresponding to Panel C of Table 3

Employed adults (35–64) desire/plan to migrate abroad, full regression results corresponding to Panel B of Table 4

Description of GWP questions underlying main explanatory variables

Adults (35–64) desire/plan to migrate abroad, full regression results corresponding to Panel A of Table 4

Adults desire/plan to migrate abroad, selected results

Youth (15–34) desire/plan to migrate abroad

Sensitivity tests across different subsamples, selected results

Summary statistics

Schlüsselwörter
migration, intention to migrate, youth, labor market, brain drain