Merchandise trade of the unrecognized entities in West Asia. The gravity model of trade, including Abkhazia and South Ossetia
| 31. März 2023
Über diesen Artikel
Article Category: Empirical Paper
Online veröffentlicht: 31. März 2023
Seitenbereich: 57 - 69
Eingereicht: 18. Mai 2022
Akzeptiert: 14. Dez. 2022
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ijme-2022-0029
Schlüsselwörter
© 2023 Magdalena Suska, published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Figure 1
![GDP in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, in 2015–2020 (in millions USD).Note: The exchange rates of Russian rubbles against US dollars were calculated based on World Bank [2022].Source: own elaboration based on Ugsra.org [2020]; Ugosstat.ru [2020].](https://sciendo-parsed.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/6471f9f7215d2f6c89db748c/j_ijme-2022-0029_fig_001.jpg?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Date=20240529T082831Z&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Expires=18000&X-Amz-Credential=AKIA6AP2G7AKP25APDM2%2F20240529%2Feu-central-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Signature=d553c47d1b71827559178dcf5d79067a829687202095550b176b419275784155)
Figure 2
![Abkhazia's and South Ossetia's merchandise trade, in 2015–2020 (in million USD).Note: The latest available data concerning South Ossetia's trade come from 2016.Source: own elaboration based on Ugsra.org [2020]; Ugosstat.ru [2020].](https://sciendo-parsed.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/6471f9f7215d2f6c89db748c/j_ijme-2022-0029_fig_002.jpg?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Date=20240529T082831Z&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Expires=18000&X-Amz-Credential=AKIA6AP2G7AKP25APDM2%2F20240529%2Feu-central-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Signature=8bdf683c9fe469b1565580172cb6858012982c185cb1a36b75ddda9b6d64603b)
Figure 3
![Russia's trade with Abkhazia and South Ossetia, in 2015–2020 (in million USD).Source: own elaboration based on Ru-Stat [2022].](https://sciendo-parsed.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/6471f9f7215d2f6c89db748c/j_ijme-2022-0029_fig_003.jpg?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Date=20240529T082831Z&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Expires=18000&X-Amz-Credential=AKIA6AP2G7AKP25APDM2%2F20240529%2Feu-central-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Signature=63d598d7252fd7a00fd8f994aebf6f555d681678913959e6c89be0c75c480183)
Figure 4
![Main commodity groups traded between Russia and Abkhazia in 2015 and 2020 (in%).Source: own elaboration based on Ru-Stat [2022].](https://sciendo-parsed.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/6471f9f7215d2f6c89db748c/j_ijme-2022-0029_fig_004.jpg?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Date=20240529T082831Z&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Expires=18000&X-Amz-Credential=AKIA6AP2G7AKP25APDM2%2F20240529%2Feu-central-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Signature=86d02a9db33d5cdff977eec71cf33ad6b2e82d19648dbfd4f9e79884372da69f)
Figure 5
![Main commodity groups traded between Russia and South Ossetia in 2015 and 2020 (in%).Source: own elaboration based on Ru-Stat [2022].](https://sciendo-parsed.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/6471f9f7215d2f6c89db748c/j_ijme-2022-0029_fig_005.jpg?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Date=20240529T082831Z&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Expires=18000&X-Amz-Credential=AKIA6AP2G7AKP25APDM2%2F20240529%2Feu-central-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Signature=53d6da6664dbc0478a686287bb5f623d33955bb52ac8b867770e02e5389e5a45)
Dependent variables of the gravity model of trade
| Variable | Description of the variable | Source of the data |
|---|---|---|
| GDP | Gross domestic product which determines the size of the exporter and importer, measured in current prices, in USD | World Bank; |
| Distance (D) | Determining the geographical distance between the capitals of a given pair of countries, measured in kilo meter | CEPII; |
| Contiguity | Dummy variable taking the value of 1 for the neighboring countries and 0 otherwise | Geographical atlas |
| Common language | Dummy variable taking the value of 1, when the residents of both countries speak the same official language and 0 otherwise | Different sources (CEPII; |
| Colonial link | Dummy variable taking the value of 1, when countries historically have trade relations or common statehood and 0 otherwise | Different sources (CEPII) |
| RTA/FTA | Dummy variable taking the value of 1, when countries have signed a free or a regional trade agreement and 0 otherwise | Different sources (WTO) |
| Common currency | Dummy variable taking the value of 1, when countries have the common value and 0 otherwise | Different sources ( |
Gravity model; the actual and potential structure of Georgia’s trade in 2017
| Trading partners | Actual exports (in millions USD) | Actual imports (in millions USD) | Potential exports (in millions USD) | Potential exports divided by actual exports | Actual share of the trading partner (%) | Potential share of the trading partner (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia | 396.672 | 786.867 | 499.818 | 1.3 | 25.7 | 15.7 |
| Turkey | 216.674 | 1,373.739 | 239.187 | 1.1 | 14.1 | 7.5 |
| Armenia | 210.276 | 281.322 | 693.842 | 3.3 | 13.6 | 21.7 |
| Azerbaijan | 272.15 | 567.034 | 298.045 | 1.1 | 17.7 | 9.3 |
| Iran | 76.351 | 105.194 | 67.238 | 0.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 |
| Germany | 45.657 | 434.153 | 216.858 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 6.8 |
| China | 201.702 | 732.946 | 30.333 | 0.2 | 13.1 | 0.9 |
| USA | 121.796 | 268.262 | 56.783 | 0.5 | 7.9 | 1.8 |
| Abkhazia | - | - | 304.980 | - | - | 9.6 |
| South Ossetia | - | - | 786.226 | - | - | 24.6 |
| Total | 1,541.278 | 4,549.517 | 3,193. 31 | 13.1 | 100 | 100 |
Gravity model; the actual and potential structure of South Ossetia’s trade in 2017
| Trading partners | Actual exports (in million USD) | Actual imports (in million USD) | Potential exports (in million USD) | Potential exports divided by actual exports | Actual share of the trading partner (%) | Potential share of the trading partner (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia | 9.470 | 30.422 | 386.246 | 40.8 | 100 | 27.2 |
| Turkey | - | - | 36.939 | - | - | 2.6 |
| Armenia | - | - | 60.817 | - | - | 4.3 |
| Azerbaijan | - | - | 29.496 | - | - | 2.1 |
| Iran | - | - | 21.807 | - | - | 1.5 |
| Germany | - | - | 55.105 | - | - | 3.9 |
| China | - | - | 5.896 | - | - | 0.4 |
| USA | - | - | 19.575 | - | - | 1.4 |
| Georgia | - | - | 677.388 | - | - | 47.8 |
| Abkhazia | - | - | 124.991 | - | - | 8.8 |
| Total | 9.470 | 30.422 | 1,418.26 | 40.8 | 100 | 100 |
Gravity model; the actual and potential structure of Abkhazia’s trade in 2017
| Trading partners | Actual exports (in millions USD) | Actual imports (in millions USD) | Potential exports (in millions USD) | Potential exports divided by actual exports | Actual share of the trading partner (%) | Potential share of the trading partner (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia | 53.371 | 217.550 | 1,061.295 | 19.9 | 91.8 | 60.7 |
| Turkey | 4.740 | 12.270 | 64.796 | 13.7 | 8.2 | 3.7 |
| Armenia | - | 1.616 | 48.291 | - | - | 2.8 |
| Azerbaijan | - | - | 28.653 | - | - | 1.6 |
| Iran | - | - | 24.959 | - | - | 1.4 |
| Germany | - | - | 77.343 | - | - | 4.4 |
| China | - | 5.713 | 8.039 | - | - | 0.5 |
| USA | - | - | 28.113 | - | - | 1.6 |
| Georgia | - | - | 275.957 | - | - | 15.8 |
| South Ossetia | - | - | 131.400 | - | - | 7.5 |
| Total | 58.111 | 237.149 | 1,748.846 | 33.6 | 100 | 100 |