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Who is Most Vulnerable? Exploring Job Vulnerability, Social Distancing and Demand During COVID-19


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Figure 1

Data Collection Process
Data Collection Process

Figure 2

Vulnerable jobs by occupation, two metre and one metre social distancing requirements: Top ten occupations, NI, June 2020Note: Figure 2 illustrates vulnerability reduction from 260,000 to 230,000 jobs including both social distancing and demand reductions
Vulnerable jobs by occupation, two metre and one metre social distancing requirements: Top ten occupations, NI, June 2020Note: Figure 2 illustrates vulnerability reduction from 260,000 to 230,000 jobs including both social distancing and demand reductions

Figure 3

Vulnerable jobs by sector, two metre and one metre social distancing requirements: Top ten sectors, NI, June 2020
Vulnerable jobs by sector, two metre and one metre social distancing requirements: Top ten sectors, NI, June 2020

Figure 4

Reduction in job vulnerabilities as a result of reducing social distancing requirements from 2-metre to 1-metre: Top ten occupations, June 2020, NI.Please note that figure 4 illustrates vulnerability reduction from 260,000 to 230,000 jobs when including both social distancing and demand reductions.
Reduction in job vulnerabilities as a result of reducing social distancing requirements from 2-metre to 1-metre: Top ten occupations, June 2020, NI.Please note that figure 4 illustrates vulnerability reduction from 260,000 to 230,000 jobs when including both social distancing and demand reductions.

Figure 5

Reduction in job vulnerabilities as a result of reducing social distancing requirements from 2-metre to 1-metre: Top ten sectors, NI, June 2020
Reduction in job vulnerabilities as a result of reducing social distancing requirements from 2-metre to 1-metre: Top ten sectors, NI, June 2020

Figure 6

Top 10 vulnerable occupations by impact at 1-metre and 2-metre social distancing, June 2020, NI
Top 10 vulnerable occupations by impact at 1-metre and 2-metre social distancing, June 2020, NI

Figure 7

Top 10 vulnerable sectors by impact at 1-metre and 2-metre social distancing, June 2020, NI
Top 10 vulnerable sectors by impact at 1-metre and 2-metre social distancing, June 2020, NI

Figure 8

Job vulnerability by qualification level
Job vulnerability by qualification level

Figure 9

Reduction in job vulnerability by share of qualifications below level 2 NQF, central scenario
Reduction in job vulnerability by share of qualifications below level 2 NQF, central scenario

Figure 10

Job vulnerability by age band
Job vulnerability by age band

Figure 11

Vulnerable jobs by salary band: 1-metre and 2-metre social distancing requirements
Vulnerable jobs by salary band: 1-metre and 2-metre social distancing requirements

Figure 12

Top 10 vulnerable occupations by gender
Top 10 vulnerable occupations by gender

Figure 13

Top 10 vulnerable sectors by gender
Top 10 vulnerable sectors by gender

Figure 14

Top 10 vulnerable occupations by full-time, part-time
Top 10 vulnerable occupations by full-time, part-time

Figure 15

Top 10 vulnerable sectors by full-time, part-time
Top 10 vulnerable sectors by full-time, part-time

Figure 16

Vulnerable jobs by council area as share of employment at both 2-metre and 1-metre social distancing
Vulnerable jobs by council area as share of employment at both 2-metre and 1-metre social distancing

Figure 17

Reduction in vulnerable jobs as share of total by council area
Reduction in vulnerable jobs as share of total by council area

Baseline demand impacts, on the basis of a central scenario, accounting for demand at one metre social distancing, two metre social distancing and whether the job is carried out on a part-time or full-time basis

Social Distance Requirement 2-metres 1-metre
Sector FT PT FT PT
01 Crop and animal production, hunting and related service activities 0% 0% 0% 0%

02 Forestry and logging 0% 0% 0% 0%

03 Fishing and aquaculture 0% 0% 0% 0%

05 Mining of coal and lignite −25% −25% −25% −25%

06 Extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas −25% −25% −25% −25%

07 Mining of metal ores −25% −25% −25% −25%

08 Other mining and quarrying −25% −25% −25% −25%

09 Mining support service activities −25% −25% −25% −25%

10 Manufacture of food products 5% 10% 5% 10%

11 Manufacture of beverages 5% 10% 5% 10%

12 Manufacture of tobacco products −40% −40% −40% −40%

13 Manufacture of textiles −40% −40% −40% −40%

14 Manufacture of wearing apparel −40% −40% −40% −40%

15 Manufacture of leather and related products −40% −40% −40% −40%

16 Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture; manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials −40% −40% −40% −40%

17 Manufacture of paper and paper products −40% −40% −40% −40%

18 Printing and reproduction of recorded media −40% −40% −40% −40%

19 Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products −40% −40% −40% −40%

20 Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products −40% −40% −40% −40%

21 Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations −40% −40% −40% −40%

22 Manufacture of rubber and plastic products −40% −40% −40% −40%

23 Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products −40% −40% −40% −40%

24 Manufacture of basic metals −40% −40% −40% −40%

25 Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment −40% −40% −40% −40%

26 Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products −40% −40% −40% −40%

27 Manufacture of electrical equipment −40% −40% −40% −40%

28 Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c. −40% −40% −40% −40%

29 Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers −40% −40% −40% −40%

30 Manufacture of other transport equipment −40% −40% −40% −40%

31 Manufacture of furniture −40% −40% −40% −40%

32 Other manufacturing −40% −40% −40% −40%

33 Repair and installation of machinery and equipment −40% −40% −40% −40%

35 Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply −5% −5% −5% −5%

36 Water collection, treatment and supply −5% −5% −5% −5%

37 Sewerage −5% −5% −5% −5%

38 Waste collection, treatment and disposal activities; materials recovery −5% −5% −5% −5%

39 Remediation activities and other waste management services −5% −5% −5% −5%

41 Construction of buildings −30% −50% −30% −50%

42 Civil engineering −30% −50% −30% −50%

43 Specialised construction activities −30% −50% −30% −50%

45 Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles −50% −50% −50% −50%

46 Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles −50% −50% −50% −50%

47 Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles −50% −50% −50% −50%

48 Wholesale and retail n.o.s. −50% −50% −50% −50%

49 Land transport and transport via pipelines −18% −18% −18% −18%

50 Water transport −18% −18% −18% −18%

51 Air transport −18% −18% −18% −18%

52 Warehousing and support activities for transportation −18% −18% −18% −18%

53 Postal and courier activities −18% −18% −18% −18%

55 Accommodation −66% −80% −40% −48%

56 Food and beverage service activities −66% −80% −40% −48%

58 Publishing activities −20% −20% −12% −12%

59 Motion picture, video and television programme production, sound recording and music publishing activities −20% −20% −12% −12%

60 Programming and broadcasting activities −20% −40% −20% −40%

61 Telecommunications −20% −20% −20% −20%

62 Computer programming, consultancy and related activities −20% −20% −20% −20%

63 Information service activities −20% −20% −20% −20%

64 Financial service activities, except insurance and pension funding −5% −5% −5% −5%

65 Insurance, reinsurance and pension funding, except compulsory social security −5% −5% −5% −5%

66 Activities auxiliary to financial services and insurance activities −5% −5% −5% −5%

68 Real estate activities −40% −40% −40% −40%

69 Legal and accounting activities −10% −10% −10% −10%

70 Activities of head offices; management consultancy activities −10% −10% −10% −10%

71 Architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis −10% −10% −10% −10%

72 Scientific research and development −10% −10% −10% −10%

73 Advertising and market research −10% −10% −10% −10%

74 Other professional; scientific and technical activities −10% −10% −10% −10%

75 Veterinary activities −10% −10% −10% −10%

77 Rental and leasing activities −20% −40% −20% −40%

78 Employment activities −20% −40% −20% −40%

79 Travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities −20% −40% −20% −40%

80 Security and investigation activities −20% −20% −20% −20%

81 Services to buildings and landscape activities −20% −20% −20% −20%

82 Office administrative, office support and other business support activities −20% −40% −20% −40%

84 Public administration and defence; compulsory social security 0% 0% 0% 0%

85 Education −5% −5% −5% −5%

86 Human health activities 10% 15% 10% 15%

87 Residential care activities 10% 15% 10% 15%

88 Social work activities without accommodation 10% 15% 10% 15%

90 Creative, arts and entertainment activities −45% −45% −27% −27%

91 Libraries, archives, museums and other cultural activities −45% −45% −27% −27%

92 Gambling and betting activities −45% −45% −27% −27%

93 Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities −45% −45% −27% −27%

94 Activities of membership organisations −40% −40% −24% −24%

95 Repair of computers and personal and household goods −40% −40% −24% −24%

96 Other personal service activities −40% −40% −24% −24%

97 Activities of households as employers of domestic personnel −50% −50% −30% −30%

98 Undifferentiated goods- and services-producing activities of private households for own use −50% −50% −30% −30%

99 Activities of extraterritorial organisations and bodies −30% −30% −18% −18%

Baseline Social Distancing impacts, by occupation. 1m Social Distancing

Occupation Risk level
Chief executives and senior officials Low
Elected officers and representatives Low
Production managers and directors in manufacturing Low
Production managers and directors in construction Low
Production managers and directors in mining and energy Low
Financial managers and directors Low
Marketing and sales directors Low
Purchasing managers and directors Low
Advertising and public relations directors Low
Human resource managers and directors Low
Information technology and telecommunications directors Low
Functional managers and directors n.e.c. Low
Financial institution managers and directors Low
Managers and directors in transport and distribution Low
Managers and directors in storage and warehousing Low
Officers in armed forces High
Senior police officers High
Senior officers in fire, ambulance, prison and related services High
Health services and public health managers and directors Medium
Social services managers and directors High
Managers and directors in retail and wholesale Low
Managers and proprietors in agriculture and horticulture Low
Managers and proprietors in forestry, fishing and related services Low
Hotel and accommodation managers and proprietors Medium
Restaurant and catering establishment managers and proprietors High
Publicans and managers of licensed premises High
Leisure and sports managers High
Travel agency managers and proprietors Medium
Health care practice managers Medium
Residential, day and domiciliary care managers and proprietors High
Property, housing and estate managers Medium
Garage managers and proprietors Low
Hairdressing and beauty salon managers and proprietors High
Shopkeepers and proprietors: wholesale and retail High
Waste disposal and environmental services managers Low
Managers and proprietors in other services n.e.c. High
Chemical scientists Low
Biological scientists and biochemists Low
Physical scientists Low
Social and humanities scientists Low
Natural and social science professionals n.e.c. Low
Civil engineers Low
Mechanical engineers Low
Electrical engineers Low
Electronics engineers Low
Design and development engineers Low
Production and process engineers Low
Engineering professionals n.e.c. Low
IT specialist managers Low
IT project and programme managers Low
IT business analysts, architects and systems designers Low
Programmers and software development professionals Low
Web design and development professionals Low
Information technology and telecommunications professionals n.e.c. Low
Conservation professionals High
Environment professionals Low
Research and development managers Medium
Medical practitioners High
Psychologists High
Pharmacists High
Ophthalmic opticians High
Dental practitioners High
Veterinarians High
Medical radiographers High
Podiatrists High
Health professionals n.e.c. High
Physiotherapists High
Occupational therapists High
Speech and language therapists High
Therapy professionals n.e.c. High
Nurses High
Midwives High
Higher education teaching professionals Low
Further education teaching professionals High
Secondary education teaching professionals Medium
Primary and nursery education teaching professionals High
Special needs education teaching professionals High
Senior professionals of educational establishments High
Education advisers and school inspectors High
Teaching and other educational professionals n.e.c. High
Barristers and judges High
Solicitors Medium
Legal professionals n.e.c. Low
Chartered and certified accountants Low
Management consultants and business analysts Low
Business and financial project management professionals Low
Actuaries, economists and statisticians Low
Business and related research professionals Low
Business, research and administrative professionals n.e.c. Low
Architects Low
Town planning officers High
Quantity surveyors Medium
Chartered surveyors Medium
Chartered architectural technologists Low
Construction project managers and related professionals Low
Social workers High
Probation officers High
Clergy High
Welfare professionals n.e.c. High
Librarians High
Archivists and curators Medium
Quality control and planning engineers Low
Quality assurance and regulatory professionals Low
Environmental health professionals Low
Journalists, newspaper and periodical editors Medium
Public relations professionals Medium
Advertising accounts managers and creative directors High
Laboratory technicians High
Electrical and electronics technicians Low
Engineering technicians Medium
Building and civil engineering technicians Medium
Quality assurance technicians Low
Planning, process and production technicians Low
Science, engineering and production technicians n.e.c. Low
Architectural and town planning technicians High
Draughtspersons Low
IT operations technicians Low
IT user support technicians Low
Paramedics High
Dispensing opticians High
Pharmaceutical technicians High
Medical and dental technicians High
Health associate professionals n.e.c. High
Youth and community workers High
Child and early years officers High
Housing officers High
Counsellors High
Welfare and housing associate professionals n.e.c. High
NCOs and other ranks High
Police officers (sergeant and below) High
Fire service officers (watch manager and below) High
Prison service officers (below principal officer) High
Police community support officers High
Protective service associate professionals n.e.c. High
Artists Low
Authors, writers and translators Low
Actors, entertainers and presenters High
Dancers and choreographers High
Musicians High
Arts officers, producers and directors Medium
Photographers, audio-visual and broadcasting equipment operators Low
Graphic designers Low
Product, clothing and related designers Low
Sports players Medium
Sports coaches, instructors and officials Medium
Fitness instructors High
Air traffic controllers High
Aircraft pilots and flight engineers High
Ship and hovercraft officers High
Legal associate professionals Low
Estimators, valuers and assessors Low
Brokers Low
Insurance underwriters Low
Finance and investment analysts and advisers Low
Taxation experts High
Importers and exporters Low
Financial and accounting technicians Low
Financial accounts managers Low
Business and related associate professionals n.e.c. Low
Buyers and procurement officers Low
Business sales executives Medium
Marketing associate professionals Low
Estate agents and auctioneers High
Sales accounts and business development managers Low
Conference and exhibition managers and organisers High
Conservation and environmental associate professionals High
Public services associate professionals Low
Human resources and industrial relations officers Low
Vocational and industrial trainers and instructors Medium
Careers advisers and vocational guidance specialists High
Inspectors of standards and regulations Low
Health and safety officers Medium
National government administrative occupations Low
Local government administrative occupations Low
Officers of non-governmental organisations Low
Credit controllers Low
Book-keepers, payroll managers and wages clerks Low
Bank and post office clerks High
Finance officers High
Financial administrative occupations n.e.c. Medium
Records clerks and assistants Low
Pensions and insurance clerks and assistants Low
Stock control clerks and assistants High
Transport and distribution clerks and assistants High
Library clerks and assistants High
Human resources administrative occupations Low
Sales administrators High
Other administrative occupations n.e.c. Low
Office managers High
Office supervisors Low
Medical secretaries High
Legal secretaries Low
School secretaries High
Company secretaries Medium
Personal assistants and other secretaries Medium
Receptionists High
Typists and related keyboard occupations Medium
Farmers Low
Horticultural trades Low
Gardeners and landscape gardeners Medium
Groundsmen and greenkeepers Low
Agricultural and fishing trades n.e.c. Low
Smiths and forge workers High
Moulders, core makers and die casters Low
Sheet metal workers Low
Metal plate workers, and riveters Low
Welding trades Low
Pipe fitters Low
Metal machining setters and setter-operators Low
Tool makers, tool fitters and markers-out Low
Metal working production and maintenance fitters Low
Precision instrument makers and repairers Low
Air-conditioning and refrigeration engineers High
Vehicle technicians, mechanics and electricians High
Vehicle body builders and repairers Low
Vehicle paint technicians Low
Aircraft maintenance and related trades Low
Boat and ship builders and repairers Low
Rail and rolling stock builders and repairers Medium
Electricians and electrical fitters Medium
Telecommunications engineers High
TV, video and audio engineers Medium
IT engineers Low
Electrical and electronic trades n.e.c. Medium
Skilled metal, electrical and electronic trades supervisors Low
Steel erectors Low
Bricklayers and masons Low
Roofers, roof tilers and slaters Low
Plumbers and heating and ventilating engineers High
Carpenters and joiners Low
Glaziers, window fabricators and fitters Medium
Construction and building trades n.e.c. Medium
Plasterers Medium
Floorers and wall tilers Low
Painters and decorators Low
Construction and building trades supervisors High
Weavers and knitters Low
Upholsterers Low
Footwear and leather working trades Low
Tailors and dressmakers Medium
Textiles, garments and related trades n.e.c. Low
Pre-press technicians Low
Printers Low
Print finishing and binding workers Low
Butchers High
Bakers and flour confectioners Low
Fishmongers and poultry dressers Medium
Chefs High
Cooks Medium
Catering and bar managers High
Glass and ceramics makers, decorators and finishers Low
Furniture makers and other craft woodworkers Low
Florists High
Other skilled trades n.e.c. Low
Nursery nurses and assistants Low
Childminders and related occupations High
Playworkers High
Teaching assistants High
Educational support assistants High
Veterinary nurses High
Pest control officers High
Animal care services occupations n.e.c. High
Nursing auxiliaries and assistants High
Ambulance staff (excluding paramedics) High
Dental nurses High
Houseparents and residential wardens High
Care workers and home carers High
Senior care workers High
Care escorts High
Undertakers, mortuary and crematorium assistants High
Sports and leisure assistants High
Travel agents Medium
Air travel assistants High
Rail travel assistants Low
Leisure and travel service occupations n.e.c. High
Hairdressers and barbers High
Beauticians and related occupations High
Housekeepers and related occupations High
Caretakers High
Cleaning and housekeeping managers and supervisors High
Sales and retail assistants High
Retail cashiers and check-out operators High
Telephone salespersons Low
Pharmacy and other dispensing assistants High
Vehicle and parts salespersons and advisers High
Collector salespersons and credit agents Low
Debt, rent and other cash collectors High
Roundspersons and van salespersons Low
Market and street traders and assistants High
Merchandisers and window dressers Medium
Sales related occupations n.e.c. High
Sales supervisors Medium
Call and contact centre occupations Low
Telephonists High
Communication operators Low
Market research interviewers Low
Customer service occupations n.e.c. Medium
Customer service managers and supervisors Medium
Food, drink and tobacco process operatives Low
Glass and ceramics process operatives Low
Textile process operatives Low
Chemical and related process operatives Low
Rubber process operatives Low
Plastics process operatives Low
Metal making and treating process operatives Low
Electroplaters Low
Process operatives n.e.c. Low
Paper and wood machine operatives Low
Coal mine operatives Low
Quarry workers and related operatives Low
Energy plant operatives Low
Metal working machine operatives Low
Water and sewerage plant operatives High
Printing machine assistants Low
Plant and machine operatives n.e.c. Low
Assemblers (electrical and electronic products) Low
Assemblers (vehicles and metal goods) Low
Routine inspectors and testers Low
Weighers, graders and sorters Low
Tyre, exhaust and windscreen fitters High
Sewing machinists Low
Assemblers and routine operatives n.e.c. Low
Scaffolders, stagers and riggers Low
Road construction operatives Medium
Rail construction and maintenance operatives Medium
Construction operatives n.e.c. Low
Large goods vehicle drivers Low
Van drivers Medium
Bus and coach drivers High
Taxi and cab drivers and chauffeurs High
Driving instructors Medium
Crane drivers Low
Fork-lift truck drivers Low
Agricultural machinery drivers Low
Mobile machine drivers and operatives n.e.c. Low
Train and tram drivers Low
Marine and waterways transport operatives Medium
Air transport operatives High
Rail transport operatives Low
Other drivers and transport operatives n.e.c. Low
Farm workers Low
Forestry workers High
Fishing and other elementary agriculture occupations n.e.c. High
Elementary construction occupations Low
Industrial cleaning process occupations Low
Packers, bottlers, canners and fillers Low
Elementary process plant occupations n.e.c. Low
Postal workers, mail sorters, messengers and couriers High
Elementary administration occupations n.e.c. High
Window cleaners High
Street cleaners High
Cleaners and domestics High
Launderers, dry cleaners and pressers High
Refuse and salvage occupations High
Vehicle valeters and cleaners Low
Elementary cleaning occupations n.e.c. High
Security guards and related occupations High
Parking and civil enforcement occupations High
School midday and crossing patrol occupations High
Elementary security occupations n.e.c. High
Shelf fillers Medium
Elementary sales occupations n.e.c. Medium
Elementary storage occupations Low
Hospital porters High
Kitchen and catering assistants Medium
Waiters and waitresses High
Bar staff High
Leisure and theme park attendants High
Other elementary services occupations n.e.c. High

Distributional vulnerabilities of COVID-19, 2-metre and 1-metre

Category Most Vulnerable group / area 2-Metre % of group 1-Metre % of group
Occupation Elementary Admin’ & services

Figures refer to proportion of employees in the sector

40,000 – 50,000 56 – 69% 30,000 – 40,000 46 – 56%
Sector Wholesale & retail 65,000 – 80,000 48 – 57% 60,000 – 75,000 46 – 54%
Qualification Below level 2 NQF 70,000 – 80,000 39 – 45% 60,000 – 70,000 34 – 40%
Age 16 – 24-year-olds 40,000 – 45,000 36 – 43% 30,000 –40,000 32 – 38%
Income <£15,000 per annum 65,000 – 80,000 32 – 41% 55,000 – 70,000 29 – 36%
Gender Males 145,000 – 150,000 32 – 34% 130,000 – 145,000 29 – 33%
Council Area Mid Ulster 19,000 – 22,000 30 – 34% 17,000 – 20,000 27 – 31%
Part-Time / Full-Time Part-Time 65,000 – 80,000 30 – 37% 55,000 – 70,000 26 – 32%

Total 240,000 – 280,000 27 – 33% 215,000 – 250,000 24 – 29%

Methodological approach to estimating labour market vulnerability in NI

Section Baseline Occupational Data Social Distancing impacts Demand-side impacts
Data collection - US Department of LaborO*NET Occupations data- ONS LFS 4 -digit Occupational Data-ONS SIC-SOC Matrix - US Department for Labor O*NET Occupational characteristics- ONS BICS- ONS Essential workers analysis - McKinsey & Co. industrial analysis of demand-side impacts- OBR

Office for Budget Responsibility (2020), which produces outlooks for the UK Economy. In March 2020, they released a ‘Coronavirus Reference Scenario’ which forecasted GDP losses across the UK sectors.

Coronavirus Reference Scenario GVA Forecasts- ONS BICS- Ulster University Economic Forecasting Model- Ulster University Economic Policy Centre Labour market assessments (Magill & McPeake, 2020)
Method for analysis - Creation of a baseline labour market model- Aggregating 360 UK sub-occupations to 11 major occupational groups- Disaggregation on the basis of male, female, part-time, full-time, at the 3-digit level- Disaggregation on the basis of qualifications, wages at 2-digit level - US Occupations transposed to UK Occupations using ONS reclassification- Standardised score out of 100, taking weighted average of ‘proximity’, ‘exposure to disease’ and ‘working with others’ scores- Score < 55 = ‘low risk’ Score => 55 =< 65 = ‘medium risk’ Score > 65 = ‘high risk’ - Standardised demand-side impacts applied to 2-digit sectors in NI- Impacts filtered through SIC-SOC matrix to determine impact across occupations- Filtered across demographics including gender, age and levels of formal qualification
Results - Measured as share of workers in an occupation vulnerable to social-distancing. Impact was reported according to high, medium and low risk - Measured as a share of workers in an occupation vulnerable to demand-side impacts, based on sectoral forecasts

Social Distancing Workforce Impact

Share of Workforce Impacted
Distance Low risk Medium risk High risk
2-metres 10% 40% 90%
1-metre 10% 30% 60%