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A micro-analysis of Irish firm deaths during the financial crisis (2006–2010)

Bernadette Power
Bernadette Power
, 
Geraldine Ryan
Geraldine Ryan
 und 
Justin Doran
Justin Doran
   | 22. Aug. 2020
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Article Category: Research Article
Online veröffentlicht: 22. Aug. 2020
Seitenbereich: 1 - 16
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ijm-2010-0004
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© 2020 Bernadette Power et al., published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Figure 1

Percentage of Enterprise Deaths by Cohort during the Financial Crisis
Percentage of Enterprise Deaths by Cohort during the Financial Crisis

Figure 2

Non-parametric hazard function
Non-parametric hazard function

Figure 3

Size Distribution of Deaths in each Cohort during the Financial Crisis (%)
Size Distribution of Deaths in each Cohort during the Financial Crisis (%)

Figure 4

Sectorial Distribution of Deaths in each Cohort during the Financial Crisis (%)
Sectorial Distribution of Deaths in each Cohort during the Financial Crisis (%)

Figure 5

Regional Distribution of Deaths in each Cohort during the Financial Crisis (%)
Regional Distribution of Deaths in each Cohort during the Financial Crisis (%)

Estimates of Cox Proportional Hazard Model across cohorts (with Efron correction for ties)

Before 1980 1980–1989 1990–1999 2000–2005 2006–2010 Full Sample
Parameter I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII
Zero employees (dummy) 2.8070*** (0.2336) 2.8000*** (0.2944) 2.5559*** (0.1243) 2.7103*** (0.1802) 2.2888*** (0.0633) 2.3643*** (0.0950) 1.8708*** (0.0604) 1.7485*** (0.0837) 1.5619*** (0.0522) 1.4044*** (0.0757) 2.3399*** (0.0319) 2.3515*** (0.0456)
1–4 employees (dummy) 2.3839*** (0.2267) 2.2396*** (0.2806) 2.0433*** (0.1182) 2.0209*** (0.1676) 1.8728*** (0.0613) 1.9320*** (0.0907) 1.5236*** (0.0591) 1.4739*** (0.0813) 1.4025*** (0.0515) 1.2854*** (0.0741) 2.0167*** (0.0312) 1.9798*** (0.0443)
5–9 employees(dummy) 0.6038** (0.2901) 0.4123 (0.3647) 0.4429*** (0.1475) 0.5626*** (0.2052) 0.5546*** (0.0731) 0.6117*** (0.1067) 0.4683*** (0.0699) 0.4649*** (0.0941) 0.4088*** (0.0592) 0.4190*** (0.0840) 0.6365*** (0.0367) 0.6768*** (0.0514)
10–49 employees (reference)
50+ employees (dummy) −0.7813 (0.5476) −0.9160 (0.7595) −0.5952* (0.3534) −0.7864 (0.5282) −1.2315*** (0.2569) −1.6639*** (0.5082) −0.7745*** (0.2211) −0.5609* (0.2884) −1.1967*** (0.2479) −1.4514*** (0.4148) −1.1194*** (0.1248) −1.0761*** (0.1905)
Minimum efficient scale 0.5259* (0.2786) 0.2766 (0.4136) 0.4961*** (0.1286) −0.0704 (0.2357) 0.1682*** (0.0567) 0.1692* (0.0976) 0.3113*** (0.0472) 0.3809*** (0.0693) 0.3784*** (0.0333) 0.3543*** (0.0559) 0.3379*** (0.0240) 0.5294*** (0.0378)
Entry rate −0.0631 (0.0399) −0.0904 (0.0582) −0.0824*** (0.0184) −0.0441 (0.0332) −0.0624*** (0.0082) −0.0943*** (0.0147) −0.0389*** (0.0068) −0.0818*** (0.0116) −0.0582*** (0.0041) −0.0639*** (0.0077) −0.0146*** (0.0030) −0.0267*** (0.0054)
Sectorial growth 0.0059 (0.4335) −0.1751 (0.5975) −0.0008 (0.2698) −0.2557 (0.4520) −0.3820*** (0.1243) −0.7363*** (0.2161) −1.0207*** (0.0989) −1.2379*** (0.1529) −0.6106*** (0.0613) −0.6844*** (0.0961) −0.7563*** (0.0413) −0.9628*** (0.0628)
Entry size 0.1802* (0.1071) 0.2062 (0.1287) 0.1499*** (0.0424) 0.2648*** (0.0701) 0.1282*** (0.0202) 0.1738*** (0.0317) 0.1213*** (0.0235) 0.1853*** (0.0341) 0.1489*** (0.0149) 0.1329*** (0.0276) 0.1283*** (0.0102) 0.1194*** (0.0178)
Herfindahl Index −0.5713** (0.2641) −0.5779* (0.3366) 0.3506 0.2318) −0.0652 (0.4111) 0.3360*** (0.1119) 0.7006*** (0.1899) −0.1750** (0.0864) −0.2123* (0.1155) 0.1574*** (0.0611) 0.2390** (0.0961) 0.1419*** (0.0435) 0.2214*** (0.0643)
Entry and exit cost −0.2417*** (0.0701) −0.3151*** (0.1015) −0.2386*** (0.0304) −0.1392** (0.0584) −0.1917*** (0.0136) −0.2164*** (0.0260) −0.1575*** (0.0115) −0.2106*** (0.0199) −0.1906*** (0.0071) −0.2230*** (0.0132_ −0.2238*** (0.0052) −0.2657*** (0.0093)
Entry rate x sectorial growth −0.0191 (0.0541) 0.0169 (0.0888) 0.0276 (0.0357) 0.0551 (0.0660) 0.0679*** (0.0162) 0.1270*** (0.0314) 0.1175*** (0.0124) 0.3809*** (0.0693) 0.0521*** (0.0069) 0.0613*** (0.0118) 0.0798*** (0.0046) 0.1123** (0.0078)
Capital intensity −0.0305 (0.0349) −0.0108 (0.0475) −0.0284* (0.0158) 0.0278 (0.0260) −0.0019 (0.0069) 0.0011 (0.0122) −0.0063 (0.0059) −0.0818*** (0.0116) −0.0101*** (0.0040) −0.0257*** (0.0066) 0.0006 (0.0029) 0.0014 (0.0048)
Low technology/low knowledge services/other (reference)
High and medium/high technology (dummy) 0.2550 (0.3090) 0.0696 (0.4206) 0.4068** (0.1713) 0.5186** (0.2430) −0.0166 (0.1238) −0.1268 (0.2054) 0.1022 (0.1027) 0.1464 (0.1381) 0.0638 (0.0819) 0.1184 (0.1192) 0.0291 (0.0529) 0.0763 (0.0771)
Knowledge-intensive services (dummy) 0.0176 (0.1739) 0.0573 (0.2493) 0.0711 (0.0761) −0.1434 (0.1468) −0.0030 (0.0328) 0.0071 (0.0621) 0.0260 (0.0263) 0.0228 (0.0432) 0.0424** (0.0177) 0.0591* (0.0319) 0.0666*** (0.0130) 0.0986*** (0.0228)
Born pre-financial crisis (dummy) 0.1714*** (0.0098) 0.1348*** (0.0164) −1.4809*** (0.0099) −1.5047*** (0.0164)
Regional unemployment growth 0.0383 (0.1068) 0.1014 (0.2556) 0.0782 (0.0497) 0.2485** (0.1229) 0.0467** (0.0225) 0.0420 (0.0555) 0.0179 (0.0187) 0.0259 (0.0389) 0.0243* (0.0134) 0.0167 (0.0299) 0.0146 (0.0096) 0.0554*** (0.0213)
Urban (dummy) 0.0169 (0.0888) 0.0757 (0.0716) 0.0174 (0.0311) 0.0600*** (0.0225) 0.0620*** (0.0183) 0.0163 (0.0125)
Percentage at work 0.0136 (0.1250) −0.0061 (0.0065) 0.0032 (0.0029) −0.0002 (0.0021) −0.0017 (0.0016) 0.0042*** (0.0012)
Percentage with third-level education 0.0056 (0.0120) 0.0137 (0.0099) −0.0001 (0.0045) −0.0008 (0.0031) 0.0018 (0.0025) 0.0013 (0.0017)
Percentage working in agri forestry, fishing 0.0112 (0.0187) 0.0072 (0.0173) −0.0224*** (0.0080) −0.0143*** (0.0053) 0.0004 (0.0042) −0.0070** (0.0031)
Percentage working in construction −0.0040 (0.0308) 0.0042 (0.0099) 0.0067 (0.0043) 0.0027 (0.0031) 0.0032 (0.0025) 0.0100*** (0.0017)
Percentage working in manufacturing −0.0101 (0.0179) −0.0151** (0.0073) 0.0029 (0.0030) −0.0018 (0.0023) −0.0007 (0.0018) −0.0001 (0.0013)
Percentage working in commerce trade −0.0028 (0.0127) −0.0120 (0.0081) −0.0030 (0.0036) −0.0020 (0.0027) 0.0032 (0.0022) −0.0006 (0.0015)
Percentage working in transport commerce 0.0037 (0.0144) 0.0067 (0.0168) 0.0142 (0.0074) −0.0006 (0.0054) −0.0044 (0.0043) 0.0083*** (0.0030)
Percentage working in public administration 0.0271 (0.0310) 0.0128 (0.0121) −0.0026** (0.0060) −0.0129*** (0.0044) 0.0024 (0.0033) 0.0003 (0.0023)
Percentage working in professional services 0.0294 (0.0186) −0.0023 (0.0076) 0.0001 (0.0034) −0.0089*** (0.0025) −0.0039** (0.0020) −0.0038*** (0.0014)
Agriculture, fishing and extractive (dummy) −0.3651 (0.2263) −0.6301** (0.2871) 0.2061** (0.1006) −0.3567* (0.1875) 0.0806* (0.0490) −0.0224*** 0.0080 −0.1330** (0.0468) −0.3979*** (0.0794) −0.3221*** (0.0374) −0.4112*** (0.0678) −0.5427*** (0.0226) −0.5816*** (0.0420)
Manufacturing (reference)
Construction (dummy) −0.1958 (0.1876) −0.2187 (0.2517) 0.0676 (0.0982) 0.3564** (0.1561) 0.2832*** (0.0478) 0.4141*** 0.0739 0.2371*** (0.0375) 0.2828*** (0.0494) 0.1819*** (0.0288) 0.1182** (0.0440) 0.4709*** (0.0198) 0.4370*** (0.0284)
Wholesalers, retail and repair of motor vehicles (dummy) −0.5627*** (0.1575) −0.7999*** (0.2092) −0.0840 (0.0896) 0.0579 (0.1368) 0.0127 (0.0455) 0.0449 0.0689 0.0595 (0.0395) 0.0369 (0.0516) 0.0893*** (0.0291) 0.1573*** (0.0439) −0.0522*** (0.0200) −0.0840*** (0.0287)
Accommodation and food (dummy) −0.7694*** (0.1974) −0.8601*** (0.2443) −0.0701 (0.1041) 0.0356 (0.1543) 0.2204*** (0.0497) 0.2486*** 0.0733 0.1835*** (0.0491) 0.1258** (0.0633) 0.1629*** (0.0344) 0.1761** (0.0536) −0.0182 (0.0232) −0.1295*** (0.0332)
Professional, scientific, technical (dummy) −0.4876* (0.2607) −0.5067 (0.3590) −0.1712 (0.1194) 0.1905 (0.2119) −0.0812 (0.0565) −0.0512 0.0985 −0.1169** (0.0458) −0.0607 (0.0683) −0.1302*** (0.0336) −0.0933* (0.0551) −0.0789*** (0.0235) −0.0959** (0.0375)
Other services (dummy) −0.2750* (0.1654) −0.3281 (0.2142) 0.0048 (0.0884) 0.1095 (0.1367) −0.0205 (0.0439) − −0.0301 0.0664 −0.0451 (0.0366) −0.0996 (0.0472) −0.0515* (0.0278) −0.0371 (0.0420) −0.0119 (0.0191) −0.0582** (0.0273)
N 5258 3432 39310 14625 73212 32544 74299 42065 130832 37687 322911 130353
Event 753 479 4547 1440 21220 7649 25595 14136 51916 22328 104031 46032
2 LOG L (with covariates) 10847 6503 88314 24270 425889 142146 530876 277168 1142381 443823 2428677 1002415
Wald 405*** 282*** 1294*** 519*** 3637*** 1829 4045 *** 2477 *** 6737*** 2401*** 54276*** 24654 ***
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