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Non-Oil Tax Revenue and Infrastructural Development in Nigeria


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Cointegration test results

Test Statistic Value k
F-statistic 36.4926 7
Critical Value Bounds
Significance I(0) Bound I(1) Bound
10% 2.03 3.13
5% 2.32 3.5
2.5% 2.6 3.84
1% 2.96 4.26

ARDL Long-run estimate result

Long Run Coefficients
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
VAT 0.0002 0.0001 2.3601 0.0285
CUSTD 0.6426 0.3264 1.9568 0.0463
CIT 0.0002 0.0001 2.3203 0.0310
GOVTCE 0.5424 2.3260 0.2332 0.8180
ECONG −0.0042 0.0392 −0.1067 0.9161
OILR 0.5275 0.4874 1.0824 0.2919
DEBT −0.0383 0.0146 −2.6275 0.0116
C 1896.62 232.34 8.1632 0.0000

ARDL Short run Estimation Result

Cointegrating Form
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(VAT) 0.0001 0.0000 12.2540 0.0000
D(VAT(-1)) 0.0001 0.0000 13.3917 0.0000
D(CUSTD) 6.2248 1.1651 5.3425 0.0000
D(CIT) 0.0003 0.0000 6.9280 0.0000
D(GOVTCE) 7.1070 0.8620 8.2451 0.0000
D(ECONG) 0.1380 0.0571 2.4166 0.0253
D(ECONG(-1)) −0.1582 0.0590 −2.6807 0.0144
D(OILR) −0.0958 0.0836 −1.1449 0.2658
D(OILR(-1)) 0.2092 0.0819 2.5554 0.0189
D(DEBT) 0.1686 0.0883 1.9075 0.0709
ecm(-1) −0.3489 0.1509 −2.3122 0.0315

Post-estimation diagnostic tests

S/N Variable Variance Inflation Factor

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

VAT

CUSTD

CIT

GOVTCE

ECONG

OILR

DEBT

8.8932

2.1933

2.6182

4.7330

4.9302

2.9674

5.7118

F-statistic 0.8170 Prob. F(2,18) 0.4575
Prob. Chi-Square (2) 0.1973
Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey test
F-Statistics 0.7061 Prob. F(18,20) 0.7689
Prob. Chi-Square (18) 0.6514
Prob. Chi-Square (18) 0.9977
Ramsey RESET test
Value Df Probability
t-statistic 0.5747 19 0.5723
F-statistic 0.3302 (1, 19) 0.5723

ADF unit root test

Variables Statistics for variables in levels Statistics for variables in 1st order difference Order of integration
ADF Computed ADF Critical Status ADF Computed ADF Critical Status
INFDEV 3.1547 2.9369 Stationary - - - I(0)
VAT 3.0654 2.9604 Stationary - - - I(0)
CUSTD 1.7353 2.9369 Non-stationary 5.0983 2.9398 Stationary I(1)
CIT 7.0656 2.9540 Stationary - - - I(0)
GOVTCE 4.5855 2.9604 Stationary - - - I(0)
ECONG 12.5474 2.9369 Stationary - - - I(0)
OILR 1.4726 2.9369 Non-stationary 6.4604 2.9389 Stationary I(1)
DEBT 1.1352 2.9389 Non-stationary 6.5047 2.9434 Stationary I(1)
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