T stat | −32.018 |
−49.89 |
Chi-square (1 df) | 1,025.13 | 1,754.72 |
0.000 | 0.000 | |
95% confidence intervals | (0.934–0.941) | (0.932–0.938) |
Mean | 0.391 | 0.419 | 0.340 |
Standard Deviation | 0.039 | 0.505 | 0.178 |
Maximum | 0.482 | 0.541 | 0.711 |
Minimum | 0.308 | 0.321 | 0.038 |
Observations | 250 | 250 | 250 |
1995 | 1.05 | |||||||||
1996 | ||||||||||
1997 | 2.15 | 1.42 | 0.76 | |||||||
1998 | 0.03 | 1.08 | ||||||||
1999 | 0.09 | |||||||||
2000 | ||||||||||
2001 | 0.20 | 1.05 | ||||||||
2002 | 0.42 | |||||||||
2003 | 1.82 | |||||||||
2004 | 2.34 | 1.80 | ||||||||
2005 | 1.08 | 1.00 | ||||||||
2006 | 2.87 | 1.81 | ||||||||
2007 | 2.73 | 1.10 | ||||||||
2008 | 1.59 | |||||||||
2009 | ||||||||||
2010 | 0.19 | |||||||||
2011 | 1.06 | |||||||||
2012 | ||||||||||
2013 | 0.18 | |||||||||
2014 | 0.70 | |||||||||
2015 | 0.14 | |||||||||
2016 | 0.72 | 0.06 | 0.23 | 0.09 | ||||||
2017 | 1.56 | 0.45 | 1.10 | |||||||
2018 | 1.09 | 0.60 | 0.77 | 1.75 | ||||||
2019 | 0.75 | 0.51 | 0.13 | 0.72 |
Break (Homogeneous) | 1.762 (0.039) |
0.426 (0.335) |
Breaks (Heterogeneous) | 2.975 (0.001) |
0.152 (0.440) |
Break (Homogeneous) | 1.687 (0.046) |
0.137 (0.446) |
Breaks (Heterogeneous) | 2.031 (0.021) |
0.630 (0.264) |
Czechia | 0.070 | 0.309 | 0.302 | 0.050 |
0.059 | 0.050 |
Estonia | 0.099 | 0.410 |
0.331 | 0.052 |
0.124 |
0.125 |
Hungary. | 0.203 |
0.298 | 0.201 | 0.044 | 0.101 | 0.091 |
Latvia | 0.183 |
0.504 |
0.414 |
0.051 |
0.080 | 0.083 |
Lithuania | 0.052 | 0.055 | 0.116 | 0.051 |
0.043 | 0.051 |
Poland | 0.182 |
0.496 |
0.416 |
0.053 |
0.056 | 0.076 |
Slovakia | 0.048 | 0.219 | 0.197 | 0.040 | 0.145 |
0.139 |
Slovenia | 0.059 | 0.189 | 0.322 | 0.054 |
0.097 | 0.085 |
Bulgaria | 0.148 |
0.089 | 0.095 | 0.051 |
0.088 | 0.087 |
Romania | 0.124 | 0.313 | 0.181 | 0.053 |
0.136 |
0.133 |
Panel statistic | 2.995 |
3.508 |
2.282 |
4.938 |
3.309 |
2.460 |
(0.001) | (0.000) | (0.011) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.007) |
Czechia | 0.127 | 0.075 | 0.074 | 0.044 | 0.057 | 0.074 |
Estonia | 0.093 | 0.082 | 0.117 | 0.051 |
0.071 | 0.111 |
Hungary. | 0.038 | 0.151 | 0.159 | 0.031 | 0.148 |
0.153 |
Latvia | 0.063 | 0.062 | 0.107 | 0.047 | 0.052 | 0.056 |
Lithuania | 0.081 | 0.122 | 0.079 | 0.061 |
0.082 | 0.077 |
Poland | 0.088 | 0.128 | 0.157 | 0.057 |
0.056 | 0.060 |
Slovakia | 0.108 | 0.531 |
0.423 |
0.076 |
0.120 |
0.099 |
Slovenia | 0.061 | 0.108 | 0.117 | 0.057 |
0.101 | 0.077 |
Bulgaria | 0.180 |
0.327 | 0.366 |
0.027 | 0.149 |
0.159 |
Romania | 0.038 | 0.065 | 0.083 | 0.035 | 0.048 | 0.041 |
Panel statistic | 1.282 | 0.574 | 0.292 | 4.723 |
2.965 |
2.357 |
(0.100) | (0.283) | (0.385) | (0.000) | (0.002) | (0.009) |
FE (within) | Variable | 2.8438 | 0.004 | Not poolable |
Pooled OLS | Fixed | 14.892 | 0.000 | Not poolable |
Czechia | 0.195 |
0.170 | 0.132 | 0.059 |
0.094 | 0.093 |
Estonia | 0.032 | 0.033 | 0.065 | 0.031 | 0.035 | 0.031 |
Hungary. | 0.078 | 0.091 | 0.110 | 0.048 |
0.089 | 0.107 |
Latvia | 0.057 | 0.126 | 0.070 | 0.046 | 0.050 | 0.046 |
Lithuania | 0.078 | 0.148 | 0.080 | 0.053 |
0.097 | 0.060 |
Poland | 0.075 | 0.044 | 0.055 | 0.045 | 0.038 | 0.051 |
Slovakia | 0.122 | 0.136 | 0.137 | 0.047 | 0.083 | 0.088 |
Slovenia | 0.064 | 0.131 | 0.097 | 0.060 |
0.111 |
0.096 |
Bulgaria | 0.069 | 0.114 | 0.123 | 0.031 | 0.091 | 0.096 |
Romania | 0.053 | 0.069 | 0.181 | 0.052 |
0.040 | 0.068 |
Panel statistic | 0.970 | 4.437 |
1.674 |
1.034 | ||
(0.166) | (0.796) | (0.909) | (0.000) | (0.047) | (0.151) |
Czechia | 0.224 |
0.255 | 0.298 | 0.140 |
0.142 |
0.137 |
Estonia | 0.041 | 0.105 | 0.061 | 0.037 | 0.043 | 0.045 |
Hungary. | 0.059 | 0.141 | 0.144 | 0.045 | 0.141 |
0.131 |
Latvia | 0.076 | 0.075 | 0.068 | 0.056 |
0.063 | 0.068 |
Lithuania | 0.121 | 0.211 | 0.194 | 0.119 |
0.126 |
0.118 |
Poland | 0.193 |
0.191 | 0.198 | 0.051 |
0.120 |
0.144 |
Slovakia | 0.044 | 0.304 | 0.204 | 0.036 | 0.036 | 0.063 |
Slovenia | 0.138 |
0.189 | 0.147 | 0.108 |
0.137 |
0.074 |
Bulgaria | 0.102 | 0.073 | 0.142 | 0.049 |
0.051 | 0.061 |
Romania | 0.042 | 0.147 | 0.055 | 0.038 | 0.048 | 0.044 |
Panel statistic | 2.237 |
0.668 | 9.258 |
3.130 |
2.196 |
|
(0.013) | (0.252) | (0.532) | (0.000) | (0.001) | (0.014) |
Czechia | 0.146 |
0.314 | 0.408 |
0.047 | 0.048 | 0.068 |
Estonia | 0.157 |
0.271 | 0.108 | 0.044 | 0.066 | 0.091 |
Hungary. | 0.342 |
0.187 | 0.148 | 0.040 | 0.107 |
0.103 |
Latvia | 0.070 | 0.448 |
0.313 | 0.052 |
0.074 | 0.076 |
Lithuania | 0.074 | 0.155 | 0.299 | 0.051 |
0.076 | 0.054 |
Poland | 0.170 |
0.409 |
0.352 |
0.065 |
0.101 | 0.103 |
Slovakia | 0.262 |
0.371 |
0.362 |
0.057 |
0.153 |
0.143 |
Slovenia | 0.056 | 0.128 | 0.239 | 0.056 |
0.079 | 0.074 |
Bulgaria | 0.268 |
0.115 | 0.121 | 0.065 |
0.114 |
0.102 |
Romania | 0.074 | 0.151 | 0.160 | 0.049 |
0.121 |
0.116 |
Panel statistic | 5.652 |
2.716 |
2.136 |
5.606 |
3.405 |
2.523 |
(0.000) | (0.003) | (0.016) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.006) |
No breaks | 0.065 | 0.168 | ||
Level break | 0.879 | 0.810 | 0.690 | 0.755 |
Regime shift | 0.422 | 0.663 | 0.437 | 0.669 |
Number of observations | 250 | 250 |
No breaks | 1.731 | 0.958 | −2.409 |
0.008 |
Level break | −1.984 |
0.024 | −2.490 |
0.006 |
Regime shift | −6.050 |
0.000 | −7.182 |
0.000 |
Number of observations | 250 | 250 |
Czechia | 0.060 | 0.092 | 0.168 | 0.058 |
0.068 | 0.067 |
Estonia | 0.043 | 0.073 | 0.097 | 0.039 | 0.067 | 0.086 |
Hungary. | 0.042 | 0.071 | 0.121 | 0.040 | 0.071 | 0.122 |
Latvia | 0.093 | 0.096 | 0.092 | 0.093 |
0.096 | 0.088 |
Lithuania | 0.166 |
0.496 |
0.303 | 0.103 |
0.130 |
0.104 |
Poland | 0.217 |
0.187 | 0.286 | 0.033 | 0.071 | 0.089 |
Slovakia | 0.102 | 0.244 | 0.214 | 0.102 |
0.104 |
0.095 |
Slovenia | 0.131 | 0.172 | 0.185 | 0.114 |
0.197 |
0.088 |
Bulgaria | 0.1068 | 0.085 | 0.117 | 0.063 |
0.077 | 0.116 |
Romania | 0.120 | 0.071 | 0.052 | 0.039 | 0.047 | 0.042 |
Panel statistic | 2.244 |
0.421 | 0.190 | 9.430 |
3.306 |
2.275 |
(0.012) | (0.337) | (0.425) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.011) |
Stationarity of debt and cointegration between revenue and expenditure | 15 Selected EU countries (1970–2006) | Fiscal stance sustainability confirmed | |
Baldi and Staehr (2015) | Estimated fiscal reaction function of primary balance, debt and business cycle viables | Different groups of EU countries (2001–2004) | Sustainable fiscal stance for all groups post financial crises |
Panel cointegration test between primary balance and public debt | 21 OECD countries (1991–2015) | Fiscal stance judged to be unsustainable | |
Fiscal reaction function of primary balance and debt | CEEC (1997–2013) | Fiscal stance sustainable for selected countries | |
Stationarity of public debt | 19 European countries (1970–2016) | Fiscal stance sustainability confirmed | |
Fiscal reaction function of primary balance response to debt | 18 Euro Area countries (1970–2013) | Sustainable fiscal stance | |
Cointegration between revenue, spending and net interest payment | Selected European countries (1970–2001) | Sustainable fiscal policy | |
Cointegration between revenue and expenditure and a fiscal reaction function | CEEC (1990–2012) | Sustainable fiscal stance | |
Fiscal reaction function of primary balance response to debt | EU regional groups (1950–2014) | Varied results depending on the region | |
Cointegration between revenue and expenditure | CEEC (1999:1–2006:1) | Fiscal stance sustainable in selected countries | |
Cointegration between budget deficit and public debt | 15 EU countries (1970–2004) | Fiscal stance sustainability confirmed | |
Cointegration between revenue and expenditure | 8 rich OECD countries (1977:1–2006:4) | Sustainability hypothesis confirmed for selected countries |
Expenditure to GDP ratio | 107.84, 0.000 | 5.494, 0.000 |
Revenue to GDP ratio | 113.42, 0.000 | 1.716, 0.0862 |
γ | 0.499 | 0.364 | 0.938 | 0.935 |
Test stat | 3.390 | 3.815 | 480.74 | 604.07 |
0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | |
Std error | 0.147 | 0.095 | 0.002 | 0.02 |
Obs | 220 | 220 | 210 | 130 |
Shapiro–Wilk Normality test | 0.970 | 0.977 | 0.992 | 0.986 |
(0.000) | (0.001) | (0.260) | (0.220) | |
Peseran CD test | 3.652 | 3.328 | ||
(0.000) | (0.016) | (0.001) | (0.795) |
Czechia | 0.144 |
0.165 | 0.132 | 0.065 |
0.134 |
0.126 |
Estonia | 0.080 | 0.401 | 0.385 |
0.046 | 0.105 |
0.092 |
Hungary. | 0.157 |
0.096 | 0.068 | 0.059 |
0.100 | 0.126 |
Latvia | 0.106 | 0.202 | 0.155 | 0.045 | 0.080 | 0.073 |
Lithuania | 0.089 | 0.172 | 0.146 | 0.072 |
0.135 |
0.126 |
Poland | 0.154 |
0.466 |
0.577 |
0.047 | 0.074 | 0.073 |
Slovakia | 0.095 | 0.258 | 0.206 | 0.063 |
0.146 |
0.126 |
Slovenia | 0.091 | 0.488 |
0.332 | 0.070 |
0.140 |
0.093 |
Bulgaria | 0.102 | 0.072 | 0.097 | 0.068 |
0.072 | 0.065 |
Romania | 0.064 | 0.087 | 0.110 | 0.049 |
0.089 | 0.110 |
Panel statistic | 2.491 |
2.376 |
1.461 |
7.017 |
4.511 |
2.885 |
(0.006) | (0.009) | (0.072) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.002) |
Czechia | 2002, 2010 | 2003 |
Estonia | 1998, 2008, 2011 | 1999, 2007, 2010 |
Hungary | 1997, 2006, 2011, 2015 | 1998, 2001, 2015 |
Latvia | 1999, 2009 | 1997, 2000, 2008, 2011 |
Lithuania | 2000 | 2000, 2008, 2011 |
Poland | 1997, 2008, 2015 | 1997, 2011 |
Slovakia | 1997, 2000, 2003, 2012 | 2002, 2008 |
Slovenia | 2011, 2015 | 2008, 2015 |
Bulgaria | 1997, 2008, 2012 | 1998, 2002 |
Romania | 1997 | 1998, 2001, 2006, 2012 |
No breaks | 0.002 | 0.000 | ||
Level break | 0.001 | 0.002 | ||
Regime shift | 0.009 | 0.001 | ||
Number of observations | 220 | 220 |
Czechia | 0.160 |
0.416 |
0.519 |
0.048 |
0.070 | 0.060 |
Estonia | 0.079 | 0.414 |
0.249 | 0.044 | 0.042 | 0.089 |
Hungary | 0.040 | 0.398 |
0.348 |
0.039 | 0.058 | 0.103 |
Latvia | 0.037 | 0.324 |
0.356 |
0.037 | 0.036 | 0.051 |
Lithuania | 0.061 | 0.242 | 0.165 | 0.059 |
0.145 |
0.111 |
Poland | 0.241 |
0.434 |
0.435 |
0.078 |
0.056 | 0.072 |
Slovakia | 0.080 | 0.262 | 0.230 | 0.056 |
0.149 |
0.123 |
Slovenia | 0.097 | 0.237 | 0.261 | 0.075 |
0.132 |
0.066 |
Bulgaria | 0.040 | 0.281 | 0.343 |
0.037 | 0.035 | 0.071 |
Romania | 0.083 | 0.246 | 0.338 | 0.054 |
0.044 | 0.073 |
Panel statistic | 1.524 |
4.395 |
3.768 |
5.575 |
1.985 |
1.682 |
(0.064) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.023) | (0.046) |