<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">

<p>Climate change is a complex and multi-layer issue with global and local entanglement. In this study, Langat River Basin is chosen. Secondary data was used including the historical flood and drought event reports, Standardized Precipitation Index-1 data and Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) along with Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator Coupled Model (ACCESS CM-2). These data were used to determine the monthly flood and drought precipitation risk based on five regions of Langat River Basin. The CanESM2 and ACCESS CM-2 based on RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios were downscaled and bias corrected for this study. The reliability of these models was then analyzed with Pearson correlation and probability density function (PDF). The future flood and drought risks from year 2020 to 2100 were predicted using the most reliable local climate model local climate hazard thresholds. The CanESM2 RCP 4.5 scenario was identified to have moderate relationship with the historical precipitation trend in Langat River Basin. The Pearson correlation outcomes were then verified by analyzing the PDF curve between models and historical precipitation. The result shows that the downscaled CanESM2 RCP 4.5 was determined to have moderate correlation <italic>r</italic> = 0.30, whereas highest similarity with the historical precipitation trend 98.63 % based on 2006 to 2018 period. The scenario is consistent with medium emission coupled with increasing mitigation efforts in Malaysia. Furthermore, the flood and drought risk assessment outcomes show that the occurrence rate for Central, Northern, Southern, Western, and Eastern region in Langat River Basin were determined as 41.97 %, 60.19 %, 40.23 %, 20.16 %, and 34.98% respectively. The Central region was predicted having two drought incidences (February 2069 and February 2099) due to extreme dry season predicted based on 2020 to 2100 period.</p>
</abstract>

Climate change is a complex and multi-layer issue with global and local entanglement. In this study, Langat River Basin is chosen. Secondary data was used including the historical flood and drought event reports, Standardized Precipitation Index-1 data and Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) along with Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator Coupled Model (ACCESS CM-2). These data were used to determine the monthly flood and drought precipitation risk based on five regions of Langat River Basin. The CanESM2 and ACCESS CM-2 based on RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios were downscaled and bias corrected for this study. The reliability of these models was then analyzed with Pearson correlation and probability density function (PDF). The future flood and drought risks from year 2020 to 2100 were predicted using the most reliable local climate model local climate hazard thresholds. The CanESM2 RCP 4.5 scenario was identified to have moderate relationship with the historical precipitation trend in Langat River Basin. The Pearson correlation outcomes were then verified by analyzing the PDF curve between models and historical precipitation. The result shows that the downscaled CanESM2 RCP 4.5 was determined to have moderate correlation r = 0.30, whereas highest similarity with the historical precipitation trend 98.63 % based on 2006 to 2018 period. The scenario is consistent with medium emission coupled with increasing mitigation efforts in Malaysia. Furthermore, the flood and drought risk assessment outcomes show that the occurrence rate for Central, Northern, Southern, Western, and Eastern region in Langat River Basin were determined as 41.97 %, 60.19 %, 40.23 %, 20.16 %, and 34.98% respectively. The Central region was predicted having two drought incidences (February 2069 and February 2099) due to extreme dry season predicted based on 2020 to 2100 period.

Assessment of the Flood and Drought Occurrence Using Statistically Downscaled Local Climate Models: A Case Study in Langat River Basin, Malaysia

Civil and Environmental Engineering

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Climate change is a complex and multi-layer issue with global and local entanglement. In this study, Langat River Basin is chosen. Secondary data was used...

Assessment of the Flood and Drought Occurrence Using Statistically Downscaled Local Climate Models: A Case Study in Langat River Basin, Malaysia

Online veröffentlicht: 29. Juni 2022

Seitenbereich: 221 - 233

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/cee-2022-0021

Schlüsselwörter
Statistical downscaling, Regional climate model, Potential flood and drought risk, Langat River Basin, Malaysia

© 2022 Kah Loon Voon et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Assessment of the Flood and Drought Occurrence Using Statistically Downscaled Local Climate Models: A Case Study in Langat River Basin, Malaysia

Online veröffentlicht: 29. Juni 2022

Seitenbereich: 221 - 233

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/cee-2022-0021

SchlüsselwörterStatistical downscaling, Regional climate model, Potential flood and drought risk, Langat River Basin, Malaysia

© 2022 Kah Loon Voon et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Schlüsselwörter
Statistical downscaling, Regional climate model, Potential flood and drought risk, Langat River Basin, Malaysia