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Improved Prediction of Polar Motions by Piecewise Parameterization

Yuanwei Wu
Yuanwei Wu
, 
Xin Zhao
Xin Zhao
 und 
Xinyu Yang
Xinyu Yang
   | 05. Jan. 2023
Artificial Satellites's Cover Image
Artificial Satellites
Band 57 (2022): Heft s1 (December 2022)
Proceedings of the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (2nd EOP PCC) Workshop, online, February 15-16, 2022
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Online veröffentlicht: 05. Jan. 2023
Seitenbereich: 290 - 299
Eingereicht: 01. Juli 2022
Akzeptiert: 09. Dez. 2022
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/arsa-2022-0025
Schlüsselwörter
© 2022 Yuanwei Wu et al., published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Figure 1.

Flowchart for EOP prediction of Dill2019 method
Flowchart for EOP prediction of Dill2019 method

Figure 2.

The transformed X (left panel) and Y (right panel) components of GAM, ESMGFZ EAM, and differences between GAM and EAM
The transformed X (left panel) and Y (right panel) components of GAM, ESMGFZ EAM, and differences between GAM and EAM

Figure 3.

Correlation between GAM and EAM. Left panel: the X component; right panel: the Y component.
Correlation between GAM and EAM. Left panel: the X component; right panel: the Y component.

Figure 4.

Piecewise continusous least squares fit of GAM-EAM (upper panels), and full GAM series (lower panels), with left panels for x component and right panels for y component. Blue lines denote data, red lines show the LS fittig results, grey lines are the LS fit residuals.
Piecewise continusous least squares fit of GAM-EAM (upper panels), and full GAM series (lower panels), with left panels for x component and right panels for y component. Blue lines denote data, red lines show the LS fittig results, grey lines are the LS fit residuals.

Figure 5.

Mean absolute error (MAE) of prediction of polar motion x (left panels) and y (right panels) for different parameter choices for AR. Upper panels are predictions within 6 days and lower panels are predictions within 7-90 days.
Mean absolute error (MAE) of prediction of polar motion x (left panels) and y (right panels) for different parameter choices for AR. Upper panels are predictions within 6 days and lower panels are predictions within 7-90 days.

Figure 6.

Absolute difference between polar motions series of IERS EOP C04 and our predition up to 90 days
Absolute difference between polar motions series of IERS EOP C04 and our predition up to 90 days

Figure 7.

Comparing the MAE of our 90-day prediction with the MAE of IERS bulletin A 90-day prediction
Comparing the MAE of our 90-day prediction with the MAE of IERS bulletin A 90-day prediction

Best autoregressive parameters for prediction of PMX

Future day p for PMX p for PMY lag for PMX lag for PMY
1-2 60 60 5 15
3-6 60 60 1 15
7-10 18 18 16 16
11-13, 37-38, 41-42 8 8 2 2
14 5 3 1 1
15-20, 24, 28-29 2 3 1 1
21-23, 25-27, 30 4 4 2 2
31-34 5 19 1 1
35-36,39-40 6 6 2 2
43-57, 65-75 8 8 3 3
58, 62-64 20 20 18 18
59-61 19 19 17 17
75-90 10 10 6 6

Best autoregressive parameters for prediction of PMY

Future day p for PMX p for PMY lag for PMX lag for PMY
1-6 19 19 1 1
7 19 19 17 17
8-11 20 20 18 18
12 6 6 2 2
13-14,16-67,73-90 4 4 2 2
15 3 2 1 1
68-72 8 8 2 2

PM prediction errors (MAE) at different future days

1 days 5 days 10 days 20 days 40 days 60 days 90 days
PMX forecast of this paper (milli arcsec) 0.30 1.04 2.74 4.57 7.62 10.58 13.78
PMX forecast of IERS (milli arcsec) 0.31 1.56 2.93 4.95 7.08 9.51 11.57
PMX forecast error reduction (%) 2.62 32.98 6.59 7.74 −7.67 −11.23 −19.07
PMY forecast of this paper (milli arcsec) 0.19 0.54 1.46 2.10 3.31 3.97 5.60
PMY forecast of IERS (milli arcsec) 0.24 1.07 1.76 2.62 4.42 5.28 7.89
PMY forecast error Reduction (%) 20.77 48.98 17.53 20.05 25.13 24.97 28.93
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