Research on Forecasting Tourism Consumption Trends Based on Data Analysis Techniques
19. März 2025
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Online veröffentlicht: 19. März 2025
Eingereicht: 06. Nov. 2024
Akzeptiert: 17. Feb. 2025
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/amns-2025-0507
Schlüsselwörter
© 2025 Xiao Ma, published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
2007-2023 tourism per capita consumption
| Year | Per capita consumption | Year | Per capita consumption |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 3520 | 2016 | 4857 |
| 2008 | 3646 | 2017 | 4894 |
| 2009 | 3838 | 2018 | 5135 |
| 2010 | 4152 | 2019 | 5242 |
| 2011 | 4166 | 2020 | 245 |
| 2012 | 4174 | 2021 | 1384 |
| 2013 | 4384 | 2022 | 3746 |
| 2014 | 4766 | 2023 | 5216 |
| 2015 | 4779 |
Comparison of predict results of four predict models
| Year | URM | GM(1,1) | ESM | Ours | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict value | Relative error/% | Predict value | Relative error/% | Predict value | Relative error/% | Predict value | Relative error/% | |
| 2007 | 3822 | 8.58 | 3479 | 1.16 | 3666 | 4.15 | 3537 | 0.48 |
| 2008 | 3982 | 9.22 | 3555 | 2.50 | 3945 | 8.20 | 3661 | 0.41 |
| 2009 | 4033 | 5.08 | 4017 | 4.66 | 4122 | 7.40 | 3902 | 1.67 |
| 2010 | 4373 | 5.32 | 4221 | 1.66 | 4280 | 3.08 | 4091 | 1.47 |
| 2011 | 4513 | 8.33 | 4433 | 6.41 | 4461 | 7.08 | 4164 | 0.05 |
| 2012 | 4565 | 9.37 | 4527 | 8.46 | 4520 | 8.29 | 4167 | 0.17 |
| 2013 | 4702 | 7.25 | 4600 | 4.93 | 4674 | 6.61 | 4324 | 1.37 |
| 2014 | 4977 | 4.43 | 4986 | 4.62 | 4998 | 4.87 | 4705 | 1.28 |
| 2015 | 5082 | 6.34 | 4994 | 4.50 | 5047 | 5.61 | 4834 | 1.15 |
| 2016 | 5201 | 7.08 | 5121 | 5.44 | 5075 | 4.49 | 4916 | 1.21 |
| 2017 | 5340 | 9.11 | 5324 | 8.79 | 5103 | 4.27 | 4977 | 1.70 |
| 2018 | 5554 | 8.16 | 5509 | 7.28 | 5281 | 2.84 | 5167 | 0.62 |
| 2019 | 5718 | 9.08 | 5531 | 5.51 | 5409 | 3.19 | 5260 | 0.34 |
| 2020 | 321 | 31.02 | 191 | 22.04 | 298 | 21.63 | 227 | 7.35 |
| 2021 | 1676 | 21.10 | 1498 | 8.24 | 1480 | 6.94 | 1447 | 4.55 |
| 2022 | 4391 | 17.22 | 3822 | 2.03 | 3576 | 4.54 | 3895 | 3.98 |
| 2023 | 5620 | 7.75 | 5600 | 7.36 | 5046 | 3.26 | 5225 | 0.17 |
| Mean relative error | 10.26 | 6.21 | 6.26 | 1.65 | ||||
Status division of incremental percentage sequence of foreign tourism exchange income
| Status | A | B | C | D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual increment percentage | 0%-10% | 10%-20% | 20%-30% | 30%-40% |
The relative annual increment status of foreign tourism exchange income
| Year | Number | Foreign tourism exchange income/104 yuan | Incremental percentage/% | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 0 | 2628 | - | - |
| 2008 | 1 | 2811 | 6.96 | A |
| 2009 | 2 | 3799 | 35.15 | D |
| 2010 | 3 | 4167 | 9.69 | A |
| 2011 | 4 | 4726 | 13.41 | B |
| 2012 | 5 | 4993 | 5.65 | A |
| 2013 | 6 | 5628 | 12.72 | B |
| 2014 | 7 | 6133 | 8.97 | A |
| 2015 | 8 | 7033 | 14.67 | B |
| 2016 | 9 | 8015 | 13.96 | B |
| 2017 | 10 | 8613 | 7.46 | A |
| 2018 | 11 | 9404 | 9.18 | A |
| 2019 | 12 | 10861 | 15.49 | B |
| 2020 | 13 | 184 | / | / |
| 2021 | 14 | 915 | / | / |
| 2022 | 15 | 4258 | / | / |
| 2023 | 16 | 8512 | / | / |
| 2024 | 17 | 10866 | 27.66 | C |
| 2025 | 18 | 14316 | 31.75 | D |
| 2026 | 19 | 17783 | 24.22 | C |
| 2027 | 20 | 21817 | 22.68 | C |
| 2028 | 21 | 26524 | 21.57 | C |
Predict results of inbound tourist quantity from 2024 to 2028
| Year | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | Average growth rate/% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total number | 179529 | 190931 | 203972 | 213265 | 229994 | 6.40 |
| Japan | 33123 | 34488 | 36830 | 37309 | 39580 | 4.57 |
| Korea | 25778 | 26398 | 28725 | 30138 | 32241 | 5.78 |
| Russia | 22132 | 27534 | 29758 | 30053 | 32782 | 10.64 |
| USA | 28391 | 28439 | 30351 | 32577 | 34644 | 5.14 |
| Europe | 35612 | 35774 | 36727 | 38267 | 40031 | 2.98 |
| Southeast Asia | 13337 | 16289 | 17876 | 19122 | 21967 | 13.43 |
| Australia | 21156 | 22009 | 23705 | 25799 | 28749 | 8.00 |