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Forecasting the Territorial-Spatial Development of the System of Children’s Medical Complexes in Ukraine

Irina BULAKH

Irina BULAKH

*Prof., DSc in Architecture; Kyiv National University of Construction and Architecture, Faculty of ArchitectureKyiv, Ukraine
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BULAKH, Irina
  
08. Okt. 2021
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Online veröffentlicht: 08. Okt. 2021
Seitenbereich: 5 - 15
Eingereicht: 04. Mai 2021
Akzeptiert: 07. Sept. 2021
DOI: https://doi.org/10.21307/acee-2021-018
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© 2018 Irina Bulakh published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Figure 1.

Urban planning network of hospitals and outpatient facilities in Ukraine (Figure by the author of the paper)
Urban planning network of hospitals and outpatient facilities in Ukraine (Figure by the author of the paper)

Figure 2.

The model of children’s therapeutic complex, indicators of the number of doctors in the world, summarized actual and forecast data for forecasting the territorial and spatial development of the urban system of pediatric treatment facilities at the level of an urban network of primary care facilities (Figure by the author of the article)
The model of children’s therapeutic complex, indicators of the number of doctors in the world, summarized actual and forecast data for forecasting the territorial and spatial development of the urban system of pediatric treatment facilities at the level of an urban network of primary care facilities (Figure by the author of the article)

Figure 3.

The model of children’s therapeutic complex, indicators of the total number of hospital beds per 100,000 population in the world, summarized actual and forecast data for forecasting the territorial and spatial development of the urban system of pediatric treatment facilities at the level of an urban hospital network (Figure by the author of the paper)
The model of children’s therapeutic complex, indicators of the total number of hospital beds per 100,000 population in the world, summarized actual and forecast data for forecasting the territorial and spatial development of the urban system of pediatric treatment facilities at the level of an urban hospital network (Figure by the author of the paper)

Proposals of dynamic scenarios of the territorial and spatial development of pediatric treatment facilities at the national level of organization of the urban network of primary healthcare facilities

Name 2030 2040 2050 2060 2100
Population / optimistic (max) case 42.0 million 40.0 million 38.3 million 36.0 million 37.5 million
Number of primary care physicians 33 600 32 000 30 640 28 800 30 000
Population / optimal (opt) case 39.8 million 39.8 million 33.6 million 30.8 million 24.0 million
Number of primary care physicians 31 840 29 600 26 880 24 640 19 200
Population / pessimistic (min) case 39.0 million 36.0 million 32.2 million 27.0 million 15.0 million
Number of primary care physicians 31 200 28 800 25 760 21 600 12 000

Proposals for dynamic scenarios of the territorial and spatial development of pediatric treatment facilities at the national level of hospital urban networks organization of secondary and tertiary healthcare

Name 2030 2040 2050 2060 2100
Population / optimistic (max) case 42.0 million 40.0 million 38.3 million 36.0 million 37.5 million
Total number of beds in hospitals 221 340 210 800 201 841 189 720 197 625
Population / optimal (opt) case 39.8 million 37.0 million 33.6 million 30.8 million 24.0 million
Total number of beds in hospitals 209 746 194 990 177 072 162 316 126 480
Population / pessimistic (min) case 39.0 million 36.0 million 32.2 million 27.0 million 15.0 million
Total number of beds in hospitals 205 530 189 720 169 694 142 290 79 050
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