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EX-ANTE ANALYSIS MODEL OF THE COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY REGULATIONS

Elzbieta BRONIEWICZ

Elzbieta BRONIEWICZ

Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Bialystok University of TechnologyBialystok, Poland
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BRONIEWICZ, Elzbieta
  
06. Aug. 2019
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Artikel-Kategorie: review
Online veröffentlicht: 06. Aug. 2019
Seitenbereich: 119 - 130
Eingereicht: 18. Jan. 2019
Akzeptiert: 27. März 2019
DOI: https://doi.org/10.21307/acee-2019-028
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© 2019 Elzbieta BRONIEWICZ et al., published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Figure 1.

The use of ex-post and ex-ante analyses in environmental policy. Source: own elaboration based on [2]
The use of ex-post and ex-ante analyses in environmental policy. Source: own elaboration based on [2]

Figure 2.

The proposed model of ex-ante CEA of environmental policy. Source: own elaboration
The proposed model of ex-ante CEA of environmental policy. Source: own elaboration

Figure 3.

Forecasted value of gross cost efficiency in 2020 in period I (2002–2007) and period II (2008–2013) [million PLN/% emission reduction compared to the base year 1998], fixed costs in 2013. Source: own elaboration
Forecasted value of gross cost efficiency in 2020 in period I (2002–2007) and period II (2008–2013) [million PLN/% emission reduction compared to the base year 1998], fixed costs in 2013. Source: own elaboration

Figure 4.

The actual and projected value of the environmental effect in 2020 in period I (2002–2007) and period II (2008–2013) [percentage of emission reductions compared to the base year 1998]. Source: own elaboration
The actual and projected value of the environmental effect in 2020 in period I (2002–2007) and period II (2008–2013) [percentage of emission reductions compared to the base year 1998]. Source: own elaboration

The environmental effect

Detailed list Year of analysis
I period of analysis
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Environmental effect [% of CO2reduction] 33.945 30.759 31.496 31.719 29.627 31.634
II period of analysis
2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008
33.988 33.988 33.988 33.988 33.988 33.988

The measures of matching and verification of linearised time series models of cost-effectiveness time series

Specification Measurements of model fit and verification
R2 The standard error of estimation Statistics F p
Gross Costs
The first period 0.5421 1.939 4.7351 0.0952
The second period 0.5505 1.851 4.8985 0.0912
Net costs
The first period 0.5475 1.870 4.8409 0.0926
The second period 0.2095 1.924 1.0603 0.3613

Cost-effectiveness of CO2 reduction measures in the years 2002–2013 [million PLN/percentage of CO2 emission reduction, related to the 1988 emission level], fixed prices in 2013

Analysis period Year Cost-effectiveness in relation to gross costs Cost-effectiveness in relation to net costs
I period 2002 35.9693 35.1902
2003 41.5068 40.6470
2004 39.5434 38.7038
2005 39.3764 38.5426
2006 43.6976 42.6623
2007 40.3013 39.4591
II period 2008 36.3873 35.6034
2009 36.5995 33.7905
2010 41.2125 38.1665
2011 42.3502 39.2228
2012 39.0837 36.0018
2013 40.6166 37.0052

The measures of verification and matching of single equation cost-effectiveness models

Specification The Measurements of model fit and verification
R2 A standard error of estimation F statistics p
The first period 0.96524 0.34206 41.649 0.00648
The second period 0.97612 0.28694 27.252 0.03560
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