1. bookVolume 114 (2017): Issue 8 (August 2017)
Journal Details
License
Format
Journal
eISSN
2353-737X
First Published
20 May 2020
Publication timeframe
1 time per year
Languages
English
access type Open Access

Quantitative Estimation of the Impact of Random Confounding Factors on the Duration and Cost of Construction Works

Published Online: 26 May 2020
Volume & Issue: Volume 114 (2017) - Issue 8 (August 2017)
Page range: 73 - 79
Journal Details
License
Format
Journal
eISSN
2353-737X
First Published
20 May 2020
Publication timeframe
1 time per year
Languages
English
Abstract

Random events may interfere with the execution process and results of the work. Then, the duration and cost of work are random variables. The random characteristics of these variables are described by using the β-PERT probability distribution and the simplified formulas. To determine the probable changes of the duration and cost of work, depending on the random factors, the coefficients of optimism and pessimism have been used. Additionally, the coefficients of improvement and deterioration of conditions of work implementation have been introduced. The values of these coefficients are calculated depending on the type, the probability of occurrence, the intensity of random perturbations and depending on the probable changes of the work duration as well as the probability and cost consequences of the price increase. Extreme random improvement and deterioration of the work execution conditions are analysed.

Keywords

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