<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">

<p>Aviation is one of the most global industries, and if we can model and predict a country’s air transportation flow and indicators ahead of time, we may be able to use it as a key decision-making tool for the management and operation process. This study proposes a new modeling, and prediction method that employs both fractional calculus and Multi Deep Assessment Methodology (MDAM) techniques. For the application, air passengers carried, air freight, available seat kilometers, number of flights, destination points, international travelers, international destination points, and international flight data between 2011 and 2019 for eight countries with the busiest airports were chosen. As a result, the highest modeling error was discovered to be Germany’s air transport freight factor expressed as a percentage of 1,59E-02. The percentage of predictions with errors less than 10% was 90.278. We also compared the performance of two different MDAM methodologies. The novel MDAM wd methodology proposed in this paper has a higher accuracy in aviation factors prediction and modeling.</p>
</abstract>

Aviation is one of the most global industries, and if we can model and predict a country’s air transportation flow and indicators ahead of time, we may be able to use it as a key decision-making tool for the management and operation process. This study proposes a new modeling, and prediction method that employs both fractional calculus and Multi Deep Assessment Methodology (MDAM) techniques. For the application, air passengers carried, air freight, available seat kilometers, number of flights, destination points, international travelers, international destination points, and international flight data between 2011 and 2019 for eight countries with the busiest airports were chosen. As a result, the highest modeling error was discovered to be Germany’s air transport freight factor expressed as a percentage of 1,59E-02. The percentage of predictions with errors less than 10% was 90.278. We also compared the performance of two different MDAM methodologies. The novel MDAM wd methodology proposed in this paper has a higher accuracy in aviation factors prediction and modeling.

A Novel Method for Modeling and Predicting Transportation Data Via Multideep Assessment Methodology and Fractional Calculus

Transport and Telecommunication Journal

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Aviation is one of the most global industries, and if we can model and predict a country’s air transportation flow and indicators ahead of time, we may be able...

A Novel Method for Modeling and Predicting Transportation Data Via Multideep Assessment Methodology and Fractional Calculus

Published Online: Apr 23, 2024

Page range: 136 - 149

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ttj-2024-0010

Keywords
Air transportation, deep assessment methodology, fractional calculus, time series prediction, modeling, applied mathematics

© 2024 Kevser Şimşek et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

A Novel Method for Modeling and Predicting Transportation Data Via Multideep Assessment Methodology and Fractional Calculus

Published Online: Apr 23, 2024

Page range: 136 - 149

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ttj-2024-0010

KeywordsAir transportation, deep assessment methodology, fractional calculus, time series prediction, modeling, applied mathematics

© 2024 Kevser Şimşek et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Keywords
Air transportation, deep assessment methodology, fractional calculus, time series prediction, modeling, applied mathematics