<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">

<p>This article reviews the methods of safety management using Heinrich’s and Bird’s pyramids. The presence of a causal relationship between pyramid levels, as a result of inconsistencies in the activities of an organization and personnel, lead to incidents, and incidents in turn lead to accidents. The existence of such a relationship makes it possible to predict the risk of “top-level” events by reducing risks at the middle and lower levels. A mathematical description of the development process of an undesired aviation event is presented, which makes it possible to evaluate the probability of the successful (or unsuccessful) completion of a transportation task. Also given is an analysis of the development of an aviation accident, based on the example of the crash of a Lufthansa A-320 aircraft on 14 September 1993 at the airport of Warsaw (Poland) while landing in adverse weather conditions.</p>
</abstract>

This article reviews the methods of safety management using Heinrich’s and Bird’s pyramids. The presence of a causal relationship between pyramid levels, as a result of inconsistencies in the activities of an organization and personnel, lead to incidents, and incidents in turn lead to accidents. The existence of such a relationship makes it possible to predict the risk of “top-level” events by reducing risks at the middle and lower levels. A mathematical description of the development process of an undesired aviation event is presented, which makes it possible to evaluate the probability of the successful (or unsuccessful) completion of a transportation task. Also given is an analysis of the development of an aviation accident, based on the example of the crash of a Lufthansa A-320 aircraft on 14 September 1993 at the airport of Warsaw (Poland) while landing in adverse weather conditions.

Using Adverse Event Pyramids to Assess Probabilities in Airline Safety Management

Transactions on Aerospace Research

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

This article reviews the methods of safety management using Heinrich’s and Bird’s pyramids. The presence of a causal relationship between pyramid levels, as a...

Using Adverse Event Pyramids to Assess Probabilities in Airline Safety Management

Published Online: Jul 01, 2021

Page range: 71 - 83

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/tar-2021-0012

Keywords
Airline safety management, risk analysis

© 2021 Aleksandrs Bitinš et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Using Adverse Event Pyramids to Assess Probabilities in Airline Safety Management

Published Online: Jul 01, 2021

Page range: 71 - 83

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/tar-2021-0012

KeywordsAirline safety management, risk analysis

© 2021 Aleksandrs Bitinš et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Keywords
Airline safety management, risk analysis