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<p>This study analyzes the domestic political, economic, and social conditions in the Western Balkans that provide fertile ground for hostile and maligned actors to manipulate and exploit governments and societies with hybrid war measures, namely cyberattacks and cyber intrusions and disinformation and fake news. It begins with a review and assessment of the prevailing empirical and theoretical literature on hybrid warfare. It then describes two leading empirical indices that measure degrees of permeability and structural vulnerability that elevate or reduce the risks associated with maligned and hostile interventions. The article also examines leading indicators measuring resilience levels in cybersecurity and media/information literacy, highlighting political, social, and economic vulnerabilities. It concludes by suggesting that domestic conditions in the region encourage maligned and hostile actors, especially Russia and for different reasons and to a lesser extent China and Turkey, to use hybrid measures to exploit the region. The article proposes that in addition to strengthening institutions and trust, membership in NATO and the E.U. are directly related to mitigating structural vulnerability and reducing uncertainty and insecurity in the Western Balkans.</p>
</abstract>

This study analyzes the domestic political, economic, and social conditions in the Western Balkans that provide fertile ground for hostile and maligned actors to manipulate and exploit governments and societies with hybrid war measures, namely cyberattacks and cyber intrusions and disinformation and fake news. It begins with a review and assessment of the prevailing empirical and theoretical literature on hybrid warfare. It then describes two leading empirical indices that measure degrees of permeability and structural vulnerability that elevate or reduce the risks associated with maligned and hostile interventions. The article also examines leading indicators measuring resilience levels in cybersecurity and media/information literacy, highlighting political, social, and economic vulnerabilities. It concludes by suggesting that domestic conditions in the region encourage maligned and hostile actors, especially Russia and for different reasons and to a lesser extent China and Turkey, to use hybrid measures to exploit the region. The article proposes that in addition to strengthening institutions and trust, membership in NATO and the E.U. are directly related to mitigating structural vulnerability and reducing uncertainty and insecurity in the Western Balkans.

Hybrid Warfare in the Western Balkans: How Structural Vulnerability Attracts Maligned Powers and Hostile Influence

Southeast European University Professor of Intelligence and Security Studies

SEEU Review

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

This study analyzes the domestic political, economic, and social conditions in the Western Balkans that provide fertile ground for hostile and maligned actors...

Hybrid Warfare in the Western Balkans: How Structural Vulnerability Attracts Maligned Powers and Hostile Influence

Published Online: Jul 04, 2022

Page range: 3 - 25

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/seeur-2022-0018

Keywords
hybrid warfare, permeability, vulnerability, cybersecurity, disinformation, hostile influence, maligned actors

© 2022 Chris J. Dolan, published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Hybrid Warfare in the Western Balkans: How Structural Vulnerability Attracts Maligned Powers and Hostile Influence

Published Online: Jul 04, 2022

Page range: 3 - 25

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/seeur-2022-0018

Keywordshybrid warfare, permeability, vulnerability, cybersecurity, disinformation, hostile influence, maligned actors

© 2022 Chris J. Dolan, published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Keywords
hybrid warfare, permeability, vulnerability, cybersecurity, disinformation, hostile influence, maligned actors