<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">

<p>In this paper, the authors seek to analyze if the relationship between final consumption and foreign trade indicators, at a macroeconomic level, manifests as a Granger causality. The graphical representation of the datasets reveals that the evolutions follow a similar pattern (with the exception of the net export). The indicators on both sides of the causality have been widely approached by researchers, as they contribute to the formation of the Gross Domestic Product. The research methodology follows the Toda-Yamamoto procedure for measurement of Granger causality, as the variables were expected to be (and were found to be in the initial step of the data analysis) non-stationary, and the results on the processing in levels can provide more accurate information. The research hypotheses were designed in order to detail the main topic of the paper on foreign trade indicators. None of the hypotheses has been validated, and the authors consider, in the future, the application of other methods to assess the quantitative side of the links between foreign trade and final consumption. The authors consider that a significant contribution brought by this study is the type of data analysis method applied and the approach towards the two macroeconomic components of the economy, for the cases of Romania and the entire European Union, of which Romania is a member.</p>
</abstract>

In this paper, the authors seek to analyze if the relationship between final consumption and foreign trade indicators, at a macroeconomic level, manifests as a Granger causality. The graphical representation of the datasets reveals that the evolutions follow a similar pattern (with the exception of the net export). The indicators on both sides of the causality have been widely approached by researchers, as they contribute to the formation of the Gross Domestic Product. The research methodology follows the Toda-Yamamoto procedure for measurement of Granger causality, as the variables were expected to be (and were found to be in the initial step of the data analysis) non-stationary, and the results on the processing in levels can provide more accurate information. The research hypotheses were designed in order to detail the main topic of the paper on foreign trade indicators. None of the hypotheses has been validated, and the authors consider, in the future, the application of other methods to assess the quantitative side of the links between foreign trade and final consumption. The authors consider that a significant contribution brought by this study is the type of data analysis method applied and the approach towards the two macroeconomic components of the economy, for the cases of Romania and the entire European Union, of which Romania is a member.

Final Consumption and Foreign Trade for Romania and European Union – A Granger causality-based analysis

Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

In this paper, the authors seek to analyze if the relationship between final consumption and foreign trade indicators, at a macroeconomic level, manifests as a...

Final Consumption and Foreign Trade for Romania and European Union – A Granger causality-based analysis

Published Online: Dec 31, 2021

Page range: 838 - 848

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/picbe-2021-0077

Keywords
Granger causality, final consumption, foreign trade, Toda-Yamamoto procedure, data, analysis

© 2021 Mihai Păunică et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Final Consumption and Foreign Trade for Romania and European Union – A Granger causality-based analysis

Published Online: Dec 31, 2021

Page range: 838 - 848

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/picbe-2021-0077

KeywordsGranger causality, final consumption, foreign trade, Toda-Yamamoto procedure, data, analysis

© 2021 Mihai Păunică et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Keywords
Granger causality, final consumption, foreign trade, Toda-Yamamoto procedure, data, analysis