Scenario-Based Modelling of Residential Sector Consumption: A Case Study in Latvia

Promoting the development of energy communities is one of the planned development areas mentioned in the Latvian National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP). Even though energy communities do not yet exist in Latvia, they could improve the quality of the environment and stimulate the local economy. In any case, it is expected that the structure of household energy consumption in Latvia will change as households start to adopt new technologies such as electric cars and heat pumps, as well as participate in energy production and demand response.

Often the starting point for the development of an energy community is the geographic location of consumers. Therefore, for this study, a microdistrict was chosen in one of the most developed suburbs of Riga in Latvia, in which 76 households are located. The study identified five milestones on the path from mere neighborhood to the energy community. The resLoadSIM Residential Load Simulation tool was chosen to simulate realistic energy consumption with a 1-minute time resolution, as well as to model the future solar energy consumption and generation in the community on its way to becoming an energy community and meeting these goals. The network constraints associated with the transformer and lines are taken into account and it is assumed that the district will not invest in the development and expansion of the network.

Based on the results of the modelling, an analysis was made of the impact of the development of the energy community in Latvia and how each stage of development will affect energy consumption, the amount of renewable energy, the energy sent to the grid, the power consumed directly, and the share of solar energy in energy consumption.