<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">

<sec id="j_jvetres-2022-0067_s_005"><h3>Introduction</h3>
<p>African swine fever (ASF) is a lethal haemorrhagic disease of Suidae, present in Poland since 2014. The natural reservoir of ASF in Europe is the wild boar (Sus scrofa); however, human activity facilitates long-distance introductions of the disease. In ASF control it is important to identify areas at increased risk of infection. Such identification and estimation of the disease’s progress and subsequent spread will help to identify the specific preventive action needs in given zones. Serving this purpose, this study is a spatial and statistical analysis of ASF spread through noted outbreak data.</p></sec>
<sec id="j_jvetres-2022-0067_s_006"><h3>Material and Methods</h3>
<p>The spatial-temporal analysis was conducted on the basis of data including the time and location of all ASF outbreaks both in wild boars and domestic pigs in Poland in 2014–2021.</p></sec>
<sec id="j_jvetres-2022-0067_s_007"><h3>Results</h3>
<p>The analysis indicates possible routes and directions for further ASF spread in Poland, estimates the annual increase of the affected area (approx. 25,000 km<sup>2</sup> every year since 2017) and marks trends. The strong method-independent correlation between the year and the surface area affected by African swine fever indicated a near-linear generalised trend.</p></sec>
<sec id="j_jvetres-2022-0067_s_008"><h3>Conclusion</h3>
<p>Given the growth trend, we can expect ASF to expand further into new territories of the country; however, it is important to realise that there is still a significant area to protect, because 60% of Poland remains ASF-free.</p>
</sec>
</abstract>

Introduction
African swine fever (ASF) is a lethal haemorrhagic disease of Suidae, present in Poland since 2014. The natural reservoir of ASF in Europe is the wild boar (Sus scrofa); however, human activity facilitates long-distance introductions of the disease. In ASF control it is important to identify areas at increased risk of infection. Such identification and estimation of the disease’s progress and subsequent spread will help to identify the specific preventive action needs in given zones. Serving this purpose, this study is a spatial and statistical analysis of ASF spread through noted outbreak data.
Material and Methods
The spatial-temporal analysis was conducted on the basis of data including the time and location of all ASF outbreaks both in wild boars and domestic pigs in Poland in 2014–2021.
Results
The analysis indicates possible routes and directions for further ASF spread in Poland, estimates the annual increase of the affected area (approx. 25,000 km2 every year since 2017) and marks trends. The strong method-independent correlation between the year and the surface area affected by African swine fever indicated a near-linear generalised trend.
Conclusion
Given the growth trend, we can expect ASF to expand further into new territories of the country; however, it is important to realise that there is still a significant area to protect, because 60% of Poland remains ASF-free.

Dynamics of the African swine fever spread in Poland

Journal of Veterinary Research

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

{"article-title":"Dynamics of the African swine fever spread in Poland"}

Introduction
African swine fever (ASF) is a lethal haemorrhagic disease of Suidae, present in Poland since 2014. The natural reservoir of ASF in Europe is the...

Dynamics of the African swine fever spread in Poland

Published Online: Dec 10, 2022

Page range: 459 - 471

Received: Aug 11, 2022

Accepted: Nov 28, 2022

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/jvetres-2022-0067

Keywords
ASF, spread, spatial analysis, geostatistical analysis, Poland.

© 2022 Ł. Bocian et al. published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Dynamics of the African swine fever spread in Poland

Published Online: Dec 10, 2022

Page range: 459 - 471

Received: Aug 11, 2022

Accepted: Nov 28, 2022

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/jvetres-2022-0067

KeywordsASF, spread, spatial analysis, geostatistical analysis, Poland.

© 2022 Ł. Bocian et al. published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Keywords
ASF, spread, spatial analysis, geostatistical analysis, Poland.