Predictions vs. Preliminary Sample Estimates: The Case of Eurozone Quarterly GDP

Altavilla, C. and M. Ciccarelli. 2007. “Information Combination and Forecast (st)ability.Search in Google Scholar

Evidence from Vintages of Time-Series Data.” Working Paper Series ECB, No. 864. Available at: http://ideas.repec.org/e/pal73.html (accessed July 31, 2014).Search in Google Scholar

Angelini, E., G. Camba-Mendez, D. Giannone, L. Reichlin, and G. Ru¨nstler. 2011. “Short- Term Forecasts of Euro Area GDP Growth.” The Econometrics Journal 14: 25-44. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1368-423X.2010.00328.x.10.1111/j.1368-423X.2010.00328.xSearch in Google Scholar

Barhoumi, K., S. Benk, R. Cristadoro, A. Reijer, P. Jakaitiene, P. Jelonek, and A. Rua. 2008. “Short-Term Forecasting of GDP Using Large Monthly Datasets: a Pseudo Real-Time Forecast Evaluation Exercise.” Occasional Paper Series ECB, No. 84. Available at: http://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbops/20080084.html (accessed July 31, 2014).Search in Google Scholar

Blanchard, O.J., J.P. L’Huillier, and G. Lorenzoni. 2009. “News, Noise, and Fluctuations: An Empirical Exploration.” NBER Working Paper, No. w15015, Available at: http:// www.nber.org/papers/w15015 (accessed July 31, 2014).Search in Google Scholar

Clemen, R. 1989. “Combining Forecasts: a Review and Annotated Bibliography.” International Journal of Forecasting 5: 559-583. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0169-2070(89)90012-5.10.1016/0169-2070(89)90012-5Search in Google Scholar

D’Orazio, M., M. Di Zio, and M. Scanu. 2006. Statistical Matching: Theory and Practice. New York: Wiley.10.1002/0470023554Search in Google Scholar

Diron, M. 2008. “Short-Term Forecasts of Euro Area Real GDP Growth: An Assessment of Real-Time Performance Based on Vintage Data.” Journal of Forecasting 27: 371-390. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/for.1067. 10.1002/for.1067Search in Google Scholar

European Central Bank 2009. “Revisions to GDP Estimates in the Euro Area.” Monthly Bulletin 4: 85-90. Available at: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/mobu/mb200904en.pdf (accessed July 31, 2014).Search in Google Scholar

European Communities 1999. Handbook on Quarterly National Accounts, Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities. Available at: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_OFFPUB/CA-22-99-781/EN/CA-22-99-781-EN.PDF (accessed July 31, 2014).Search in Google Scholar

European Statistics Code of Practice 2011. Available at: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_OFFPUB/KS-32-11-955/EN/KS-32-11-955-EN.PDF.Search in Google Scholar

Fan, J. 1992. “Design-Adaptive Nonparametric Regression.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 87: 998-1004. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2290637.10.2307/2290637Search in Google Scholar

Fan, J. and I. Gijbels. 1996. Local Polynomial Modelling and Its Applications. London: Chapman & Hall.Search in Google Scholar

Fixler, D.J. and B.T. Grimm. 2006. “GDP Estimates: Rationality Tests and Turning Point Performance.” Journal of Productivity Analysis 25: 213-229. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11123-006-7640-x. 10.1007/s11123-006-7640-xSearch in Google Scholar

Frale, C. and V. Raponi. 2012. “Revisions in Official Data and Forecasting.” Working Papers of Dipartimento del Tesoro, No. 3.Search in Google Scholar

Frale, C., M. Marcellino, G.L. Mazzi, and T. Proietti. 2011. “EUROMIND: A Monthly Indicator of the Euro Area Economic Conditions.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A 174: 439-470. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2010.00675.x. 10.1111/j.1467-985X.2010.00675.xSearch in Google Scholar

Giannone, D., L. Reichlin, and D. Small. 2008. “Nowcasting: The Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data.” Journal of Monetary Economics 55: 665-676. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2008.05.010. 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2008.05.010Search in Google Scholar

Graham, P., J. Young, and R. Penny. 2009. “Multiply Imputed Synthetic Data: Evaluation of Hierarchical Bayesian Imputation Models.” Journal of Official Statistics 25: 245-268.Search in Google Scholar

Granger, C.W.J. and M.J. Machina. 2006. “Forecasting and Decision Theory.” In Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edited by G. Elliott, C.W.J. Granger, and A. Timmermann. Amsterdam: Elsevier.10.1016/S1574-0706(05)01002-5Search in Google Scholar

Granger, C.W.J. and M.H. Pesaran. 2000. “Economic and Statistical Measures of Forecast Accuracy.” Journal of Forecasting 19: 537-560. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/1099-131X(200012)19:7,537:AID-FOR769.3.0.CO;2-G. Search in Google Scholar

Jansen, W.J., X. Jin, and J. de Winter. 2012. “Forecasting and Nowcasting Real GDP: Comparing Statistical Models and Subjective Forecasts.” De Nederlandsche Bank Working Paper, No. 365. Available at: http://www.dnb.nl/en/binaries/Working%20Paper%20365_tcm47-283164.pdf (accessed July 31, 2014).Search in Google Scholar

Little, R.J.A. 2012. “Calibrated Bayes, an Alternative Inferential Paradigm for Official Statistics.” Journal of Official Statistics 28: 309-334.Search in Google Scholar

Little, R.J.A., F. Liu, and T.E. Raghunathan. 2004. “Statistical Disclosure Techniques Based on Multiple Imputation.” In Applied Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference from Incomplete-Data Perspectives, edited by A. Gelman and X.L. Meng, 141-152. New York: John Wiley & Sons.10.1002/0470090456.ch13Search in Google Scholar

Pain, N. and F. Se´dillot. 2005. “Indicator Models of Real GDP Growth in the Major OECD Economies.” OECD Economic Studies, No. 40. Available at: http://web.b.ebscohost.com/ehost/pdfviewer/pdfviewer?sid¼4a74b653-6721-45c4-897d-9aa24c0c2037%40sessionmgr113&vid¼2&hid¼128. (accessed July 31, 2014).Search in Google Scholar

Sarndal, C.-E. and S. Lundstro¨m. 2005. Estimation in Surveys With Nonresponse. New York: John Wiley & Sons.Search in Google Scholar

Sims, C.A. 2003. “Implications of Rational Inattention.” Journal of Monetary Economics 50: 665-690. DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3932(03)00029-1.10.1016/S0304-3932(03)00029-1Search in Google Scholar

UNSTAT, 2009. “International Seminar on Timeliness, Methodology and Comparability of Rapid Estimates of Economic Trends.” Available at: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/nationalaccount/workshops/2009/ottawa (accessed July 31, 2014).Search in Google Scholar

Winston, G.C. 2008. The Timing of Economic Activities. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Search in Google Scholar

Yang, Y. and H. Zou. 2004. “Combining Time Series Models for Forecasting.” International Journal of Forecasting 20: 69-84. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2070(03)00004-9. 10.1016/S0169-2070(03)00004-9Search in Google Scholar