<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p>River runoff is not only a crucial part of the global water cycle, but it is also an important source for hydropower and an essential element of water balance. This study presents a system-theory-based model for river runoff forecasting taking the Hailiutu River as a case study. The forecasting model, designed for the Hailiutu watershed, was calibrated and verified by long-term precipitation observation data and groundwater exploitation data from the study area. Additionally, frequency analysis, taken as an optimization technique, was applied to improve prediction accuracy. Following model optimization, the overall relative prediction errors are below 10%. The system-theory-based prediction model is applicable to river runoff forecasting, and following optimization by frequency analysis, the prediction error is acceptable.</p></abstract>

River runoff is not only a crucial part of the global water cycle, but it is also an important source for hydropower and an essential element of water balance. This study presents a system-theory-based model for river runoff forecasting taking the Hailiutu River as a case study. The forecasting model, designed for the Hailiutu watershed, was calibrated and verified by long-term precipitation observation data and groundwater exploitation data from the study area. Additionally, frequency analysis, taken as an optimization technique, was applied to improve prediction accuracy. Following model optimization, the overall relative prediction errors are below 10%. The system-theory-based prediction model is applicable to river runoff forecasting, and following optimization by frequency analysis, the prediction error is acceptable.

A system-theory-based model for monthly river runoff forecasting: model calibration and optimization

School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Chang’an University, No. 126 Yanta Road, Xi’an, 710054, Shaanxi, China

Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Ecology in Arid Areas, Ministry of Education, No. 126 Yanta Road, Xi’an, 710054, China

College of Geology Engineering and Geomatics, Chang'an University, No. 126 Yanta Road, Xi’an, 710054, Shaanxi, China

Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics

River runoff is not only a crucial part of the global water cycle, but it is also an important source for hydropower and an essential element of water balance....

A system-theory-based model for monthly river runoff forecasting: model calibration and optimization

Published Online: Feb 13, 2014

Page range: 82 - 88

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/johh-2014-0006

This content is open access.