<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">

<p>In this article, I propose a new contribution to the field of comparative analysis of state conventional military capabilities. First, I review perspectives of other scholars on the merits of comparing capabilities, arguing that the most accessible insights lie in evaluating the signals sent by state arsenals rather than in predicting conflict outcomes judging from state armament. Second, I present the Conventional Firepower Potential Indexing (CFPI) method and demonstrate that coding for tactical role and degree of technological sophistication enables previously unfeasible estimative comparisons of deterrent signalling value. Finally, I apply CFPI analysis to the conventional arsenals of the United States and the four states named in that country’s most recent National Defense Strategy (China, Russia, North Korea and Iran), deriving conclusions that would be elusive without accessible comparative analysis.</p>
</abstract>

In this article, I propose a new contribution to the field of comparative analysis of state conventional military capabilities. First, I review perspectives of other scholars on the merits of comparing capabilities, arguing that the most accessible insights lie in evaluating the signals sent by state arsenals rather than in predicting conflict outcomes judging from state armament. Second, I present the Conventional Firepower Potential Indexing (CFPI) method and demonstrate that coding for tactical role and degree of technological sophistication enables previously unfeasible estimative comparisons of deterrent signalling value. Finally, I apply CFPI analysis to the conventional arsenals of the United States and the four states named in that country’s most recent National Defense Strategy (China, Russia, North Korea and Iran), deriving conclusions that would be elusive without accessible comparative analysis.

Apples to apples, fighters to submarines: comparative analysis of conventional capability-based signalling capacity through technologically weighted state arsenal indexing

Journal of Military Studies

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

In this article, I propose a new contribution to the field of comparative analysis of state conventional military capabilities. First, I review perspectives of...

Apples to apples, fighters to submarines: comparative analysis of conventional capability-based signalling capacity through technologically weighted state arsenal indexing

Article Category: Original Study

Published Online: Mar 11, 2024

Page range: 85 - 103

Received: Oct 11, 2021

Accepted: Sep 22, 2023

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/jms-2023-0007

Keywords
strategy, strategic signalling, capabilities, conventional technology, international politics

© 2023 Lee Habib Roberts, published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Apples to apples, fighters to submarines: comparative analysis of conventional capability-based signalling capacity through technologically weighted state arsenal indexing

Article Category: Original Study

Published Online: Mar 11, 2024

Page range: 85 - 103

Received: Oct 11, 2021

Accepted: Sep 22, 2023

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/jms-2023-0007

Keywordsstrategy, strategic signalling, capabilities, conventional technology, international politics

© 2023 Lee Habib Roberts, published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Keywords
strategy, strategic signalling, capabilities, conventional technology, international politics