<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p>Accurate and reliable air passenger demand is very important for policy-making and planning by tourism management as well as by airline authorities. Therefore, this article proposed a novel hybrid method based on rough set theory (RST) to construct decision rules for long-term forecasting of air passengers. Level (mean) and trend components are first estimated from the air passengers time series data using DES model in the formulation of the proposed hybrid method. Then the rough set theory is employed to combine the output of DES model and generated decision rules is used to forecasting air passengers. We compare the proposed approach with other time series models using a corrected classified accuracy (CCA) criterion. For the empirical analysis, yearly air transport passenger from 1992 to 2004 is used. Empirical results show that the proposed method is highly accurate with the higher corrected classified accuracy. Also, forecasting accuracy of the proposed method is better than the other time series approaches.</p></abstract>

Accurate and reliable air passenger demand is very important for policy-making and planning by tourism management as well as by airline authorities. Therefore, this article proposed a novel hybrid method based on rough set theory (RST) to construct decision rules for long-term forecasting of air passengers. Level (mean) and trend components are first estimated from the air passengers time series data using DES model in the formulation of the proposed hybrid method. Then the rough set theory is employed to combine the output of DES model and generated decision rules is used to forecasting air passengers. We compare the proposed approach with other time series models using a corrected classified accuracy (CCA) criterion. For the empirical analysis, yearly air transport passenger from 1992 to 2004 is used. Empirical results show that the proposed method is highly accurate with the higher corrected classified accuracy. Also, forecasting accuracy of the proposed method is better than the other time series approaches.

Air passengers forecasting for Australian airline based on hybrid rough set approach

Department of Mathematics, National Institute of Technology

Journal of Applied Mathematics, Statistics and Informatics

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Accurate and reliable air passenger demand is very important for policy-making and planning by tourism management as well as by airline authorities. Therefore,...

Air passengers forecasting for Australian airline based on hybrid rough set approach

Published Online: Jun 19, 2018

Page range: 5 - 18

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/jamsi-2018-0001

Keywords
Air passengers, Forecasting, Hybrid approach, Rough set, DES model, Grey model

© 2018 Faculty of Natural Sciences, University of Saint Cyril and Metodius, published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Air passengers forecasting for Australian airline based on hybrid rough set approach

Published Online: Jun 19, 2018

Page range: 5 - 18

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/jamsi-2018-0001

KeywordsAir passengers, Forecasting, Hybrid approach, Rough set, DES model, Grey model

© 2018 Faculty of Natural Sciences, University of Saint Cyril and Metodius, published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Keywords
Air passengers, Forecasting, Hybrid approach, Rough set, DES model, Grey model