1. bookVolume 4 (2013): Issue 3 (December 2013)
    Brain Emulation and Connectomics: a Convergence of Neuroscience and Artificial General Intelligence, Editors: Randal Koene and Diana Deca
Journal Details
License
Format
Journal
First Published
23 Nov 2011
Publication timeframe
3 times per year
Languages
English
access type Open Access

Will We Hit a Wall? Forecasting Bottlenecks to Whole Brain Emulation Development

Published Online: 25 Apr 2014
Page range: 153 - 163
Received: 01 Jun 2013
Accepted: 09 Dec 2013
Journal Details
License
Format
Journal
First Published
23 Nov 2011
Publication timeframe
3 times per year
Languages
English

Whole brain emulation (WBE) is the possible replication of human brain dynamics that reproduces human behavior. If created, WBE would have significant impact on human society, and forecasts frequently place WBE as arriving within a century. However, WBE would be a complex technology with a complex network of prerequisite technologies. Most forecasts only consider a fraction of this technology network. The unconsidered portions of the network may contain bottlenecks, which are slowly-developing technologies that would impede the development of WBE. Here I describe how bottlenecks in the network can be non-obvious, and the merits of identifying them early. I show that bottlenecks may be predicted even with noisy forecasts. Accurate forecasts of WBE development must incorporate potential bottlenecks, which can be found using detailed descriptions of the WBE technology network. Bottlenecks identification can also increase the impact of WBE researchers by directing effort to those technologies that will immediately affect the timeline of WBE development

Keywords

Cattell, R., and Parker, A. 2012. Challenges for Brain Emulation : Why is Building a Brain so Difficult ? Natural Intelligence 1(3).Search in Google Scholar

Deca, D. 2012. Available Tools for Whole Brain Emulation. International Journal of Machine Consciousness 04(01):67-86.Search in Google Scholar

Dortmans, P. J. 2005. Forecasting, backcasting, migration landscapes and strategic planning maps. Futures 37(4):273-285.Search in Google Scholar

Dunn, P. 2009. Why hasn’t commercial air travel gotten any faster since the 1960s? MIT Engineering.Search in Google Scholar

Fiala, J. 2002. Three-dimensional structure of synapses in the brain and on theWeb. Proceedings of the 2002 International Joint Conference on Neural Networks. IJCNN’02 (Cat. No.02CH37290) 1-4.Search in Google Scholar

Hanson, R. 1994. If Uploads Come First: The Crack of a Future Dawn. Extropy 6(2).Search in Google Scholar

Hanson, R. 2009. The Economics of Brain Emulations. In Healey, P., and Rayner, S., eds., Unnatural Selection: The Challenges of Engineering Tomorrow’s People. Sterling, VA: Earthscan.Search in Google Scholar

Hausmann, R.; Hidalgo, C. A.; Bustos, S.; Coscia, M.; Chung, S.; Jimenez, J.; Simoes, A.; and Yıldırım, M. A. 2011. The Atlas of Economic Complexity.Search in Google Scholar

Izhikevich, E. M., and Edelman, G. M. 2008. Large-scale model of mammalian thalamocortical systems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105(9):3593-8.Search in Google Scholar

Karr, J. R.; Sanghvi, J. C.; Macklin, D. N.; Gutschow, M. V.; Jacobs, J. M.; Bolival, B.; Assad- Garcia, N.; Glass, J. I.; and Covert, M. W. 2012. A whole-cell computational model predicts phenotype from genotype. Cell 150(2):389-401.Search in Google Scholar

Koene, R. A. 2012. Toward tractable AGI : Challenges for System Identification in Neural Circuitry. In Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), 136-147.Search in Google Scholar

Kurzweil, R. 2012. How to Create a Mind: The Secret of Human Thought Revealed. Viking Adult.Search in Google Scholar

Lewis, J. S., and Niedzwiecki, R. W. 1999. Aircraft Technology and Its Relation to Emissions. In Penner, J. E.; Lister, D. H.; Griggs, D. J.; Dokken, D. J.; and McFarland, M., eds., Aviation and the Global Atmosphere. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Search in Google Scholar

McNerney, J.; Farmer, J. D.; Redner, S.; and Trancik, J. E. 2011. Role of design complexity in technology improvement. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 108(22):9008-2013.Search in Google Scholar

Meier, S., and Shelley, B. 1991. Civilization. MicroProse.Search in Google Scholar

Parker, A. C.; Friesz, A. K.; and Pakdaman, A. 2006. Towards a Nanoscale Artificial Cortex. In The 2006 International Conference on Computing in Nanotechnology.Search in Google Scholar

Peeters, P. M.; Middel, J.; and Hoolhorst, A. 2005. Fuel efficiency of commercial aircraft: An overview of historical and future trends. Technical Report November, National Aerospace Laboratory NLR.Search in Google Scholar

Sandberg, A., and Bostrom, N. 2008. Whole Brain Emulation: A Roadmap. Technical report, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University.Search in Google Scholar

Sandberg, A. 2013. Feasibility of Whole Brain Emulation. In M¨uller, V. C., ed., Theory and Philosophy of Artificial Intelligence. Berlin: Springer. 251-264.Search in Google Scholar

Shores, C. 2011. Misbehaving Machines: The Emulated Brains of Transhumanist Dreams. Journal of Evolution and Technology 10-22.Search in Google Scholar

Solé, R. V.; Valverde, S.; Casals, M. R.; Kauffman, S. A.; Farmer, D.; and Eldredge, N. 2013. The Evolutionary Ecology of Technological Innovations. 18(4):15-27.Search in Google Scholar

Tëmkin, I., and Eldredge, N. 2007. Phylogenetics and Material Cultural Evolution. Current Anthropology 48(1):146-153.Search in Google Scholar

Tresham, F. 1980. Civilization. Hartland Trefoil.Search in Google Scholar

Valverde, S., and Sol´e, R. 2007. Self-organization versus hierarchy in open-source social networks. Physical Review E 76(4):046118.Search in Google Scholar

Walter, C. 2005. Kryder’s Law. Scientific American. Search in Google Scholar

Recommended articles from Trend MD

Plan your remote conference with Sciendo