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Does the early release of retirement savings prolong labor market participation for workers approaching retirement? Evidence from Australia's “Transition to Retirement Income Streams” program


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Figure 1

Derived employment rates for individuals aged 56 years.NIFW, net income from working; SW, salary and wage.
Derived employment rates for individuals aged 56 years.NIFW, net income from working; SW, salary and wage.

Figure 2

“TRIS-like-behavior”, using NIFW Indicator 2 TRIS rule.NIFW, net income from working; TRIS, Transition to Retirement Income Streams.
“TRIS-like-behavior”, using NIFW Indicator 2 TRIS rule.NIFW, net income from working; TRIS, Transition to Retirement Income Streams.

Figure 3

Reported SMSF TRIS, males and females pooled.SMSF, self-managed superannuation funds; TRIS, Transition to Retirement Income Streams.
Reported SMSF TRIS, males and females pooled.SMSF, self-managed superannuation funds; TRIS, Transition to Retirement Income Streams.

Figure 4

Rolling D-i-D estimates – 54 years vs 56 years of age, males.D-i-D, difference-in-differences; NIFW, net income from working; SW, salary and wage.
Rolling D-i-D estimates – 54 years vs 56 years of age, males.D-i-D, difference-in-differences; NIFW, net income from working; SW, salary and wage.

Figure 5

Rolling D-i-D estimates – 54 years vs 56 years of age, females.D-i-D, difference-in-differences; NIFW, net income from working; SW, salary and wage.
Rolling D-i-D estimates – 54 years vs 56 years of age, females.D-i-D, difference-in-differences; NIFW, net income from working; SW, salary and wage.

Figure 6

Trends in employment rates (NIFW Indicator 2).NIFW, net income from working.
Trends in employment rates (NIFW Indicator 2).NIFW, net income from working.

Figure A1

A tax-effective strategy.
A tax-effective strategy.

Figure A2

Historical concessional contributions caps.
Historical concessional contributions caps.

Summary statistics before and after the introduction of TRIS, females

Control period Treatment 1 Treatment 2



2004–05 2005–06 2006–07



Mean Std. dev. Mean Std. dev. Mean Std. dev.
ITR, PAYG, plus ABS estimates
  Income year 2004–05 0.00 2005–06 0.00 2006–07 0.00
  Age at June 30 54.98 1.00 54.99 1.00 54.98 1.00
Employment rates
  NIFW Indicator 2 0.69 0.46 0.71 0.46 0.72 0.45
  NIFW Indicator 3 0.62 0.49 0.64 0.48 0.66 0.47
  SW indicator 0.61 0.49 0.63 0.48 0.65 0.48
Earned income
  NIFW Indicator 2 ($) 35,971 29,205 38,557 32,599 41,412 36,773
  NIFW Indicator 3 ($) 36,616 27,720 39,237 30,703 41,915 33,900
  SW indicator ($) 36,251 26,713 38,861 29,807 41,385 32,733
Observations (number) 252,876 na 256,564 na 261,864 na
ITR observations only
  Income year 2004–05 0.00 2005–06 0.00 2006–07 0.00
  Age at June 30 54.96 1.00 54.97 1.00 54.96 1.00
Employment rates
  NIFW Indicator 2 0.88 0.32 0.89 0.31 0.90 0.30
  NIFW Indicator 3 0.79 0.41 0.80 0.40 0.82 0.39
  SW indicator 0.78 0.42 0.79 0.41 0.80 0.40
Earned income
  NIFW Indicator 2 ($) 36,353 29,213 35,699 31,473 41,818 36,853
  NIFW Indicator 3 ($) 37,060 27,679 39,696 30,705 42,380 33,909
  SW indicator ($) 36,692 26,649 39,317 29,790 41,838 32,729
Controls
  Reported spouse 0.51 0.50 0.56 0.50 0.56 0.50
  Self-prepared tax return 0.23 0.42 0.23 0.42 0.24 0.43
  Business and PSI income 0.05 0.22 0.05 0.22 0.06 0.24
  Partnership and trust income 0.26 0.44 0.25 0.43 0.24 0.42
  Dividend income 0.40 0.49 0.38 0.49 0.37 0.48
  Rental income 0.20 0.40 0.20 0.40 0.21 0.40
Remoteness
  Major cities 0.69 0.46 0.69 0.46 0.69 0.46
  Inner regional 0.20 0.40 0.20 0.40 0.20 0.40
  Outer regional 0.08 0.28 0.08 0.28 0.08 0.28
  Remote and very remote 0.01 0.12 0.01 0.12 0.01 0.12
  Not available 0.01 0.08 0.01 0.09 0.01 0.10
Observations (number) 192,587 na 199,174 na 206,331 na

Hypothetical TRIS use cases in 2005–06

Intended use: reducing labor ($ 000s) Moderate use: bolstering income ($ 000s) Aggressive use: tax planning ($ 000s) Notes
Benchmark
A Earnings from work 80.0 100.0 140.0
B Income tax on earnings 21.9 30.6 49.4 2004–05 schedule
C Posttax earnings 58.1 69.5 90.7 =A – B
D Employer contributions 7.2 9.0 12.6 =A*0.09a
E Salary-sacrificed contributions 0.0 0.0 0.0
F Tax on contributions 1.1 1.4 1.9 =(D+E)*0.15
Using TRIS
H Earnings from work 56.0 100.0 0.0
I TRIS 19.1 25.0 35.0 =R*0.1b
J Assessable income 75.1 125.0 35.0 =H+I
K Tax on earnings 19.8 42.8 6.4 2004–05 schedule
L TRIS tax offset 2.9 3.8 5.3 =H*0.15
M Tax minus TRIS offset 17.0 39.0 1.1 =K+L
N Posttax earnings 58.1 86.0 33.9 =J – M
O Employer contributions 5.0 9.0 12.6 =H*.09a
P Salary-sacrificed contributions 0.0 0.0 140.0
Q Tax on contributions 0.8 1.4 22.9 =O+P*0.15
R Superannuation balance 200.0 250.0 350.0 A*2.5c
Difference
S After-tax earnings 0.0 16.6 −56.8 =N – C
T Tax on income −4.9 8.5 −48.2 =M – B
U Super contributions −2.2 0.0 140.0 =O+P – D
V Tax on contributions −0.3 0.0 21.0 =Q – F
W Tax paid −5.3 8.5 −27.2 =U+W

“Net income from working Indicator 2”: adjusted Australian Taxation Office definition

Net income from working
= Total gross salary and wage payments (1)
+ Income from allowances, earnings, tips, director's fees, etc. (2)
+ Attributed personal services income (3)
+ Total reportable fringe benefits (RFB) amounts (if RFB ≥ RFB threshold) (4)
Work-related car expenses (5)
Work-related travel expenses (6)
Work-related clothing expenses (7)
Work-related self-education expenses (8)
Other work-related expenses (9)
Low-value pool deductiona (10)
+ Net income from working (Appendix section)b (11)
+ Total employer superannuation contributions (12)

Labor supply rates in periods before and after the introduction of TRIS

Pre-TRIS 2004–05(1) TRIS 2005–06(2) Difference (2 – 1)(3) Difference-in-difference(4)
Males
A NIFW Indicator 2
Treatment (age: 56 years) [249,728] 0.7977 (0.0011) 0.8080 (0.0011) 0.0102*** (0.0016)
Control (age: 54 years) [256,949] 0.8317 (0.001) 0.8432 (0.001) 0.0115*** (0.0015) −0.0013 (0.0022)
B NIFW Indicator 3
Treatment (age: 56 years) [249,728] 0.6729 (0.0013) 0.6867 (0.0013) 0.0138*** (0.0019)
Control (age: 54 years) [256,949] 0.7111 (0.0013) 0.7234 (0.0012) 0.0124*** (0.0018) 0.0014 (0.0026)
C Salary and wage indicator
Treatment (age: 56 years) [249,728] 0.6557 (0.0014) 0.6711 (0.0013) 0.0154*** (0.0019)
Control (age: 54 years) [256,949] 0.6962 (0.0013) 0.7089 (0.0013) 0.0127*** (0.0018) 0.0027 (0.0026)
Females
D NIFW Indicator 2
Treatment (age: 56 years) [250,487] 0.6603 (0.0013) 0.6778 (0.0013) 0.0175*** (0.0019)
Control (age: 54 years) [258,953] 0.7168 (0.0013) 0.7362 (0.0012) 0.0194*** (0.0018) −0.0019 (0.0026)
E NIFW Indicator 3
Treatment (age: 56 years) [250,487] 0.5873 (0.0014) 0.6060 (0.0014) 0.0186*** (0.002)
Control (age: 54 years) [258,953] 0.6476 (0.0013) 0.6687 (0.0013) 0.0212*** (0.0019) −0.0025 (0.0027)
F Salary and wage indicator
Treatment (age: 56 years) [250,487] 0.5765 (0.0014) 0.5959 (0.0014) 0.0194*** (0.002)
Control (age: 54 years) [258,953] 0.6387 (0.0013) 0.6597 (0.0013) 0.0211*** (0.0019) −0.0017 (0.0027)

TRIS effects on “labor supply” and “earnings” (D-i-D coefficients)

2004–05 vs 2005–06(1) 2004–05 vs 2006–07(2)
ITR, PAYG, and ABS estimates 54 years vs 56 years 54 years vs 56 years
Labor supply Males
NIFW 2 D-i-D (TRIS · Age) −0.0013 [0.0022] 0.0052** [0.0021]
NIFW 3 D-i-D (TRIS · Age) 0.0014 [0.0026] 0.0102*** [0.0026]
Salary and wage D-i-D (TRIS · Age) 0.0027 [0.0026] 0.0101*** [0.0026]
Females
NIFW 2 D-i-D (TRIS · Age) −0.0019 [0.0026] −0.0008 [0.0025]
NIFW 3 D-i-D (TRIS · Age) −0.0025 [0.0027] 0.0001 [0.0027]
Salary and wage D-i-D (TRIS · Age) −0.0017 [0.0027] 0.0003 [0.0027]

ITR and PAYG data 54 years vs 56 years 54 years vs 56 years
Earned income Males
NIFW 2 D-i-D (TRIS · Age) 0.0173** [0.0073] 0.0244*** [0.0073]
NIFW 3 D-i-D (TRIS · Age) 0.0018 [0.0079] 0.0161** [0.0079]
Salary and wage D-i-D (TRIS · Age) 0.0021 [0.0080] 0.0179** [0.0080]
Females
NIFW 2 D-i-D (TRIS · Age) −0.0080 [0.0083] 0.0012 [0.0082]
NIFW 3 D-i-D (TRIS · Age) −0.0175** [0.0084] −0.0099 [0.0082]
Salary and wage D-i-D (TRIS · Age) −0.0190** [0.0084] −0.0084 [0.0083]

2006–07 vs 2007–08 2006–07 vs 2008–09

ITR, PAYG, and ABS estimates 59 years vs 61 years 59 years vs 61 years
Labor supply Males
NIFW 2 D-i-D (TRIS · Age) 0.0247*** [0.0026] 0.0110*** [0.0026]
NIFW 3 D-i-D (TRIS · Age) 0.0253*** [0.0028] 0.0136*** [0.0028]
Salary and wage D-i-D (TRIS · Age) 0.0238*** [0.0028] 0.0115*** [0.0029]
Females
NIFW 2 D-i-D (TRIS · Age) 0.0134*** [0.0029] 0.0058** [0.0029]
NIFW 3 D-i-D (TRIS · Age) 0.0113*** [0.0029] 0.0058** [0.0029]
Salary and wage D-i-D (TRIS · Age) 0.0113*** [0.0029] 0.0050* [0.0029]

ITR and PAYG data 59 years vs 61 years 59 years vs 61 years
Earned income Males
NIFW 2 D-i-D (TRIS · Age) 0.0024 [0.0088] 0.0020 [0.0092]
NIFW 3 D-i-D (TRIS · Age) −0.0149 [0.0093] −0.0133 [0.0097]
Salary and wage D-i-D (TRIS · Age) −0.0166 [0.0102] −0.0110 [0.0099]
Females
NIFW 2 D-i-D (TRIS · Age) 0.0074 [0.0112] 0.0137 [0.0111]
NIFW 3 D-i-D (TRIS · Age) −0.0229** [0.0113] −0.0197* [0.0111]
Salary and wage D-i-D (TRIS · Age) −0.0263** [0.0114] −0.0217* [0.0111]

TRIS adoption – descriptive analysis, females

Without controls Plus age Additional controls



(1) (2) (3)
Income tax return data only
Intercept 0.0051*** [0.0001] −0.0228*** [0.0001] −0.0728*** [0.0004]
D2006 0.0006*** [0.0001] 0.0003*** [0.0001] 0.0005*** [0.0001]
D2007 0.0017*** [0.0002] 0.0015*** [0.0001] 0.0017*** [0.0001]
D2008 0.0170*** [0.0002] 0.0169*** [0.0002] 0.0172*** [0.0002]
D2009 0.0244*** [0.0002] 0.0243*** [0.0002] 0.0257*** [0.0002]
D2010 0.0302*** [0.0002] 0.0301*** [0.0002] 0.0299*** [0.0002]
D2011 0.0335*** [0.0002] 0.0334*** [0.0002] 0.0330*** [0.0002]
D2012 0.0366*** [0.0002] 0.0365*** [0.0002] 0.0356*** [0.0002]
D2013 0.0377*** [0.0002] 0.0376*** [0.0002] 0.0369*** [0.0002]
D2014 0.0388*** [0.0002] 0.0386*** [0.0002] 0.0379*** [0.0002]
D2015 0.0401*** [0.0002] 0.0399*** [0.0002] 0.0400*** [0.0003]
Age at June 30
Age 54 years 0.0003*** [0.0000] 0.0002*** [0.0000]
Age 55 years 0.0186*** [0.0001] 0.0181*** [0.0001]
Age 56 years 0.0361*** [0.0002] 0.0355*** [0.0002]
Age 57 years 0.0459*** [0.0002] 0.0454*** [0.0002]
Age 58 years 0.0531*** [0.0002] 0.0525*** [0.0002]
Age 59 years 0.0529*** [0.0003] 0.0524*** [0.0002]
Additional controls
Log(Taxable income) 0.0046*** [0.0000]
Negative taxable income 0.0480*** [0.0006]
Self-prepared return −0.0067*** [0.0002]
Reported partner −0.0045*** [0.0002]
PSI income 0.0017*** [0.0004]
Business and partnership 0.0107*** [0.0003]
income
Dividend income 0.0135*** [0.0002]
Rental income 0.0053*** [0.0003]
Remoteness
  Inner regional 0.0008** [0.0003]
  Outer regional −0.0063*** [0.0004]
  Remote and very −0.0156*** [0.0006]
  remote
  Not available −0.0095*** [0.0004]
Observations 8,182,689 8,182,689 8,182,689
R-squared 0.0079 0.0242 0.0311

TRIS measures versus APRA statistics, 55–59 year age range, 2014–151

APRA-regulated funds SMSFs


Female Male Total Female Male Total
Count of TRIS recipients (’000s)
A NIFW Indicator 2 30 35 65 7 7 14
B NIFW Indicator 3 27 31 58 6 5 11
C SW indicator 26 30 56 5 5 10
D APRA 55–59 21 26 47 na na na
E APRA 60–64 40 52 92 na na na
F APRA 65–69 3 4 7 na na na
Total TRIS payments ($ million)
G NIFW Indicator 2 342 498 840 125 182 307
H NIFW Indicator 3 298 432 730 98 140 237
I SW indicator 282 408 690 87 122 208
J APRA 55–59 204 325 529 na na na
K APRA 60–64 438 801 1,239 na na na
L APRA 65–69 38 72 110 na na na

TRIS effects on “labor supply” and “earnings” (double age grouping D-i-D coefficients)

2004–05 vs 2005–06 2004–05 vs 2006–07


(1) (2)
ITR, PAYG, and ABS estimates 53–54 vs 56–57 53–54 vs 56–57
Labor supply Males
NIFW Indicator 2 D-i-D (TRIS · Age) 0.0100*** [0.0015] 0.0144*** [0.0015]
NIFW Indicator 3 D-i-D (TRIS · Age) 0.0116*** [0.0018] 0.0178*** [0.0018]
SW indicator D-i-D (TRIS · Age) 0.0125*** [0.0018] 0.0185*** [0.0018]
Females
NIFW Indicator 2 D-i-D (TRIS · Age) 0.0062*** [0.0018] 0.0099*** [0.0018]
NIFW Indicator 3 D-i-D (TRIS · Age) 0.0057*** [0.0019] 0.0103*** [0.0019]
SW indicator D-i-D (TRIS · Age) 0.0063*** [0.0019] 0.0105*** [0.0019]

ITR and PAYG data 53–54 vs 56–57 53–54 vs 56–57
Earned income Males
NIFW Indicator 2 D-i-D (TRIS · Age) 0.0153*** [0.0052] 0.0264*** [0.0052]
NIFW Indicator 3 D-i-D (TRIS · Age) 0.0045 [0.0056] 0.0132** [0.0056]
SW indicator D-i-D (TRIS · Age) 0.0037 [0.0057] 0.0110* [0.0057]
Females
NIFW Indicator 2 D-i-D (TRIS · Age) −0.0037 [0.0059] 0.0048 [0.0058]
NIFW Indicator 3 D-i-D (TRIS · Age) −0.0037 [0.0059] −0.0019 [0.0059]
SW indicator D-i-D (TRIS · Age) −0.0069 [0.0059] −0.0026 [0.0059]

2006–07 vs 2007–08 2006–07 vs 2008–09

ITR, PAYG, and ABS estimates 58–59 vs 61–62 58–59 vs 61–62
Labor supply Males
NIFW Indicator 2 D-i-D (TRIS · Age) 0.0059*** [0.0019] 0.0133*** [0.0018]
NIFW Indicator 3 D-i-D (TRIS · Age) 0.0094*** [0.0020] 0.0146*** [0.0020]
SW indicator D-i-D (TRIS · Age) 0.0092*** [0.0020] 0.0137*** [0.0020]
Females
NIFW Indicator 2 D-i-D (TRIS · Age) 0.0022 [0.0020] 0.0072*** [0.0020]
NIFW Indicator 3 D-i-D (TRIS · Age) 0.0022 [0.0020] 0.0078*** [0.0020]
SW indicator D-i-D (TRIS · Age) 0.0022 [0.0020] 0.0073*** [0.0020]

ITR and PAYG data 58–59 vs 61–62 58–59 vs 61–62
Earned income Males
NIFW Indicator 2 D-i-D (TRIS · Age) 0.0026 [0.0067] 0.0065 [0.0066]
NIFW Indicator 3 D-i-D (TRIS · Age) −0.0141* [0.0072] −0.0046 [0.0070]
SW indicator D-i-D (TRIS · Age) −0.0191*** [0.0074] −0.0064 [0.0071]
Females
NIFW Indicator 2 D-i-D (TRIS · Age) 0.0048 [0.0081] 0.0183** [0.0079]
NIFW Indicator 3 D-i-D (TRIS · Age) −0.0180** [0.0082] −0.0126 [0.0079]
SW indicator D-i-D (TRIS · Age) −0.2060** [0.0083] −0.0142* [0.0079]

Data sources

Worked Did not work
Filed Income tax return data Income tax return data
Did not file PAYG payment summary data (for salary and wage payments only) Residual population calculated from ABS estimates

TRIS adoption – descriptive analysis, males

Without controls Plus age Additional controls



(1) (2) (3)
Income tax return data only
Intercept 0.0096*** [0.0001] −0.0255*** [0.0001] −0.0854*** [0.0005]
D2006 0.0008*** [0.0001] 0.0003*** [0.0001] −0.0000 [0.0001]
D2007 0.0027*** [0.0001] 0.0025*** [0.0001] 0.0021*** [0.0001]
D2008 0.0212*** [0.0002] 0.0211*** [0.0002] 0.0208*** [0.0002]
D2009 0.0320*** [0.0002] 0.0320*** [0.0002] 0.0322*** [0.0002]
D2010 0.0376*** [0.0003] 0.0378*** [0.0003] 0.0363*** [0.0003]
D2011 0.0398*** [0.0003] 0.0400*** [0.0003] 0.0382*** [0.0003]
D2012 0.0412*** [0.0003] 0.0415*** [0.0003] 0.0396*** [0.0003]
D2013 0.0397*** [0.0003] 0.0401*** [0.0003] 0.0373*** [0.0003]
D2014 0.0388*** [0.0003] 0.0392*** [0.0003] 0.0365*** [0.0003]
D2015 0.0395*** [0.0003] 0.0398*** [0.0003] 0.0380*** [0.0003]
Age at June 30
Age 54 years 0.0005*** [0.0000] 0.0003*** [0.0000]
Age 55 years 0.0219*** [0.0001] 0.0215*** [0.0001]
Age 56 years 0.0433*** [0.0002] 0.0427*** [0.0002]
Age 57 years 0.0563*** [0.0002] 0.0557*** [0.0002]
Age 58 years 0.0660*** [0.0002] 0.0654*** [0.0002]
Age 59 years 0.0672*** [0.0002] 0.0666*** [0.0002]
Additional controls
Log(Taxable income) 0.0046*** [0.0000]
Negative taxable income 0.0463*** [0.0006]
Self-prepared return −0.0012*** [0.0003]
Reported partner −0.0083*** [0.0002]
PSI income −0.0022*** [0.0003]
Business and partnership 0.0046*** [0.0003]
income
Dividend income 0.0168*** [0.0002]
Rental income 0.0062*** [0.0003]
Remoteness
  Inner regional 0.0022*** [0.0003]
  Outer regional −0.0078*** [0.0004]
  Remote and very −0.0189*** [0.0006]
  remote
  Not available −0.0133*** [0.0005]
Observations 8,809,835 8,809,835 8,809,835
R-squared 0.0074 0.0280 0.0346

Summary statistics before and after the introduction of TRIS, males

Control period Treatment 1 Treatment 2



2004–05 2005–06 2006–07



Mean Std. dev. Mean Std. dev. Mean Std. dev.
ITR, PAYG, plus ABS estimates
  Income year 2004–05 0.00 2005–06 0.00 2006–07 0.00
  Age at June 30 54.98 1.00 54.99 1.00 54.98 1.00
Employment rates
  NIFW Indicator 2 0.82 0.39 0.83 0.38 0.83 0.38
  NIFW Indicator 3 0.69 0.46 0.71 0.46 0.71 0.45
  SW indicator 0.68 0.47 0.69 0.46 0.70 0.46
Earned income
  NIFW Indicator 2 ($) 56,419 74,440 60,311 92,301 64,771 93,301
  NIFW Indicator 3 ($) 57,697 63,970 61,602 87,307 65,952 83,799
  SW indicator ($) 57,908 60,298 61,928 82,835 66350 81,510
Observations (number) 251,666 na 255,011 na 258,715 na
ITR observations only
  Income year 2004–05 0.00 2005–06 0.00 2006–07 0.00
  Age at June 30 54.98 1.00 54.98 1.00 54.97 1.00
Employment rates
  NIFW Indicator 2 0.93 0.25 0.94 0.25 0.94 0.24
  NIFW Indicator 3 0.79 0.41 0.80 0.40 0.80 0.40
  SW indicator 0.77 0.42 0.78 0.42 0.79 0.41
Earned income
  NIFW Indicator 2 ($) 57,099 75,080 61,023 93,193 65,536 94,171
  NIFW Indicator 3 ($) 58,539 64,496 62,477 88,249 66,881 84,624
  SW indicator ($) 58,777 60,751 62,832 83,706 67,311 82,302
Controls
  Reported spouse 0.59 0.49 0.62 0.48 0.62 0.48
  Self-prepared tax return 0.20 0.40 0.20 0.40 0.20 0.40
  Business and PSI income 0.11 0.32 0.11 0.32 0.12 0.33
  Partnership and trust income 0.21 0.41 0.20 0.40 0.20 0.40
  Dividend income 0.39 0.49 0.37 0.48 0.37 0.48
  Rental income 0.21 0.41 0.21 0.41 0.22 0.41
Remoteness
  Major cities 0.68 0.47 0.68 0.47 0.67 0.47
  Inner regional 0.20 0.40 0.21 0.40 0.21 0.41
  Outer regional 0.09 0.29 0.09 0.29 0.09 0.29
  Remote and very remote 0.02 0.13 0.02 0.13 0.02 0.13
  Not available 0.01 0.09 0.01 0.10 0.01 0.11
Observations (number) 214,771 na 219,504 na 222,946 na