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The revolution is dead, long live the demolition: Education and labor market consequences of student riots

Ahmet Ozturk
Ahmet Ozturk
 and 
Semih Tumen
Semih Tumen
   | Dec 04, 2023
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Published Online: Dec 04, 2023
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Received: Dec 27, 2022
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/izajole-2023-0004
Keywords
© 2023 Ahmet Ozturk et al., published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Figure 1

Number of terrorist attacks in Turkey (1970–1985).Source: National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START), 2016. Global Terrorism Database [GTD from 1970 to 1991]. Retrieved from https://www.start.umd.edu/Gtd.
Number of terrorist attacks in Turkey (1970–1985).Source: National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START), 2016. Global Terrorism Database [GTD from 1970 to 1991]. Retrieved from https://www.start.umd.edu/Gtd.

Figure 2

New enrollments in all higher-education institutions in Turkey (1965–1990).Source: Authors’ calculations based on National Education Statistics compiled by and Academic Year Higher Education Statistics compiled by OSYM.
New enrollments in all higher-education institutions in Turkey (1965–1990).Source: Authors’ calculations based on National Education Statistics compiled by and Academic Year Higher Education Statistics compiled by OSYM.

Figure 3

Average log hourly wages for men by age.Source: Authors’ calculations based on the 2005 Turkish HLFS.
Average log hourly wages for men by age.Source: Authors’ calculations based on the 2005 Turkish HLFS.

Figure 4

Coefficients of age dummies – Probability of completing post-secondary education.The specification includes region of residence, urban/rural, and gender dummies. Age 55 is the omitted age category. Observations are weighted using the sampling weights so that the results are nationally representative. Dashed lines indicate the 95-percent confidence interval based on standard errors clustered at region level.
Coefficients of age dummies – Probability of completing post-secondary education.The specification includes region of residence, urban/rural, and gender dummies. Age 55 is the omitted age category. Observations are weighted using the sampling weights so that the results are nationally representative. Dashed lines indicate the 95-percent confidence interval based on standard errors clustered at region level.

Figure 5

Coefficients of age dummies – Probability of completing post-secondary education (men).The specification includes region of residence and urban/rural dummies. Age 55 is the omitted age category. Observations are weighted using the sampling weights so that the results are nationally representative. Dashed lines indicate the 95-percent confidence interval based on standard errors clustered at region level.
Coefficients of age dummies – Probability of completing post-secondary education (men).The specification includes region of residence and urban/rural dummies. Age 55 is the omitted age category. Observations are weighted using the sampling weights so that the results are nationally representative. Dashed lines indicate the 95-percent confidence interval based on standard errors clustered at region level.

Figure 6

Coefficients of age dummies – Probability of completing post-secondary education (women).The specification includes region of residence and urban/rural dummies. Age 55 is the omitted age category. Observations are weighted using the sampling weights so that the results are nationally representative. Dashed lines indicate the 95-percent confidence interval based on standard errors clustered at region level.
Coefficients of age dummies – Probability of completing post-secondary education (women).The specification includes region of residence and urban/rural dummies. Age 55 is the omitted age category. Observations are weighted using the sampling weights so that the results are nationally representative. Dashed lines indicate the 95-percent confidence interval based on standard errors clustered at region level.

Figure 7

Coefficients of age dummies – Probability of high school graduation.The specification includes region of residence, urban/rural, and gender dummies. Age 55 is the omitted age category. Observations are weighted using the sampling weights so that the results are nationally representative. Dashed lines indicate the 95-percent confidence interval based on standard errors clustered at region level.
Coefficients of age dummies – Probability of high school graduation.The specification includes region of residence, urban/rural, and gender dummies. Age 55 is the omitted age category. Observations are weighted using the sampling weights so that the results are nationally representative. Dashed lines indicate the 95-percent confidence interval based on standard errors clustered at region level.

Figure 8

Coefficients of age dummies – Probability of graduation from elementary/primary school.The specification includes region of residence, urban/rural, and gender dummies. Age 55 is the omitted age category. Observations are weighted using the sampling weights so that the results are nationally representative. Dashed lines indicate the 95-percent confidence interval based on standard errors clustered at region level.
Coefficients of age dummies – Probability of graduation from elementary/primary school.The specification includes region of residence, urban/rural, and gender dummies. Age 55 is the omitted age category. Observations are weighted using the sampling weights so that the results are nationally representative. Dashed lines indicate the 95-percent confidence interval based on standard errors clustered at region level.

Figure 9

Coefficients of age dummies – Probability of wage employment.The specification includes region of residence, urban/rural, and gender dummies. Age 55 is the omitted age category. Observations are weighted using the sampling weights so that the results are nationally representative. Dashed lines indicate the 95-percent confidence interval based on standard errors clustered at region level.
Coefficients of age dummies – Probability of wage employment.The specification includes region of residence, urban/rural, and gender dummies. Age 55 is the omitted age category. Observations are weighted using the sampling weights so that the results are nationally representative. Dashed lines indicate the 95-percent confidence interval based on standard errors clustered at region level.

Figure 10

Coefficients of age dummies – Log hourly wages for male wage earners having only a high school degree.The sample includes male wage earners aged 40–51 having only high school degree. Log hourly wage is standardized to experience 26 years. The specification includes region of residence and urban/rural dummies. Age 51 is the omitted age category. Observations are weighted using the sampling weights so that the results are nationally representative. Dashed lines indicate the 95-percent confidence interval based on standard errors clustered at region level.
Coefficients of age dummies – Log hourly wages for male wage earners having only a high school degree.The sample includes male wage earners aged 40–51 having only high school degree. Log hourly wage is standardized to experience 26 years. The specification includes region of residence and urban/rural dummies. Age 51 is the omitted age category. Observations are weighted using the sampling weights so that the results are nationally representative. Dashed lines indicate the 95-percent confidence interval based on standard errors clustered at region level.

Figure 11

Coefficients of age dummies – Log hourly wages for male wage earners having only a postsecondary degree.The sample includes male wage earners aged 40–51 having only post-secondary degree. Log hourly wage is standardized to experience 26 years. The specification includes region of residence and urban/rural dummies. Age 51 is the omitted age category. Observations are weighted using the sampling weights so that the results are nationally representative. Dashed lines indicate the 95-percent confidence interval based on standard errors clustered at region level.
Coefficients of age dummies – Log hourly wages for male wage earners having only a postsecondary degree.The sample includes male wage earners aged 40–51 having only post-secondary degree. Log hourly wage is standardized to experience 26 years. The specification includes region of residence and urban/rural dummies. Age 51 is the omitted age category. Observations are weighted using the sampling weights so that the results are nationally representative. Dashed lines indicate the 95-percent confidence interval based on standard errors clustered at region level.

Figure 12

Coefficients of age dummies – Log hourly wages for men with at least a high school degree.The sample includes male wage earners aged 40–51 with at least a high school degree. Log hourly wage is standardized to experience 26 years. The specification includes region of residence and urban/rural dummies. Age 51 is the omitted age category. Observations are weighted using the sampling weights so that the results are nationally representative. Dashed lines indicate the 95-percent confidence interval based on standard errors clustered at region level.
Coefficients of age dummies – Log hourly wages for men with at least a high school degree.The sample includes male wage earners aged 40–51 with at least a high school degree. Log hourly wage is standardized to experience 26 years. The specification includes region of residence and urban/rural dummies. Age 51 is the omitted age category. Observations are weighted using the sampling weights so that the results are nationally representative. Dashed lines indicate the 95-percent confidence interval based on standard errors clustered at region level.

Figure 13

Average log hourly wages for men by age.Source: Authors’ calculations based on the 2005 Turkish HLFS. The red lines indicate the average log hourly wages for exposed and non-exposed individuals for the corresponding educational level.
Average log hourly wages for men by age.Source: Authors’ calculations based on the 2005 Turkish HLFS. The red lines indicate the average log hourly wages for exposed and non-exposed individuals for the corresponding educational level.

Figure 14

Actual and counterfactual density of log wages for male individuals in the 40–45 age group.The sample includes male wage earners of age 40–51. Observations are weighted using the sampling weights so that the results are nationally representative.
Actual and counterfactual density of log wages for male individuals in the 40–45 age group.The sample includes male wage earners of age 40–51. Observations are weighted using the sampling weights so that the results are nationally representative.

Figure 15

Coefficients of age dummies – Probability of being in the labor force.The specification includes region of residence and urban/rural dummies. Age 51 is the omitted age category. Observations are weighted using the sampling weights so that the results are nationally representative. Dashed lines indicate the 95-percent confidence interval based on standard errors clustered at region level.
Coefficients of age dummies – Probability of being in the labor force.The specification includes region of residence and urban/rural dummies. Age 51 is the omitted age category. Observations are weighted using the sampling weights so that the results are nationally representative. Dashed lines indicate the 95-percent confidence interval based on standard errors clustered at region level.

Figure 16

Coefficients of age dummies – Probability of being employed.The specification includes region of residence and urban/rural dummies. Age 51 is the omitted age category. Observations are weighted using the sampling weights so that the results are nationally representative. Dashed lines indicate the 95-percent confidence interval based on standard errors clustered at region level.
Coefficients of age dummies – Probability of being employed.The specification includes region of residence and urban/rural dummies. Age 51 is the omitted age category. Observations are weighted using the sampling weights so that the results are nationally representative. Dashed lines indicate the 95-percent confidence interval based on standard errors clustered at region level.

Figure 17

Coefficients of age dummies – Probability of being formally employed.The specification includes region of residence and urban/rural dummies. Age 51 is the omitted age category. Observations are weighted using the sampling weights so that the results are nationally representative. Dashed lines indicate the 95-percent confidence interval based on standard errors clustered at region level.
Coefficients of age dummies – Probability of being formally employed.The specification includes region of residence and urban/rural dummies. Age 51 is the omitted age category. Observations are weighted using the sampling weights so that the results are nationally representative. Dashed lines indicate the 95-percent confidence interval based on standard errors clustered at region level.

Fuzzy RDD estimates of the returns to college

Dependent variable: Log hourly wage
[1] [2] [3]
Treatment 0.5716*** (0.0935) 0.5629** (0.2425) 0.6492* (0.3777)
F-statistic (discontinuity) 140.13 18.63 8.24
Region of residence Yes Yes Yes
Urban/rural status Yes Yes Yes
# of observations 6,309 6,309 6,309
Polynomial degree – linear quadratic

OLS and 2SLS estimates of the returns to college with adjusted missing wages

Dependent variable: Log hourly wage
With missing values Adjusted for missing values
Panel A: Just-identified models
OLS 0.5025*** (0.0311) 0.5037*** (0.0310)
2SLS 0.5716*** (0.0935) 0.5744*** (0.0935)
F-statistic (first stage) 140.13 139.44
Panel B: Over-identified models
2SLS 0.5588*** (0.0841) 0.5601*** (0.0837)
LIML 0.5605*** (0.0865) 0.5618*** (0.0861)
F-statistic (first stage) 25.15 25.04
p-value Hansen's test 0.80 0.80
Region of residence Yes Yes
Urban/rural status Yes Yes
# of observations 6,309 6,309

The effect of the turmoil on the probability of completing post-secondary education

Dependent variable: Post-secondary degree==1; Otherwise==0
Total Men Women
[1] [2] [1] [2] [1] [2]
Age 40–45 −0.0587*** (0.0075) −0.0084** (0.0034) −0.0664*** (0.0114) −0.0102 (0.0065) −0.0147 (0.0247) −0.0031 (0.0053)
# of obs. 18,730 18,852 15,827 12,798 2,903 6,054
R2 0.0476 0.0570 0.0298 0.0474 0.0780 0.1077

Difference in the probability of graduation between the 40–45 and 46–51 age groups

Dependent variable
Post-secondary High school Primary/Elementary
Degree==1 Degree==1 Degree==1
Otherwise==0 Otherwise==0 Otherwise==0
[1] [2] [3]
Age 40–45 −0.0148*** (0.0051) 0.0450*** (0.0027) 0.0325*** (0.0092)
# of obs. 74,903 74,903 74,903
R2 0.0364 0.0375 0.0524

Descriptive statistics for individuals of age 34–51

Variables Mean
Primary or elementary sch. grad. rate 0.63
High sch. grad. rate 0.14
Post-secondary sch. grad. rate 0.08
Years of schooling 6.36
Labor force participation 0.58
Employment rate 0.54
Sample size 115,410

OLS and 2SLS estimates of the returns to college with different samples

Dependent variable: Log hourly wage
40–45 41–45 42–45 43–45
46–51 47–51 47–50 47–49
[1] [2] [3] [4]
Panel A: Just-identified models
OLS 0.5025*** (0.0311) 0.5145*** (0.0333) 0.5152*** (0.0367) 0.5105*** (0.0342)
2SLS 0.5716*** (0.0935) 0.5148*** (0.0690) 0.4698*** (0.0802) 0.4855*** (0.1016)
F-statistic (first stage) 140.13 181.59 144.01 94.10
Panel B: Over-identified models
2SLS 0.5588*** (0.0841) 0.5078*** (0.0716) 0.4774*** (0.0827) 0.5039*** (0.1032)
LIML 0.5605*** (0.0865) 0.5076*** (0.0731) 0.4767*** (0.0840) 0.5037*** (0.1053)
F-statistic (first stage) 25.15 37.43 36.65 31.97
p-value Hansen's test 0.80 0.72 0.71 0.61
Region of residence Yes Yes Yes Yes
Urban/rural status Yes Yes Yes Yes
# of observations 6,309 5,042 4,093 3,088

Classification of occupations and their percentages in age groups

ISCO-88 codes Classification Percentage in age group
34–39 40–45 46–51
12, 21, 22, 23, 24 Corp. managers and professionals (1.53<log wage<2.07) 13.73 12.00 18.68
31, 32, 33, 34, 41, 42 Technicians, assoc. professionals & clerks (1.29<log wage<1.45) 15.12 17.39 16.66
11, 13, 51, 72, 81 Average wage earners (0.92<log wage<1.10) 20.32 20.72 18.40
71, 73, 82, 83, 91 Between min. wage & av. wage (0.69<log wage<0.87) 33.29 34.37 31.28
52, 61, 62, 74, 92, 93 Approx. less than min. wage (log wage<0.61) 17.54 15.52 14.98

OLS and 2SLS estimates of the returns to college

Dependent variable: Log hourly wage
[1] [2] [3]
Panel A: Just-identified models
OLS 0.5022*** (0.0320) 0.5062*** (0.0304) 0.5025*** (0.0311)
2SLS 0.5795*** (0.0965) 0.5790*** (0.0935) 0.5716*** (0.0935)
F-statistic (first stage) 139.54 142.56 140.13
Panel B: Over-identified models
2SLS 0.5688*** (0.0887) 0.5659*** (0.0855) 0.5588*** (0.0841)
LIML 0.5704*** (0.0908) 0.5676*** (0.0880) 0.5605*** (0.0865)
F-statistic (first stage) 25.01 25.51 25.15
p-value Hansen's test 0.87 0.80 0.80
Region of residence No Yes Yes
Urban/rural status No No Yes
# of observations 6,309 6,309 6,309

The effect of the turmoil on the probability of completing post-secondary education and wage

Dependent variable
Post-secondary degree Log hourly wage
[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6]
Instrument (zi) −0.1507*** (0.0214) −0.1518*** (0.0211) −0.1502*** (0.0207) −0.0873*** (0.0160) −0.0879*** (0.0159) −0.0859*** (0.0154)
Region of residence No Yes Yes No Yes Yes
Urban/rural status No No Yes No No Yes
# of observations 6,309 6,309 6,309 6,309 6,309 6,309

OLS and 2SLS estimates of the returns to college using more HLFS waves

Dependent variable: Log hourly wage
2005 2005–2008
Panel A: Just-identified models
OLS 0.5025*** (0.0311) 0.5380*** (0.0305)
2SLS 0.5716*** (0.0935) 0.5644*** (0.0801)
F-statistic (first stage) 140.13 301.03
Panel B: Over-identified models
2SLS 0.5588*** (0.0841) 0.5950*** (0.0883)
LIML 0.5605*** (0.0865) 0.5957*** (0.0895)
F-statistic (first stage) 25.15 55.62
p-value Hansen's test 0.80 0.85
Region of residence Yes Yes
Urban/rural status Yes Yes
# of observations 6,309 21,717

Average hours worked in the main bob by educational attainment in the sample of wage earners in Turkey

Educational attainment # of observations Mean
No schooling 3,305 55.3
Primary school (5 years) 26,065 55.5
Elementary school (8 years) 11,046 54.9
High school 19,498 51.8
Post-secondary degree 13,396 44.1

Comparisons of age groups for male wage earners

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5]
Age 34–39 10,774 1.023 8.363 0.166 0.228
Age 40–45 10,105 1.002 8.198 0.142 0.243
Age 46–51 5,722 1.037 8.475 0.211 0.195
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