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Recent vs Historical Migrants: A Study on the Canadian Provincial Trade-Migration Nexus

Nusrate Aziz
Nusrate Aziz
 and 
Ahmed Aziz
Ahmed Aziz
   | Dec 31, 2023
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Published Online: Dec 31, 2023
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Received: Mar 24, 2023
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/izajodm-2023-0007
Keywords
© 2023 Nusrate Aziz et al., published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Figure 1

Interprovincial and International Migration of Canada (1971–2016)Source: Authors’ calculations, based on data from Statistics Canada (CANSIM Tables 0510018 & 0510037).
Interprovincial and International Migration of Canada (1971–2016)Source: Authors’ calculations, based on data from Statistics Canada (CANSIM Tables 0510018 & 0510037).

Figure 2

History of Interprovincial Inflow of migration (1971–2020)Source: Authors’ calculation, based on data from Statistics Canada (CANSIM, Table 1710002101).
History of Interprovincial Inflow of migration (1971–2020)Source: Authors’ calculation, based on data from Statistics Canada (CANSIM, Table 1710002101).

Figure 3

Interprovincial Export and Import of Canadian Provinces (1992–2008)Source: Authors’ calculations, based on data from Statistics Canada (CANSIM Tables 1210008501 and 1210008601).
Interprovincial Export and Import of Canadian Provinces (1992–2008)Source: Authors’ calculations, based on data from Statistics Canada (CANSIM Tables 1210008501 and 1210008601).

Data and Variables

Variable Description Data Sources
Tij Bilateral exports of goods and services Tables 12-10-0085 and 12-10-0086 from Statistics Canada
Bilateral exports of goods Tables 12-10-0085 and 12-10-0086 from Statistics Canada
Bilateral exports of services Tables 12-10-0085 and 12-10-0086 from Statistics Canada
Migration
Historical Migrants (Mji (hs), M(sum-hs) The bilateral stock of historical migration. The historical migrants’ variable includes the stock of migrants that came and live in a particular province any time after 1871 from a partner province. The stock of historical migrants includes people who migrated from 1871 to 2008. Mji(hs) is the bilateral stock of historical migration in province j, M(sum-hs) is the sum of the reciprocal stock of historical migration Constructed using census data of 1981 and Table 17-10-0022-01 (CANSIM 051-0019) from Statistics Canada
Recent Migrants I (Mji (rs), M(sum-rs)) The bilateral stock of recent migration. The recent stock of migrants includes the migrants that came from a partner province after 1975 and live in a particular province. The stock of recent migrants includes people who migrated from 1975 to 2008. Mji(rs) is the bilateral stock of recent migration in province j, M(sum-rs) is the sum of reciprocal stock of recent migration Constructed using census data of 1981 and Table 17-10-0022-01 (CANSIM 051-0019) from Statistics Canada
Recent Migrants II (Mji & Mij, M(sum)) The bilateral flow of interprovincial migrants. Annual observations of interprovincial migrants between 1992 and 2008. Mji is the annual inflow of migrants, Mij is the annual outflow of migrants, M(sum) is the sum of the reciprocal (inflow and outflow) of migrants. Table 17-10-0022-01 (CANSIM 051-0019) from Statistics Canada.
Proximity
Distij Bilateral simple distance. Distance between capitals of provinces in a bilateral set-up. GlobalFeed.com (Distance calculator Canada)
Great circle distance (using the geographic coordinate system) and provincial population weighted distance. We follow Head and Mayer (2002) to construct these variables. Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project, Version 1
Language
Langij Combination of provincial language. Difference between the percentage of France speaking population in a bilateral set up of provinces. The larger the gap means the bigger the combination of English and French speakers. Data source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Languages_of_Canada
English dummy. Dummy equals one if the official language of both provinces is English, otherwise zero. Constructed
French dummy. Dummy equals one if the official language of both provinces is French, otherwise zero. Constructed
English and French speaking pair-dummy. Dummy equals one if the official language in one province in the pair speaks English and another province speaks French, otherwise zero. Constructed
Trade Liberalization
RTAij A dummy variable. Canadian interprovincial regional trade agreements (RTA) have been signed between Canadian provinces since the early 1990s. Beaulieu and Zaman (2019)
TILMAij A dummy variable. Trade, Investment and Labour Mobility Agreement (TILMA) in 2007 between British Columbia and Alberta. Beaulieu and Zaman (2019)
APAij A dummy variable. Atlantic Procurement Agreement (APA) in 1996 between New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island. Beaulieu and Zaman (2019)
OPPij A dummy variable. Agreement on the Opening of Public Procurement (OPP) in 1993 between New Brunswick and Quebec. Beaulieu and Zaman (2019)
Instruments
Imputed annual flow Instrumental variable for bilateral migrants’ flow. Imputed bilateral annual migrants’ flow. Constructed by closely following the method proposed by Peri and Requena (2010).
Imputed historical stock Instrumental variable for lifetime stock of migrants. The imputed stock of migrants. Constructed by closely following the method proposed by Peri and Requena (2010)
Imputed recent stock Instrumental variable for recent stock of migrants. The imputed stock of migrants. Constructed by closely following the method proposed by Peri and Requena (2010)

Estimated Results using FGLS with FE (GOODS & SERVICES)

Variable
Dependent: Ln (Interprovincial Exports) GOODS & SERVICES GOODS SERVICES
Ln Mji 0.133*** (0.027) 0.0520 (0.040) 0.0912*** (0.020)
Ln Mji(hs) 0.493*** (0.044) 0.365*** (0.087) 0.600*** (0.040)
Ln Mji(rs) 0.463*** (0.044) 0.315*** (0.083) 0.631*** (0.042)
Ln DISTij −1.033*** (0.032) −0.662*** (0.048) −0.732*** (0.044) −1.084*** (0.051) −0.774*** (0.092) −0.849*** (0.083) −1.026*** (0.028) −0.509*** (0.045) −0.529*** (0.044)
LANGij 0.962*** (0.153) 1.349*** (0.157) 1.296*** (0.154) 0.824*** (0.247) 1.186*** (0.269) 1.097*** (0.261) 1.027*** (0.168) 1.514*** (0.160) 1.496*** (0.168)
RTAij 0.128*** (0.041) 0.104*** (0.038) 0.101*** (0.039) 0.234*** (0.075) 0.212*** (0.073) 0.205** (0.073) 0.172*** (0.038) 0.129*** (0.033) 0.106*** (0.032)
CONSTANT 14.16*** (0.466) 6.493*** (0.895) 7.397*** (0.851) 15.14*** (0.724) 8.764*** (1.750) 9.968*** (1.618) 13.67*** (0.378) 3.164*** (0.818) 2.987*** (0.834)
OBSERVATIONS 1224 1224 1224 1104 1104 1104 1104 1104 1104
Exporter_Year FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Importer_Year FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Estimated Results using PPML with IV and FE (GOODS)

Variable
Dependent: Interprovincial Exports (G&S) Simple Distance Great Circle Distance Population Weighted Distance
Ln Mji 0.184** (0.076) 0.0894 (0.104) 0.0736 (0.126)
Ln Mji(hs) 0.254** (0.101) 0.149 (0.139) 0.170 (0.167)
Ln Mji(rs) 0.237** (0.094) 0.137 (0.129) 0.143 (0.155)
Ln DISTij −0.683*** (0.111) −0.620*** (0.131) −0.642*** (0.122) −0.698*** (0.131) −0.646*** (0.159) −0.659*** (0.147) −0.624*** (0.135) −0.543*** (0.165) −0.569*** (0.151)
LANGij 0.702 (0.503) 0.830 (0.534) 0.739 (0.510) 1.530*** (0.532) 1.555*** (0.544) 1.519*** (0.537) 0.864* (0.524) 0.974* (0.541) 0.908* (0.524)
RTAij 0.807*** (0.188) 0.804*** (0.189) 0.784*** (0.188) 1.066*** (0.215) 1.052*** (0.218) 1.046*** (0.217) 1.052*** (0.209) 1.044*** (0.211) 1.036*** (0.211)
CONSTANT 11.49*** (1.470) 9.477*** (2.193) 9.918*** (2.011) 12.02*** (1.813) 10.59*** (2.802) 10.87*** (2.558) 11.80*** (2.078) 9.746*** (3.243) 10.31*** (2.950)
OBSERVATIONS 1104 1104 1104 1104 1104 1104 1104 1104 1104
WALD χ2 326.60*** 355.19*** 358.99*** 297.70*** 330.14*** 322.11*** 284.70*** 321.19*** 307.52***
PSEUDO R2 0.972 0.973 0.973 0.971 0.971 0.971 0.970 0.969 0.969
Exporter_Year FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Importer_Year FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Estimated Results using Two-Step Feasible Generalized Method of Moments (GOODS)

Variable
Dependent: Ln (Interprovincial Exports (G&S)) Simple Distance Great Circle Distance Population Weighted Distance
Ln Mji 0.212* (0.123) 0.199 (0.152) 0.169 (0.155)
Ln Mji(hs) 0.229* (0.131) 0.236 (0.153) 0.243 (0.151)
Ln Mji(rs) 0.249* (0.139) 0.229 (0.173) 0.217 (0.176)
Ln DISTij −1.042*** (0.150) −1.002*** (0.168) −1.005*** (0.163) −0.922*** (0.170) −0.869*** (0.181) −0.894*** (0.186) −0.923*** (0.166) −0.840*** (0.174) −0.880*** (0.181)
LANGij 1.983** (0.653) 2.003*** (0.650) 1.990*** (0.646) 3.388*** (0.656) 3.354*** (0.663) 3.348*** (0.651) 2.584*** (0.639) 2.622*** (0.640) 2.584*** (0.633)
RTAij 1.156*** (0.276) 1.170*** (0.279) 1.144*** (0.277) 1.540*** (0.293) 1.532*** (0.299) 1.523*** (0.294) 1.458*** (0.291) 1.442*** (0.296) 1.438*** (0.293)
OBSERVATIONS 1104 1104 1104 1104 1104 1104 1104 1104 1104
F-STAT 138.07*** 150.40*** 141.46*** 144.96*** 155.09*** 148.19*** 127.12*** 137.78*** 130.20***
CENTERED R2 0.832 0.834 0.834 0.810 0.812 0.812 0.807 0.810 0.809
Exporter_Year FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Importer_Year FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
HANSEN J STATISTICS (OVER ID TEST) Exactly Identified Exactly Identified Exactly Identified Exactly Identified Exactly Identified Exactly Identified Exactly Identified Exactly Identified Exactly Identified
STOCK – YOGO (2005) WEAK ID TEST Valid Instrument Valid Instrument Valid Instrument Valid Instrument Valid Instrument Valid Instrument Valid Instrument Valid Instrument Valid Instrument

Estimated Results using Two-Step Feasible Generalized Method of Moments (GOODS & SERVICES)

Variable
Dependent: Ln (Interprovincial Exports (G&S)) Simple Distance Great Circle Distance Population Weighted Distance
Ln Mji 0.284*** (0.105) 0.277** (0.133) 0.266** (0.132)
Ln Mji(hs) 0.331*** (0.099) 0.349*** (0.116) 0.370*** (0.111)
Ln Mji(rs) 0.320*** (0.112) 0.307** (0.139) 0.313** (0.138)
Ln DISTij −0.915*** (0.113) −0.840*** (0.119) −0.880*** (0.119) −0.809*** (0.133) −0.718*** (0.129) −0.783*** (0.137) −0.790*** (0.127) −0.671*** (0.125) −0.749*** (0.131)
LANGij 1.839*** (0.427) 1.899*** (0.420) 1.832*** (0.412) 3.066*** (0.424) 3.023*** (0.431) 3.013*** (0.417) 2.377*** (0.418) 2.436*** (0.414) 2.360*** (0.404)
RTAij 1.033*** (0.182) 1.043*** (0.181) 1.017*** (0.182) 1.355*** (0.206) 1.334*** (0.206) 1.335*** (0.209) 1.295*** (0.207) 1.270*** (0.205) 1.270*** (0.209)
OBSERVATIONS 1224 1224 1224 1224 1224 1224 1224 1224 1224
F-STAT 161.66*** 196.03*** 234.99*** 208.38*** 198.01*** 229.49*** 255.99*** 238.97*** 157.84***
CENTERED R2 0.883 0.883 0.887 0.886 0.861 0.856 0.866 0.863 0.855
Exporter_Year FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Importer_Year FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
HANSEN J STATISTICS (OVER ID TEST) Exactly Identified Exactly Identified Exactly Identified Exactly Identified Exactly Identified Exactly Identified Exactly Identified Exactly Identified Exactly Identified
STOCK – YOGO (2005) WEAK ID TEST Not Valid Instrument Valid Instrument Valid Instrument Valid Instrument Not Valid Instrument Valid Instrument Valid Instrument Valid Instrument Not Valid Instrument

Estimated Results using Two-Step Feasible Generalized Method of Moments (SERVICES)

Variable
Dependent: Ln (Interprovincial Exports (G&S)) Simple Distance Great Circle Distance Population Weighted Distance
Ln Mji 0.380*** (0.085) 0.342*** (0.100) 0.360*** (0.103)
Ln Mji(hs) 0.465*** (0.072) 0.451*** (0.077) 0.500*** (0.072)
Ln Mji(rs) 0.443*** (0.089) 0.403*** (0.103) 0.440*** (0.102)
Ln DISTij −0.712*** (0.081) −0.588*** (0.075) −0.650*** (0.085) −0.667*** (0.091) −0.533*** (0.075) −0.611*** (0.092) −0.620*** (0.092) −0.460*** (0.075) −0.549*** (0.089)
LANGij 1.986*** (0.291) 2.089*** (0.253) 1.994*** (0.274) 2.949*** (0.254) 2.885*** (0.222) 2.878*** (0.244) 2.405*** (0.270) 2.475*** (0.224) 2.392*** (0.250)
RTAij 0.950*** (0.147) 0.962*** (0.135) 0.930*** (0.143) 1.207*** (0.156) 1.173*** (0.146) 1.173*** (0.157) 1.158*** (0.161) 1.127*** (0.149) 1.122*** (0.160)
OBSERVATIONS 1104 1104 1104 1104 1104 1104 1104 1104 1104
F-STAT 251.20*** 318.37*** 274.83*** 294.96*** 343.69*** 308.85*** 247.24*** 296.31*** 261.66***
CENTERED R2 0.917 0.924 0.921 0.908 0.916 0.911 0.898 0.909 0.903
Exporter_Year FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Importer_Year FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
HANSEN J STATISTICS (OVER ID TEST) Exactly Identified Exactly Identified Exactly Identified Exactly Identified Exactly Identified Exactly Identified Exactly Identified Exactly Identified Exactly Identified
STOCK – YOGO (2005) WEAK ID TEST Valid Instrument Valid Instrument Valid Instrument Valid Instrument Valid Instrument Valid Instrument Valid Instrument Valid Instrument Valid Instrument

Fisher’s permutation test (sampling without replacement) of differences in coefficient estimates (POPULATION WEIGHTED DISTANCE)

H0: Mji(hs) = Mji(rs) H0: Mji(hs) = Mji
Observed Difference = 0.057 Observed Difference = 0.134
Empirical P-Value = 0.03 Empirical P-Value = 0.00
Decision: Reject H0 → Mji(hs) and Mji(rs) are statistically different. Decision: Reject H0 → Mji(hs) and Mji are statistically different.

Estimated Results with Additional Migration Variables using PPML with IV and FE (GOODS)

Variable
Dependent: Interprovincial Exports (G) Goods
Ln Mji 0.0736 (0.126)
Ln M (sum) 0.0960 (0.122)
Ln Mji(hs) 0.170 (0.167)
Ln M (sum-hs) 0.112 (0.139)
Ln Mji(rs) 0.143 (0.155)
Ln M (sum-rs) 0.130 (0.145)
Ln DISTij −0.624*** (0.135) −0.606*** (0.130) −0.543*** (0.165) −0.593*** (0.142) −0.569*** (0.151) −0.580*** (0.144)
LANGij 0.864* (0.524) 0.882* (0.516) 0.974* (0.541) 0.916* (0.523) 0.908* (0.524) 0.889* (0.513)
RTAij 1.052*** (0.209) 1.057*** (0.209) 1.044*** (0.211) 1.050*** (0.210) 1.036*** (0.211) 1.037*** (0.210)
CONSTANT 11.80*** (2.078) 11.39*** (2.096) 9.746*** (3.243) 10.76*** (2.825) 10.31*** (2.950) 10.46*** (2.883)
OBSERVATIONS 1104 1104 1104 1104 1104 1104
WALD χ2 284.70 302.98 321.19 286.69 307.52 296.18
PSEUDO R2 0.969 0.969 0.969 0.969 0.969 0.969
Exporter_Year FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Importer_Year FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Estimated Results with Additional Migration Variables using PPML with IV and FE (GOODS &SERVICES)

Variable
Dependent: Interprovincial Exports (G&S) Goods & Services
Ln Mji 0.173* (0.100)
Ln M (sum) 0.194** (0.098)
Ln Mji(hs) 0.306** (0.132)
Ln M (sum-hs) 0.201* (0.114)
Ln Mji(rs) 0.252** (0.125)
Ln M (sum-rs) 0.237** (0.119)
Ln DISTij −0.484*** (0.098) −0.471*** (0.093) −0.375*** (0.121) −0.464*** (0.106) −0.427*** (0.112) −0.440*** (0.108)
LANGij 0.769* (0.450) 0.792* (0.435) 0.951** (0.475) 0.829* (0.448) 0.822* (0.448) 0.796* (0.431)
RTAij 0.878*** (0.187) 0.887*** (0.185) 0.864*** (0.185) 0.871*** (0.188) 0.850*** (0.183) 0.854*** (0.183)
CONSTANT 10.55*** (1.601) 10.11*** (1.623) 7.472*** (2.513) 9.291*** (2.256) 8.585*** (2.329) 8.701*** (2.309)
OBSERVATIONS 1224 1224 1224 1224 1224 1224
WALD χ2 417.71 455.62 467.59 392.99 446.90 433.23
PSEUDO R2 0.977 0.978 0.978 0.977 0.978 0.978
Exporter_Year FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Importer_Year FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Fisher’s permutation test of differences in coefficient estimates (POPULATION WEIGHTED DISTANCE)

H0: Mji(hs) = Mji(rs) H0: Mji(hs) = Mji
Observed Difference = 0.072 Observed Difference = 0.165
Empirical P-Value = 0.03 Empirical P-Value = 0.00
Decision: Reject H0 → Mji(hs) and Mji(rs) are statistically different. Decision: Reject H0 → Mji(hs) and Mji are statistically different.

Summary statistics: By Province (1992–2008)Exports (millions of CAD) and migration (persons)

N Mean SD Min Max
Alberta
  Trade Value GS 136 4143.508 4623.199 116 20494.5
  Trade Value G 120 3004.501 3351.724 93.7 13685.2
  Trade Value S 120 1432.808 1487.152 54.85 6809.4
  Migrants 136 8588.765 7656.96 1106 31789
  Migration Lifetime 136 216508.9 177755.75 25828 640611
  Migration Recent 136 177265.15 159466.04 20828 628361
British Columbia
  Trade Value GS 136 2392.175 3080.311 81.1 13677.5
  Trade Value G 124 1126.089 1612.349 23.9 6947.9
  Trade Value S 124 1401.962 1666.722 48.8 6729.6
  Migrants 136 6831.375 7990.523 370 27518
  Migration Lifetime 136 238574.21 222448.84 16512 818099
  Migration Recent 136 165824.21 185159.56 10462 688299
Manitoba
  Trade Value GS 136 1277.095 1269.517 30.6 5684.4
  Trade Value G 124 687.801 659.115 19.2 2743.3
  Trade Value S 124 648.008 667.116 10.3 2941.1
  Migrants 136 1680.522 1481.065 163 5199
  Migration Lifetime 136 54431.25 46720.722 5922 167400
  Migration Recent 136 43500 38638.805 4172 145500
New Brunswick
  Trade Value GS 136 734.7 813.781 27.1 3619.3
  Trade Value G 128 510.795 637.1 9.7 2905.5
  Trade Value S 128 216.782 213.872 13.6 755.3
  Migrants 136 1318.64 1098.945 100 4023
  Migration Lifetime 136 38247.022 34224.008 3581 124934
  Migration Recent 136 32690.772 29151.89 2731 115184
Newfoundland and Labrador
  Trade Value GS 136 416.053 643.554 10.7 2927
  Trade Value G 124 348.075 596.805 1 2788.4
  Trade Value S 124 88.003 96.339 8.6 471.1
  Migrants 136 963.676 1103.28 40 3935
  Migration Lifetime 136 21371.081 25711.324 1590 109599
  Migration Recent 136 20658.581 25951.212 1590 109999
Nova Scotia
  Trade Value GS 136 635.648 549.493 39.8 2244.6
  Trade Value G 116 405.987 343.432 15.5 1472.9
  Trade Value S 116 277.378 240.501 22.4 1073.5
  Migrants 136 1876.346 1656.768 204 7023
  Migration Lifetime 136 51479.493 44322.614 6127 196700
  Migration Recent 136 44891.993 40399.376 4427 182700
Ontario
  Trade Value GS 136 10024.164 10191.3 1773.2 41148.801
  Trade Value G 128 4943.982 5479.7 795.9 20938.5
  Trade Value S 128 5301.979 5106.336 930.7 22637.6
  Migrants 136 8093.074 5909.866 1577 24885
  Migration Lifetime 136 288663.5 195634.11 112833 908654
  Migration Recent 136 213088.5 163586.99 46933 716304
Quebec
  Trade Value GS 136 5421.889 8445.865 874 35653.102
  Trade Value G 120 3693.012 5536.797 594.2 20662.5
  Trade Value S 120 2212.544 3381.279 295.7 15582.7
  Migrants 136 2708.831 4361.94 174 16717
  Migration Lifetime 136 85747.287 131586.83 10812 529096
  Migration Recent 136 63759.787 103196.84 4771 432496
Saskatchewan
  Trade Value GS 136 1173.521 1438.696 21 7098.7
  Trade Value G 120 895.32 1163.315 9.7 5574.7
  Trade Value S 120 314.578 353.968 7 1524
  Migrants 136 1983.787 2478.254 99 11221
  Migration Lifetime 136 54080.471 57216.398 2059 233526
  Migration Recent 136 46255.471 53158.17 1809 225076

Dependent variable: ln(interprovincial exports)

Variable VIF Tolerance
lnDistij 1.51 0.663
lnMji 1.27 0.786
RTA 1.27 0.787
Lang 1.07 0.933
Mean VIF 1.28

Fisher’s permutation test of differences in coefficient estimates (SERVICES)

H0: Mji = M (sum) H0: M (sum-hs) = M (sum-rs) H0: M (sum-hs) = M (sum)
Observed Difference = 0.007 Observed Difference = −0.041 Observed Difference = 0.011
Empirical P-Value = 0.37 Empirical P-Value = 0.17 Empirical P-Value = 0.02
Decision: Do not Reject H0→ Mji and M (sum) are not statistically different. Decision: Do not Reject H0→ M (sum-hs) and M (sum-rs) are not statistically different. Decision: Reject H0→ M (sum-hs) and M (sum) are statistically different.

Fisher’s permutation test of differences in coefficient estimates (GOODS & SERVICES)

H0: Mji = M (sum) H0: M (sum-hs) = M (sum-rs) H0: M (sum-hs) = M (sum)
Observed Difference = 0.021 Observed Difference = −0.035 Observed Difference = 0.008
Empirical P-Value = 0.16 Empirical P-Value = 0.15 Empirical P-Value = 0.05
Decision: Do not Reject H0 → Mji and M (sum) are not statistically different. Decision: Do not Reject → M (sum-hs) and M (sum-rs) are not statistically different. Decision: Reject H0 → M (sum-hs) and M (sum) are statistically different.

Estimated Results with Additional Migration Variables using PPML with IV and FE (SERVICES)

Variable
Dependent: Interprovincial Exports (S) Services
Ln Mji 0.339*** (0.093)
Ln M (sum) 0.332*** (0.092)
Ln Mji(hs) 0.504*** (0.107)
Ln M (sum-hs) 0.343*** (0.110)
Ln Mji(rs) 0.432*** (0.112)
Ln M (sum-rs) 0.384*** (0.114)
Ln DISTij −0.305*** (0.074) −0.320*** (0.072) −0.165* (0.085) −0.304*** (0.084) −0.242*** (0.084) −0.281*** (0.086)
LANGij 0.929** (0.376) 0.932** (0.369) 1.217*** (0.385) 0.987** (0.402) 0.997*** (0.355) 0.928*** (0.360)
RTAij 0.734*** (0.190) 0.748*** (0.189) 0.716*** (0.185) 0.721*** (0.199) 0.687*** (0.180) 0.697*** (0.185)
CONSTANT 7.048*** (1.389) 6.948*** (1.433) 2.714 (1.968) 5.547*** (2.069) 4.309** (1.995) 4.918** (2.113)
OBSERVATIONS 1104 1104 1104 1104 1104 1104
WALD χ2 648.71 713.87 562.83 521.24 597.45 604.20
PSEUDO R2 0.985 0.985 0.985 0.984 0.985 0.985
Exporter_Year FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Importer_Year FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Estimated Results using PPML with IV and FE (GOODS & SERVICES)

Variable
Dependent: Interprovincial Exports (G&S) Simple Distance Great Circle Distance Population Weighted Distance
Ln Mji 0.238*** (0.067) 0.165* (0.086) 0.173* (0.100)
Ln Mji(hs) 0.326*** (0.087) 0.257** (0.114) 0.306** (0.132)
Ln Mji(rs) 0.299*** (0.083) 0.224** (0.108) 0.252** (0.125)
Ln DISTij −0.557*** (0.088) −0.475*** (0.104) −0.511*** (0.098) −0.564*** (0.097) −0.482*** (0.120) −0.519*** (0.111) −0.484*** (0.098) −0.375** (0.121) −0.427*** (0.112)
LANGij 0.641 (0.397) 0.815* (0.429) 0.690* (0.401) 1.273*** (0.448) 1.332*** (0.461) 1.268*** (0.445) 0.769* (0.450) 0.951** (0.475) 0.822* (0.448)
RTAij 0.681*** (0.157) 0.680*** (0.159) 0.654*** (0.155) 0.874*** (0.190) 0.856*** (0.189) 0.845*** (0.187) 0.878*** (0.187) 0.864*** (0.185) 0.850*** (0.183)
CONSTANT 10.68*** (1.224) 8.098*** (1.837) 8.795*** (1.719) 11.07*** (1.436) 8.749*** (2.248) 9.489*** (2.078) 10.55*** (1.601) 7.472** (2.513) 8.585*** (2.329)
OBSERVATIONS 1224 1224 1224 1224 1224 1224 1224 1224 1224
WALD χ2 506.49*** 432.30*** 471.05*** 467.46*** 476.18*** 429.96*** 468.45*** 457.36*** 451.30***
PSEUDO R2 0.980 0.980 0.980 0.980 0.980 0.979 0.979 0.979 0.978
Exporter_Year FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Importer_Year FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Estimated Results using OLS with FE (EXPORTS)

Variable
Dependent: ln (Interprovincial Exports) Goods & Services Goods Services
lnMji 0.0605 (0.183) 0.171 (0.140) −0.0610 (0.245) 0.0623 (0.168) 0.0605 (0.183) 0.171 (0.140)
lnMij 0.124 (0.189) 0.139 (0.264) 0.124 (0.189)
lnMji(hs) 0.325** (0.139) 0.171 (0.188) 0.325** (0.139)
lnMji(rs) 0.269 (0.166) 0.144 (0.208) 0.269 (0.166)
lnDISTij −0.861*** (0.142) −0.874*** (0.134) −0.714*** (0.150) −0.787*** (0.154) −1.003*** (0.188) −1.016*** (0.178) −0.908*** (0.211) −0.945*** (0.210) −0.861*** (0.142) −0.874*** (0.134) −0.714*** (0.150) −0.787*** (0.154)
LANGij 2.312*** (0.465) 2.301*** (0.479) 2.403*** (0.478) 2.332*** (0.469) 2.510*** (0.731) 2.499** (0.750) 2.572*** (0.747) 2.538** (0.743) 2.312*** (0.465) 2.301*** (0.479) 2.403*** (0.478) 2.332*** (0.469)
RTAij 1.321*** (0.234) 1.325*** (0.235) 1.284*** (0.236) 1.285*** (0.240) 1.489*** (0.335) 1.495*** (0.338) 1.464*** (0.346) 1.465*** (0.343) 1.321*** (0.234) 1.325*** (0.235) 1.284*** (0.236) 1.285*** (0.240)
CONSTANT 11.10*** (2.107) 11.30*** (1.980) 7.827*** (2.565) 9.062** (2.839) 12.30*** (2.689) 12.52*** (2.517) 10.30*** (3.548) 10.92*** (3.708) 11.10*** (2.107) 11.30*** (1.980) 7.827*** (2.565) 9.062** (2.839)
OBSERVATIONS 1224 1224 1224 1224 1104 1104 1104 1104 1224 1224 1224 1224
R2 0.962 0.962 0.963 0.962 0.946 0.946 0.947 0.947 0.962 0.962 0.963 0.962
Exporter_Year FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Importer_Year FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Estimated Results using PPML with IV and FE (SERVICES)

Variable
Dependent: Interprovincial Exports (G&S) Simple Distance Great Circle Distance Population Weighted Distance
Ln Mji 0.344*** (0.065) 0.309*** (0.083) 0.339*** (0.093)
Ln Mji(hs) 0.443*** (0.074) 0.431*** (0.098) 0.504*** (0.107)
Ln Mji(rs) 0.414*** (0.078) 0.382*** (0.101) 0.432*** (0.112)
Ln DISTij −0.399*** (0.065) −0.300*** (0.070) −0.346*** (0.071) −0.382*** (0.075) −0.268*** (0.087) −0.329*** (0.085) −0.305*** (0.074) −0.165* (0.085) −0.242** (0.084)
LANGij 0.787** (0.317) 1.032*** (0.329) 0.856*** (0.303) 1.226*** (0.366) 1.353*** (0.364) 1.233*** (0.345) 0.929** (0.376) 1.217*** (0.385) 0.997*** (0.355)
RTAij 0.574*** (0.165) 0.577*** (0.167) 0.539*** (0.160) 0.714*** (0.191) 0.693*** (0.188) 0.670*** (0.183) 0.734*** (0.190) 0.716*** (0.185) 0.687*** (0.180)
CONSTANT 7.821*** (1.041) 4.566*** (1.431) 5.414*** (1.465) 7.815*** (1.281) 4.346** (1.843) 5.498*** (1.841) 7.048*** (1.389) 2.714 (1.968) 4.309** (1.995)
OBSERVATIONS 1104 1104 1104 1104 1104 1104 1104 1104 1104
WALD χ2 618.91*** 544.23*** 563.68*** 616.87*** 545.59*** 574.73*** 648.71*** 562.83*** 597.45***
PSEUDO R2 0.986 0.986 0.986 0.985 0.986 0.986 0.985 0.985 0.985
Exporter_Year FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Importer_Year FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
eISSN:
2520-1786
Language:
English
Publication timeframe:
Volume Open
Journal Subjects:
Business and Economics, Political Economics, Microeconomics, Macroecomics, Economic Policy, Mathematics and Statistics for Economists, Econometrics
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