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Bilateral labor agreements and the migration of Filipinos: An instrumental variable approach

Brianna O’Steen
Brianna O’Steen
   | Sep 24, 2021
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Published Online: Sep 24, 2021
Page range: -
Accepted: Jul 13, 2021
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/izajodm-2021-0011
Keywords
© 2021 Brianna O’Steen, published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Variables

Variables Form Source
Independent
BLA Dummy Mangulabnan and Daquio (2019)
Dependent
Migrant Stock # of persons Philippine Overseas Employment Agency and Global Bilateral Migration Database
Instruments
BIT Dummy ICSID and UNCTAD databases
Formal alliance Dummy Correlates of War Project database
Controls
GDP pc host Current USD, ln World Development Indicators
GDP pc Phil. Current USD, ln World Development Indicators
GDP pc ratio Natural log ratio ln(host/Ph)
Unemployment % of total labor force (national ests.) World Development Indicators
Gov. spending % of GDP World Development Indicators
Population host # of persons, ln World Development Indicators
Population Phil. # of persons, ln World Development Indicators
Imports USD millions, ln International Monetary Fund
Exports USD millions, ln International Monetary Fund
Polity2 Host Polity 2 score Center for Systemic Peace
Polity2 Source Polity 2 score Center for Systemic Peace
Polity2 Difference Absolute difference

Effect of BLA-onset on the migrant stock of Filipinos in host countries

Variables (1)OLS (2)IV (3)IV
BLA (onset) 13,671 (30,270) 225,161 (270,067) 174,313 (302,610)
GDP Per Capita Ratio 13,216 (8,064) 16,480** (7,097) 15,976* (8,251)
Unemployment 55.63 (1,013) 40.25 (1,169) 665.4 (915.9)
Government spending −379.9 (884.7) −148.9 (1,182) 244.9 (826.7)
Population (ln) 32,137 (20,422) 11,162 (19,903) 26,298 (22,172)
Imports (ln) 4,303* (2,281) 3,291 (2,508) 3,179 (1,958)
Exports (ln) 5,841** (2,673) 5,864** (2,903) 4,458** (2,048)
Polity scores difference 987.7 (1,712) 713.8 (2,193) 1,076 (2,427)
Year (time trend) 110.3 (577.6) −356.1 (1,140) −880.7 (1,782)
Euro Cen Asia*year −58.25 (814.8)
Latin Am and Carib*year −153.1 (1,462)
Mid East North Af*year 62.91 (923.5)
North America*year 15,644 (10,044)
South Asia*year −39.98 (1,546)
Sub-Sah Africa*year 170.9 (1,558)
Observations 1,685 1,685 1,685
R2 0.04
Countries 213 213 213

Effect of BLAs on the migrant stock of Filipinos in host countries

Variables OLS(1) IV(2) IV(3)
BLA (real) 12,310 (29,626) 208,470 (249,204) 152,194 (261,107)
GDP Per Capita Ratio 13,079* (7,819) 14,242* (7,340) 13,917* (8,287)
Unemployment 51.45 (1,020) −30.94 (1,151) 618.8 (927.9)
Government spending −397.4 (915.5) −438.3 (921.2) 24.88 (527.5)
Population (ln) 32,548 (19,992) 17,479 (17,182) 30,315 (18,487)
Imports (ln) 4,299* (2,268) 3,189 (2,532) 3,007 (1,852)
Exports (ln) 5,823** (2,646) 5,568* (3,015) 4,135** (1,999)
Polity scores difference 956.8 (1,654) 182.4 (2,377) 804.6 (2,645)
Year (time trend) 120.9 (593.3) −191.5 (964.9) −675.8 (1,432)
Euro Cen Asia*year −11.40 (854.6)
Latin Am and Carib*year −296.6 (1,214)
Mid East North Af*year 349.3 (800.5)
North America*year 15,662 (10,059)
South Asia*year −235.7 (1,211)
Sub-Sah Africa*year 48.55 (1,331)
Observations 1,685 1,685 1,685
R2 0.041
Countries 213 213 213

First Stage results for final models

Variables (2) (3)
BIT 0.1394*** (0.0223) 0.117*** (0.2227)
Alliance 0.0944 (0.0576) 0.0966* (0.0569)
GDP Per Capita Ratio −0.0065 (0.0112) −0.0118 (0.011)
Unemployment −0.0005 (0.0026) −0.00002 (0.0026)
Government spending 0.0004 (0.0013) 0.0009 (0.0012)
Population (ln) 0.0893*** (0.0212) 0.0442 (0.0268)
Imports (ln) 0.0029 (0.0036) 0.0004 (0.0035)
Exports (ln) −0.0015 (0.0038) −0.0053 (0.0038)
Polity scores difference 0.003 (0.0029) 0.0046 (0.0029)
Year (time trend) 0.0008 (0.0007) 0.0044*** 0.0009
Euro Cen Asia*year −0.003*** (0.0009)
Latin Am and Carib*year −0.0041*** (0.0009)
Mid East North Af*year 0.0019* (0.0011)
North America*year 0.0027 (0.0021)
South Asia*year −0.0048** (0.0016)
Sub-Sah Africa*year −0.0047*** (0.0009)
Observations 1,685 1,685
Countries 213 213
F Statistic 19.77*** 14.35***

Formal alliances with the Philippines

Country Start year End year
Australia 1954 1977
France 1954 1974
Jordan* 2018 Still valid
New Zealand* 1954 1977
Pakistan 1954 1972
Thailand 1954 1977
United Kingdom* 1954 1977
United States* 1951 Still valid
United States 1954 1977

BITs with the Philippines

Country Date signed Country Date signed
Argentina 09/20/1999 Lao* 06/08/2007
Australia 01/25/1995 Mongolia 09/01/2000
Austria 04/11/2002 Myanmar 02/17/1998
Bahrain* 11/07/2001 Netherlands 02/27/1985
Bangladesh 09/08/1997 Pakistan 05/11/1999
Belgium-Luxembourg 01/14/1998 Portugal 11/08/2002
Cambodia* 08/16/2000 Romania 05/18/1994
Canada* 11/09/1995 Russia 09/12/1997
Chile 11/20/1995 Saudi Arabia* 10/18/1994
China* 07/20/1992 South Korea* 04/07/1994
Czech Republic 04/05/1995 Spain* 10/19/1993
Denmark 09/26/1997 Sweden 08/17/1999
Finland 03/25/1998 Switzerland* 03/31/1997
France 06/14/197609/13/1994 Syria 11/25/2009
Germany* 03/03/196404/18/1997 Taiwan* 02/28/1992
India 01/28/2000 Thailand 09/30/1995
Indonesia* 11/12/2001 Turkey 02/22/1999
Iran 10/08/1995 United Kingdom* 12/03/1980
Italy* 06/17/1988 Vietnam 02/27/1992
Kuwait* 12/03/2000

Philippines BLAs chronologically

Country Date signed Country Date signed
United States* 12/28/1968 New Zealand* 11/04/2008
Papua New Guinea 03/14/1979 Qatar* 10/18/2008
Libya 10/18/1979 Japan* 01/12/2009
Qatar 05/05/1981 South Korea 05/30/2009
Jordan 11/05/1981 South Korea 05/20/2009
Iraq* 11/25/1982 Canada* 09/21/2010
Liberia 08/10/1985 Jordan 05/27/2010
Jordan 11/03/1988 Taiwan* 07/26/2011
Northern Marianna Islands 09/19/1994 Canada* 05/19/2012
Kuwait 09/14/1997 Jordan 01/29/2012
Qatar* 05/10/1997 Kuwait* 03/23/2012
Taiwan* 09/03/1999 Lebanon* 02/01/2012
Northern Mariana Islands* 12/18/2000 Lebanon* 02/01/2012
Norway 06/26/2001 Canada* 10/07/2013
Taiwan 01/12/2001 Germany* 03/19/2013
Switzerland* 07/09/2002 Papua New Guinea* 11/26/2013
United Kingdom 01/08/2002 Saudi Arabia* 05/19/2013
Bahrain* 12/15/2003 South Korea 04/08/2014
Indonesia* 01/18/2003 Switzerland 11/14/2014
Taiwan 03/20/2003 Canada* 05/08/2015
United Kingdom* 07/30/2003 Canada* 05/09/2015
South Korea 04/23/2004 Italy* 05/09/2015
Lao* 07/27/2005 Taiwan 08/03/2015
Saudi Arabia* 10/21/2005 New Zealand* 09/19/2015
South Korea 12/15/2005 Cambodia* 12/14/2016
Canada 12/18/2006 Japan* 11/21/2017
Libya* 07/17/2006 South Korea* 2017
Japan 09/09/2006 Saudi Arabia* 04/11/2017
South Korea 10/20/2006 United Arab Emirates* 09/12/2017
Spain* 06/25/2006 United Arab Emirates* 09/12/2017
Bahrain* 04/04/2007 China* 04/10/2018
United Arab Emirates 04/09/2007 Israel* 09/03/2018
Canada 01/29/2008 Israel* 09/03/2018
Canada 02/08/2008 Jordan* 09/06/2018
Canada 10/01/2008 Jordan* 09/06/2018
Kuwait* 05/11/2018

Single instrument checks for the effect of BLA on migrant stock

Variables (1)BIT (2)Alliance (3)BIT and alliance
BLA (real) 152,011 (279,322) 154,929 (462,103) 152,229 (257,964)
GDP Per Capita Ratio 13,915* (8,121) 13,949 (12,286) 13,917* (8,322)
Unemployment 618.9 (935.3) 616.7 (903.1) 618.7 (926.5)
Government spending 25.02 (518.4) 22.65 (783.9) 24.85 (529.4)
Population (ln) 30,322 (18,958) 30,215 (21,685) 30,314* (18,404)
Imports (ln) 3,007 (1,875) 3,000 (1,941) 3,007 (1,847)
Exports (ln) 4,134** (1,976) 4,144 (2,935) 4,135** (2,004)
Polity scores difference 805.6 (2,733) 789.4 (2,971) 804.4 (2,629)
Year (time trend) −674.9 (1,515) −689.7 (2,440) −676.0 (1,418)
Euro Cen Asia*year −11.92 (904.8) −3.602 (1,334) −11.30 (845.8)
Latin Am and Carib*year −297.4 (1,301) −284.2 (2,037) −296.5 (1,198)
Mid East North Af*year 349.7 (802.2) 343.4 (1,400) 349.2 (800.9)
North America*year 15,663 (10,098) 15,653 (9,595) 15,662 (10,051)
South Asia*year −236.5 (1,295) −223.3 (2,069) −235.5 (1,196)
Sub-Sah Africa*year 47.64 (1,421) 62.25 (2,323) 48.73 (1,316)
Observations 1,685 1,685 1,685
Countries 213 213 213

Summary statistics

Obs. Mean Std. Dev. Min Max
Primary variables
Migrants 1,685 33,649.47 188,752 0 2,700,000
BLA-real 12,862 0.036 0.186 0 1
BLA-onset 12,862 0.043 0.203 0 1
BIT 12,921 0.072 0.258 0 1
Alliance 12,921 0.012 0.111 0 1
Controls
GDP Per Capita Phil. 59 1,000.579 850.895 156.704 3,102.713
GDP Per Capita Host 9,773 8,167.732 16,035.06 34.791 1,89,170.9
GDP Per Capita Ratio 9,733 7.072 11.571 0.088 117.737
GDP pc Ratio Ex.1 (ln) 12,921 0.946 1.471 −2.432 4.768
Unemployment 3,804 8.105 6.231 0.05 57
Unemployment Ex.2 12,921 8.639 6.312 0.05 57
Government spending 7,901 15.951 7.251 0 135.809
Government spending Ex.3 12,921 17.142 8.039 0 135.809
Population 12,807 24,050,417 100,978,845 3,893 1,392,730,000
Population Ex.4 (ln) 12,921 14.763 2.434 8.267 21.055
Imports 6,096 244.712 1,014.366 0.000019 21,394.27
Imports Ex.5 (ln) 12,921 −0.489 3.563 −10.871 9.971
Exports 6,977 169.576 866.987 2.001 13,918.86
Exports Ex.6 (ln) 12,921 −0.531 3.182 −13.122 9.541
Polity scores Phil. 58 3.207 6.722 −9 8
Polity scores host 8,306 0.998 7.409 −10 10
Polity scores absolute dif. 8,306 6.964 2.715 0 10
Polity scores dif. ex.7 12,921 6.873 2.441 0 10
Regional dummies
East Asia and Pacific 12,921 0.174 0.379 0 1
Europe and Central Asia 12,921 0.265 0.441 0 1
Latin America and Caribbean 12,921 0.196 0.397 0 1
Mid. East and Northern Africa 12,921 0.096 0.294 0 1
North America 12,921 0.014 0.116 0 1
South Asia 12,921 0.037 0.188 0 1
Sub Saharan Africa 12,921 0.219 0.414 0 1
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