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Income Elasticity of Child Labor: Do Cash Transfers have an Impact on the Poorest Children?


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Figure 1

Community Councils covered by Child Grant Programme (CGP) in Phase 1—Round 2.
Community Councils covered by Child Grant Programme (CGP) in Phase 1—Round 2.

Figure 2

Timeline of Child Grant Programme (CGP) (Phase 1—Round 2) evolution.
Timeline of Child Grant Programme (CGP) (Phase 1—Round 2) evolution.

Figure 3

Local regressions.
Local regressions.

Sample and sample attrition

MatchedNon-matched
StatusBaselineFollow-upFinal sampleBaseline onlyFollow-up onlyAttrition rate (%)
EligibleT74773270641265
C739674648912612
Total1,4861,4061,354132529
Non-eligibleT779401396383549
C789405401388449
Total1,568806797771449
Total3,0542,2122,1519036130

Balance analysis on eligible children at baseline

TreatmentControlDifference
Panel A: outcome variables
Child level
Work (all activities)0.320.290.03
Hours worked (all activities)5.995.260.73
Days worked (all activities)1.040.920.11
Farm work0.340.330.01
Hours worked (farm activities)6.786.040.74
Days worked (farm activities)1.171.080.09
Enrolled in school0.930.930.00
Homework/study outside school45.2345.53–0.30
Total school expenditures103.41127.93–24.52
School expenditure on fees30.4640.68–10.22
School expenditure on uniforms/shoes1.993.59–1.6
Panel B: covariates
Child sex0.490.50–0.02
Child age10.3510.49–0.14
Orphan child0.130.130.00
Household size6.065.700.37**
0–5 children present in the household0.560.520.04
Female household head0.510.55–0.04
Age of household head52.3952.81–0.42
Highest education among adults in the household7.737.490.24
Economic shock0.620.580.04
Expenditure per capita117.94125.78–7.84
Asset index–0.45–0.500.05

Impact of the Child Grant Programme (CGP)—OLS

(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)
WorkHoursDaysFarm workHours: farmDays: farmEnrolled at schoolTime to studySchool expendituresSchool expenditures: feesSchool expenditures: uniforms/shoes
Panel A
CGP-0.02-1.57-0.33*-0.02-1.80*-0.37*0.05***6.20**39.60-2.0341.71***
(0.035)(0.979)(0.172)(0.035)(0.949)(0.193)(0.018)(2.424)(35.671)(28.360)(6.845)
Panel B
CGP*1Q0.040.430.040.05-0.510.070.054.19-44.83-95.7552.61***
(0.058)(1.714)(0.345)(0.061)(1.712)(0.389)(0.030)(5.365)(79.592)(63.817)(15.085)
CGP*2Q-0.01-2.49-0.30-0.02-2.55-0.430.022.843.59-18.8534.44**
(0.052)(1.910)(0.311)(0.055)(2.327)(0.369)(0.033)(4.583)(53.716)(35.842)(16.921)
CGP*3Q0.01-1.19-0.300.01-0.80-0.29-0.0012.17**73.7743.9540.25**
(0.065)(1.829)(0.336)(0.078)(1.538)(0.361)(0.028)(5.691)(66.357)(56.732)(15.706)
CGP*4Q-0.15**-3.67**-0.91***-0.18**-3.83*-0.98***0.15***8.10*210.89***129.45**39.68**
(0.067)(1.766)(0.249)(0.068)(2.047)(0.280)(0.053)(4.638)(74.884)(51.977)(18.537)
Panel C
CGP*Age-0.00-0.16-0.01-0.00-0.09-0.010.02**0.28-5.42-2.43-1.60
(0.009)(0.309)(0.054)(0.010)(0.330)(0.061)(0.007)(1.194)(19.183)(14.379)(3.451)
CGP*Female-0.012.430.430.023.26*0.62*0.01-5.3221.0136.01-19.34
(0.047)(1.903)(0.344)(0.047)(1.759)(0.341)(0.033)(4.429)(85.712)(62.900)(14.015)
Observation1,9381,9381,9381,7341,7161,7171,9381,7071,7491,7471,740

Heterogeneous impacts—Quartiles of asset index (OLS)

(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(13)(14)(15)
WorkHoursDaysFarm workHours: farmDays: farmEnrolled at schoolTime to studySchool expendituresSchool expenditures: feesSchool expenditures: uniforms/shoes
CGP*1Q0.020.57-0.020.03-0.95-0.060.031.3968.7844.4328.90**
(0.067)(2.057)(0.289)(0.066)(1.972)(0.314)(0.060)(3.926)(51.670)(38.429)(13.470)
CGP*2Q-0.05-1.69-0.21-0.07-1.65-0.300.0013.41**18.60-26.2642.65**
(0.060)(1.756)(0.269)(0.060)(1.534)(0.296)(0.020)(6.185)(69.368)(49.089)(19.375)
CGP*3Q0.10-0.41-0.420.09-0.28-0.430.07***6.9228.52-0.5235.85**
(0.059)(1.630)(0.317)(0.062)(1.767)(0.331)(0.024)(4.875)(72.189)(48.429)(16.298)
CGP*4Q-0.14**-3.85**-0.69*-0.16***-3.63**-0.74*0.07**2.7728.14-18.2849.40**
(0.056)(1.703)(0.352)(0.059)(1.753)(0.376)(0.033)(4.247)(90.555)(63.279)(19.755)
Observation1,9671,9671,9671,7641,7441,7451,9671,7341,7771,7751,768

Probability to remain in the sample and quartiles of expenditure per capita

VariablesProbability to remain in the sample
1Q0.13
(0.090)
2Q–0.01
(0.083)
3Q0.06
(0.082)
HH size0.05***
(0.014)
Dependency ratio0.00***
(0.000)
One member household–0.65***
(0.236)
Double orphan in the household–0.04
(0.083)
Non resident head–0.10
(0.099)
Chronically ill member in the household–0.05
(0.061)
Savings–0.01
(0.061)
Livestock–0.10
(0.065)
Land0.19**
(0.095)
Asset index–0.01
(0.018)
nissa10.77***
(0.087)
nissa20.48***
(0.085)
nissa30.06
(0.145)
nissa4–0.13
(0.149)
Constant–0.50**
(0.206)

Beneficiaries’ perceptions and experience with the Child Grant Programme (CGP)

Percentage of household
Selection criteria for CGP
Household poverty64.32
Children in household15.5
Orphans in household14.77
Person responsible for CGP spending
Household head75.5
Other household member20.9
Children1.08
Primary use of last CGP payment
Food for household43.96
Food for children17.84
Shoes and clothing for children19.64
Education expenditures17.12

Impact on non-eligible children—OLS

(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)
WorkHoursDaysFarm workHours: farmDays: farmEnrolled at schoolTime to studySchool expendituresSchool expenditures: feesSchool expenditures: uniforms/shoes
Child Grant Programme-0.01-0.09-0.12-0.01-0.47-0.12-0.01-2.05-40.06-55.098.98
(0.05)(1.90)(0.24)(0.05)(1.81)(0.24)(0.02)(4.22)(80.05)(57.32)(21.52)
Observation799799799741724728798707742741739